What would a US diesel export ban mean for global fuel prices?

Energy experts warn US diesel export ban could increase fuel costs domestically and internationally.

Diesel prices hit $6.50 per gallon (3.79 litres) on Friday [File: Richard Vogel/AP]

Diesel prices have hit record highs as the tensions between the United States and Iran, along with the war between Russia and Ukraine, disrupt key oil and fuel trade routes.

On Friday, the average price for a gallon (3.79 litres) of diesel was $6.50, up from $5.61 a month earlier, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks fuel prices daily.

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The spike has prompted the administration of US President Donald Trump and Republican lawmakers to consider restricting US diesel exports ahead of upcoming midterm elections.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in August found that 47 percent of voters said the cost of living was the single most important factor in deciding how they would vote in the midterms — more than twice the share who cited the next-most important issue, “democratic values and norms”.

A new Marist poll also found that Americans have more confidence in Democrats than Republicans to handle the economy, with 42 percent choosing Democrats compared with 34 percent for Republicans.

Amid that voter sentiment, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Thursday that he was in touch with major oil refiners to gauge interest in a potential voluntary restriction on diesel exports, according to the Reuters news agency.

That followed remarks by Trump on Tuesday that he supported restricting diesel exports from the US, the world’s largest diesel exporter.

Energy analysts and industry groups have warned that an export ban could have unintended consequences, potentially pushing up fuel prices in the US and abroad.

Why are diesel prices so high?

Even though the US is the world’s largest diesel exporter, diesel is traded on a global market.

Disruptions to refineries in Russia and the Middle East have reduced the amount of fuel available worldwide, putting more pressure on US producers to fill the gap. In Russia, for example, drone attacks have damaged major refineries, forcing a cutback or halt in production.

“While US refineries are running at full tilt and higher than normal, the global gaps remain,” Rachel Ziemba, senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera.

It comes as US diesel supplies are also shrinking. As of September 11, inventories had fallen to 107.9 million barrels, the lowest in more than four decades, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

With global supplies tightening, diesel prices have risen around the world — including in the US. Because American producers can sell their fuel into the global market, they are drawn to the soaring global prices rather than simply setting a lower price for domestic consumers.

Why is the US considering an export ban?

In Washington, DC, leaders have flirted with the idea of pushing US companies to stop or slow exporting diesel.

Republicans have been pushing for a slowdown or outright ban of exports in an effort to lower costs for consumers ahead of the pivotal midterm elections, where cost of living is becoming a critical issue.

Such a move, they hope, would reduce local diesel prices, which is significant as diesel is used in trucks to haul food and most products, Ziemba said, adding that US diesel exports are equivalent to about 40 percent of domestic consumption.

On Tuesday, Chuck Grassley, a Republican from Iowa, called on the president to put in place a temporary halt on exports.

“I encourage President Trump to put a temporary embargo on diesel exports through executive action,” Grassley said.

Republican Senator Dan Sullivan of Alaska made a similar call: “The cost of diesel is just too damn high. I’m calling for a temporary pause of American diesel exports so that we can rebuild our reserves ahead of winter,” Sullivan said in a statement on Tuesday.

In the House of Representatives, Congressman Tim Burchett of Tennessee introduced two bills that would restrict US diesel exports: One would impose a ban through January 2027, while the other would restrict exports if the national average price reaches $5 a gallon.

The administration has not made any official policy announcements, and the White House told Al Jazeera that the president is evaluating all options.

Oil and gas industry experts say that a ban could drive up prices rather than bringing them down.

“Diesel trades on a world market, just like corn. farmers don’t sell cheaper to Americans, and refiners can’t either since they buy crude at global prices. force a lower price and they’ll make less diesel. less supply means higher prices, not lower,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X.

How would an export ban work?

A ban would prevent or restrict US refiners from selling diesel to buyers overseas, theoretically leaving more fuel available in the domestic market.

Analysts at Wood Mackenzie, a research and consulting firm, say that keeping more diesel stateside would ultimately fill up US storage tanks but also force refineries to cut production. That could affect other markets that rely heavily on US fuel, including Latin America and Europe, forcing them to compete with other global buyers for supplies and driving up prices for the global market.

Wood Mackenzie says China is the only major producer with enough spare refining capacity to potentially make up much of the shortfall.

“China is currently the only country with material spare refining capacity that could cover the loss of US refinery throughputs. However, China may well decide it is not in its interest to intercede,” analysts said.

Wood Mackenzie has warned that a ban could quickly fill US diesel inventories, forcing refiners to cut crude runs and potentially increasing US petrol imports.

