Europe defense autonomy is in reach at €50 billion a year: German experts

PARIS — European sovereignty in defense and security is within reach and would require investing around €50 billion (US$59 billion) a year for the next decade, according to a paper by five prominent German defense investors, experts and industry executives.

The paper identified ten key areas where Europe faces strategic capability gaps, including command and control, autonomous systems and deep strike. Reaching defense autonomy would cost an estimated €150 billion to €200 billion by 2030, and €500 billion over the next decade, according to the paper published by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

Germany and Europe depend on the United States across the entire military-effect chain , from satellite-based reconnaissance to battlefield fire control, according to the paper dubbed Sparta 2.0. Current plans by European countries for significantly higher defense spending only provide “modest” gains in European independence, the authors said.

“A high degree of European independence can be achieved within a few years, at a cost that can be financed through the planned budget increases,” President of the German Council on Foreign Relations and former Airbus CEO Thomas Enders, one of the authors, said in a statement on Thursday. “Ukraine shows us that this does not take decades.”

In addition to Enders, the paper was signed by Jeannette zu Fürstenberg, president of venture-capital firm General Catalyst; economist Moritz Schularick, the president of the Kiel Institute; Airbus Chairman and former Deutsche Telekom CEO René Obermann; and security analyst and former defense staffer Nico Lange.

“A substantial part of the identified capability gaps can be addressed within a few years, provided that the appropriate political prioritization is in place,” the authors wrote. “The prerequisite is that Europe understands the strategic dimension of its defense challenge as its ‘Manhattan Project.’”

Substantial progress toward autonomous European capacity to act is realistic within three to five years, while “far-reaching autonomy” is achievable within five to 10 years, on condition that goal is pursued as a political priority within a joint European effort, the paper said.

Financing Europe’s sovereignty is achievable with around 10% of total European defense spending, with the expenditure required over the next decade corresponding to about 0.25% of GDP, according to the five authors.

The paper identified “ten central capability gaps” Europe needs to plug to be able to act autonomously. Cost estimates for programs proposed in the paper are “necessarily subject to considerable uncertainty,” with deviations in the range of 20% to 30% to be expected, the authors said.

Establishing a European command-and-control capability could take three to four years and would cost anywhere from €10 billion to €20-plus billion, according to the paper. Europe lacks a counterpart to U.S. defense-technology company Palantir, and building a sovereign European C2 and battle-management system is a priority, using Ukraine’s Delta system as a reference.

Europe has largely missed Ukraine’s paradigm shift to drone-dominated warfare, and building sufficient capacity in scaled autonomous systems could take three to five years, with a price tag of €30 billion or more.

Action points include setting up mass-production capacity for several million drones and loitering munitions per year, according to the report. Another line of action would be to set up a major development program for unmanned ground vehicles involving the German automotive industry, land-systems makers and AI startups, and designed for serial production.

Ground-based deep precision strike is another capability gap that could be filled in three to five years, within a cost envelope of €20 billion to €30 billion. Sixth-generation air combat systems would take 10 years or more and cost at least €200 billion, with that estimate including funding for two parallel sixth-generation development programs.

Europe has a gap in air defense, particularly in affordable, large-scale counter-drone and short-range capability at the level of brigades, assets and infrastructure, according to the paper. Ballistic missile defense “remains an equally critical gap.” Initial operating effectiveness in air defense could take three to five years, while “full build-out” that includes next-generation autonomous interceptors might require five to 10 years, for a total cost envelope of €50 billion.

The paper also mentioned satellite reconnaissance, communications as well as positioning, navigation and timing as a capability gap, with the number one priority to build a European equivalent to Starlink.

Other identified priority capability gaps are space launch; persistent airborne intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; military cloud, software and AI; strategic airlift and military-operational support; as well as electronic warfare and suppression of enemy air defenses.

Implementation should run through lead coalitions of countries, rather than a “new European super-structure,” according to the authors.

Europe further needs a paradigm shift in areas such as procurement, with prototype competitions rather than starting with hundreds of pages of specifications, the paper said. Contracts should reward outcomes rather than provide input specifications, focus on production capacity rather than number of units procured, while barriers to new entrants should be low, according to the authors.

“Ukraine shows that a broad supplier landscape combining established and new actors is more resilient, faster and more cost-effective than relying on a few large prime contractors,” the five authors wrote.

Europe has the financial means, industrial base and technology to overcome its strategic dependencies, and the bottleneck is political will to coordinate, prioritize and break with “decades of fragmentation.”

“We are convinced that Europe’s security will be decided by technological superiority and by the willingness to invest massively where it counts,” the authors said. “If we build the central capabilities at the right place, Europe can protect itself against aggressors and produce credible deterrence.”

