Marin’s F-18 proposal fizzles, as a new Finnish NATO tack emerges

HELSINKI — Finland’s center-left government is under fire from opposition leaders after Prime Minister Sanna Marin suggested Finland could donate an unspecified number of the Finnish Air Force’s (FAF) Boeing F/A-18C Hornet jets to aid Ukraine’s defense.

The service is primed to decommission 62 Hornets jets in its multirole frontline fighter fleet between 2025 and 2030. In December 2021, the FAF decided to spend $9.4 billion on a deal to procure 64 F-35s from Lockheed Martin to replace the aging Hornets.

Opposition leaders and officials expressed concern that Marin’s surprise proposal, made during a weekend visit to Kyiv, was not discussed in advance with her coalition partners, opposition party leaders or FAF chiefs.

The impact and ripple effect of Marin’s comments happened as President Sauli Niinistö met, on March 12, with the Ministerial Committee on Foreign and Security Policy to discuss the status of Finland’s entry application to NATO. Government officials here have been in negotiations with Turkey and Hungary, the two remaining alliance states that have yet to ratify Finland’s and Sweden’s membership bid.

The meeting on the accession process followed trilateral talks between Finland, Sweden and Turkey in Brussels on March 9.

The gateway to Sweden’s and Finland’s accession to NATO is complicated by Ankara’s claim that the two non-aligned Nordic states have not done enough in the way of commitments to fight terrorism and restoring arms exports to Turkey.

Domestic tensions over the perceived slow pace of its application approval is causing more political leaders in Finland to review a “side-by-side jump” scenario with Sweden into NATO.

The two Nordic states presented their bids to join the alliance in May 2022, in the months after Russia invaded Ukraine.

“Our information from Turkey is that Finland satisfies the conditions Ankara imposed to obtain its support for our membership application, but that further negotiations are necessary with Sweden,” said Pekka Haavisto (Green Party), Finland’s foreign affairs minister.

Finland’s new position suggests that if Turkey were to ratify the country’s application but defer or block Sweden, Helsinki would not withdraw its application.

Oscar Stenström, the head of Sweden’s NATO accession delegation, said that while some constructive advancements were made in meeting Ankara’s demands, no significant progress is expected before Turkey’s parliamentary and presidential elections on May 14.

Finland and Sweden hope to secure application approval from Turkey before the alliance’s July summit in Vilnius.

Although Hungary supports NATO membership for Finland and Sweden, the Budapest government has yet to set a date to ratify the applications of both states. Hungary has indicated that the applications might be ratified before the end of March, possibly as early as March 20.

Reacting to Marin’s visit to Kyiv, opposition leaders raised fears the warplane saga could further complicate Finland’s already fragile NATO talks with Turkey.

Petteri Orpo, the leader of the National Coalition Party (NCP), said the prime minister’s comments were “ill-considered” at a time when Finland needs to negotiate in good faith with Ankara and maintain a foreign and security policy that is both “transparent and unambiguous.”

“Finland’s foreign and security policy cannot be managed by going solo,” he added. “Her comments can be interpreted as a promise, and this is concerning given that Finland is in a delicate position in its foreign relations, and especially in our NATO accession ambitions,” Orpo said.

Marin made her comments at a media briefing in Kyiv. The prime minister said Finland was open to the possibility of providing Hornets to Ukraine. “There can certainly be a discussion about fighter jets. Other countries are examining their own capacities to deliver this kind of military support. I think this could also be discussed in Finland,” said Marin.

Juha-Matti Ylitalo, the Deputy Director of the Finnish Defence Forces Logistics Command, raised doubts that Finland had the capacity to supply Hornets to Ukraine based on the aging condition of the aircraft and high maintenance costs.

The logistics command oversaw the HX fighter procurement program that resulted in the F-35 pick, a process that took six years.

“There isn’t a lot left in the Hornets as regards their structural life. It’s unlikely they can deliver a top level competitive performance in to the 2030s,” said Ylitalo.

Finland’s Defense Minister, Antti Kaikkonen, conceded he had no “advance knowledge” about Marin’s Hornet statement, adding that the FAF would not currently be in a position to reduce its capability by donating the warplanes until replacement F-35s are in place by 2025.

“The Hornets we have are still needed, and will be for several years to come” said Kaikkonen.

Marin’s comments caused surprise to Finland’s security partners in Europe and the United States, said Mika Aaltola, Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.

“Finland’s policy line on foreign matters needs to always be clear. It would have been wise if the prime minister had communicated with our cooperation partners before making the Hornet remarks,” Aaltola said.

Aaltola is supportive of a Finnish strategy to separate Finland’s and Sweden’s membership applications. “Finland should communicate its ability to separate the applications because they’re politically tied to one another,” he said.

Gerard O'Dwyer is the Scandinavian affairs correspondent for Defense News.

