Why the Houthi advance towards Yemen’s Marib, Taiz matters

Marib is home to Yemen’s oil and gas sector. Whoever controls it secures major economic gains. Taiz’s location makes it strategically critical.

A member of the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces, including National Army and Taiz Axis forces, mans a turret mounted on the back of a pick-up truck at a checkpoint along the Kadha front line west of Taiz in western Yemen [AFP]

Yemen’s government forces have carried out air attacks against the Iran-backed Houthis to repel their advances, as the rebel group has been gaining ground in government-held positions in the past week.

The focus of the fighting is now shifting to the region of Marib – the government’s last remaining stronghold in the north and a major oil and gas hub. Should the Houthis gain control of it, it could decisively turn the tide of the war in their favour, say analysts.

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Heated battles are also taking place in western Taiz, on the western coast, where reports suggest government forces, supported by Saudi Arabia, are now on the counteroffensive after losing some ground there last week. A video released on Monday by the Yemeni army purports to show Houthi positions and vehicles being bombed there.

Trapped in the middle are the civilians. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has reported that more than 85,000 have been forced to flee their homes since the beginning of September. More than 2,000 have fled into Djibouti’s northern shores.

So why does Marib matter?

It is the last remaining stronghold of anti-Houthi forces in northern Yemen. A Houthi expansion there would threaten government presence and weaken its leverage in the north.

Marib also hosts the country’s largest gas and oil fields, meaning that whoever controls it holds some of Yemen’s most important energy infrastructure and a potentially crucial source of revenue.

“Dominating Marib’s oil and gas resources has been a Houthi goal for more than a decade. Without facing a crushing defeat in Marib, they would keep fighting to achieve that goal,” Saddam al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, told Al Jazeera . Should they gain control of it, the group could earn great leverage to negotiate favourable terms in any future mediation effort.

A Houthi capture of Marib would be a “watershed moment” in terms of the country’s internal dynamics, said Adam Baron, a fellow at the Future Security Program of the New America think tank. Still, he said, it will be a tough fight as government forces will see this battle as an existential war. “Losing Marib would be an absolute crushing defeat” for the forces of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, he added.

Marib is also geographically significant because it lies on the easiest road that runs from northern Yemen to Shabwa Governorate in the south – a seafront on the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea – and al-Mahra Governorate.

The optics of a win in Marib would also be a powerful propaganda tool for the Houthis, helping them convince many Yemenis that the group is on a roll militarily and is poised for even greater victories, said Nabil Hetari, a Yemeni writer and human rights activist.

There is also a humanitarian dimension. Over the years, the city has been welcoming displaced people from areas which have fallen under Houthi control since the fall of the capital Sanaa in 2014. According to IOM figures from 2023, Yemen recorded nearly 2.8 million internally displaced people, more than half of whom (58 percent) are in Marib.

“All the parties involved in the battle are focused on Marib as a potential decider in the nature of their exit from this war,” said Hetari.

And why does Taiz matter?

The strategic importance of Taiz lies in its geography.

The governorate forms a bridge between the Houthi-held north and the government-held south and the Red Sea coast. Thus, whoever controls it gains the upper hand in the movement of weapons and supplies between the interior and the southern port city of Aden.

Taiz also carries considerable political weight. One of Yemen’s largest population centres, the city became an important centre of resistance to the Houthis after they seized Sanaa in 2014 and has endured years of fighting and restrictions on access. A major Houthi breakthrough there would therefore carry symbolic significance far beyond the territory captured.

Its western coast also stretches towards Mocha, a historic town that the Houthis captured last week, and towards the Bab al-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.

Bab al-Mandeb is one of the world’s most important shipping routes. The 20km- (12-mile-)wide waterway lies between Yemen and Djibouti, connecting Europe to Asia. Before fighting resumed, about 12 percent of global trade passed through it. In recent days, the Houthis have grabbed most of Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including Mayyun (Perim) Island, which lies in the strait.

“The Houthis seek to move closer to this vital waterway to threaten maritime traffic. Such a move aims to keep the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb under the influence of Iran and use them as leverage against regional and international powers,” said Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni analyst and author. “This is a strategy Tehran has been pursuing for years.”

This is a serious concern for Saudi Arabia, which has been relying on the Red Sea route to export its oil, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz.

