Seoul risks being sidelined if US-NK talks resume, Victor Cha warns

Victor Cha warned Monday that Seoul could be sidelined if Washington resumes direct talks with North Korea, and urged President Lee Jae Myung to stay closely engaged with U.S. President Donald Trump. He said there is little evidence of formal diplomatic preparation between Washington and Pyongyang, making Trump and Kim Jong-un’s personal decisions especially important. Cha also called for stronger U.S.-Japan-Korea security cooperation and said South Korea should prepare for continued U.S. trade pressure.

Cha said there is currently no substantive interagency process underway in Washington or Pyongyang to prepare for dialogue.

He cited Shinzo Abe’s practice during Trump’s first term of staying closely engaged with the U.S. president whenever Trump met Kim Jong-un.

Cha said Trump and Lee appear to have developed a relatively good relationship.

He said renewed diplomacy with Pyongyang should be paired with stronger trilateral cooperation on missile defense and joint production of interceptors.

Cha argued that South Korea still has no substitute for its alliance with the United States in dealing with China and broader strategic pressure.

Published Sep 14, 2026 4:44 pm KST

Updated Sep 14, 2026 5:26 pm KST

Lee urged to maintain close ties with Trump as Korea has no strategic alternative to US alliance

Seo Jung-kun, left, Kyung Hee University professor, speaks during a forum titled “Changes in U.S. Security Strategy and Their Implications for the Korean Peninsula,” hosted by the Korea-America Association in Seoul, Monday. Victor Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, joined the panelists remotely on a screen. Korea Times photo by Park Ji-won

President Lee Jae Myung should maintain close communication with U.S. President Donald Trump to ensure Seoul is not sidelined if Washington resumes direct talks with North Korea, veteran Korea expert Victor Cha said Monday.

Cha, president of the Geopolitics and Foreign Policy Department at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed to former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s efforts during Trump’s first term to stay closely engaged with the U.S. president whenever Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“You remember Shinzo Abe during Trump 1.0. Every meeting that Trump had with Kim Jong-un, Shinzo Abe came to Washington to ensure that President Trump didn't sell out Japanese equities in any sort of deal with the North Korean leader,” Cha said during a forum titled “Changes in U.S. Security Strategy and Their Implications for the Korean Peninsula” hosted by the Korea-America Association. He joined the event virtually.

“I think it's very important for the South Korean president to think the same way about this,” he said, adding that Lee and Trump appear to have developed a relatively good relationship.

He said there is currently little evidence of formal diplomatic preparation between Washington and Pyongyang, including no substantive interagency process underway to prepare for dialogue. That makes the personal decisions of Trump and Kim particularly important, he said.

“It's entirely possible that the South Korean president should be able to speak freely with the U.S. president to make sure that South Korea is not cut out of this and that there is some wall for South Korea in the resumption of dialogue,” he said.

He warned that Kim may have little incentive to involve Seoul in renewed diplomacy. “Kim Jong-un would be happy to do all of this without engaging South Korea at all.”

Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in meeting Kim again, raising speculation that direct U.S.-North Korea diplomacy could resume despite the continued breakdown in inter-Korean relations, which have largely remained frozen since Kim declared relations between the two Koreas to be those of “two hostile states” in late 2023.

Cha said Pyongyang may eventually respond to Trump’s overtures, but is likely to wait for developments that could strengthen its negotiating position.

“I think they are going to bide their time and wait a little bit — certainly wait until after the Trump-Xi summit in September, and most likely wait until after the results of the U.S. midterm elections, which in Pyongyang's mind they may see as giving them a stronger hand.”

He also suggested what he described as a “cold peace” initiative, in which the U.S. considers “prioritizing dialogue to avoid miscalculation and escalation and threat reduction” with North Korea.

At the same time, Cha said renewed diplomacy with Pyongyang should be accompanied by stronger trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan.

“There are real opportunities right now to press the accelerator on U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral cooperation, on missile defense and on joint production of interceptors. In government, we always try to make lemonade out of the lemon and we really need to do that now,” he said.

An ATHENA-R reconnaissance aircraft taxis for takeoff at U.S. Army Garrison Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 18, during the South Korea-U.S. Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise. The U.S. Department of Defense scaled back the allies’ joint military exercise upon U.S. President Donald Trump's directives. Yonhap

Other Korean panelists were more skeptical about making concessions to encourage North Korea to return to talks, particularly amid concerns that Seoul could face what is often described as “Korea passing” — being bypassed in negotiations directly affecting the Korean Peninsula.