That was also the view of an S&P Global analysis, which found that a complete ban could also mean that production would be reduced as storage capacity is filled up with unsold diesel. According to the analysis, that could lead to production cuts of as much as 750,000 barrels a day, which could put the US into being a net importer of petrol in the fourth quarter of this year.

Who would an export ban affect?

An export ban would affect US refiners and consumers, as well as countries that rely on US diesel.

“They [export bans] may provide temporary relief, but diesel is a global commodity. Treat one part of the system, and the effects travel elsewhere. Trade-offs are inevitable. Refiners are unlikely to cheer a blanket ban. Voluntary, controlled export reductions would generally be less disruptive in the short term,” Maksim Sonin, visiting scholar at Stanford University’s Precourt Institute for Energy, told Al Jazeera.

Disruptions to US exports could reduce the amount of fuel available on the global market. Wood Mackenzie analysts say countries in Europe and Latin America that rely heavily on US fuel could be forced to compete with other producers for supplies.

“If implemented, it would lead to European and Asian product prices increasing as the buyers of US fuel, mostly in Latin America, scramble to find new supplies, bidding up supplies. European crack spreads could widen, and overall we might see more disruptions,” Ziemba added.

“Given these issues, the US may opt for a mixture of carrots and sticks aiming to incentivise refineries to keep producing, perhaps including penalties if they cut production. There may be voluntary export quotas rather than a formal ban, and there may be exemptions for countries that provide crude oil to the US, like Mexico,” Ziemba said.

That could put pressure on consumers not only at the petrol pump but in the skies as well.

Airlines for America, an airline industry trade group, has also warned that an export ban could lead to higher prices for airlines and travellers, according to the Reuters news agency. The trade group did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

The broader concern from analysts is that restricting exports could reduce US refinery production rather than simply redirecting diesel to US consumers, potentially putting upward pressure on fuel prices both domestically and internationally.

“It’s unlikely to help US consumers much given how it fails to solve underlying problems and could backfire if refineries hold on to production. The best way to address this is to end the conflicts prompting the shortages,” Ziemba said.

能源专家警告称，美国柴油出口禁令可能会推高国内和国际燃料成本。

周五，柴油价格达到每加仑（3.79升）6.50美元。[图片：Richard Vogel/AP]

由于美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势以及俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争扰乱了重要的石油和燃料贸易路线，柴油价格已达到历史新高。

据美国汽车协会（AAA）称，周五柴油平均价格为每加仑（3.79 升）6.50 美元，高于一个月前的 5.61 美元。该协会每日追踪燃油价格。

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伊朗提出为期七天的路线图，旨在结束与美国的冲突（共四项，此为第三项）

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这一激增促使美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的政府和共和党议员考虑在即将到来的中期选举前限制美国柴油出口。

路透社/益普索8月份进行的一项民意调查发现，47%的选民表示，生活成本是决定他们在中期选举中如何投票的最重要因素——这一比例是认为“民主价值观和规范”这一第二重要问题的选民比例的两倍多。

马里斯特学院的一项最新民调还发现，美国人对民主党处理经济问题的信心高于共和党，42% 的人选择民主党，而选择共和党的仅占 34%。

据路透社报道，在这种选民情绪的影响下，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特周四表示，他正在与主要炼油商联系，以评估他们对自愿限制柴油出口的潜在兴趣。

此前，特朗普周二发表讲话，表示支持限制美国（世界上最大的柴油出口国）的柴油出口。

能源分析师和行业团体警告称，出口禁令可能会产生意想不到的后果，有可能推高美国和海外的燃料价格。

为什么柴油价格这么高？

尽管美国是世界上最大的柴油出口国，但柴油是在全球市场上交易的。

俄罗斯和中东炼油厂的停产导致全球燃料供应量减少，给美国生产商填补缺口带来了更大压力。例如，在俄罗斯，无人机袭击破坏了多家大型炼油厂，迫使其减产或停产。

“虽然美国炼油厂的产能正以高于正常水平的水平全力运转，但全球缺口依然存在，”新美国安全中心高级兼职研究员雷切尔·齐姆巴告诉半岛电视台。

与此同时，美国柴油供应也在减少。据美国能源信息署的数据，截至9月11日，美国柴油库存已降至1.079亿桶，为40多年来的最低水平。

由于全球供应趋紧，柴油价格在全球范围内上涨，包括美国在内。因为美国生产商可以将燃料销往全球市场，所以他们更倾向于跟随全球价格飙升的趋势，而不是简单地为国内消费者设定较低的价格。

美国为何考虑实施出口禁令？

在华盛顿特区，一些领导人曾考虑过敦促美国公司停止或减缓柴油出口。

共和党人一直在推动放缓甚至彻底禁止出口，以期在关键的中期选举前降低消费者的成本，因为生活成本正成为一个关键问题。

Ziemba表示，他们希望此举能够降低当地的柴油价格，这意义重大，因为卡车需要使用柴油来运输食品和大多数产品。他还补充说，美国的柴油出口量约占国内消费量的40%。

