UK space chief flags moon mining as next conflict ‘gray zone’

FARNBOROUGH, England — Mining rare minerals on the moon could mark a new area of competition in space, though it’s too early tell whether the prospect would entail military involvement, according to the U.K.’s top military officer for space.

A scenario of nations jumping on lunar mining to refill their dried-up, terrestrial stocks has the potential for gray zone conflict, the kind of amorphous contest that transcends traditional notions of two warring parties shooting at each other, Air Vice-Marshal Paul Godfrey said at the Space Comm Expo trade show here.

For now, there is no commercial proposition for what Godfrey likened to a science fiction version of the U.S. Gold Rush of the nineteenth century.

“The cost of getting to the moon, creating a lunar base, extracting the minerals and getting them back to earth probably far outweighs mining precious minerals on the Earth,” he told Defense News in an interview.

It’s also still unclear exactly what types of rare-earth metals, critical in producing high-tech components, exist under the lunar surface. On Earth, China is a critical supplier of such ingredients. European and NATO nations are eager to diversify their supply chain as they view Beijing as an unreliable partner politically.

Godfrey characterized developments toward lunar mining as purely commercial, but, by raising the matter, made clear it has started to pop up on the radars of armed forces, with very practical questions emerging.

“Do you ring-fence your particular area on the moon if you strike gold, so to speak?” Godfrey asked.

Whether moon mining will become feasible one day depends on key technologies and ensured access to space for all, he said, adding that proliferating space debris could make the journey impossible for everyone at some point.

Reducing the cost of space launches and advancing the field of on-orbit manufacturing also are stepping stones to the vision of moon mining, Godfrey added.

Sebastian Sprenger is associate editor for Europe at Defense News, reporting on the state of the defense market in the region, and on U.S.-Europe cooperation and multi-national investments in defense and global security. Previously he served as managing editor for Defense News. He is based in Cologne, Germany.

英国范堡罗——英国负责太空事务的最高军事官员表示，在月球上开采稀有矿物可能标志着太空领域竞争的新方向，但目前判断这一前景是否涉及军事介入还为时过早。

空军副元帅保罗·戈弗雷在太空通信博览会上表示，各国争相开采月球资源以补充其枯竭的陆地资源，这种情景有可能引发灰色地带冲突，这种模糊的竞争超越了两个交战方互相射击的传统概念。

目前，戈弗雷将之比作19世纪美国淘金热的科幻版本，但还没有商业前景。

他在接受《防务新闻》采访时表示：“前往月球、建立月球基地、提取矿物并将其运回地球的成本可能远远超过在地球上开采贵重矿物的成本。”

目前尚不清楚月球表面下究竟存在哪些类型的稀土金属，而这些稀土金属对于生产高科技部件至关重要。在地球上，中国是此类材料的重要供应国。由于欧洲和北约国家认为北京在政治上是一个不可靠的伙伴，因此它们急于实现供应链多元化。

戈弗雷将月球采矿的发展描述为纯粹的商业活动，但他提出这个问题，也清楚地表明，这个问题已经开始引起军方的关注，并引发了一些非常实际的问题。

“如果你在月球上发现了金矿，你会把你在月球上的特定区域划为保护区吗？”戈弗雷问道。

他表示，月球采矿是否有可能在未来成为现实，取决于关键技术以及确保所有人都能进入太空；他还补充说，太空碎片的增多可能会在某个时候使所有人无法进入太空。

戈弗雷补充说，降低太空发射成本和推进在轨制造领域也是实现月球采矿愿景的垫脚石。

塞巴斯蒂安·斯普伦格是《防务新闻》欧洲版副主编，负责报道该地区的防务市场状况，以及美欧在防务和全球安全领域的合作和多国投资。此前，他曾担任《防务新闻》执行主编。他现居德国科隆。