Morocco’s elections: Fragmentation, disengagement and PJD’s major comeback

PAM leads as the PJD quadruples its seats and turnout hits its second-lowest level under King Mohammed VI.

Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, a member of the collective leadership of Morocco’s Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM), celebrates with party members early on September 24, 2026, after provisional election results indicated PAM had won the largest number of seats in parliament [AFP]

Morocco’s parliamentary elections have reshaped the balance between the country’s main parties amid sharply lower turnout.

According to provisional results, the Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) emerged from Wednesday’s voting as the largest party with 97 seats, up from 87 in 2021.

The National Rally of Independents (RNI), which led the government after the last election, fell from 102 seats to 66.

The Istiqlal Party dropped from 81 to 65 seats while the Justice and Development Party (PJD) staged a striking comeback, rising from just 13 seats to 54.

The remaining seats were distributed among several other parties.

Only 38,08 percent of registered voters turned out, compared with 50,86 percent in 2021. The figure was also below the 42,27 percent recorded in 2016.

Morocco has seen considerable social and political mobilisation in recent years, including protests involving younger Moroccans over employment, healthcare, education and living costs. The elections, therefore, were held against a backdrop in which political and social grievances have been expressed outside the ballot box as well as through parties and elections.

A major reshuffling of the governing party balance

The three parties that formed the outgoing government did not emerge from the elections with the same parliamentary weight.

Apart from PAM, which gained 10 seats, RNI shed 36 seats and Istiqlal lost 16.

The three parties remain among the main forces in parliament, but their relative weight has changed substantially since 2021.

RNI was the largest party after the 2021 elections and went on to lead the government. Five years later, PAM has moved into first place in the provisional results while RNI and Istiqlal are separated by just one seat.

PAM’s 97 seats put it at the starting point of the government formation process. Under Article 47 of Morocco’s Constitution, the king appoints the head of government from the political party that comes first in elections for the House of Representatives.

That gives PAM the first position in the process, but it does not give the party a parliamentary majority. A majority in the 395-member House requires at least 198 seats.

Turnout in Morocco’s legislative elections fell to 38 percent, below the levels recorded in 2021 and 2016 [AFP]

According to the provisional figures, PAM, RNI and Istiqlal could renew their three-party coalition without bringing in another party.

Together they hold 228 of the 395 seats, comfortably above the 198 needed for a majority. Whether tensions exposed during the campaign can be put aside is a separate question.

PAM and RNI spent the campaign trading accusations despite having governed together for five years. Their disagreements became part of the electoral contest itself, alongside the competition over the government’s record and the parties’ respective programmes.

The possibility of another coalition between the two parties was also questioned during the campaign.

Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri, PAM’s national coordinator, said that if RNI came first, she personally would not want to join another government led by the party. She stressed that the final decision on post-election alliances would belong to PAM’s National Council.

Mohamed Mehdi Bensaid, another senior PAM figure, also ruled out a renewed coalition with RNI if the latter finished first.

The dispute between the two parties was not limited to coalition politics. RNI accused PAM of trying to recruit its local figures and elected officials before the elections while PAM responded by pointing to defections to RNI before the 2021 elections.

With PAM now first and RNI second, those tensions will form part of the backdrop to coalition negotiations.

The PJD’s comeback is the other major change in the new parliament.

Its collapse in 2021 was dramatic. After winning 125 seats in 2016, the party was reduced to just 13 five years later.

It has now returned with 54 seats.

That puts the PJD among the four largest parties in the new parliament although it remains well below its 2016 result.

The PJD’s relationship with PAM makes the question of its possible role particularly relevant.

The two parties have long been political opponents. PJD leaders have accused PAM of being created in large part to counter the PJD and limit its political rise.

The PJD’s return to Morocco’s political centre marks a striking reversal after its collapse in the 2021 elections [Jalal Morchidi/EPA]

That criticism resurfaced after Fouzi Lekjaa joined PAM. Former PJD head of government and current party leader Abdelilah Benkirane has argued that Lekjaa’s arrival was intended to counter the PJD. That is Benkirane’s political interpretation rather than an established fact.