Hwang Tae-hee, a professor of political science and international studies at Yonsei University, said the current direction of diplomacy risked playing into Pyongyang’s hands.

“It is concerning that narratives are playing out exactly as North Korea wants. Setting aside the issue of ‘Korea passing,’ there is no one advocating for South Korea’s position and our government is being dragged along,” Hwang said, adding that he doubts that Seoul should sacrifice so much just to meet with North Korea's Kim.

Concerns also focused on Trump’s move to scale back South Korea-U.S. joint military exercises as part of efforts to create conditions for dialogue.

Choi Byung-hyuk, an adjunct senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and former deputy commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, raised concerns over scaling down joint drills exercises to resume talks with Pyongyang, which could weaken deterrence.

“It could send a dangerous signal to our main enemy — namely North Korea — that if they hold talks with Trump and manage things somehow, they can take it as a wrong message that it is possible to push for reductions in joint military exercises without even discussing denuclearization. This message could ultimately severely undermine our deterrence against North Korea.”

Trade weaponization concerns

Beyond security issues, Cha said South Korea should prepare for continued trade pressure from Washington while remaining firmly anchored in its alliance with the U.S.

He said both the United States and China have increasingly used trade as an instrument of strategic leverage, although he distinguished U.S. protectionist tariffs from what he described as China’s broader pattern of economic coercion.

“Every American ally in this region is dealing with the weaponization of trade by the two leading economic powers in the international system — the United States and China … I would not assume that the tariff chapter is closed,” he said, urging the U.S. to stop levvying tariffs on its allies.

Despite growing uncertainty over U.S. policy, he argued that South Korea still lacks a viable strategic alternative to its alliance with Washington.

“There really isn't an alternative,” Cha said. “On the China side, South Korea's best position vis-à-vis China is really based on a strong alliance with the United States. There is no substitute for that.”

维克托·查周一警告称，如果华盛顿恢复与朝鲜的直接对话，首尔可能会被边缘化。他敦促李在明总统与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普保持密切联系。查表示，华盛顿和平壤之间几乎没有进行正式外交准备的迹象，因此特朗普和金正恩的个人决定尤为重要。查还呼吁加强美日韩安全合作，并表示韩国应做好应对美国持续贸易压力的准备。

车先生表示，目前华盛顿和平壤方面都没有启动任何实质性的跨部门对话筹备程序。

他引用了安倍晋三在特朗普第一任期内的做法，即每当特朗普与金正恩会面时，安倍都会与美国总统保持密切联系。

查表示，特朗普和李似乎已经建立了相对良好的关系。

他表示，重启与平壤的外交努力，应与加强三方在导弹防御和联合生产拦截弹方面的合作相结合。

车先生认为，在应对中国和更广泛的战略压力方面，韩国仍然没有办法替代与美国的联盟。

发布于2026年9月14日下午4:44（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年9月14日下午5:26（韩国标准时间）

李明博敦促韩国与特朗普保持密切关系，因为韩国在战略上没有除美韩联盟之外的其他选择。

周一，庆熙大学教授徐正坤（左）在首尔举行的由韩美协会主办的题为“美国安全战略的变化及其对朝鲜半岛的影响”的论坛上发表讲话。战略与国际研究中心地缘政治与外交政策部主任维克多·车通过视频连线参与了讨论。照片由《韩国时报》朴智媛拍摄。

资深韩国问题专家维克多·查周一表示，韩国总统李在明应与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普保持密切沟通，以确保如果华盛顿恢复与朝鲜的直接对话，首尔不会被边缘化。

战略与国际研究中心地缘政治与外交政策部主任车先生指出，在特朗普的第一任期内，每当特朗普与朝鲜领导人金正恩会面时，日本前首相安倍晋三都会努力与美国总统保持密切联系。

“你们还记得特朗普第一任期时的安倍晋三吗？特朗普每次与金正恩会晤，安倍都会亲自前往华盛顿，确保特朗普总统不会在与朝鲜领导人的任何交易中牺牲日本的股票，”车先生在韩美协会主办的题为“美国安全战略的转变及其对朝鲜半岛的影响”的论坛上说道。他以线上方式参加了此次活动。