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

巴黎——五位德国著名国防投资者、专家和行业高管在一份报告中指出，欧洲在国防和安全领域的主权触手可及，但需要在未来十年每年投资约 500 亿欧元（590 亿美元）。

该报告指出，欧洲在十个关键领域面临战略能力差距，包括指挥控制、自主系统和纵深打击。基尔世界经济研究所发布的这份报告估计，到2030年实现国防自主将耗资1500亿至2000亿欧元，未来十年则将耗资5000亿欧元。

根据题为《斯巴达2.0》的论文，德国和欧洲在整个军事效应链上都依赖美国，从卫星侦察到战场火力控制。作者表示，欧洲各国目前大幅增加国防开支的计划只能为欧洲的独立性带来“有限的”提升。

“欧洲可以在几年内实现高度独立，而这笔费用可以通过计划中的预算增长来支付，”德国外交关系委员会主席、前空客首席执行官托马斯·恩德斯（Thomas Enders）周四在一份声明中表示，他是该报告的作者之一。“乌克兰的例子告诉我们，这不需要几十年时间。”

除了恩德斯之外，该文件的签署人还包括风险投资公司 General Catalyst 的总裁 Jeannette zu Fürstenberg；经济学家莫里茨·舒拉里克（Moritz Schularick），基尔研究所所长；空中客车公司董事长兼前德国电信首席执行官雷内·奥伯曼 (René Obermann)；安全分析师、前国防工作人员尼科·兰格（Nico Lange）。

“只要政治优先事项安排得当，大部分已发现的能力差距都可以在几年内得到解决，”作者写道。“前提是欧洲要将自身国防挑战的战略层面理解为‘曼哈顿计划’。”

该文件指出，在三到五年内，欧洲在自主行动能力方面取得实质性进展是现实的；而“深远的自主权”则可在五到十年内实现，前提是这一目标被作为欧洲共同努力中的政治优先事项来追求。

五位作者认为，用欧洲国防总支出的 10% 左右即可实现欧洲主权的融资，未来十年所需的支出相当于国内生产总值的 0.25% 左右。

该报告指出，欧洲需要弥补“十大核心能力缺口”才能实现自主行动。报告作者表示，报告中提出的各项计划的成本估算“必然存在相当大的不确定性”，预计偏差在20%到30%之间。

报告指出，建立欧洲指挥控制能力可能需要三到四年时间，耗资100亿至200亿欧元以上。欧洲目前缺乏与美国国防科技公司Palantir类似的企业，因此，借鉴乌克兰的Delta系统，构建自主的欧洲指挥控制和作战管理系统是当务之急。

欧洲在很大程度上错过了乌克兰向无人机主导的战争模式转变，而建立足够规模的自主系统能力可能需要三到五年时间，耗资 300 亿欧元或更多。

报告指出，行动要点包括建立每年数百万架无人机和巡飞弹的大规模生产能力。另一项行动方案是设立一项大型无人地面车辆研发计划，该计划将汇集德国汽车工业、陆地系统制造商和人工智能初创企业，并旨在实现批量生产。

地面纵深精确打击是另一个能力缺口，可以在三到五年内弥补，成本在200亿至300亿欧元之间。第六代空中作战系统则需要十年或更长时间，成本至少2000亿欧元，这一估算包含了两个并行第六代作战系统研发项目的资金。

该报告指出，欧洲在防空领域存在缺口，尤其是在旅级单位、装备和基础设施层面，缺乏价格合理、大规模的反无人机和短程防御能力。弹道导弹防御“同样存在关键缺口”。防空体系的初始作战效能可能需要三到五年，而包括下一代自主拦截器在内的“全面建设”可能需要五到十年，总成本约为500亿欧元。

该文件还提到卫星侦察、通信以及定位、导航和授时能力存在差距，首要任务是建立欧洲版的星链系统。

其他已确定的优先能力差距包括：太空发射；持续空中情报、监视和侦察；军事云、软件和人工智能；战略空运和军事作战支援；以及电子战和压制敌方防空系统。

作者认为，实施工作应该通过国家牵头的联盟来进行，而不是通过“新的欧洲上层建筑”来进行。

该报告指出，欧洲在采购等领域亟需进行范式转变，例如采用原型竞赛而非从数百页的技术规格书入手。报告作者认为，合同应奖励成果而非规定投入规格，应关注生产能力而非采购数量，同时应降低新进入者的准入门槛。

五位作者写道：“乌克兰的例子表明，由成熟企业和新兴企业组成的广泛的供应商体系比依赖少数大型总承包商更具韧性、速度更快、成本效益更高。”

欧洲拥有克服其战略依赖性的财政手段、工业基础和技术，瓶颈在于协调、优先排序和打破“数十年的分裂”的政治意愿。

“我们坚信，欧洲的安全将取决于技术优势以及在关键领域进行大规模投资的意愿，”作者们表示。“如果我们能在正确的地方建立核心能力，欧洲就能保护自己免受侵略者的侵害，并形成可信的威慑力量。”

鲁迪·鲁伊滕贝格是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者。他的职业生涯始于彭博新闻社，拥有报道科技、大宗商品市场和政治方面的经验。