UK military’s 10-year spending plan isn’t affordable, committee finds

LONDON — A powerful U.K. parliamentary committee has reported what it says is the “largest affordability gap” since 2012 between the Defence Ministry’s budget and equipment requirements .

The Public Accounts Committee’s review, released March 8, comes two days after the government opted not to allocate extra funding for the military in its 2024 budget.

The deficit for the 10-year equipment plan, which the ministry published late last year and begins in 2023, will amount to £16.9 billion (U.S. $21.5 billion), the committee found. However, that could grow by a further £12 billion if the individual armed services each took the same approach to stating their equipment requirement costs, the committee noted.

The committee reviews the 10-year defense equipment plan annually as part of its role in overseeing how the government spends taxpayers’ money. The committee has consistently cast doubt on the affordability of the ministry’s equipment plans, but the latest report is especially critical.

The 10-year plan, based on financial data from March 31, 2023, saw the ministry allocate an equipment budget of £288.6 billion over the following decade to 2033 — a £46.3 billion rise on the figures presented from 2022.

“However, forecast costs have increased by £65.7 to £305.5 billion, resulting in a £16.9 billion deficit between the MoD’s capability requirements and the available budget,” the committee reported.

That deficit could grow to £29 billion were the separate armed services to be consistent in the method they use to price their equipment requirements, the committee noted. For example, the inquiry found the Royal Navy includes the costs of all capabilities the government expects the service to deliver, whereas the Army only includes those capabilities it can afford.

Committee figures show this can have a significant impact on forecast costs. For instance, the Royal Navy’s decision to change its previous policy of only including costs it can afford, to predicted costs for capabilities the ministry expects it to deliver, resulted in a deficit of £15.3 billion in the latest plan, compared with a surplus of £700 million in the 2023 equipment plan.

The main cause of the cost increases reported by the committee is the ministry’s decision to fully fund Britain’s defense nuclear enterprise, according to the report.

The ministry has agreed to a minimum 10-year budget with the Treasury at a price tag of £109.8 billion for nuclear activities over the period.

The principal cost for the nuclear program is the construction of four Dreadnought-class nuclear missile submarines made by BAE Systems. They are to enter service in the coming decade. However, a new warhead program and other nuclear-related initiatives together dwarf spending on individual conventional weapons procurement.

British officials visit a nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine on Sept. 10, 2023, following its patrol at sea as part of the country's nuclear deterrent. (Bill Spurr/British Royal Navy)

Maintaining the nuclear deterrent is one of the ministry’s top defense priorities. If addition funds are needed for the nuclear program, accounts for conventional equipment will be further squeezed, the report noted.

Costs at the Defence Nuclear Organisation, which is responsible for the U.K.’s nuclear deterrent — have increased by £38.2 billion since the government released last year’s plan, the committee said.

‘Unpleasant, short-term decisions’

Inflation and the foreign exchange rate have also taken their toll on Britain’s budget. The ministry estimates inflation will add almost £11 billion to its costs over the 10-year period.

Despite the ailing condition of the Defence Ministry’s finances, the report said, the department has put off making major decisions about canceling programs it cannot afford.

“Instead, it has optimistically assumed that the plan would be affordable if the government fulfilled its long-term aspiration to spend 2.5% of GDP [gross domestic product] on defense each year, despite there being no guarantee on whether this will happen,” the report noted.

Everything that does not fall under the nuclear budget will experience severe pressure, said Malcolm Chalmers, the deputy director general at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.

“The government is going to have to make some unpleasant, short-term decisions between different conventional equipment capabilities at a time when the Ukraine war is shining the spotlight on neglected capabilities in which our armed forces clearly need to invest more,” he said.

“After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many European countries are increasing their defense budgets rapidly , including Germany, the Scandinavian countries, the exposed eastern countries and quite a number of others as well. The U.K. government seems to have decided, given the wider fiscal squeeze and the priority being given to tax cuts, that there will be no more money for defense in this budget.” he added.

Indeed, the Defence Ministry is becoming “increasingly reliant” on allies to protect British interests, the committee said, “which carries the risk that such support might not always be available.”

Last year, the ministry told the National Audit Office, the government’s financial watchdog, that it was not planning to cancel programs in the short term, as that would limit the choices available to decision-makers at the next governmentwide spending review‚ which is likely this year.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has been under pressure to increase funds to rebuild Britain’s depleted military amid Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. He has reiterated the Conservative government’s ambition to increase overall defense spending from the current level of 2.1% of GDP to 2.5% during his March 6 budget speech‚ but has not provided a concrete timeline, only saying it would happen when economic conditions allow it so.

The Labour Party has pledged to reform defense, but not unveiled specific spending commitments.

A general election is expected by the end of the year, with the Labour Party currently ahead in the polls.

