Melaka PRN: It’s the negotiations, silly!

The Melaka election, scheduled for late October, represents a significant test for the major political coalitions in Malaysia ahead of the general election.

Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) are working to formalize their partnership, while internal friction and strategic seat negotiations create tension among coalition members.

Concurrently, Pakatan Harapan, despite a troubled past with Bersatu, is exploring alliances to counter BN-PN's dominance.

As political maneuvering intensifies, the potential shift from identity politics to strategic alliances may influence the election's outcome, raising concerns about the health of democratic practices.

SEPTEMBER 24 — The Melaka election is a go. Questions abound if polling day, predicted for late October, witnesses the death-knell of progressive politics in the federation.

After two state elections where the relentless race-baiters won without breaking a sweat, Melaka is the most serious test before the general election.

Subterfuge Central till filing day

What happens between now and nomination day? A lot of talking, which means a lot of catering.

Interspersed with random percentage numbers issued by participants to sum up hours of the days spent discussing how to while munching karipap. “We are 70 per cent closer to an agreement, after eight days of ups and downs of 5 per cent.”

This time — thank the heavens! — the permutations are vastly reduced.

In one corner, Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) attempt to grow the partnership.

From the indirect friendship in Johor (July 11), which thereafter elevated itself into a formal no-contest pact at Negeri Sembilan (August 1), the next stage demands advances if Muafakat 2.0 is to be realised.

Hardly straightforward.

If PAS-led PN naively believed BN after two easy elections due to religious votes would concede more seats to them, in order to guarantee another sure win in Melaka, they have since been disabused of the notion.

BN Melaka has complete autonomy according to party president Zahid Hamidi to agree on terms with all suitors. Chief Minister Ab Rauf Yusoh can play hardball and he will.

For the party, Pahang, Melaka and Johor are strongholds relative to their other outposts, and will not risk losing them or destabilising the state leadership.

And key to that is to prioritise Umno Melaka over any other obligations regardless of states won.

Ab Rauf is adamant to contest all 21 seats BN won in 2021. While Anwar Ibrahim was able to strongarm Pakatan partners in 2023 to release held seats in Penang, Selangor and Negeri Sembilan to Umno, to maintain Madani unity, the Umno president is both reluctant and incapable to force Umno warlords to accommodate the “bigger picture”.

Umno’s reticence causes friction in PN. PAS together with its soulmate Parti Wawasan Negara, under Umno’s terms, contest only in seven seats. Add the reality that four of those are DAP held, they’d rather let Gerakan lose not too badly in them. Three seats for PAS and Wawasan to share belittles them both.

Yet, PAS have said Malay unity trumps seat share. But after doing their bit in Johor and Negeri Sembilan, they’d expect Umno to do more giving than just taking.

Can Akmal Saleh, Umno Youth chief, state exco and PAS fan, sway his party?

In the unlikely scenario the seat negotiations hit a wall, the fallout turns into an avalanche.

In the other corner, Pakatan Harapan is trying hard to prove the adage “In politics, there are no permanent friends and no permanent enemies—only permanent interests.”

Six years after the calamitous breakup which ended Pakatan’s first federal government and ushered in Bersatu-led PN, Muhyiddin Yassin’s boys are sitting down with Anwar’s boys.

There is a simple reason why both – battered in the last few months – are willing to set aside the past.

Politics does not reward losers and Pakatan feels a win, however it arrives, can turn a corner with an expected general election in 2027. Bersatu is desperate for any uplift.

Media scrutiny is immense after Muhyiddin had four charges against him in his corruption trial downgraded into DNAA (discharge not amounting to an acquittal) on September 15.

The only faction which may hold back a Pakatan-Bersatu reunion is DAP. The Machiavellian stratagem risks estranging its base supporters.

Any slip-up by Pakatan, Bersama aims to benefit from on voting day. Eyes are on their 15 announced races.

