U.S. Infrared Satellite Data Could Settle The Debate Over Pakistan-India Dogfight

Updated Dec 1, 2019 6:47 AM EST

America’s constellation of panoptic infrared early warning satellites is known for providing the Pentagon with the first indication that a ballistic missile launch has occurred and where to cue the attention of other sensors so that the missile can be tracked, classified, and even potentially intercepted . Yet America’s huge investment in orbital early warning platforms, which dates back to the 1960s, has also resulted in a secondary function for these systems—picking up much more than just large rocket and ballistic missile launches. These ancillary events can include the launch of smaller missiles, like surface-to-air and even air-to-air types, artillery barrages, large detonations on the ground… and exploding aircraft.

The limited air battle between India and Pakistan that occurred over Kashmir on February 28, 2019, is one of the most hotly contested military events we have seen in a long time. Misinformation flowed like a waterfall in the hours, days, and weeks following the shoot-down of the Indian MiG-21 Bison by a Pakistani fighter, with allegations of systemic deception at the highest levels of government being flung with reckless abandon across both sides of Line Of Control. In fact, it continues to this very day with no sign of abating.

We have covered the story in extreme depth and tried to separate myth from reality and knowns from unknowns as much as possible in an attempt to bring an objective and well-versed viewpoint to the alarmingly murky and spiteful debate. But even a month and a half after the aerial engagement happened, what exactly occurred during it remains unclear. India says their MiG-21 pilot that got shot down also shot down a fighter of his own—a Pakistani F-16—moments before his aircraft was struck. Meanwhile, Pakistan claims they lost no aircraft during the engagement and reports attributed to undisclosed sources state that all of its F-16s are accounted for .

So, when it comes to the air-to-air side of hostilities, we are left with one crucial question that has tensions boiling between the two long-time foes—was a Pakistani fighter shot down or not? India has produced some far from conclusive “radar data” that they say shows the F-16 being shot down. It also provides general positioning information of the aircraft involved and especially of the MiG-21 in relation to the F-16 that New Delhi says was shot down by its MiG pilot.

One of a just a handful of still screenshots offered up as “radar data” by the Indian Air Force shows the position of aircraft over Kashmir when the shootdown occurred. , Youtube Screengrab

But with just a few screenshots to go by of said radar data and with Pakistan unwilling to provide any additional info of their own, the two sides seem locked in an informational stalemate of sorts, where one narrative is constantly pitted against the other without end.

The thing is that the Pentagon very likely possesses sensor data that can unequivocally prove one story right and the other wrong. That aforementioned infrared early warning constellation includes Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) and Defense Support Program (DSP) satellites—the former being the more modern and advanced of the two. You can and should read all about these fascinating satellites and their origins in this past feature of mine.

It is all but certain that portions of America’s space-based infrared early warning system staring down on the India-Pakistan area as the air battle unfolded. With the two countries possessing enough nuclear warheads to cause significant harm to the globe —many of which would be deployed via ballistic missile—the region is something of a “must monitor” for Department of Defense. This is especially true considering a nearly unprecedented bombing raid into Pakistani territory occurred just a day before the air engagement in question and a full-out war between the bitter foes could have been right around the corner.

As we mentioned earlier, these satellites not only have a strategic function, they also have a tactical one in that they have the ability to detect non-ballistic missile launches and other infrared events. In fact, there is an entire Air Force unit tasked with squeezing out secondary surveillance products from these spacecraft that constantly stare at the earther’s surface. And they see a lot. In 2014, over 8,000 separate infrared events were detected and cataloged, the next year was even busier.

Slide from a 1998 presentation on SBIRS’ capability. , USAF

So, it is probable that any missile launches that occurred that day, whether it was an AIM-120 AMRAAM from the Pakistani F-16 or the R-73 from the Indian MiG-21, could have been detected, geolocated, and catalogized. But it is even less challenging for the satellites to detect a missile exploding in mid-air and causing the aircraft it showers with shrapnel to erupt into a massive fireball.

This is not conjecture. The downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Eastern Ukraine was picked up by SBIRS , as was the SA-11’s missile launch that doomed that Boeing 777. The bombing of Metrojet Flight 9268 over the Sanai Peninsula was also detected by SBIRS . So, are we to believe that a fighter loaded with weapons and fuel, flying over what could be an imminent flashpoint of war between two nuclear powers, had a missile blow it out of the sky and it wasn’t detected?

Highly unlikely, to say the least.

That data could totally validate or invalidate the radar surveillance data India has presented, including correlating the locations of the MiG and F-16 with the geolocations and timing of the infrared events detected.

So why isn’t the U.S. setting the record straight assuming it has this information? Geopolitically there is a long list of reasons for the U.S. not to inject itself into a conflict between two nuclear-armed powers with different levels of complex relations with Washington D.C. In addition, the Pentagon has never been all that talkative about the secondary uses for its space-based infrared early warning network and detecting terrestrial infrared events is just one of its potentially secondary applications. Leveraging this information in real time could have huge advantages during a conflict, so it seems to only be talked about when it is absolutely necessary—like the shoot down of MH17, an event that Russia was accused of having a direct hand in.

So, there you have it. As the brutal information war on the internet rages on between the two estranged neighbors, keep in mind that the U.S. could most likely settle the debate once and for all with data it has had since the moment the engagement occurred. And this is just one intelligence product among many that the Pentagon and the U.S. intelligence community can pull from to make an accurate analysis of what went on that day. But as of yet, nobody with the power to do so is willing to offer up such definitive information to put the issue to rest.

It’s possible that unless that changes, we may never truly know exactly what went on in the chaotic skies over Kashmir on that fateful day.