Andrew Chuter is the United Kingdom correspondent for Defense News.

伦敦——英国议会一个有影响力的委员会报告称，国防部预算与装备需求之间存在自 2012 年以来“最大的可负担性差距”。

公共账目委员会于 3 月 8 日发布了审查报告，两天前，政府决定不在 2024 年预算中为军队拨出额外资金。

委员会发现，国防部去年底公布的、将于2023年开始实施的十年装备计划，其赤字将高达169亿英镑（约合215亿美元）。然而，委员会指出，如果各军种都采用相同的方式申报各自的装备需求成本，那么赤字可能还会再增加120亿英镑。

该委员会每年都会审查十年国防装备计划，这是其监督政府如何使用纳税人资金的职责之一。该委员会一直对国防部装备计划的可负担性表示质疑，但最新的报告尤其尖锐。

根据截至 2023 年 3 月 31 日的财务数据，该部制定了为期 10 年的计划，计划在未来十年（至 2033 年）内拨款 2886 亿英镑用于设备采购，比 2022 年公布的数据增加了 463 亿英镑。

委员会报告称：“然而，预计成本增加了 657 亿英镑，达到 3055 亿英镑，导致国防部的能力需求与可用预算之间出现 169 亿英镑的缺口。”

委员会指出，如果各军种在装备需求定价方法上保持一致，这一赤字可能增至290亿英镑。例如，调查发现，皇家海军将政府预期其提供的所有能力的成本都计入在内，而陆军则只计入其能够负担得起的能力。

委员会数据显示，这会对预测成本产生重大影响。例如，英国皇家海军此前只将自身能够承担的成本纳入预算，而现在则将国防部预期其能够交付的能力的预测成本也纳入预算，这一改变导致最新计划出现153亿英镑的赤字，而2023年的装备计划则出现7亿英镑的盈余。

报告指出，委员会报告的成本增加的主要原因是国防部决定全额资助英国的国防核能事业。

该部已与财政部达成协议，在未来 10 年内，为核能活动提供至少 1098 亿英镑的预算。

核计划的主要支出是建造四艘由英国航空航天系统公司（BAE Systems）制造的“无畏”级核导弹潜艇。这些潜艇将在未来十年内服役。然而，新的核弹头计划和其他核相关项目的总支出远远超过单件常规武器采购的支出。

2023年9月10日，英国官员参观了一艘核动力弹道导弹潜艇，该潜艇刚刚结束海上巡逻，这是英国核威慑力量的一部分。（比尔·斯珀/英国皇家海军）

维持核威慑力量是国防部最重要的国防任务之一。报告指出，如果需要为核计划追加资金，常规装备的预算将进一步缩减。

委员会表示，负责英国核威慑力量的国防核组织的成本自政府去年公布计划以来已增加了 382 亿英镑。

“令人不快的、短视的决定”

通货膨胀和汇率波动也对英国预算造成了影响。财政部估计，未来十年通货膨胀将使其支出增加近110亿英镑。

报告称，尽管国防部的财政状况不佳，但该部门却推迟做出取消其无力承担的项目的重大决定。

报告指出，“相反，它乐观地假设，如果政府实现每年将国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 2.5% 用于国防的长期目标，那么该计划将是负担得起的，尽管无法保证这一目标能够实现。”

伦敦皇家联合军种研究所副所长马尔科姆·查尔默斯表示，所有不在核预算范围内的项目都将面临巨大压力。

他说：“在乌克兰战争凸显出我国武装部队明显需要加大投入的被忽视的能力之际，政府将不得不在不同的常规装备能力之间做出一些令人不快的短期决定。”

“在乌克兰遭到全面入侵之后，包括德国、北欧国家、易受攻击的东欧国家以及其他许多国家在内的许多欧洲国家都在迅速增加国防预算。鉴于财政紧缩形势严峻以及政府优先考虑减税，英国政府似乎已经决定，本年度预算将不再为国防拨款。”他补充道。

委员会表示，国防部确实“越来越依赖”盟友来保护英国的利益，“这存在着这种支持可能并非总是能够获得的风险”。

去年，该部向政府财政监督机构——国家审计署表示，短期内不打算取消任何项目，因为这将限制决策者在下一次政府支出审查（很可能在今年进行）时的可选项。

在俄罗斯持续入侵乌克兰的背景下，财政大臣杰里米·亨特面临着增加国防预算以重建英国受损军力的压力。他在3月6日的预算演讲中重申了保守党政府将国防开支占GDP比重从目前的2.1%提高到2.5%的目标，但他没有给出具体的时间表，只是表示会在经济条件允许的情况下实施。

工党承诺改革国防，但尚未公布具体的支出承诺。

预计年底前将举行大选，目前工党在民调中领先。

Andrew Chuter 是《防务新闻》的英国记者。