马里卜是也门石油和天然气产业的中心。谁控制了马里卜，谁就能获得巨大的经济利益。塔伊兹的地理位置使其具有重要的战略意义。

在也门西部塔伊兹以西的卡达前线的一个检查站，一名受沙特支持的也门政府军（包括国民军和塔伊兹轴心部队）成员操作安装在皮卡车后部的炮塔。[法新社]

也门政府军对伊朗支持的胡塞武装发动空袭，以击退其推进。过去一周，胡塞武装在政府控制的阵地中不断取得进展。

目前战局焦点正转移至马里卜地区——这是政府军在北部最后的据点，也是重要的石油和天然气枢纽。分析人士指出，如果胡塞武装控制该地区，将可能彻底扭转战局，使其向有利于他们的方向发展。

沙特阿拉伯称，胡塞武装向吉赞地区发射炮弹，造成两人受伤，一座清真寺受损。

也门胡塞武装占领红海战略要地马云岛（共3条记录，此为第2条）

列表 3/3：随着战事升级，超过 2000 名也门人逃往吉布提

在西海岸的塔伊兹西部，激烈的战斗也在进行。有报道称，在沙特阿拉伯的支持下，政府军在上周失去一些阵地后，目前正在发起反攻。也门军方周一发布的一段视频显示，胡塞武装的阵地和车辆遭到轰炸。

被困在冲突中心的是平民百姓。国际移民组织（IOM）报告称，自9月初以来，已有超过8.5万人被迫逃离家园。其中超过2000人逃往吉布提北部海岸。

那么，马里布为何如此重要？

它是也门北部反胡塞武装的最后一个据点。胡塞武装若在此扩张，将威胁政府军的存在，并削弱其在北部的影响力。

马里卜还拥有也门最大的天然气和石油田，这意味着谁控制了马里卜，谁就掌握了也门一些最重要的能源基础设施和潜在的关键收入来源。

“控制马里卜的石油和天然气资源一直是胡塞武装十多年来的目标。如果不在马里卜遭遇惨败，他们就会继续为实现这一目标而战，”也门政治评论员萨达姆·胡莱比告诉半岛电视台。如果他们控制了马里卜，该组织将在未来的任何调解努力中获得巨大的谈判筹码，从而争取更有利的条件。

新美国智库未来安全项目研究员亚当·巴伦表示，胡塞武装若攻占马里卜，将是也门内部局势的一个“分水岭”。但他同时指出，这将是一场艰苦的战斗，因为政府军会将这场战役视为生死之战。“对于也门国际公认的政府军而言，失去马里卜将是一场彻底的毁灭性失败，”他补充道。

马里卜在地理上也具有重要意义，因为它位于从也门北部通往南部沙布瓦省（亚丁湾和阿拉伯海沿岸）和迈赫拉省的最便捷道路上。

也门作家兼人权活动家纳比勒·赫塔里表示，马里卜的胜利对胡塞武装来说也是一个强有力的宣传工具，可以帮助他们说服许多也门人，该组织在军事上势如破竹，并准备取得更大的胜利。

此外，还存在人道主义层面的问题。多年来，自2014年首都萨那陷落后，马里卜一直接收着来自胡塞武装控制区的流离失所者。根据国际移民组织2023年的数据，也门境内流离失所者人数接近280万，其中超过一半（58%）居住在马里卜。

“所有参与这场战斗的各方都将马里卜视为决定他们如何结束这场战争的潜在因素，”赫塔里说。

泰兹为何如此重要？

塔伊兹的战略重要性在于其地理位置。

该省是胡塞武装控制的北部地区与政府控制的南部地区及红海沿岸之间的桥梁。因此，谁控制了该省，谁就能在内陆地区与南部港口城市亚丁之间的武器和物资运输中占据优势。

塔伊兹也具有相当大的政治影响力。作为也门最大的人口中心之一，该市在2014年胡塞武装占领萨那后，成为抵抗胡塞武装的重要据点，并经历了多年的战乱和出入限制。因此，胡塞武装若在塔伊兹取得重大突破，其象征意义将远远超出所占领的领土范围。

其西海岸还延伸至摩卡，这是一座历史名城，上周被胡塞武装占领；以及曼德海峡，这是连接红海和亚丁湾的咽喉要道。

曼德海峡是世界上最重要的航道之一。这条宽20公里（12英里）的水道位于也门和吉布提之间，连接着欧洲和亚洲。在战火重燃之前，全球约12%的贸易都要经过这里。近日，胡塞武装占领了也门红海沿岸的大部分地区，包括位于海峡中的马云岛（又称佩里姆岛）。

“胡塞武装企图逼近这条至关重要的水道，以威胁海上交通。此举旨在将霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡置于伊朗的控制之下，并以此作为对抗地区和国际大国的筹码，”也门分析人士兼作家福阿德·穆塞德表示。“这是德黑兰多年来一直在推行的战略。”

这对沙特阿拉伯来说是一个严重的问题，因为沙特阿拉伯一直依赖红海航线出口石油，绕过霍尔木兹海峡。