Carney pitches Canada to global investors amid US trade war

Hundreds of investors overseeing nearly $120 trillion in assets will gather in Toronto for the Canada Investment Summit.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is positioning Canada as a great investment opportunity for foreign investors [File: Chris Tanouye/Reuters]

For decades, one of Canada’s biggest selling points to foreign investors was its access to the world’s largest economy next door.

Prime Minister Mark Carney is now trying to sell something bigger — to bet on Canada itself.

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On Monday and Tuesday, hundreds of global investors will gather in Toronto for the Canada Investment Summit . The invitation-only meeting will bring some of the world’s largest pension and sovereign wealth funds and asset managers together with corporate executives, Canadian premiers and federal officials.

Carney, a former central banker with deep ties to the global investment world, wants them to put money into everything from mines and pipelines to ports, artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing. It is part of a much bigger push to catalyse $1 trillion in investment in Canada over the next five years, with about $280bn in public investment and government incentives to help draw in private and institutional capital.

The summit comes just days after another escalation in Canada’s trade war with the United States which has been ongoing since President Donald Trump started his second term and unleashed a wave of tariffs across the world, including on Canada, one of its historically closest allies.

Relations have ruptured as Trump has repeatedly referred to Canada as the 51st state of the US and Carney as its “governor”. The threats are particularly damaging to Canada which, pre-tariff, sent nearly 80 percent of its exports to its southern neighbour.

After talks collapsed last month, Washington imposed levies of 50 percent on about US$20bn worth of Canadian goods, prompting Ottawa to impose retaliatory tariffs of 15 to 50 percent on a similar value of US imports.

While the two sides have been negotiating, Carney has also been travelling the world to shore up relations and re-start or beef up trade ties, efforts that are bearing some fruit in Toronto with the summit.

“Carney is trying to turn a period of external pressure and uncertainty caused by the Trump trade war into an affirmative agenda,” said Vina Nadjibulla, cofounder and CEO of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft, a non-partisan policy think tank in Canada. “Build more at home, diversify Canada’s economic relationships abroad and attract the capital needed to do both.”

While the uncertainty of the trade war makes Canada a harder sell in some ways, it becomes a more compelling one at the same time.

“It cuts both ways,” Nadjibulla said. Investors may be wary of projects that depend heavily on the US market. But the turmoil also gives Carney a chance to sell Canada as “a relatively stable, rules-based jurisdiction” in an increasingly volatile world.

Carney has pulled in a large audience for that pitch. Getting roughly 300 major global investors focused on Canada for two days is unprecedented and a political win in itself, Nadjibulla said.

But getting them into the room is the easy part.

“The summit can open doors and create relationships,” she said. “Success will ultimately depend on how many of those conversations turn into serious investment, financing and projects that actually get built.”

What is Carney selling?

He is making the case that Canada has a lot for investors to bet on beyond its access to the US, from energy to critical minerals to skilled workers to connections to markets around the world. Through trade agreements with 51 countries, Canadian businesses have preferential access to 1.5 billion consumers around the world, the government said in a news statement ahead of the summit.

“We’re trusted, because we’re reliable and because we have what the world wants,” Carney said on Sunday. “That’s why the world is coming to our door.”

A leaked prospectus prepared for the summit lays out 167 potential investments across energy, mining, ports, transportation, technology and advanced manufacturing.

They range from satellite technology to some enormous infrastructure projects, including a proposed oil pipeline from Alberta to British Columbia’s coast.

But the list is heavily weighted towards resources and energy. Minerals and metals alone account for nearly 38 percent of the projects, as per Nadjibulla’s calculations. Add energy and power infrastructure and the share rises to almost 70 percent.

“The summit is fundamentally about financing the physical productive capacity of the Canadian economy,” she said, pointing to mines, processing, energy generation, export infrastructure, ports and manufacturing.

Not all of the projects, however, are ready for investment. Some of those on offer are fully permitted, while others are still at the concept or feasibility stage.

“Some are quite large and expensive and are unlikely to be ready for prime time,” said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, a policy nonprofit.

Canada also has to prove it can build

For investors, getting major projects to that point has long been a sticking point.

Ziemba pointed to lengthy regulatory reviews, particularly for projects that need both federal and provincial approval.

Nadjibulla similarly cited “long and uncertain approval processes” and questions about whether projects can move “from announcement to execution”.

