Trump faces sharper questions over possible military action on Iran

The White House insists all options remain “on the table” regarding Iran , with the Islamic Republic convulsed by nationwide protests. President Donald Trump has threatened to intervene if Tehran’s leadership unleashes greater brutality on demonstrators.

Egypt, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have launched a diplomatic push since Tuesday to de-escalate tensions. The regional allies cautioned Washington that an attack on Tehran could trigger a cascade of volatile political and economic consequences across the Middle East.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with Trump on Wednesday to urge the president to forestall military action.

Trump on Friday confirmed he held off on an attack, but dismissed the notion that it was Arab and Israeli officials who persuaded him to do so.

“Nobody convinced me. I convinced myself,” he told reporters at the White House.

The protests, which began in late December powered by dissatisfaction with Iran’s ailing economy and more general dissent aimed at its theocratic government, have spread to all 31 Iranian provinces.

Earlier this month, the country’s attorney general declared that anyone protesting would be deemed “an enemy of god,” a charge that carries the death penalty under Iranian law.

Activists say the crackdown has left at least 2,600 people dead and as many as 18,000 detained , though these figures cannot be independently confirmed as a near-total internet blackout in Iran has stanched the flow of data.

Trump, in a Truth Social post on Tuesday, encouraged Iranians to continue protesting and “take over your institutions.”

“I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS,” he added. “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

Asked on Friday if help is still on the way, Trump said “we’re going to see.” Trump asserted that “he greatly respects” that Iran halted 800 scheduled executions.

Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former U.S. Middle East negotiator, says the key question is whether Trump’s rhetoric will be matched by action.

“It will create a huge gap between his words and his deeds if he doesn’t act,” Miller said in an interview with Military Times. “And into this gap will fall a lot of American credibility.”

Miller added that for Trump, as for most American presidents, one core set of calculations is vital when using military action: “The question is not only can we do it, but should we do it, what are the implications if we do it and do we have an exit ramp.”

“Trump doesn’t seem to follow that pattern in terms of using American military power,” he explained.

The Pentagon began dispatching a number of military assets to the Middle East this week, a U.S. official told Military Times, as the president continues to weigh “very strong options.”

It is not immediately clear what specific capabilities were being relocated.

The USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been conducting routine operations in the South China Sea, appears to have turned west on Thursday, according to satellite imagery, from where it would take nearly a week to reach the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.

The Nimitz-class nuclear powered aircraft carrier is equipped with F-35C and F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets.

The USS Gerald R. Ford and its assets were moved out of the Middle East in November for operations near Venezuela.

A U.S. military raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife from their lair in Caracas involved more than 150 aircraft , according to Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

It would take about two weeks for the Ford Carrier Strike Group to move back within striking distance of Iran.

Trump still has firepower at his disposal in the region should he choose to authorize an imminent attack, however. This includes an Ohio-class submarine in CENTCOM’s area of responsibility.

Michael Eisenstadt, director of The Washington Institute’s Military and Security Studies Program, said he doesn’t expect a single U.S. strike would be enough to topple the Iranian regime — but argued a targeted attack could weaken its grip.

“Maybe [Trump] is trying for a knockout blow, which I think is an unrealistic quest,” Eisenstadt told Military Times. “But if he gives them a hard blow, he would make good on his word to avenge the blood that has been shed among the Iranian people by the regime.”

Tanya Noury is a reporter for Military Times and Defense News, with coverage focusing on the White House and Pentagon.

白宫坚称，在伊朗问题上，所有选项仍然“摆在桌面上”，而伊朗伊斯兰共和国正因全国范围内的抗议活动而陷入动荡。唐纳德·特朗普总统威胁说，如果德黑兰领导层对示威者采取更残酷的镇压手段，他将进行干预。

自周二以来，埃及、阿曼、沙特阿拉伯和卡塔尔已发起外交斡旋，力图缓和紧张局势。这些地区盟友警告华盛顿，对德黑兰的袭击可能在中东引发一系列动荡的政治和经济后果。

以色列总理内塔尼亚胡周三与特朗普通话，敦促总统阻止军事行动。

特朗普周五证实他推迟了发动袭击，但他否认是阿拉伯和以色列官员说服他这样做的说法。

“没有人说服我，是我自己说服了自己，”他在白宫告诉记者。

抗议活动始于去年 12 月下旬，起因是对伊朗疲软的经济的不满以及对伊朗神权政府的普遍不满，目前已蔓延至伊朗全部 31 个省份。

本月初，该国总检察长宣布，任何抗议者都将被视为“上帝的敌人”，根据伊朗法律，这一罪名可判处死刑。

活动人士称，镇压行动已造成至少 2600 人死亡，多达 18000 人被拘留，但由于伊朗近乎完全的互联网封锁阻断了数据流动，这些数字无法得到独立证实。

特朗普周二在 Truth Social 上发帖，鼓励伊朗人继续抗议并“接管你们的机构”。

“我已经取消了与伊朗官员的所有会面，直到无端杀害示威者的行为停止为止，”他补充道。“援助正在赶来。”

周五被问及援助是否仍在进行中时，特朗普表示“我们拭目以待”。特朗普还声称，他“非常尊重”伊朗暂停执行800起预定死刑的做法。

卡内基国际和平基金会高级研究员、前美国中东谈判代表亚伦·戴维·米勒表示，关键问题是特朗普的言辞是否会转化为实际行动。

“如果他不采取行动，他的言行之间就会出现巨大的鸿沟，”米勒在接受《军事时报》采访时说。“而美国的信誉也将因此大打折扣。”

米勒补充说，对于特朗普来说，就像对于大多数美国总统一样，在使用军事行动时，有一套核心的考量至关重要：“问题不仅在于我们能否这样做，还在于我们是否应该这样做，如果我们这样做会产生什么后果，以及我们是否有退出的途径。”

“特朗普在使用美国军事力量方面似乎并没有遵循这种模式，”他解释说。

一位美国官员告诉《军事时报》，五角大楼本周开始向中东派遣大量军事力量，因为总统仍在权衡“非常强有力的选项”。

目前尚不清楚具体迁移了哪些能力。

根据卫星图像显示，在南海进行例行作业的“亚伯拉罕·林肯”号航空母舰似乎于周四转向西行，从那里到达美国中央司令部责任区需要近一周时间。

尼米兹级核动力航空母舰配备了F-35C和F/A-18超级大黄蜂战斗机。

11 月，美国海军“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号航空母舰及其装备撤出中东，前往委内瑞拉附近海域执行任务。

据参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩将军称，美国军方出动超过 150 架飞机，突袭了委内瑞拉领导人尼古拉斯·马杜罗及其妻子在加拉加斯的藏身之处。

福特号航母打击群大约需要两周时间才能重新回到对伊朗的打击范围内。

然而，如果特朗普选择授权立即发动攻击，他在该地区仍然拥有强大的火力可供调动。这其中包括一艘位于中央司令部责任区的俄亥俄级潜艇。

华盛顿研究所军事与安全研究项目主任迈克尔·艾森施塔特表示，他不认为美国的一次打击足以推翻伊朗政权，但他认为有针对性的打击可以削弱其统治。

艾森施塔特告诉《军事时报》：“也许（特朗普）想给他们致命一击，但我认为这是不切实际的。但如果他能给他们沉重一击，他就兑现了为伊朗人民报仇的承诺，为伊朗政权所犯下的罪行讨回公道。”

Tanya Noury 是《军事时报》和《防务新闻》的记者，她的报道主要集中在白宫和五角大楼。