Are drones the future? Not for everything, says Polish general

KORZENIEWO, Poland — Militaries should be wary of applying lessons from the war in Ukraine and instead adapt for the battle yet to come, according to a top general in the Polish military.

While the war between Ukraine and Russia has emphasized the crucial role drones can play — and the threat they can pose to troops — Gen. Piotr Blazeusz remains unconvinced of their value during waterway crossings .

“Traditionally, you would not use drones just for a water crossing. You might use them for reconnaissance purposes to collect intelligence ahead of time, but while you are doing the actual crossing you would not really need them in the air,” the deputy chief of the General Staff told Defense News in an interview on the sidelines of the Polish-led Dragon drill held here. “You’d want them ahead, at the front, making sure there are no roadblocks, or identifying enemy positions or threats for the vehicles disembarking.”

During the March 4-5 drill, organized as part of NATO’s larger-scale Steadfast Defender exercise, drones were nowhere to be seen. A single unmanned aerial system — AeroVironment’s Puma drone — was visible during the static display portion but was reportedly not involved in the training. It had previously flown during the recently concluded NATO Brilliant Jump exercise.

In the last two years, the 2,200-kilometer-long (1,367-mile-long) Dnipro River — which flows through Russia, Belarus and Ukraine — has served as a critical part of the front line between Ukrainian and Russian forces as well as a major target for both sides.

In November, both Ukrainian and Russian officials confirmed that Ukrainian units were able to cross it and had established footholds on the east bank of the river.

Drone and aerial reconnaissance units were reportedly involved in the crossing operation, in part having provided cover for soldiers traversing and detecting Russian movements.

“Combat drones are probably of little use in a river crossing,” said Samuel Bendett, an adviser on Russian military capabilities at the Center for Naval Analyses. “What’s more important is to have ISR [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] ones flying for constant overwatch, as well as a menagerie of counter-drone and electronic warfare systems to protect personnel and equipment.”

“You would, however, need combat drones — especially tactical [first-person view drones] — if you identify an enemy position not far from the crossing trying to disrupt it with mortar, artillery and [anti-tank guided missiles], or if you locate an enemy drone unit that is using either ISR or combat drones against your attempt to cross the river,” Bendett added.

Blazeusz said one reason drones were not used as part of the Dragon demonstration at the Vistula River had to do with the smaller distance forces needed to cross.

“The Vistula crossing is only 320 meters, so it’s not that big. But if it was a longer distance, potentially you may want them, but we do have other means of communicating beyond just drones,” he explained.

In contrast, some parts of the Dnipro River in Ukraine can be nearly 1.6 kilometers long.

Some observers present at the exercise shared concerns that not everyone in the West adapts tactics fast enough to match the requirements of modern warfare, ushered in by the Russia-Ukraine war.

While countries must keep a close eye on happenings there, Blazeusz cautioned that militaries should not try to simply duplicate strategies.

“Never in history was the next war an exact copy of the previous one, so we have to be really careful about identifying lessons learnt in Ukraine and then applying them, because yes, there’s clear indications of what we need to be doing, but we shouldn’t be looking to just replicate what they’re doing over there,” he said. “We have our own set of considerations [as a country] to think about.”

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

波兰科热涅沃——波兰军方一位高级将领表示，各国军队应该谨慎地吸取乌克兰战争的教训，而应该根据即将到来的战斗情况进行调整。

尽管乌克兰和俄罗斯之间的战争凸显了无人机可以发挥的关键作用，以及它们可能对部队构成的威胁，但皮奥特·布拉泽乌什将军仍然不相信它们在水路穿越中的价值。

“传统上，你不会仅仅为了渡河而使用无人机。你可能会用它们进行侦察，提前收集情报，但在实际渡河时，你其实并不需要它们在空中飞行，”总参谋部副总参谋长在波兰主导的“龙”式联合军演间隙接受《防务新闻》采访时表示。“你会希望它们在前线，确保没有路障，或者识别敌方阵地或对下水车辆的威胁。”

在3月4日至5日举行的北约“坚定捍卫者”演习中，无人机踪迹全无。虽然在静态展示环节出现了一架无人机——AeroVironment公司的“美洲狮”无人机——但据报道它并未参与此次训练。这架无人机此前曾参加过近期结束的北约“卓越跳跃”演习。

在过去的两年里，流经俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和乌克兰、全长 2200 公里（1367 英里）的第聂伯河一直是乌克兰和俄罗斯军队之间前线的重要组成部分，也是双方的主要目标。

11 月，乌克兰和俄罗斯官员均证实，乌克兰部队已能够渡过该河，并在河东岸建立了立足点。

据报道，无人机和空中侦察部队参与了此次越境行动，部分原因是为过境士兵提供掩护并侦察俄军动向。

“作战无人机在渡河行动中可能作用不大，”海军分析中心俄罗斯军事能力顾问塞缪尔·本德特表示，“更重要的是要有情报、监视和侦察（ISR）无人机进行持续监视，以及各种反无人机和电子战系统来保护人员和装备。”

“但是，如果你发现敌方阵地距离渡口不远，正试图用迫击炮、火炮和反坦克导弹干扰渡口，或者如果你发现敌方无人机部队正在使用情报、监视和侦察 (ISR) 或作战无人机来阻止你渡河，那么你就需要作战无人机——尤其是战术无人机（第一人称视角无人机）。”本德特补充道。

Blazeusz表示，在维斯瓦河举行的“龙”式机动部队演示中没有使用无人机的原因之一是，无人机需要的兵力跨越的距离较短。

“维斯瓦河上的这个过河点只有320米，所以距离不算远。但如果距离更长，你可能就需要无人机了，不过除了无人机之外，我们还有其他通讯方式，”他解释说。

相比之下，乌克兰境内的第聂伯河某些河段长度可达近 1.6 公里。

一些在场观察人士表达了担忧，认为并非所有西方国家都能足够迅速地调整战术，以适应由俄乌战争开启的现代战争的要求。

布拉泽乌什警告说，虽然各国必须密切关注那里发生的事情，但军队不应该简单地复制战略。

“历史上从来没有哪场战争是上一场战争的翻版，所以我们必须非常谨慎地吸取乌克兰的经验教训并加以应用，因为虽然乌克兰的局势已经明确表明了我们应该做什么，但我们不能简单地照搬他们的做法，”他说。“作为一个国家，我们有自己的一套考量因素需要考虑。”

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。