But all the preps to nomination day will be coloured by developments next door in Negeri Sembilan. Which asks what is Muafakat 2.0 in terms of our realpolitik?

It’s a national proposition played out in state contests. If Negeri Sembilan is so quickly plagued by a series of indecisions and its government associated with that national proposition — Malay unity as raison d’être and the precursor of stability — then it casts doubt on its viability.

The switch could be from identity politics to the safer choice despite its contradictions — which is Pakatan Harapan.

Funnily, BN used to be the safer choice, in the minds of the people.

The pacts determine the campaign and even more the outcomes.

If BN-PN walk side by side, victory is probable.

Pakatan does not want that. A three- or four-way state election is far more palatable.

Understanding that how people gang up in the two to three weeks based on short-term arrangements made in meeting rooms decide the election, rather than how the various parties and coalitions campaign should ring alarm bells.

The parties are talking their way to put voters in a spot, in a first-past-the-post system.

A BN-PN compact only means two very distinct groups share their votes despite antithetical views on government and policy-making.

Again, the trend where ideas, spending and organisation take a backseat to plain stacking among majoritarian parties is a threat to our democratic health.

However, Pakatan makes its own bed.

The hard choices are on the table and if it chooses expediency over principles time and time again, it ends up looking like its opponents.

Bersatu is not the way forward. But fear can force those in decline, even if that decline is not terminal, to abandon reason.

Melaka 2026, where the party negotiators determine the outcome rather than the voters.

* This is the personal opinion of the columnist.

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定于10月下旬举行的马六甲州选举，对马来西亚主要政治联盟而言，是大选前的一次重大考验。

国民阵线（BN）和国民联盟（PN）正在努力正式确立合作关系，但内部摩擦和战略席位谈判却造成了联盟成员之间的紧张关系。

与此同时，尽管希望联盟与土著团结党之间有过不愉快的过往，但它仍在寻求结盟以对抗国阵和国盟的统治地位。

随着政治博弈加剧，身份政治向战略联盟的潜在转变可能会影响选举结果，引发人们对民主实践健康状况的担忧。

9月24日——马六甲州选举已确定举行。预计在10月下旬举行的投票日是否会成为联邦进步政治的丧钟，人们对此充满疑问。

在前两次州选举中，煽动种族仇恨的人毫不费力地获胜，马六甲州选举是全国大选前最严峻的考验。

诡计中心直至提交日

从现在到提名日之间会发生什么？大量的讨论，这意味着大量的餐饮安排。

期间穿插着参与者随机给出的百分比数字，用来总结他们一边吃咖喱角一边讨论如何达成协议所花费的时间。“经过八天5%的起伏，我们离达成协议又近了70%。”

这一次——谢天谢地！——排列组合大大减少了。

在一角，国阵（BN）和国民联盟（PN）试图加强合作关系。

从柔佛（7 月 11 日）的间接友谊，到后来在森美兰（8 月 1 日）达成的正式互不竞争协议，下一阶段需要取得进展，才能实现 Muafakat 2.0。

并非如此简单。

如果伊斯兰党领导的国民联盟天真地认为，国阵在两次因宗教选票而轻松获胜后，会为了确保在马六甲再次稳操胜券而让出更多席位，那么他们现在已经醒悟，这种想法是错误的。

据国阵主席扎希德·哈米迪称，马六甲国阵拥有完全的自主权，可以与所有追求者达成协议。首席部长阿布·拉乌夫·尤索夫可以采取强硬立场，而且他也会这样做。

对于该党而言，彭亨州、马六甲州和柔佛州是相对于其其他前哨阵地而言的堡垒，他们不会冒失去这些地区或破坏州领导层稳定的风险。

关键在于，无论赢得哪个州，都要将巫统马六甲的利益置于任何其他义务之上。

阿布·拉乌夫坚决要竞选国阵在2021年赢得的全部21个席位。虽然安华·易卜拉欣在2023年能够迫使希望联盟的伙伴们将槟城、雪兰莪和森美兰的席位让给巫统，以维护马达尼联盟的团结，但巫统主席安华既不愿也无力迫使巫统大佬们顾全大局。

