US Fed raises interest rates for first time since 2023, Trump sees move as personal attack

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, increasing them by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, in an effort to tackle persistent inflation.

Despite opposition from President Donald Trump, who has criticized the Fed's decisions, the central bank's move reflects growing concerns over economic pressures, including energy price shocks from the Iran conflict and tariffs.

The majority of Fed policymakers anticipate another rate hike before year-end, highlighting the ongoing challenge of managing inflation while maintaining economic and labor market resilience.

This decision comes amid heightened political tension and economic scrutiny as midterm elections approach.

WASHINGTON, Sept 17 — The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, defying President Donald Trump’s demand for cuts, as central bank chief Kevin Warsh stressed the need to combat inflation that has been “too high” for “too long.”

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise rates by 25 basis points to between 3.75 and 4.00 per cent.

“The plain fact is that inflation is too high, and has been for too long,” Warsh told a press conference, adding that the decision was a “serious” but necessary one.

And Wednesday’s rate hike may not be the last – the vast majority of Fed policymakers indicated that at least one more rate hike was likely necessary before the end of the year, according to their Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

US households and businesses have been battered by years of higher-than-target inflation, and prices have surged in the wake of Trump’s war on Iran, his signature tariff policies and the ongoing AI boom.

The US president reacted angrily to the decision Wednesday, calling it a “raise against Trump” and accusing the Fed’s rate-setting committee – which he called “hostile” – of making decisions for political reasons.

The president has launched an unprecedented assault on the Fed’s independence since taking office, attempting to fire a Fed Governor and launching a criminal probe against Warsh’s predecessor in his quest for lower rates to spur economic activity.

Wednesday’s statements refrained from directly insulting or criticising Warsh, as Trump was wont to do with former Fed chair Jerome Powell.

Trump’s Republican Party faces a stern test in upcoming midterm elections, with rival Democrats seeking to wrest control of both houses of Congress and economic issues front-and-centre for voters.

Growing calls for hike

The Fed had held rates steady since January, choosing to wait to gauge the effects of the Iran war’s energy price shocks and to let the impact of tariffs on prices ripple through the economy.

Since July, however, a growing faction of policymakers had indicated a rate hike may be required to tame inflation, as the war grinds on and prices remained elevated, particularly for energy.

On Friday, August’s consumer price index came in at 3.4 per cent – unchanged from the month before, but still well above the Fed’s long-term two-percent target.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said inflation had “forced the Fed’s hand.”

“Price pressures remain too elevated and too persistent for policymakers to look through, while the economy and labour market have held up well enough to absorb tighter policy,” she said.

In its SEP, the Fed raised its forecast for its preferred gauge of inflation – the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index – by 0.1 percentage points to 3.7 per cent by year-end.

The Fed also raised its projection for GDP growth by year-end to 2.3 per cent, up 0.1 percentage points.

Warsh reiterated his belief in the “resilience” of the US economy, citing its strength as being a marker of its ability to absorb tighter financial conditions.

‘Rather unfortunate’

US stock markets largely priced in Wednesday’s rate hike, but they were still down on the news – expected with any rate hike as investors adjust their portfolios.

Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds – which have surged in recent days as uncertainty on long-term inflation has spiked – were also up past the five-percent threshold, a sign that uncertainty remains a factor.

Warsh was named to his position after a contentious Senate confirmation process, during which Democratic lawmakers accused him of being a “sock puppet” for Trump, which he denied.

The Fed has a dual mandate to deliver maximum employment while keeping inflation to its long-term two-percent target.

It mainly achieves these goals by setting the key US interest rate – lower rates tend to spur economic activity but fuel inflation, and hiking them cools both activity and prices.

The Fed’s SEP showed that at least 12 of 18 policymakers who participated in the projection expected one more rate hike would be required before the end of the year.

Four policymakers expect two more rate hikes to be required.

Warsh has criticised the Fed’s policy of offering such projections in the past and did not participate in the previous iteration in June.