Contact the author: Tyler@thedrive.com

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更新于美国东部时间2019年12月1日上午6:47。

美国的全景红外预警卫星星座以其为五角大楼提供弹道导弹发射的第一手情报而闻名，并能指示其他传感器关注导弹的发射位置，以便对其进行跟踪、分类，甚至可能进行拦截。然而，美国自20世纪60年代以来对轨道预警平台的大量投资，也使得这些系统具备了另一项功能——能够探测到远不止大型火箭和弹道导弹发射的事件。这些辅助事件包括小型导弹的发射，例如地对空导弹甚至空对空导弹，炮火齐射，地面大型爆炸……以及飞机爆炸。

2019年2月28日，印巴在克什米尔上空发生的有限空战，是近年来最激烈的军事事件之一。在印巴战机击落印度米格-21“野牛”战斗机后的数小时、数天乃至数周内，各种虚假信息铺天盖地而来，双方肆无忌惮地指责印巴政府高层存在系统性欺骗行为。事实上，这种指责至今仍在持续，丝毫没有减弱的迹象。

我们对这起事件进行了极其深入的报道，力求尽可能地将谣言与现实、已知与未知区分开来，以期为这场令人震惊的混乱且充满恶意的争论带来客观且专业的视角。然而，即使在空战发生一个半月后，事件的真相仍然扑朔迷离。印度方面称，被击落的米格-21飞行员在被击落前不久也击落了一架己方战机——一架巴基斯坦F-16。与此同时，巴基斯坦方面则声称他们在交战中没有损失任何战机，并且有消息人士透露，巴基斯坦的所有F-16战机都已清点完毕。

因此，就空战方面而言，我们面临着一个关键问题，这个问题令这两个宿敌之间的紧张局势持续升温——巴基斯坦战机究竟是否被击落？印度方面公布了一些远非确凿的“雷达数据”，声称这些数据显示F-16战机被击落。这些数据还提供了涉事飞机的大致位置信息，特别是米格-21相对于新德里所称被其米格飞行员击落的F-16的位置信息。

印度空军提供的少数几张所谓“雷达数据”截图中，有一张显示了飞机在克什米尔上空被击落时的位置。（YouTube 截图）

但由于只有几张雷达数据的截图可供参考，而且巴基斯坦方面也不愿提供任何其他信息，双方似乎陷入了一种信息僵局，双方不断进行无休止的争论。

问题在于，五角大楼很可能掌握着传感器数据，这些数据可以确凿地证明其中一种说法是正确的，而另一种说法是错误的。前面提到的红外预警星座包括天基红外系统（SBIRS）和国防支援计划（DSP）卫星——前者是两者中更先进、更现代化的。你可以在我之前的文章中了解到这些引人入胜的卫星及其起源，而且你应该去读一读。

几乎可以肯定的是，在空战爆发之际，美国天基红外预警系统的一部分正密切监视着印巴地区。由于印巴两国都拥有足以对全球造成重大破坏的核弹头——其中许多可以通过弹道导弹发射——因此，该地区对美国国防部而言是“必须密切关注”的区域。尤其值得注意的是，就在此次空战发生的前一天，美国对巴基斯坦领土进行了史无前例的轰炸，两国之间爆发全面战争的可能性极高。

正如我们之前提到的，这些卫星不仅具有战略功能，还具有战术功能，因为它们能够探测非弹道导弹发射和其他红外事件。事实上，美国空军有一个专门的部门负责从这些持续监视地球表面的航天器中提取二次监视数据。它们获取的数据非常丰富。2014年，它们探测并记录了超过8000个独立的红外事件，第二年的数据更加密集。

这是1998年关于SBIRS能力的演示文稿中的一张幻灯片。（美国空军）

因此，当天发生的任何导弹发射，无论是巴基斯坦F-16发射的AIM-120 AMRAAM导弹，还是印度米格-21发射的R-73导弹，都可能被探测到、定位并编入目录。但对于卫星来说，探测到导弹在空中爆炸并导致飞机被碎片击中，最终化为巨大的火球，则更加容易。

这并非臆测。马来西亚航空17号航班在乌克兰东部上空被击落的事件，以及导致波音777客机坠毁的SA-11导弹的发射，都被SBIRS系统探测到。Metrojet航空9268号航班在萨奈半岛上空被炸毁的事件，同样也被SBIRS系统探测到。那么，我们难道要相信，一架满载武器和燃料的战斗机，飞越两个核大国之间可能即将爆发战争的地区，被导弹击落，而SBIRS系统却没有探测到吗？

可能性极低，说得委婉点就是如此。

这些数据可以完全验证或否定印度提出的雷达监视数据，包括将米格和F-16的位置与探测到的红外事件的地理位置和时间进行关联。

那么，既然美国掌握了这些信息，为何不澄清事实呢？从地缘政治角度来看，美国不愿介入两个核大国之间的冲突，而这两个国家与华盛顿的关系又错综复杂，原因有很多。此外，五角大楼从未过多谈及天基红外预警网络的辅助用途，而探测地面红外事件只是其潜在用途之一。在冲突中实时利用这些信息可能具有巨大优势，因此，美国似乎只有在绝对必要的情况下才会提及此事——例如MH17航班被击落事件，俄罗斯被指控直接参与其中。

事情就是这样。随着这两个关系疏远的邻国在互联网上展开残酷的信息战，请记住，美国很可能凭借自事件发生以来就掌握的数据，一劳永逸地解决这场争论。而这仅仅是五角大楼和美国情报机构可以用来对当天事件进行准确分析的众多情报产品之一。但迄今为止，没有任何有权这样做的人愿意提供如此确凿的信息来平息这场争论。

除非情况有所改变，否则我们可能永远无法真正了解在那悲剧的一天，克什米尔上空混乱的天空究竟发生了什么。

联系作者：Tyler@thedrive.com

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