The housing market is shifting toward buyers. They’re still not feeling it

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After years of sellers holding the upper hand, the US housing market is subtly shifting in buyers’ favor. But many are still reluctant to make a move.

Nationally, there are significantly more sellers than buyers in the market. Sellers outnumbered buyers nationwide by 58% in August — the widest gap since Redfin began tracking the data in 2013.

And, at the current sales pace, the market has 4.9 months of supply, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the highest level in more than a decade.

It’s a change from the past five years, when a rush for housing during the pandemic helped drive intense competition at a time of limited supply. But despite the current boost in inventory, buyers have pulled back in the last few months.

Several factors may be sidelining buyers. Mortgage rates have surged since the start of the US war with Iran, inching closer to 7% , and reaching the highest level last week since President Donald Trump’s first full week in office. The increase has driven up monthly payments, and a 7% mortgage could pose a psychological barrier for some would-be buyers, further restricting demand.

Meanwhile, national home prices continue climbing, albeit at a slower pace than inflation. In August, the median existing home sales price rose 1.6% year over year — the 38th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, according to NAR.

Isaac Ketcham moved to Grand Junction, Colorado, from Santa Fe, New Mexico, two years ago with the goal of buying a home. Although he was recently approved for a mortgage, he realized he isn’t comfortable taking on the debt and higher monthly home payments when the economy feels so uncertain .

“I went and toured several homes, went to a couple of open houses,” Ketcham said. “But there’s no rush, not at this price.”

Courtesy Isaac Ketcham

Pending home sales, which measure the number of new homes under contract, fell 4.7% in August from last year, NAR said. And earlier this month, mortgage applications to buy homes fell 19% from a year earlier, the industry group Mortgage Bankers Association reported.

Ketcham said he has watched prices climb and worries that buying a home could stretch his budget too far. For now, he is reluctant to give up his $1,500 monthly rent.

“You kind of have to protect your wallet where you can. Food’s going up, gas is going up, health insurance is going up, everything’s going up,” he said. “How can I afford my housing to double? That’s just crazy.”

Mortgage rates have remained stubbornly above 6% since the Federal Reserve began aggressively raising interest rates in 2022 to combat inflation.

For the first time since the pandemic, more homeowners now have a mortgage rate above 6% than one below 3%, according to a Redfin analysis of FHFA data.

But for some who have still hung on to lower rates, trading out their existing mortgage rate for one above 6% isn’t feasible with mounting home prices and other monthly expenses.

Trayce Potter bought her home in 2017 with a mortgage rate below 4%, expecting it to be a starter home. Nearly a decade later, she’s still there, and the 30-minute drive to her children’s school in Shaker Heights, Ohio, has become increasingly inconvenient. Now, soaring gas prices are making the commute even more expensive.

She wants to move closer to their school, but she said the math does not work.

After the Fed’s interest rate hikes a few years ago pushed mortgage rates sharply higher, homeowners with low mortgage rates were stuck in so-called “golden handcuffs,” reluctant to sell because moving would mean taking on a much higher mortgage rate.

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That “lock-in” phenomenon further constrained inventory across the country, leading to higher home sales prices.

On Wednesday, the central bank raised rates again for the first time in more than three years . As a result, experts say it could take time for mortgage rates to come down significantly.

Although Potter regularly checks new home listings in Shaker Heights, she worries that moving would double or triple her $1,200 housing costs.

She has considered selling her home and going back to renting — or asking her parents to co-buy a larger home with her and split the costs.

“It’s really discouraging. Maybe I should have jumped on it earlier and taken my chances. There’s definitely some regret (with not buying sooner),” she said .

The slowdown in buyer interest has weighed on the real estate industry.

Tours of home listings are down 3% since the start of the year, according to Redfin and ShowingTime data through September 10. At this time last year, touring activity was up 26% from the start of 2025.

Tyler Smith, a real estate agent in Cincinnati, said his area has clearly shifted into a buyer’s market: Homes are sitting longer, and some sellers are cutting prices. Highly sought-after properties in desirable school districts can still sell relatively quickly, though, he said.

The slowdown has changed the pace of Smith’s work.

