Iran war expected to cause a spike in US inflation, according to budget watchdog

The US war with Iran is expected to increase inflation for the first quarter of 2027, raising costs at a time Americans are growing more concerned about the economy , according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office released Tuesday,

The CBO expects the Iran war to add roughly 0.5 percentage points to inflation during that period, a calculation that is largely driven by higher energy costs due to the conflict.

On top of the impact on the US economy, the CBO estimates the war has cost approximately $38 billion through August 1. The estimate does not include the cost to repair US facilities damaged during the war, with most of the price tag coming from munitions expenditures, according to a letter shared with Congress.

“CBO estimates that the cost to replace the munitions expended through August 1, 2026, is $21.7 billion: $7.3 billion for the land-attack cruise missiles, $13.1 billion for the missile defense interceptors, and $1.2 billion for other munitions,” the letter said. “Replacing those munitions has been the largest single component of the costs incurred by DoD during the conflict, CBO estimates.”

The CBO estimates the war will continue to cost the US approximately $2 billion to $3 billion per month past August 1, with higher costs estimated during periods of escalated fighting.

But the CBO said it would not provide a full accounting of the war’s cost as requested by lawmakers given limitations in available data.

“The estimates that CBO was asked to produce for each category of costs are the result of separate analyses that reflect disparate data, methods, time periods, and magnitudes of uncertainty,” the office said. “Thus, the estimates for each category are not directly comparable or summable.”

The CBO estimate closely tracks what the Pentagon has told Congress, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth putting the cost at $37.5 billion through July 21 during testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. The Defense Department’s estimates similarly do not include the cost of repairing facilities. In some cases, the US government may simply decline to rebuild assets that were severely damaged or destroyed by Iranian attacks — in part due to cost considerations, sources previously told CNN.

Pentagon officials have publicly refused to say what they might rebuild and declined to respond to CBO’s request for information.

Pentagon comptroller Jules “Jay” Hurst III told reporters in April it was not clear how much it would cost to repair bases and facilities damaged in the war, “and part of it is we would assess what our posture should be in the Middle East.”

Hurst later added that the Pentagon does not “have a final number for what the damage is to our installations overseas,” and it depends “on how we decide to rebuild those, or if we do.”

The CBO also conducted an analysis of US stockpiles, and found that the war has significantly depleted munitions, including interceptor stockpiles. That assessment matches a Pentagon inspector general report released Monday that described a critical missile shortage.

Experts warn this could reduce the military’s capacity to respond to another major conflict. Rebuilding the US stockpile could take five years or longer, the CBO reported.

The CBO released these estimates in response to a request from House Democrats on the Budget Committee who have pressed for specifics on how much the US-Iran war is costing.

“Donald Trump’s disastrous war in Iran has already taken the lives of brave American servicemembers and left others wounded. Beyond that human toll, this nonpartisan CBO report makes clear that the war has also cost American taxpayers tens of billions of dollars and counting, while continuing to drive up costs,” Democratic Rep. Brendan Boyle, the committee’s ranking member, said in a statement to CNN.

根据国会预算办公室周二发布的一份分析报告，预计美国与伊朗的战争将导致2027年第一季度通货膨胀加剧，推高物价，而此时美国民众对经济的担忧日益加剧。

美国国会预算办公室预计，伊朗战争将使该时期的通货膨胀率上升约 0.5 个百分点，这一计算主要受冲突导致能源成本上升的影响。

除了对美国经济的影响外，国会预算办公室估计，截至8月1日，这场战争已耗资约380亿美元。根据提交给国会的一封信函，这一估计不包括修复战争期间受损的美国设施的费用，而大部分费用来自军火支出。

信中指出：“国会预算办公室（CBO）估计，截至2026年8月1日，更换已消耗弹药的成本为217亿美元：其中陆攻巡航导弹73亿美元，导弹防御拦截器131亿美元，其他弹药12亿美元。CBO估计，更换这些弹药是国防部在冲突期间所承担的最大单项成本。”

美国国会预算办公室估计，从 8 月 1 日之后，这场战争每月将继续给美国造成约 20 亿至 30 亿美元的损失，在战斗升级期间，损失预计会更高。

但国会预算办公室表示，由于可用数据有限，不会像立法者要求的那样提供战争成本的完整核算。

“国会预算办公室（CBO）被要求对每类成本进行估算，而这些估算是基于不同的分析结果，反映了不同的数据、方法、时间段和不确定性程度，”该办公室表示。“因此，每类成本的估算结果不能直接比较或相加。”

国会预算办公室的估算与五角大楼向国会提供的信息基本一致。国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯在7月21日出席参议院军事委员会听证会时表示，截至目前，相关费用为375亿美元。国防部的估算同样不包括设施修复费用。消息人士此前告诉CNN，在某些情况下，美国政府可能出于成本考虑，拒绝重建被伊朗袭击严重损坏或摧毁的资产。

五角大楼官员公开拒绝透露他们可能会重建哪些设施，也拒绝回应国会预算办公室的信息请求。

五角大楼主计长朱尔斯·“杰伊”·赫斯特三世在四月份告诉记者，目前还不清楚修复战争中受损的基地和设施需要多少费用，“其中一部分原因是我们需要评估我们在中东的姿态应该是什么。”

赫斯特后来补充说，五角大楼“还没有最终确定我们在海外的设施受损情况”，这取决于“我们如何决定重建这些设施，或者是否重建”。

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）还对美国的军火储备进行了分析，发现战争已大幅消耗了包括拦截弹在内的弹药储备。这一评估与五角大楼监察长周一发布的报告相符，该报告描述了导弹严重短缺的情况。

专家警告称，这可能会降低美军应对另一场重大冲突的能力。国会预算办公室报告称，重建美国军火库可能需要五年或更长时间。

国会预算办公室发布这些估算数据，是为了回应众议院预算委员会民主党人的要求，他们一直敦促提供美伊战争的具体成本数据。

“唐纳德·特朗普在伊朗发动的灾难性战争已经夺去了勇敢的美国军人的生命，并造成其他人受伤。除了人员伤亡之外，这份无党派的国会预算办公室报告还清楚地表明，这场战争也已经耗费了美国纳税人数百亿美元，而且成本还在不断上升，”众议院预算委员会资深成员、民主党众议员布伦丹·博伊尔在给CNN的一份声明中说。