China unveils new defense budget, with a 7.2% increase

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — China is raising its defense budget by 7.2% for 2024, the government announced March 5 during the second annual session of the 14th National People’s Congress.

The new budget is nearly 1.7 trillion yuan (U.S. $236.1 billion) and continues a rebound after the COVID-19 pandemic. The budget had grown 6.6% in 2020 , its lowest rate of increase for almost three decades.

“The percentage rise is the same as last year, and [it’s] the third year in a row where we’ve see an increase of 7% or more,” Meia Nouwens, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, told Defense News.

China’s military expenditure is about four times that of Japan and around 12 times larger than that of Taiwan. Beijing considers the latter island nation a rogue province and has threatened to take it back by force .

“China makes a point to note that the defense budget as a percentage of GDP [gross domestic product] is lower than that of the U.S. or NATO. Of course, the official Chinese defense budget doesn’t include all areas linked to defense,” Nouwens said.

Indeed, China’s true defense spending likely falls higher than what is officially announced. For example, its space program, which is managed by the military; defense mobilization funds; provincial military base operating costs; military pensions and benefits; dual-use research and development efforts; and paramilitary organizations like the People’s Armed Police and the Coast Guard are not incorporated into the defense budget.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank estimated that in 2022, China’s actual defense budget was 27% higher than what the country reported.

Military delegates arrive for the opening session of the National People's Congress in Beijing on March 5, 2024. (Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images)

The government also said it is targeting economic growth of about 5% in the coming year, with the defense increase clearly above this level. This represents President Xi Jinping’s continued prioritization “Chinese Communist Party security goals, including pursuing control of Taiwan while belt-tightening elsewhere,” said Andrew Erickson, a professor of strategy at the U.S. Naval War College.

However, defense spending growth is lower than the government’s overall expenditure increase of 8.6%. On the other hand, it is higher than other sectors such as public security, where spending went up 1.4%.

“The lead-up to the National People’s Congress was filled with numerous articles that mentioned Chinese officials or commentators who hinted that the increase would be reasonable and low,” Nouwens said. “It’s interesting to think about the purpose behind that messaging — whether it was intended for a domestic audience or a foreign one or both.”

“China’s economic context has not necessarily improved, and the government may have wanted to send signals that they’re not overspending on defense at the cost of other budgets. The education budget, for example, only received a 5% increase this year,” she added, noting that there was, however, a larger uptick in the science and technology budget.

The People’s Liberation Army is not enjoying the double-digit percentage increases from a decade ago, but Chinese defense spending has multiplied by a factor of 2.3 since 2013.

In delivering budget documentation to political dignitaries, Premier Li Qiang urged the government to “thoroughly implement Xi Jinping’s thoughts on strengthening the military, implement the military strategic guidelines for the new era, adhere to the party’s absolute leadership over the people’s military ... and fight hard to achieve the 100-year goal of the founding of the army.”

The PLA’s centennial occurs in 2027, and by then Xi aims to have built “a modern military.”

The same report from Li use the phrase “peaceful reunification” in reference to Taiwan. China executed more than 1,700 sorties in Taiwan’s air defense identification zone last year, compared to nearly 800 in 2021.

Li also outlined enhanced war readiness through an expansion of reserve forces, plus a pledge to improve defense-industrial capacity and coordination. Political loyalty was emphasized, too, following an ongoing anti-corruption campaign that has swept up two defense ministers and multiple generals in recent months.

Gordon Arthur is an Asia correspondent for Defense News. After a 20-year stint working in Hong Kong, he now resides in New Zealand. He has attended military exercises and defense exhibitions in about 20 countries around the Asia-Pacific region.

新西兰基督城——中国政府于3月5日在第十四届全国人民代表大会第二次会议上宣布，2024年国防预算将增加7.2%。

新预算规模接近1.7万亿元人民币（约合2361亿美元），延续了新冠疫情后的复苏势头。2020年预算增长6.6%，为近30年来最低增速。

“今年的增幅与去年相同，而且这已经是连续第三年增幅达到或超过 7% 了，”国际战略研究所高级研究员梅亚·努文斯告诉《防务新闻》。

中国的军费开支约为日本的四倍，约为台湾的十二倍。北京视台湾为叛离省份，并威胁要武力收复。

“中国特意指出，其国防预算占GDP的比例低于美国或北约。当然，官方公布的中国国防预算并不包括所有与国防相关的领域，”努文斯说。

事实上，中国的实际国防开支可能高于官方公布的数字。例如，由军方管理的太空计划、国防动员经费、省级军事基地运营成本、军人养老金和福利、两用研发项目以及武警和海警等准军事组织的开支均未计入国防预算。

斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所智库估计，2022年中国的实际国防预算比该国公布的预算高出27%。

2024年3月5日，军事代表抵达北京，参加全国人民代表大会开幕式。（Jade Gao/AFP via Getty Images）

政府还表示，其明年经济增长目标约为5%，而国防开支的增长幅度明显高于这一水平。美国海军战争学院战略学教授安德鲁·埃里克森表示，这体现了习近平主席继续优先考虑“中国共产党的安全目标，包括在其他地方紧缩开支的同时，继续控制台湾”。

然而，国防开支的增长低于政府整体支出增长8.6%。另一方面，它高于其他领域，例如公共安全领域，该领域的支出增长了1.4%。

诺文斯说：“在全国人民代表大会召开前夕，大量文章提到中国官员或评论员暗示，增幅将是合理且较低的。思考这种信息背后的目的很有意思——它是针对国内受众、国外受众，还是两者兼而有之。”

她补充说：“中国的经济形势未必有所改善，政府可能想借此发出信号，表明他们并没有为了国防开支而牺牲其他预算。例如，今年的教育预算只增长了5%。”她还指出，科技预算的增幅则更大。

虽然中国人民解放军的军费开支不像十年前那样实现了两位数的百分比增长，但自 2013 年以来，中国的国防开支已经增长了 2.3 倍。

李强总理在向政治要员递交预算文件时，敦促政府“彻底贯彻习近平加强军队思想，贯彻新时代军队战略方针，坚持党对人民军队的绝对领导……努力实现建军百年目标”。

解放军建军百年纪念日是2027年，届时习近平的目标是建成“一支现代化军队”。

李的同一份报告中也使用了“和平统一”一词来指代台湾。去年，中国在台湾防空识别区执行了超过1700架次的飞行任务，而2021年这一数字接近800架次。

李克强还概述了通过扩充预备役部队来提高战备水平的计划，并承诺提升国防工业能力和协调性。此外，他还强调了政治忠诚的重要性，此前，一场持续的反腐运动在近几个月来已导致两名国防部长和多名将军落马。

戈登·阿瑟是《防务新闻》的亚洲特派记者。在香港工作20年后，他现居新西兰。他曾到访亚太地区约20个国家，参加过军事演习和防务展览。