“我认为韩国总统在这件事上持有同样的看法非常重要，”他说道，并补充说，李明博和特朗普似乎已经建立了相对良好的关系。

他表示，目前几乎没有证据表明华盛顿和平壤之间正在进行正式的外交准备工作，包括没有启动任何实质性的跨部门对话筹备程序。他指出，这使得特朗普和金正恩的个人决定显得尤为重要。

他说：“韩国总统完全有可能与美国总统自由对话，以确保韩国不会被排除在外，并确保韩国在恢复对话方面不会遇到任何阻碍。”

他警告说，金正恩可能缺乏让首尔参与重启外交的动力。“金正恩很乐意在完全不与韩国接触的情况下完成这一切。”

特朗普多次表示有兴趣再次与金正恩会面，这引发了人们的猜测，尽管朝韩关系持续恶化，但美朝直接外交仍有​​可能恢复。自金正恩在2023年底宣布朝韩关系为“两个敌对国家”以来，朝韩关系基本上一直处于冻结状态。

车先生表示，平壤最终可能会对特朗普的示好做出回应，但可能会等待能够增强其谈判地位的事态发展。

“我认为他们会按兵不动，再等等——肯定会等到9月份的特朗普-习近平峰会之后，而且很可能会等到美国中期选举结果出来之后，平壤方面认为，美国中期选举的结果会让他们更有优势。”

他还提出了他所谓的“冷和平”倡议，即美国考虑“优先与朝鲜对话，以避免误判和局势升级，并降低威胁”。

与此同时，车先生表示，与平壤重启外交的同时，韩国、美国和日本之间也应加强三边安全合作。

“现在正是加快美日韩三边合作、导弹防御合作以及联合生产拦截弹的良机。政府总是力求化腐朽为神奇，现在更需要这样做。”他说道。

8月18日，在韩美“乙支自由之盾”联合军演期间，一架ATHENA-R侦察机在京畿道平泽市的汉弗莱斯美军基地滑行准备起飞。根据美国总统特朗普的指示，美国国防部缩减了此次盟军联合军演的规模。（韩联社）

其他韩国专家组成员对做出让步以鼓励朝鲜重返谈判桌持怀疑态度，尤其是在担心首尔可能会面临通常被称为“朝鲜被排除在外”的情况——即在直接影响朝鲜半岛的谈判中被绕过。

延世大学政治学和国际研究教授黄泰熙表示，目前的外交方向有可能正中平壤的下怀。

黄说：“令人担忧的是，事态的发展完全按照朝鲜的意愿进行。撇开‘韩国通过’的问题不谈，没有人为韩国的立场发声，我们的政府被牵着鼻子走。”他还补充说，他怀疑首尔是否应该仅仅为了与朝鲜领导人金正恩会面而做出如此大的牺牲。

人们还关注到特朗普为创造对话条件而缩减韩美联合军事演习规模的举措。

韩国峨山政策研究院兼职高级研究员、前韩国-美国联合部队司令部副司令崔炳赫对缩减联合演习规模以恢复与平壤的对话表示担忧，认为这可能会削弱威慑力。

“这可能会向我们的主要敌人——朝鲜——发出一个危险的信号：如果他们与特朗普举行会谈并设法解决问题，他们可能会误以为我们可以在不讨论无核化问题的情况下推动减少联合军事演习。这一信号最终可能会严重削弱我们对朝鲜的威慑力。”

贸易武器化问题

除了安全问题之外，车先生表示，韩国应该做好准备应对来自华盛顿的持续贸易压力，同时坚定地留在与美国的联盟关系中。

他表示，美国和中国都越来越多地将贸易作为战略筹码，但他区分了美国的保护主义关税与他所描述的中国更广泛的经济胁迫模式。

“该地区的每一个美国盟友都在应对国际体系中两大经济体——美国和中国——将贸易武器化的局面……我不会认为关税篇章已经结束，”他说道，并敦促美国停止对其盟友征收关税。

尽管美国政策的不确定性日益增加，但他认为，韩国仍然缺乏除与华盛顿结盟之外的可行战略替代方案。

“确实没有其他选择，”车先生说。“在对华关系上，韩国对华最有利的地位实际上是建立在与美国的牢固联盟之上的。这一点无可替代。”