Trump’s midterm woes deepen amid worsened economic backdrop: CNN poll

With President Donald Trump at record unpopularity, Republicans are facing an even bleaker midterm political landscape than they did eight years ago, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds.

Nationally, voters say they prefer Democratic candidates over Republicans by an eight-point margin – slightly more modest than their 12-point advantage in CNN’s September polling ahead of the 2018 midterms in Trump’s first presidency.

But Trump is even more unpopular than he was in 2018, and the economic backdrop has worsened considerably. In his first term, Trump saw net-positive ratings on the economy, which Americans largely saw as thriving. Now, just 27% of Americans approve of Trump on the economy, down 22 points from 2018. And 28% call economic conditions good – a drop of 41 points.

The issue has risen in prominence: Two-thirds of registered voters call the economy “extremely important” to their vote, higher than in the autumn before either of the past two midterms. And, in a shift from recent trends, Americans say they agree more with Democrats than Republicans when it comes to the issue.

That leaves a midterm electorate in which the president’s supporters are largely tepid, while his opponents are furious. In a midterm high for an incumbent president dating back to the George W. Bush era, 44% of registered voters say they view their congressional vote as a message of opposition to Trump. Just 19%, by contrast, say their vote will be a message of support for the president.

At the same time, the public remains split on what a Democratic congressional victory might mean for the cost of living in the US, or their own financial situation.

Overall, just one-third of Americans now approve of Trump’s job performance, the continuation of a steady decline throughout his second term. That’s on par with the 34% he saw in July , but marks a numeric low in either term of his presidency.

Only 13% now say they strongly approve of his performance, another career low. Just 24% say he has the right priorities, and a scant 20% approve of his handling of inflation.

Two-thirds of Americans say Trump has worsened economic conditions in the country, and majorities say that the war in Iran, as well as new tariffs, have had a negative effect on their own finances. By contrast, few say they’re seeing benefits from Trump policies like changes to the tax law , or the establishment of Trump Accounts for children born during his second term. Most Americans also call increased gas prices a financial hardship for their household – and though only about one-quarter call that hardship severe, the public remains dubious that Trump has any plan to address the issue.

A 57% majority of Americans say they feel uncertain about their own finances, with nearly half expressing stress about their financial future – a sentiment that’s particularly acute among younger adults. Just 31% of Americans say they feel hope and 23% that they feel security, down 8 and 7 points respectively from spring. More than one-third aren’t confident about maintaining their current standard of living, worse than the numbers at the tail end of the Great Recession.

While Republicans haven’t deserted Trump, relatively few remain enthusiastic about the current state of his presidency. Only 35% say they strongly approve of him, down from 66% in September 2018. In the latest poll, 50% of Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of inflation, 59% say the Iran war has hurt their finances, and nearly half say he’s worsened or had no effect on economic conditions.

Overall, voters say, 49% to 41%, that they’d support a Democratic candidate over a Republican candidate in their congressional district. Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters are 16 points likelier than GOP-aligned voters to say they’re extremely motivated to vote this year.

Among the full public, anger at Trump and deep dissatisfaction with the status quo are paired with real skepticism about the prospects of a Democratic-controlled Congress.

Both congressional Democrats and congressional Republicans are deeply – and about equally – unpopular, with about one-quarter of Americans approving.

And while Americans say by a 10-point margin that a Democratic-controlled Congress would have a positive effect on health care policy, they’re closely split on whether a change in power would be more positive or negative when it comes to the cost of living in the US, their own finances, corruption, or foreign policy.

But the Democrats are nevertheless seen as the lesser of two evils on a crucial issue: They lead the GOP by 7 points as the party Americans say is closest to their own views on the economy. Over the past four years, this is both by far the best number for Democrats and the worst for Republicans on the topic.

A 68% majority of voters call the economy “extremely important” to their vote, topping a list of more than 10 issues. That’s far higher than the 59% in fall 2022 or 44% in fall 2018 who called the issue extremely important.

The poll finds that elections themselves, election integrity and voting rights are also at the forefront of many partisans’ minds as Trump continues his efforts to reshape or cast doubt on parts of the voting system, with 61% calling the issue extremely important. Majorities also say that inflation and health care are extremely important, while other hot-button issues – including data centers and AI, abortion, and policies around gender identity and trans people – don’t register as deeply.

Voters’ decisions, though, aren’t always down to which issues they find most important – more than half of voters say that other factors will be more important in their vote for Congress this year. And in this year where discontent with Washington is at the forefront of many voters’ minds, about a third say their votes will be primarily driven by which party will control the House of Representatives, including almost 4 in 10 of the most motivated voters.

CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta, Edward Wu and Isabelle LaBianco contributed to this report.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone September 16-17 among a random national sample of 1,206 adults, including 867 registered voters. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points; it is 4.1 points among registered voters.