“Investors will want to see a credible pipeline, faster and more predictable permitting, policy stability, clearer revenue models and better coordination across provincial and federal jurisdictions,” Nadjibulla said.

Carney is trying to convince them that things are changing. His government has created a Major Projects Office to speed up approvals for projects it considers to be in the national interest, alongside a “one project, one review” approach aimed at reducing federal-provincial overlap.

The summit is a chance to show investors how that will work, Ziemba said. “But this is still early days.”

What does all of this mean for Canadians?

Even if Carney gets more of these projects financed and built, a bigger debate remains over who ultimately stands to benefit. In an interview with Democracy Now, Avi Lewis, leader of Canada’s New Democratic Party, criticised the prime minister for “selling our airports and our ports and privatising more of our economy to the benefit of foreign investors”.

That debate will be playing out just outside the summit. Labour, Indigenous, housing and climate groups are planning a Monday rally under the banner “The Many vs. the Money,” arguing that Canada’s economic future should not be shaped primarily by corporate executives and global investors.

The trade war has been shifting Canada’s investment focus from manufacturing and other industries built around the North American market to ports, pipelines and logistics that can help Canadian resources reach new markets.

Ziemba also pointed to another potential trade-off – those sectors require a lot of capital without necessarily creating the same number of jobs. That “may limit the benefits to Canadians looking to replace the US-integrated sectors,” she said.

Even if there are any major announcements this week, they will only tell part of the story.

Ziemba said she will be watching how much investors actually commit, the timelines and “clarity on who pays”.

“The summit helps with the first problem, showing investors what is available,” Nadjibulla said. “But execution will determine long-term success and whether the capital actually arrives.”

数百名投资者将齐聚多伦多参加加拿大投资峰会，他们管理的资产总额近 120 万亿美元。

加拿大总理马克·卡尼正将加拿大定位为外国投资者的绝佳投资机会。[图片：克里斯·塔努耶/路透社]

几十年来，加拿大吸引外国投资者的最大卖点之一就是它毗邻世界最大的经济体。

总理马克·卡尼现在试图推销一种更宏大的东西——押注加拿大本身。

加拿大经济第二季度强劲复苏（共四项，此为第一项），但未来仍将面临美国关税的阴影。

列表 2/4：由于美国和加拿大陷入贸易战，人们对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧。

美加贸易战的输家（共4个）之3

庞巴迪公司计划在美国招聘500名新员工，尽管特朗普发出威胁

周一和周二，数百名全球投资者将齐聚多伦多，参加加拿大投资峰会。此次仅限受邀人士参加的会议将汇聚一些全球最大的养老基金、主权财富基金和资产管理公司，以及企业高管、加拿大各省省长和联邦官员。

卡尼曾任央行行长，与全球投资界关系密切，他希望投资者将资金投入到从矿业、管道到港口、人工智能和先进制造业等各个领域。这是加拿大未来五年内吸引1万亿美元投资的宏伟计划的一部分，其中包括约2800亿美元的公共投资和政府激励措施，以吸引私人和机构资本。

此次峰会召开前几天，加拿大与美国的贸易战再次升级。这场贸易战自唐纳德·特朗普总统开始其第二个任期以来一直持续，特朗普在全球范围内掀起了一波关税浪潮，其中包括对加拿大——美国历史上最亲密的盟友之一——征收关税。

由于特朗普多次将加拿大称为美国的第51个州，并将卡尼称为其“州长”，两国关系已彻底破裂。这些威胁对加拿大造成了尤其严重的损害，因为在加征关税之前，加拿大近80%的出口都销往了这个南方邻国。

上个月谈判破裂后，华盛顿对价值约 200 亿美元的加拿大商品征收了 50% 的关税，这促使渥太华对价值相近的美国进口商品征收了 15% 至 50% 的报复性关税。

在双方进行谈判的同时，卡尼也奔走于世界各地，以巩固关系、重启或加强贸易联系，这些努力在多伦多峰会上取得了一些成果。

加拿大无党派政策智库“战略治国中心”联合创始人兼首席执行官维娜·纳吉布拉表示：“卡尼正试图将特朗普贸易战造成的外部压力和不确定性转化为积极的施政纲领。具体措施包括：加强国内建设，实现加拿大海外经济关系多元化，并吸引实现这两方面目标所需的资本。”