赫尔辛基——芬兰总理桑娜·马林暗示芬兰可能会捐赠数量不详的芬兰空军波音F/A-18C“大黄蜂”战斗机以援助乌克兰国防，此举引发了反对派领导人的强烈抨击。

空军计划在 2025 年至 2030 年间退役其多用途前线战斗机机队中的 62 架 F-18“大黄蜂”战斗机。2021 年 12 月，澳大利亚空军决定斥资 94 亿美元从洛克希德·马丁公司采购 64 架 F-35 战斗机，以取代老旧的 F-18“大黄蜂”战斗机。

反对派领导人和官员表示担忧，马林在周末访问基辅期间提出的这一出人意料的提议，事先并未与她的联盟伙伴、反对党领导人或联邦武装部队负责人进行讨论。

马林的言论产生的影响和连锁反应，正值芬兰总统绍利·尼尼斯托于3月12日与外交与安全政策部长级委员会会面，讨论芬兰加入北约的申请进展之际。芬兰政府官员一直在与土耳其和匈牙利进行谈判，这两个联盟成员国目前尚未批准芬兰和瑞典的入盟申请。

在3月9日芬兰、瑞典和土耳其在布鲁塞尔举行三方会谈之后，召开了关于入盟进程的会议。

安卡拉方面声称，瑞典和芬兰这两个不结盟的北欧国家在打击恐怖主义和恢复对土耳其的武器出口方面做得不够，这使得两国加入北约的进程变得复杂。

由于芬兰加入北约的申请审批速度被认为过慢，国内的紧张局势导致芬兰的更多政治领导人开始考虑与瑞典“并肩跳入”北约的方案。

在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后的几个月里，这两个北欧国家于 2022 年 5 月提出了加入该联盟的申请。

芬兰外交部长佩卡·哈维斯托（绿党）表示：“我们从土耳其得到的消息是，芬兰满足了安卡拉为获得其对我们入盟申请的支持而提出的条件，但还需要与瑞典进行进一步谈判。”

芬兰的新立场表明，如果土耳其批准芬兰的申请，但推迟或阻止瑞典，赫尔辛基将不会撤回其申请。

瑞典北约入盟代表团团长奥斯卡·斯滕斯特伦表示，虽然在满足安卡拉的要求方面取得了一些建设性进展，但在5月14日土耳其议会和总统选举之前，预计不会取得重大进展。

芬兰和瑞典希望在7月于维尔纽斯举行的联盟峰会之前获得土耳其的申请批准。

尽管匈牙利支持芬兰和瑞典加入北约，但布达佩斯政府尚未确定批准两国入盟申请的日期。匈牙利方面表示，可能会在3月底前批准这些申请，最早可能在3月20日。

针对马林访问基辅一事，反对派领导人表示担忧，认为战机事件可能会进一步加剧芬兰与土耳其之间本已脆弱的北约谈判的复杂性。

国家联合党（NCP）领导人佩特里·奥尔波表示，在芬兰需要与安卡拉进行真诚谈判，并维持“透明且明确”的外交和安全政策之际，总理的言论是“欠考虑的”。

“芬兰的外交和安全政策不能单打独斗，”他补充道。“她的言论可以被解读为一种承诺，考虑到芬兰在外交关系中，尤其是在加入北约的雄心壮志方面，处境微妙，这令人担忧，”奥尔波说道。

马林在基辅举行的新闻发布会上发表了上述言论。这位总理表示，芬兰对向乌克兰提供“大黄蜂”战斗机持开放态度。“关于战斗机，当然可以进行讨论。其他国家也在评估自身提供此类军事支持的能力。我认为芬兰也可以就此展开讨论。”马林说道。

芬兰国防军后勤司令部副主任尤哈-马蒂·伊利塔洛对芬兰是否有能力向乌克兰提供“大黄蜂”战斗机表示怀疑，理由是该型飞机机龄老旧且维护成本高昂。

后勤司令部负责监督 HX 战斗机采购计划，最终选择了 F-35，这一过程历时六年。

“从结构上看，黄蜂队已经所剩无几了。他们不太可能在2030年代还能保持顶级竞技水平，”伊利塔洛说道。

芬兰国防部长安蒂·凯科宁承认，他对马林关于“大黄蜂”战机的声明“事先并不知情”，并补充说，在2025年F-35战机替换服役之前，芬兰空军目前无法通过捐赠这些战机来降低自身能力。

“我们现有的这些黄蜂球员仍然是必需的，而且在未来几年内也仍然需要他们，”凯科宁说道。

芬兰国际事务研究所所长米卡·阿尔托拉表示，马林的言论令芬兰在欧洲和美国的安全伙伴感到惊讶。

“芬兰在外交事务上的政策路线必须始终清晰明确。如果总理在发表有关大黄蜂的言论之前先与我们的合作伙伴进行沟通，那将是明智之举，”阿尔托拉说道。

阿尔托拉支持芬兰将芬兰和瑞典的入盟申请分开进行的策略。他说：“芬兰应该表明其有能力将申请分开，因为这两个申请在政治上是紧密相连的。”

杰拉德·奥德怀尔是《防务新闻》的斯堪的纳维亚事务记者。