Lekjaa is now a senior PAM figure after joining the party’s Political Bureau. He was already a prominent public figure through his leadership of the Royal Moroccan Football Federation, which he has headed since 2014, and through his role as minister delegate in charge of the budget in the outgoing government, a post he held as a nonpartisan minister before joining PAM.

His move into party politics has brought a high-profile figure from football and government into the centre of electoral politics. His entry into PAM has also made him one of the figures being discussed in connection with the next government.

Abdellah Bouanou, one of the PJD’s leading parliamentary figures, has described his relationship with Lekjaa as a good, professional, human relationship despite the political divide between their parties.

Together, PAM, RNI, Istiqlal and the PJD hold 282 seats. Whether the PJD remains in opposition or becomes part of a future governing arrangement will depend on the negotiations that follow.

The turnout question

The reasons for nonparticipation are not uniform, and the election figures alone do not establish why individual voters stayed away from polling stations.

The 2026 figure is the second-lowest turnout recorded in parliamentary elections since King Mohammed VI succeeded his father, Hassan II, in 1999 after the 37 percent recorded in 2007.

Possible explanations for nonparticipation discussed in Morocco include dissatisfaction with established parties, economic concerns and perceptions about the effectiveness of electoral politics. These factors may differ across regions and age groups.

Regional figures underline that point. Participation was much higher in some southern regions, reaching 77 percent in Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra and 61 percent in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab.

The numbers leave two questions: Which parties can assemble the next governing majority, and what explains the decision of most registered voters not to take part?

The first will be decided through coalition negotiations. The second will require looking beyond the seat totals.

PAM领先，而PJD的席位增加了四倍，投票率达到穆罕默德六世国王统治下的第二低水平。

2026年9月24日清晨，摩洛哥真实与现代党（PAM）集体领导成员法蒂玛·埃扎赫拉·埃尔·曼苏里与党员们一起庆祝，此前初步选举结果显示PAM在议会中赢得了最多的席位。[法新社]

摩洛哥议会选举投票率大幅下降，重塑了该国主要政党之间的力量平衡。

根据初步结果，真实性和现代性党（PAM）在周三的投票中成为最大党，获得 97 个席位，比 2021 年的 87 个席位有所增加。

上次选举后领导政府的独立人士全国联盟（RNI）的席位从 102 个减少到 66 个。

独立党（Istiqlal Party）的席位从 81 个减少到 65 个，而正义与发展党（PJD）则强势反弹，席位从 13 个增加到 54 个。

剩余席位分配给了其他几个政党。

仅有 38.08% 的登记选民参与了投票，而 2021 年的投票率为 50.86%。这一数字也低于 2016 年的 42.27%。

近年来，摩洛哥经历了相当大的社会和政治动员，包括年轻一代因就业、医疗、教育和生活成本等问题而发起的抗议活动。因此，此次选举是在这样一种背景下举行的：民众的政治和社会不满情绪不仅通过政党和选举表达出来，也通过其他方式在投票箱之外得到体现。

执政党力量格局发生重大重组

组成即将卸任的政府的三个政党在选举中并没有获得相同的议会影响力。

除了 PAM 获得 10 个席位外，RNI 失去了 36 个席位，Istiqlal 失去了 16 个席位。

这三个政党仍然是议会的主要力量，但自 2021 年以来，它们的相对影响力发生了巨大变化。

2021年大选后，RNI成为最大党，并最终执政。五年后，PAM在初步计票结果中跃居榜首，而RNI和Istiqlal仅相差一席。

PAM党拥有97个席位，使其处于组阁进程的起点。根据摩洛哥宪法第47条，国王将从众议院选举中得票最高的政党中任命政府首脑。

这使得PAM在选举过程中位居榜首，但并未获得议会多数席位。在拥有395个席位的众议院中，至少需要198个席位才能获得多数席位。

摩洛哥立法选举投票率降至38%，低于2021年和2016年的水平。[法新社]