巫统的沉默导致国盟内部摩擦。根据巫统的条件，伊斯兰党及其盟友国家希望党只能竞选七个席位。考虑到其中四个席位已被民主行动党把持，他们宁愿让民政党在这些席位上输得不惨。伊斯兰党和国家希望党只能瓜分三个席位，这对双方来说都是一种贬低。

然而，伊斯兰党表示，马来人的团结比席位分配更为重要。但他们在柔佛州和森美兰州都做出了贡献之后，希望巫统能够做出更多让步，而不仅仅是索取。

巫统青年团团长、州行政议员兼伊斯兰党支持者阿克马尔·萨利赫能否左右他的党派？

如果席位谈判陷入僵局（虽然这种情况不太可能发生），其后果将如雪崩般爆发。

另一方面，希望联盟正努力证明那句谚语：“在政治中，没有永远的朋友，也没有永远的敌人——只有永远的利益。”

在灾难性的分裂结束了希望联盟的第一届联邦政府，并迎来了土著团结党领导的国民联盟之后六年，慕尤丁·亚辛的部下正与安华的部下坐在一起。

这两个人——在过去的几个月里都饱受打击——都愿意放下过去，原因很简单。

政治不会奖励失败者，希望联盟认为，无论以何种方式取得胜利，都能在预计于2027年举行的大选中扭转局面。土著团结党则迫切需要任何提振。

9月15日，穆希丁贪污案中的四项指控被降级为DNAA（不构成无罪释放），此后媒体对他进行了巨大的审查。

唯一可能阻碍希望联盟与土著团结党重新合并的派系是民主行动党。这种权谋策略可能会疏远其基本盘支持者。

任何希望联盟的失误，都会被团结联盟（Bersama）在投票日伺机利用。各方目光都集中在他们已宣布参选的15场选举上。

但所有提名日前的准备工作都将受到邻州森美兰州事态发展的影响。这就引出了一个问题：就我们当前的现实政治而言，Muafakat 2.0 的意义何在？

这是一个在州级选举中上演的全国性命题。如果森美兰州如此迅速地陷入一系列优柔寡断的困境，而其政府又与这一全国性命题——马来人团结作为存在的理由和稳定的先决条件——紧密相连，那么这无疑会让人对其可行性产生怀疑。

这种转变可能是从身份政治转向更安全的选择——尽管存在矛盾，但希望联盟（Pakatan Harapan）就是一个更安全的选择。

有趣的是，在人们心目中，国阵曾经是更安全的选择。

这些协议决定了竞选的走向，甚至决定了竞选的结果。

如果国阵和国盟携手并进，胜利指日可待。

希望联盟不希望这样。三方或四方参与的州选举更容易被接受。

意识到人们在两到三周内根据会议室里达成的短期协议结成联盟，决定选举结果，而不是各个政党和联盟的竞选活动，这应该敲响警钟。

在简单多数制选举制度下，各党派都在通过各种说辞让选民陷入两难境地。

国阵与国盟达成协议仅仅意味着两个截然不同的团体尽管在政府和政策制定方面持有截然相反的观点，却共享选票。

再次强调，多数党之间单纯的权力整合，使得思想、支出和组织都退居次要地位，这对我们的民主健康构成了威胁。

然而，希望联盟自食其果。

艰难的选择摆在眼前，如果它一再选择权宜之计而非原则，最终只会落得和它的对手一样的下场。

土著团结党并非出路。但恐惧会迫使那些走向衰落的人，即便这种衰落并非不可逆转，放弃理性。

2026 年马六甲，政党谈判代表将决定选举结果，而不是选民。

* 这是专栏作家的个人观点。

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