“In 2022, 2023 and even 2024, you would put a home on the market and just call your day off because you’re going to get bombarded by calls and offers and emails,” Smith said. “I’ve had up to 25 offers on one house during that time, and they were going 10% to 20% over list.”

Today, Smith said marketing plays a bigger role.

“Now you’re doing price reductions, you’re doing open houses, you’re doing more external marketing and mailers,” he said. “You can’t just put it on the market now and let it go.”

Still, home sales haven’t dropped off despite higher mortgage rates. The pace of home sales has remained largely unchanged this year compared to last year, according to NAR data through August.

Nationally, the lock-in effect has also eased somewhat, said Brad Case, chief residential economist at Homes.com. In the past few months, more homeowners appear to have accepted higher mortgage rates as the reality and are willing to list their homes, contributing to today’s elevated inventory, he said.

Existing homeowners looking to move may be less concerned about mortgage rates if rising home values have boosted their equity. Selling at a higher price gives them more money to put toward their next home, potentially reducing or eliminating their monthly mortgage costs.

These cash-rich buyers also face less competition in the market, as buyers who are more sensitive to higher rates step back.

That’s the case for Rob Eaton. For more than 20 years, the touring musician rented an apartment in Lower Manhattan but owned his vacation home in Vail, Colorado.

Now at 65, Eaton wants a larger full-time home with more space, preferably in a New York City suburb.

He listed his Vail home for $1.3 million last month. He hopes to have enough cash to put at least 50% down on his next home if the Vail home sells by next spring.

Eaton told CNN that buyer demand has been slower than he expected in Vail, but he isn’t too worried.

He’s willing to bet on lower mortgage rates in the future. Eaton said he’s considering an adjustable-rate mortgage , which typically offers a lower introductory rate before adjusting periodically with market conditions.

“I think I’m in a good position,” Eaton said. “I won’t be locked in to a 30-year mortgage.”

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多年来卖方占据主导地位之后，美国房地产市场正在悄然向买方倾斜。但许多人仍然犹豫不决。

全国范围内，市场上的卖家数量远超买家。8月份，全国卖家数量比买家数量多出58%，这是自Redfin于2013年开始追踪该数据以来的最大差距。

根据美国房地产经纪人协会的数据，按照目前的销售速度，市场供应量相当于4.9个月的库存。这是十多年来的最高水平。

这与过去五年的情况有所不同。过去五年，疫情期间住房需求激增，导致供应有限，竞争异常激烈。但尽管目前库存有所增加，买家在过去几个月里却有所回落。

多种因素可能导致购房者望而却步。自美伊战争爆发以来，抵押贷款利率飙升，逼近7%，并在上周达到特朗普总统就职首周以来的最高水平。利率上涨推高了月供，而7%的抵押贷款利率可能对一些潜在购房者构成心理障碍，进一步抑制需求。

与此同时，全美房价持续上涨，尽管增速低于通货膨胀率。据美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）的数据显示，8月份二手房销售价格中位数同比上涨1.6%，这是连续第38个月同比上涨。

两年前，艾萨克·凯彻姆从新墨西哥州圣达菲搬到科罗拉多州大章克申，目标是买房。虽然他最近获得了抵押贷款批准，但他意识到，在当前经济形势如此不明朗的情况下，他并不愿意承担债务和更高的每月房贷。

“我去看了好几套房子，也参加了几场开放参观的活动，”凯彻姆说。“但在这个价位上，我不着急。”

图片由艾萨克·凯彻姆提供

美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）表示，8月份待售房屋数量（衡量已签订合同的新房数量）同比下降4.7%。此外，抵押贷款银行家协会（MBA）本月早些时候报告称，购房抵押贷款申请量同比下降19%。

凯彻姆表示，他眼看着房价上涨，担心买房会让他捉襟见肘。目前，他不愿意放弃每月1500美元的房租。

“你得想办法省钱。食品涨价，汽油涨价，医疗保险涨价，所有东西都在涨价，”他说。“我怎么负担得起翻倍的房租？这太疯狂了。”

