ADB raises Korea's 2026 growth forecast to 3.2%

The Asian Development Bank raised Korea’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.2 percent on Wednesday, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the AI boom. It also lifted the 2027 outlook to 2.3 percent. The bank kept its 2026 inflation forecast at 2.7 percent and warned that geopolitical tensions, global market volatility and higher U.S. tariffs could weigh on exports and investment.

The ADB increased its 2026 growth forecast for Korea by 0.6 percentage point from 2.6 percent to 3.2 percent.

The bank raised Korea’s 2027 growth outlook by 0.3 percentage point to 2.3 percent.

The ADB kept its 2026 consumer price inflation forecast for Korea at 2.7 percent and its 2027 forecast at 2.2 percent.

In July, the Ministry of Finance and Economy revised up its 2026 growth projection to 3 percent, citing the semiconductor supercycle.

In August, the Korea Development Institute said Korea’s economy was expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2026, up from a previous forecast of 2.5 percent.

Published Sep 23, 2026 9:13 am KST

Visitors view semiconductor products at an exhibition in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, Aug. 26. Yonhap

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday raised its 2026 economic growth forecast for Korea to 3.2 percent from the 2.6 percent projected in July, citing strong exports and corporate earnings amid the artificial intelligence (AI) boom.

The ADB's latest estimate marks a 0.6 percentage-point increase from the previous report, with the bank also raising its 2027 growth outlook for Asia's fourth-largest economy by 0.3 percentage point to 2.3 percent.

The Manila-based bank had projected growth of 1.9 percent and 2.6 percent for 2026 in its April and July reports, respectively, for Asia's No. 4 economy.

The ADB said the revised forecast reflected Korea's growing exports amid soaring global demand for AI chips.

Korea's expansionary fiscal policy and robust corporate earnings are contributing to a gradual recovery in private consumption, it added.

The ADB, however, noted potential risks include rising geopolitical tensions, increased volatility in global financial markets and additional U.S. tariff hikes, which could weigh on exports and investment.

As for inflation, the ADB maintained its July forecast for Korea, predicting consumer prices will likely rise 2.7 percent on-year in 2026.

The ADB said the government's efforts to curb consumer price increases were expected to partially offset inflationary pressures from higher global energy prices and stronger domestic demand.

The development bank maintained its inflation forecast for 2027 at 2.2 percent as well.

In July, the Ministry of Finance and Economy revised up the country's economic growth projection for 2026 to 3 percent in its second-half policy report, up 1 percentage point from its previous outlook, citing the semiconductor supercycle.

In August, the state-run Korea Development Institute (KDI) also said Korea's economy is expected to grow 3.2 percent in 2026, revising up its previous forecast of 2.5 percent.

亚洲开发银行周三将韩国2026年的经济增长预期上调至3.2%，理由是人工智能蓬勃发展带动了强劲的出口和企业盈利。该行同时将2027年的增长预期上调至2.3%。亚洲开发银行维持2026年2.7%的通胀预期不变，并警告称，地缘政治紧张局势、全球市场波动以及美国提高关税可能会对出口和投资构成压力。

亚洲开发银行将韩国2026年的经济增长预期上调了0.6个百分点，从2.6%上调至3.2%。

该银行将韩国2027年的经济增长预期上调0.3个百分点至2.3%。

亚洲开发银行维持对韩国2026年消费者价格通胀率2.7%的预测，以及对2027年消费者价格通胀率2.2%的预测。

7 月，财政经济部将 2026 年经济增长预期上调至 3%，理由是半导体超级周期。

韩国开发研究院8月份表示，预计韩国经济在2026年将增长3.2%，高于此前预测的2.5%。

发布于2026年9月23日上午9:13（韩国标准时间）

8月26日，参观者在京畿道水原市的一个展览会上观看半导体产品。（韩联社）

亚洲开发银行（亚行）周三将韩国2026年的经济增长预期从7月份预测的2.6%上调至3.2%，理由是人工智能（AI）热潮推动了韩国出口和企业盈利的强劲增长。

亚洲开发银行最新预测比上一份报告提高了 0.6 个百分点，同时将亚洲第四大经济体 2027 年的增长预期上调了 0.3 个百分点，达到 2.3%。

这家总部位于马尼拉的银行在其 4 月和 7 月的报告中分别预测，亚洲第四大经济体到 2026 年的增长率将分别为 1.9% 和 2.6%。

亚洲开发银行表示，修订后的预测反映了在全球人工智能芯片需求飙升的情况下，韩国出口不断增长。

报告还指出，韩国扩张性的财政政策和强劲的企业盈利正在促进私人消费的逐步复苏。

然而，亚洲开发银行指出，潜在风险包括地缘政治紧张局势加剧、全球金融市场波动性增加以及美国进一步提高关税，这些都可能对出口和投资造成压力。

至于通胀方面，亚洲开发银行维持了其7月份对韩国的预测，预计2026年韩国消费者价格可能同比上涨2.7%。

亚洲开发银行表示，政府为抑制消费价格上涨所做的努力有望部分抵消全球能源价格上涨和国内需求增强带来的通胀压力。

该开发银行维持了对2027年2.2%的通胀预测。

7 月，财政经济部在其下半年政策报告中将该国 2026 年的经济增长预期上调至 3%，比之前的预期高出 1 个百分点，理由是半导体超级周期。

今年8月，韩国国营的韩国开发研究院（KDI）也表示，预计韩国经济在2026年将增长3.2%，上调了此前2.5%的预测。