CNN委托SSRS进行的一项最新民调显示，由于唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率跌至历史新低，共和党人面临的中期选举政治形势比八年前更加黯淡。

全国范围内，选民表示他们更倾向于民主党候选人而不是共和党候选人，领先幅度为 8 个百分点——这比 CNN 在 2018 年中期选举（特朗普第一任总统任期）前 9 月份的民意调查中民主党领先 12 个百分点的幅度略小。

但特朗普的支持率比2018年更低，经济形势也大幅恶化。在他第一个任期内，特朗普的经济表现总体上获得了积极的评价，美国民众普遍认为经济欣欣向荣。而现在，只有27%的美国人认可特朗普的经济政策，比2018年下降了22个百分点。认为经济状况良好的人也只有28%，下降了41个百分点。

这个问题的重要性日益凸显：三分之二的登记选民表示，经济对他们的投票“极其重要”，这一比例高于过去两次中期选举前秋季的水平。而且，与近期趋势不同的是，美国人表示，在这一问题上，他们更认同民主党的观点而非共和党的观点。

这使得中期选举选民的情绪呈现出截然不同的局面：总统的支持者普遍冷淡，而反对者则怒不可遏。在现任总统的中期选举中，44%的登记选民表示，他们将国会选举投票视为对特朗普的反对，这一比例创下了自小布什时代以来的最高纪录。相比之下，只有19%的选民表示，他们的投票将表达对总统的支持。

与此同时，公众对于民主党赢得国会多数席位可能对美国的生活成本或他们自身的财务状况意味着什么，仍然存在分歧。

总体而言，目前只有三分之一的美国人认可特朗普的执政表现，这延续了他第二个任期内持续下滑的趋势。这一数字与他7月份的34%基本持平，但却是他两个任期内支持率的最低点。

现在只有13%的人表示非常认可他的表现，这又创下了他职业生涯的新低。只有24%的人认为他把重点放在了正确的事情上，而只有区区20%的人认可他对通货膨胀的处理方式。

三分之二的美国人认为特朗普加剧了美国的经济困境，大多数人表示，伊朗战争以及新加征的关税对他们的财务状况产生了负面影响。相比之下，很少有人表示他们从特朗普的政策中受益，例如税法改革或为在他第二个任期内出生的孩子设立的“特朗普账户”。大多数美国人还认为汽油价格上涨给他们的家庭带来了经济负担——尽管只有大约四分之一的人认为这种负担十分严重，但公众仍然怀疑特朗普是否有任何解决这一问题的计划。

57%的美国人表示对自己的财务状况感到不确定，近一半的人对自己的财务前景感到担忧——这种情绪在年轻人中尤为强烈。只有31%的美国人表示感到充满希望，23%的人表示感到安全，分别比春季下降了8个百分点和7个百分点。超过三分之一的人对维持目前的生活水平没有信心，这一比例甚至低于大衰退末期的水平。

尽管共和党人并未完全抛弃特朗普，但对他的总统任期现状仍持乐观态度的人相对较少。只有35%的人表示强烈支持他，低于2018年9月的66%。在最新的民调中，50%的共和党人不认可特朗普应对通货膨胀的方式，59%的人表示伊朗战争损害了他们的财务状况，近一半的人认为他对经济状况产生了负面影响，或者说没有产生任何影响。

总体而言，49%的选民表示，他们会在自己所在的国会选区支持民主党候选人而非共和党候选人，支持率分别为49%和41%。民主党和倾向民主党的注册选民比共和党选民更有可能表示他们今年投票的积极性极高，可能性高出16个百分点。

在广大民众中，对特朗普的愤怒和对现状的强烈不满，与对民主党控制的国会前景的真正怀疑交织在一起。

国会民主党人和国会共和党人都非常不受欢迎，而且受欢迎程度几乎不相上下，只有大约四分之一的美国人支持他们。

虽然美国人以 10 个百分点的优势认为民主党控制的国会将对医疗保健政策产生积极影响，但对于权力更迭对美国生活成本、自身财务状况、腐败或外交政策的影响是利大于弊还是弊大于利，他们的看法却非常分歧。

但即便如此，在关键问题上，民主党仍被视为两害相权取其轻：在经济问题上，民主党领先共和党7个百分点，被美国民众认为是与他们观点最接近的政党。过去四年来，这既是民主党在该议题上迄今为止的最佳成绩，也是共和党在该议题上最糟糕的成绩。

68%的选民认为经济对他们的投票“极其重要”，在十多个议题中位列榜首。这一比例远高于2022年秋季的59%和2018年秋季的44%。

民调显示，随着特朗普持续试图重塑或质疑部分投票制度，选举本身、选举公正性和投票权也成为许多党派人士最为关注的问题，61%的受访者认为这些问题极其重要。此外，大多数受访者表示通货膨胀和医疗保健也极其重要，而其他一些热点问题——包括数据中心和人工智能、堕胎以及围绕性别认同和跨性别者的政策——则没有引起如此强烈的关注。

然而，选民的决定并非总是取决于他们认为哪些议题最重要——超过半数的选民表示，今年国会选举中，其他因素对他们的投票更为重要。在今年，许多选民对华盛顿的不满情绪尤为强烈，约有三分之一的选民表示，他们的投票将主要取决于哪个党派将控制众议院，这其中就包括近四成最积极的选民。

CNN的Jennifer Agiesta、Edward Wu和Isabelle LaBianco对本报道亦有贡献。

CNN委托SSRS于9月16日至17日通过网络和电话对1206名成年人进行了随机抽样调查，其中包括867名登记选民。完整样本的抽样误差为正负3.5个百分点；登记选民的抽样误差为4.1个百分点。