根据初步统计，PAM、RNI 和 Istiqlal 无需引入其他政党即可续签三党联盟。

他们共占据395个席位中的228个，远超获得多数席位所需的198席。竞选期间暴露出的紧张局势能否搁置，则是另一个问题。

尽管PAM和RNI已经共同执政五年，但在竞选期间，双方却互相指责。除了围绕政府政绩和各自纲领的竞争之外，他们的分歧也成为了选举竞争的一部分。

竞选期间，两党再次组建联合政府的可能性也受到了质疑。

PAM全国协调员法蒂玛·埃扎赫拉·埃尔·曼苏里表示，如果RNI胜出，她个人不愿加入该党领导的另一个政府。她强调，选举后联盟的最终决定权在于PAM全国委员会。

另一位PAM高级人物穆罕默德·迈赫迪·本赛义德也排除了如果RNI最终胜出，双方再次组建联盟的可能性。

双方的争端不仅限于联盟政治。RNI指责PAM试图在选举前拉拢其地方人物和民选官员，而PAM则反驳称，在2021年大选前，已有部分成员倒戈加入RNI。

PAM 目前排名第一，RNI 排名第二，这些紧张局势将成为组建联合政府谈判的背景之一。

正义与发展党（PJD）的回归是新一届议会的另一项重大变化。

该党在2021年的溃败是戏剧性的。2016年赢得125个席位后，五年后该党席位锐减至仅剩13个。

现在它已恢复运营，设有 54 个座位。

这使得正义与发展党（PJD）跻身新一届议会四大政党之列，尽管其得票率仍远低于 2016 年的水平。

PJD 与 PAM 的关系使得 PJD 可能扮演的角色这一问题显得尤为重要。

这两个政党长期以来一直是政治对手。正义与发展党（PJD）领导人指责人民行动党（PAM）的成立很大程度上是为了对抗正义与发展党，限制其政治崛起。

正义与发展党重返摩洛哥政治中心，标志着该党在2021年大选中惨败后，局势发生了显著逆转。[Jalal Morchidi/EPA]

在福齐·莱克贾加入人民行动党（PAM）后，这种批评再次出现。前正义与发展党（PJD）政府首脑、现任该党党魁阿卜杜拉·本基兰认为，莱克贾的加入意在对抗正义与发展党。这只是本基兰的政治解读，而非既定事实。

莱克贾加入PAM党政治局后，现已成为该党的高级人物。此前，他已是一位知名的公众人物，自2014年以来一直担任摩洛哥皇家足球联合会主席，并在即将卸任的政府中担任负责预算的部长代表。在加入PAM之前，他曾以无党派部长的身份担任该职务。

他投身政党政治，使这位来自足球界和政界的知名人物进入了选举政治的中心。他加入PAM党也使他成为下一届政府候选人之一。

正义与发展党（PJD）的主要议会人物之一阿卜杜拉·布阿努表示，尽管两党之间存在政治分歧，但他与莱克贾的关系是良好的、专业的、人际关系。

PAM、RNI、Istiqlal和PJD共拥有282个席位。PJD是继续留在反对党阵营，还是加入未来的执政联盟，将取决于接下来的谈判结果。

投票率问题

选民不参与投​​票的原因各不相同，仅凭选举数据无法确定个别选民为何没有前往投票站投票。

2026 年的投票率是自穆罕默德六世国王于 1999 年继承其父哈桑二世的王位以来，议会选举投票率第二低的年份，仅次于 2007 年的 37%。

在摩洛哥，人们讨论的不参与选举的可能原因包括对现有政党的不满、经济方面的担忧以及对选举政治有效性的看法。这些因素可能因地区和年龄群体而异。

区域数据也印证了这一点。一些南部地区的参与率要高得多，拉尤恩-萨基亚哈姆拉地区的参与率达到77%，达赫拉-瓦迪达哈卜地区的参与率达到61%。

这些数字引出了两个问题：哪些政党能够组建下一届执政多数派，以及是什么原因导致大多数登记选民决定不参与投票？

第一个问题将通过组阁谈判解决。第二个问题则需要考虑席位总数以外的因素。