虽然贸易战的不确定性在某些方面使加拿大更难吸引投资者，但同时也使其更具吸引力。

“这有利有弊，”纳吉布拉说道。投资者可能会对严重依赖美国市场的项目持谨慎态度。但这场动荡也给了卡尼一个机会，让他可以在日益动荡的世界中，将加拿大宣传为“一个相对稳定、以规则为基础的司法管辖区”。

卡尼的推介会吸引了大量听众。纳吉布拉表示，能让近300位全球主要投资者在两天内将目光聚焦加拿大，这史无前例，本身就是一次政治胜利。

但把他们弄进房间却是最简单的部分。

“峰会可以打开机遇之门，建立人脉关系，”她说。“最终的成功取决于有多少对话能够转化为切实的投资、融资和实际建设的项目。”

卡尼到底在卖什么？

他力证加拿大除了拥有进入美国的渠道外，还有许多其他优势值得投资者投资，包括能源、关键矿产、技术工人以及与世界各地市场的联系。加拿大政府在峰会前发布的新闻稿中表示，通过与51个国家签署的贸易协定，加拿大企业可以优先进入全球15亿消费者市场。

卡尼周日表示：“我们值得信赖，因为我们可靠，也因为我们拥有世界所需要的。这就是为什么世界各地的企业都来找我们。”

一份泄露的峰会招股说明书列出了能源、采矿、港口、交通运输、技术和先进制造业等领域的 167 项潜在投资。

这些项目涵盖了从卫星技术到一些庞大的基础设施项目，其中包括拟建的从阿尔伯塔省到不列颠哥伦比亚省海岸的输油管道。

但这份清单严重侧重于资源和能源领域。据纳吉布拉计算，仅矿产和金属项目就占到近38%。如果加上能源和电力基础设施，这一比例将上升到近70%。

“峰会的根本目的在于为加拿大经济的实体生产能力提供资金，”她说道，并指出矿业、加工业、能源生产、出口基础设施、港口和制造业。

然而，并非所有项目都已准备好投资。部分项目已获得所有必要许可，而另一些项目仍处于概念或可行性研究阶段。

“有些项目规模相当大，造价也相当昂贵，不太可能赶上黄金时段，”政策非营利组织“新美国安全中心”的兼职高级研究员雷切尔·齐姆巴 (Rachel Ziemba) 说。

加拿大还必须证明它有能力建造

对于投资者而言，如何让大型项目推进到那个阶段一直是个难题。

Ziemba 指出，监管审查流程漫长，特别是对于需要联邦和省级双重批准的项目而言。

纳吉布拉也提到了“漫长且不确定的审批流程”，以及项目能否“从宣布到执行”的问题。

“投资者希望看到可靠的项目储备、更快更可预测的审批流程、政策稳定性、更清晰的收入模式以及省和联邦管辖区之间更好的协调，”纳吉布拉说。

卡尼正试图说服他们，情况正在发生变化。他的政府设立了重大项目办公室，以加快审批其认为符合国家利益的项目，同时推行“一个项目，一次审查”的做法，旨在减少联邦和省级政府之间的职能重叠。

Ziemba表示，此次峰会是向投资者展示这种模式如何运作的机会。“但这仍处于早期阶段。”

这一切对加拿大人意味着什么？

即便卡尼能够为更多此类项目筹集资金并使其建成，但最终谁将从中受益仍然是一个更大的争论点。加拿大新民主党领袖艾维·刘易斯在接受“现在就民主”节目采访时批评总理“为了外国投资者的利益，出售我们的机场和港口，并将更多经济领域私有化”。

这场辩论将在峰会场外继续上演。劳工组织、原住民组织、住房组织和气候组织计划于周一举行一场名为“大众对抗金钱”的集会，他们认为加拿大的经济未来不应主要由企业高管和全球投资者决定。

贸易战已经将加拿大的投资重点从制造业和其他围绕北美市场建立的产业转移到港口、管道和物流领域，这些领域可以帮助加拿大资源进入新市场。

Ziemba还指出了另一个潜在的权衡因素——这些行业需要大量资本，但未必能创造同等数量的就业岗位。她说，这“可能会限制那些希望取代美国一体化行业的加拿大人所能获得的收益”。

即使本周有任何重大消息公布，也只能说明部分情况。

Ziemba表示，她将密切关注投资者实际投入的资金数额、时间表以及“谁来付款”的“清晰度”。

纳吉布拉表示：“峰会有助于解决第一个问题，让投资者了解有哪些投资机会。但执行力将决定长期的成功以及资金是否真的能够到位。”