This projection also included only 18 policymakers, suggesting he had once again withheld his contribution. — AFP

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美国联邦储备委员会自 2023 年以来首次提高利率，将利率上调 25 个基点至 3.75% 至 4.00% 的区间，以应对持续的通货膨胀。

尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普批评了美联储的决定，但美联储的举动反映出人们对经济压力的日益担忧，包括伊朗冲突和关税带来的能源价格冲击。

美联储大多数决策者预计在年底前再次加息，这凸显了在保持经济和劳动力市场韧性的同时控制通胀所面临的持续挑战。

这项决定是在中期选举临近、政治局势日益紧张和经济形势受到密切关注的背景下做出的。

华盛顿，9 月 17 日——美国联邦储备委员会周三宣布自 2023 年以来首次加息，此举无视了唐纳德·特朗普总统要求降息的呼声。美联储主席凯文·沃什强调，有必要应对“过高”且“持续时间过长”的通胀。

美联储联邦公开市场委员会一致投票决定将利率上调 25 个基点，至 3.75% 至 4.00% 之间。

沃什在新闻发布会上表示：“显而易见的事实是，通货膨胀率过高，而且这种情况持续了太久。”他还补充说，这项决定是“严肃的”，但也是必要的。

周三的加息可能并非最后一次——根据美联储经济预测摘要（SEP），绝大多数美联储政策制定者表示，在年底前可能至少还需要一次加息。

多年来，美国家庭和企业一直饱受高于目标水平的通货膨胀之苦，而特朗普对伊朗发动战争、推行其标志性关税政策以及持续的人工智能热潮更是推高了物价。

美国总统周三对这一决定表示愤怒，称其为“针对特朗普的加息”，并指责美联储的利率制定委员会（他称之为“敌对的”）出于政治原因做出决定。

自上任以来，总统对美联储的独立性发起了前所未有的攻击，他试图解雇一位美联储理事，并对沃什的前任发起刑事调查，以寻求降低利率来刺激经济活动。

周三的声明没有像特朗普对待前美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔那样直接侮辱或批评沃什。

特朗普所在的共和党在即将到来的中期选举中面临严峻考验，其竞争对手民主党人正寻求夺取国会两院的控制权，而经济问题也成为选民最为关注的焦点。

要求徒步的呼声越来越高

自 1 月份以来，美联储一直维持利率不变，选择等待评估伊朗战争能源价格冲击的影响，并让关税对价格的影响在经济中逐步显现。

然而，自 7 月以来，越来越多的政策制定者表示，随着战争持续进行，物价居高不下，尤其是能源价格，可能需要加息来抑制通货膨胀。

周五公布的8月份消费者价格指数为3.4%，与上月持平，但仍远高于美联储2%的长期目标。

毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克表示，通货膨胀“迫使美联储采取行动”。

她表示：“物价压力仍然过高且持续存在，决策者无法忽视，而经济和劳动力市场表现良好，足以承受更紧缩的政策。”

美联储在其特别经济政策报告中，将其首选的通胀指标——个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数——的预期值上调了0.1个百分点，至年底达到3.7%。

美联储还将年底前GDP增长预期上调至2.3%，上调0.1个百分点。

沃什重申了他对美国经济“韧性”的信念，并指出美国经济的强劲势头表明其有能力应对更加紧缩的金融环境。

“真不幸”

美国股市基本消化了周三的加息消息，但消息公布后股市仍然下跌——任何加息都会导致股市下跌，因为投资者会调整他们的投资组合。

由于长期通胀的不确定性急剧上升，近几日美国10年期国债收益率大幅上涨，目前已超过5%的门槛，这表明不确定性仍然是一个重要因素。

沃什是在经历了一场充满争议的参议院确认程序后被任命的，在此期间，民主党议员指责他是特朗普的“傀儡”，但他否认了这一指控。

美联储的双重使命是实现充分就业，同时将通胀率维持在2%的长期目标水平。

它主要通过设定美国关键利率来实现这些目标——较低的利率往往会刺激经济活动，但会加剧通货膨胀，而提高利率则会抑制经济活动和物价上涨。

美联储的SEP数据显示，参与预测的18位政策制定者中至少有12位预计，在年底前还需要加息一次。

四位政策制定者预计还需要两次加息。

沃什过去曾批评美联储提供此类预测的政策，并且没有参加6月份的上一次预测。

这份预测报告也只包含了18位政策制定者，这表明他再次隐瞒了自己的贡献。——法新社

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