Trump is turning to a Putin ally to help America’s farmers. But there’s a big catch

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President Donald Trump’s escalating trade war with Canada has thus far spared one critical import for American farmers: potash, a crucial fertilizer component and plant nutrient that has virtually no substitute.

But that could change as the trade battle lingers and Canadian officials weigh options to retaliate beyond tariffs.

Trump suggested this week he’s found an alternative to Canada’s stranglehold on US potash supplies: Belarus, a completely landlocked country thousands of miles away from America’s farm country that is run by a strongman ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump said on Truth Social that he’s working on a “massive Deal” to buy potash from Belarus at a much cheaper price than Canada, which supplied about 90% of US potash imports last year.

Trump framed the talks as “very good news for our Farmers and Ranchers.”

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But there are multiple obstacles to pivoting the US potash supply, including Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s doubts about a deal. Just hours before Trump’s post, Lukashenko said his country “cannot supply large volumes” of potash to the United States because its supplies have already been spoken for this year.

The United States slapped a 50% tariff on many goods from Canada this summer – but critical imports, such as potash, crude oil and electricity, were spared. Trump’s scramble to tout the US talks with Belarus underscores the pressure from American farmers, who are slammed by surging diesel and fertilizer costs linked to the war with Iran.

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Some analysts doubt a deal with Belarus, a sanctioned nation thousands of miles away, would alleviate America’s long-standing reliance on Canadian potash. Canada supplied about 90% of the 13 million tons of potassium fertilizer imported last year, according to federal data.

“It’s not realistic at all. It’s prohibitively expensive to remove Belarusian material,” said Alexis Maxwell, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.

Due to European sanctions on Belarus, Maxwell estimates that it would cost about $200 per metric ton for Belarus to deliver potash to the United States before profit margins. That’s sharply higher than the $130-per-metric-ton cost for potash from America’s neighbors to the north.

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In 2021, prior to import restrictions imposed on Belarus, the United States imported about 700,000 tons of potassium fertilizer from Belarus, accounting for 5% of total imports, according to federal data.

Chris Krueger, global head of macro research at TD Cowen Washington Research Group, noted that Belarusian potash is already largely committed to Asia and the logistics of shipping it to the United States would be “challenging.”

“We remain skeptical,” Krueger wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.

Scott Lincicome, vice president of the libertarian think tank Cato Institute, was more blunt.

“Look, if you can’t laugh at the president desperately promising angry farmers that he’ll magically replace massive quantities of fertilizer from our nextdoor military ally with small imaginary quantities from a tinpot authoritarian thousands of miles away, then you simply have no sense of humor,” Lincicome posted on X.

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Businesses are already grappling with supply chain turmoil and price hikes unleashed by the Iran war. Anything that makes it harder or more expensive to purchase Canada’s potash would make matters worse.

Nitrogen-based fertilizer prices increased by 22% year-over-year in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index.

Producer prices on diesel, a critical fuel that powers trucks, tractors and trains, surged by 78% in August, according to the BLS. That trend is not likely to fade as diesel continues to hit all-time highs in September.

Goldman Sachs warned clients earlier this month that global food prices are at risk of going sharply higher due in part to soaring diesel and fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald contributed to this report.

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唐纳德·特朗普总统与加拿大不断升级的贸易战迄今为止尚未波及美国农民的一种关键进口商品：钾肥，钾肥是一种重要的肥料成分和植物营养素，几乎没有替代品。

但随着贸易战持续，加拿大官员正在权衡除关税之外的其他报复措施，这种情况可能会发生变化。

本周，特朗普暗示他找到了一个替代加拿大对美国钾肥供应的方案：白俄罗斯，一个完全内陆的国家，距离美国的农业区数千英里，由俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的强人盟友统治。

特朗普在 Truth Social 上表示，他正在努力达成一项“巨额交易”，以比加拿大便宜得多的价格从白俄罗斯购买钾肥。去年，加拿大供应了美国约 90% 的钾肥进口。

特朗普称这些会谈是“对我们的农民和牧场主来说非常好的消息”。

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但美国钾肥供应转向面临诸多障碍，其中包括白俄罗斯总统卢卡申科对达成协议的疑虑。就在特朗普发布声明的几个小时前，卢卡申科表示，白俄罗斯“无法向美国大量供应”钾肥，因为今年的供应已经全部预订完毕。

今年夏天，美国对许多加拿大商品加征了50%的关税，但钾肥、原油和电力等关键进口商品却幸免于难。特朗普急于宣传美国与白俄罗斯的会谈，凸显了美国农民面临的压力，他们正因与伊朗战争相关的柴油和化肥价格飙升而遭受重创。

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您是否正苦于应对创纪录的柴油价格和不断上涨的汽油价格？分享您的故事吧！

一些分析人士怀疑，与远在数千英里之外、受到制裁的白俄罗斯达成协议，能否缓解美国长期以来对加拿大钾肥的依赖。联邦政府数据显示，去年美国进口的1300万吨钾肥中，约90%来自加拿大。

彭博行业研究高级分析师亚历克西斯·麦克斯韦尔表示：“这完全不现实。移除白俄罗斯材料的成本太高了。”

由于欧洲对白俄罗斯的制裁，麦克斯韦估计，白俄罗斯向美国出口钾肥的成本（未计利润）约为每吨200美元。这远高于美国北部邻国向美国出口钾肥的每吨130美元的成本。

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根据联邦数据，2021年，在对白俄罗斯实施进口限制之前，美国从白俄罗斯进口了约70万吨钾肥，占进口总量的5%。

TD Cowen华盛顿研究集团全球宏观研究主管克里斯·克鲁格指出，白俄罗斯钾肥已主要销往亚洲，将其运往美国的物流将“充满挑战”。

“我们仍然持怀疑态度，”克鲁格周二在给客户的一份报告中写道。

自由主义智库卡托研究所副总裁斯科特·林西科姆的措辞则更加直白。

“听着，如果你不能嘲笑总统拼命向愤怒的农民承诺，他将神奇地用来自数千英里之外的独裁小政权的少量虚构肥料来取代来自我们邻近军事盟友的大量肥料，那么你就根本没有幽默感，”Lincicome 在 X 上发帖说。

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企业已经疲于应对伊朗战争引发的供应链混乱和价格上涨。任何增加加拿大钾肥采购难度或成本的因素都会使情况雪上加霜。

根据美国劳工统计局的生产者价格指数，8月份氮肥价格同比上涨22%。

据美国劳工统计局（BLS）的数据显示，柴油（卡车、拖拉机和火车等关键车辆的动力燃料）的生产者价格在8月份飙升了78%。随着柴油价格在9月份继续创下历史新高，这一趋势不太可能消退。

高盛本月早些时候警告客户，由于与霍尔木兹海峡危机相关的柴油和化肥成本飙升，全球食品价格面临大幅上涨的风险。

CNN的伊丽莎白·布赫瓦尔德对本报道亦有贡献。