自美联储于 2022 年开始积极提高利率以应对通货膨胀以来，抵押贷款利率一直顽固地维持在 6% 以上。

根据 Redfin 对 FHFA 数据的分析，自疫情爆发以来，首次出现房主抵押贷款利率高于 6% 的人数超过低于 3% 的人数的情况。

但对于一些仍然选择较低利率的人来说，随着房价上涨和其他每月开支，将现有的抵押贷款利率换成 6% 以上的利率是不现实的。

特蕾西·波特 (Trayce Potter) 于 2017 年以低于 4% 的抵押贷款利率买下了这套房子，当时她只是想把它当作首套房。将近十年过去了，她仍然住在那里，但每天开车 30 分钟去俄亥俄州沙克高地 (Shaker Heights) 送孩子上学变得越来越不方便。如今，飙升的油价更是让通勤成本雪上加霜。

她想搬到离学校更近的地方，但她说这样算下来行不通。

几年前美联储加息后，抵押贷款利率大幅上涨，低抵押贷款利率的房主们陷入了所谓的“金手铐”之中，不愿出售房产，因为搬家意味着要承担更高的抵押贷款利率。

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg/Getty Images

这种“锁定”现象进一步限制了全国的库存，导致房屋销售价格上涨。

周三，央行三年多来首次再次加息。专家表示，因此，抵押贷款利率可能需要一段时间才能大幅下降。

尽管波特经常查看沙克高地的新房源信息，但她担心搬家会使她 1200 美元的住房成本翻倍甚至三倍。

她考虑过卖掉自己的房子，重新租房住，或者请父母和她一起买一套更大的房子，分摊费用。

“这真的很令人沮丧。也许我应该早点出手，抓住机会。没早点买，我肯定会后悔的，”她说。

购房者兴趣的放缓给房地产行业带来了压力。

根据 Redfin 和 ShowingTime 截至 9 月 10 日的数据，房屋参观量自年初以来下降了 3%。去年同期，房屋参观量比 2025 年初增长了 26%。

辛辛那提的房地产经纪人泰勒·史密斯表示，他所在的地区显然已经转变为买方市场：房屋滞销时间更长，一些卖家甚至降价出售。不过，他指出，位于优质学区的热门房产仍然可以相对快速地售出。

经济放缓改变了史密斯的工作节奏。

史密斯说：“到了2022年、2023年甚至2024年，你只要把房子挂牌出售，就得取消当天的行程，因为你会接到铺天盖地的电话、报价和邮件。我曾经有一套房子在那段时间里收到过25份报价，而且成交价都比挂牌价高出10%到20%。”

史密斯表示，如今营销发挥着更大的作用。

“现在你们要降价，要举办开放日，要加大对外营销力度，还要寄送宣传邮件，”他说。“现在不能只是把房子挂牌出售就放任不管了。”

尽管抵押贷款利率上升，但房屋销售并未下降。根据美国房地产经纪人协会（NAR）截至8月份的数据，今年房屋销售速度与去年同期相比基本保持不变。

Homes.com首席住宅经济学家布拉德·凯斯表示，从全国范围来看，锁定利率效应也有所缓解。他指出，过去几个月，越来越多的房主似乎已经接受了抵押贷款利率上涨的现实，并愿意出售房屋，这导致了目前房源库存的增加。

如果房价上涨提升了现有房主的房屋净值，他们可能就不会那么担心抵押贷款利率了。以更高的价格出售房屋可以让他们有更多资金用于购买下一套房产，从而有可能减少甚至消除每月的抵押贷款支出。

这些资金雄厚的买家在市场上面临的竞争也较小，因为对利率上升较为敏感的买家会选择退出。

罗布·伊顿的情况就是如此。这位巡演音乐家在曼哈顿下城租了一套公寓，住了二十多年，但他在科罗拉多州韦尔拥有一处度假屋。

现年 65 岁的伊顿想要一套更大的、空间更宽敞的常住住宅，最好是在纽约市郊区。

他上个月将位于韦尔的房子挂牌出售，标价130万美元。他希望如果韦尔的房子能在明年春天之前卖掉，他能有足够的现金支付下一套房子至少50%的首付。

伊顿告诉 CNN，韦尔的买家需求比他预期的要慢，但他并不太担心。

他愿意押注未来抵押贷款利率会走低。伊顿表示，他正在考虑浮动利率抵押贷款，这种贷款通常会在初期提供较低的利率，然后根据市场情况定期调整。

“我觉得我的处境不错，”伊顿说。“我不会被30年的抵押贷款束缚住。”