周二，来自爱荷华州的共和党人查克·格拉斯利呼吁总统暂时停止出口。

格拉斯利说：“我鼓励特朗普总统通过行政命令暂时禁止柴油出口。”

阿拉斯加州共和党参议员丹·沙利文也提出了类似的呼吁：“柴油价格实在太高了。我呼吁暂时停止美国柴油出口，以便我们在冬季来临前重建储备。”沙利文周二在一份声明中表示。

在众议院，田纳西州众议员蒂姆·伯切特提出了两项​​限制美国柴油出口的法案：一项法案规定，禁令将持续到 2027 年 1 月；另一项法案规定，如果全国平均价格达到每加仑 5 美元，则限制出口。

政府尚未发布任何官方政策声明，白宫告诉半岛电视台，总统正在评估所有选项。

石油和天然气行业专家表示，禁令可能会推高油价，而不是降低油价。

GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩在X网站上发帖称：“柴油和玉米一样，在国际市场上交易。农民不会以更低的价格卖给美国人，炼油商也无法降低价格，因为他们是以全球价格购买原油的。如果强行压低价格，他们就会减少柴油产量。供应减少意味着价格上涨，而不是下跌。”

出口禁令会如何运作？

禁令将阻止或限制美国炼油商向海外买家出售柴油，理论上将使国内市场有更多燃料供应。

研究咨询公司伍德麦肯兹的分析师表示，将更多柴油留在美国最终会填满美国的储油罐，但也会迫使炼油厂减产。这可能会影响严重依赖美国燃料的其他市场，包括拉丁美洲和欧洲，迫使它们与其他全球买家争夺供应，并推高全球市场价格。

伍德麦肯兹表示，中国是唯一拥有足够剩余炼油产能的主要生产国，有可能弥补大部分产能缺口。

分析人士表示：“目前，中国是唯一拥有足够剩余炼油产能来弥补美国炼油产能损失的国家。然而，中国很可能认为介入此事并不符合自身利益。”

伍德麦肯兹警告称，禁令可能会迅速填满美国柴油库存，迫使炼油商减少原油加工，并可能增加美国汽油进口。

标普全球的一项分析也持相同观点，该分析指出，全面禁运可能意味着由于未售出的柴油填满存储容量，产量将会减少。分析称，这可能导致每日减产多达75万桶，从而使美国在今年第四季度成为汽油净进口国。

出口禁令会影响哪些人？

出口禁令将影响美国炼油商和消费者，以及依赖美国柴油的国家。

“出口禁令或许能带来暂时的缓解，但柴油是全球性商品。如果只针对系统的一部分进行调整，其影响就会波及其他方面。权衡取舍是不可避免的。炼油商不太可能乐见全面禁令。自愿、可控的减产措施在短期内通常会造成较小的干扰，”斯坦福大学普雷科特能源研究所访问学者马克西姆·索宁告诉半岛电视台。

美国出口中断可能导致全球燃料供应量减少。伍德麦肯兹分析师表示，严重依赖美国燃料的欧洲和拉丁美洲国家可能被迫与其他生产国竞争燃料供应。

Ziemba补充道：“如果这项措施得以实施，将导致欧洲和亚洲的成品油价格上涨，因为美国燃油的买家（主要在拉丁美洲）会争相寻找新的供应来源，从而推高供应价格。欧洲的裂解价差可能会扩大，总体而言，我们可能会看到更多的供应中断。”

“鉴于这些问题，美国可能会采取胡萝卜加大棒相结合的策略，旨在激励炼油厂继续生产，或许还会对减产行为处以惩罚。可能会实行自愿出口配额制，而不是正式禁令，而且可能会对向美国供应原油的国家，例如墨西哥，给予豁免，”齐姆巴说。

这不仅会给加油站的消费者带来压力，也会给航空业的消费者带来压力。

据路透社报道，美国航空协会（Airlines for America）——一个航空业贸易组织——也警告称，出口禁令可能导致航空公司和旅客面临更高的价格。该贸易组织未回应半岛电视台的置评请求。

分析人士普遍担心，限制出口可能会减少美国炼油厂的产量，而不是简单地将柴油重新分配给美国消费者，这可能会对国内和国际燃料价格造成上行压力。

“鉴于此举未能解决根本问题，而且如果炼油厂继续维持产量，可能会适得其反，因此不太可能对美国消费者有所帮助。解决这个问题的最佳方法是结束导致短缺的冲突，”齐姆巴说。