Foreign tourist arrivals already down 3.65% with fears the flooding crisis may impact the Chinese market

September 29, 2026 at 12:33 am

in Economy , Living , Media , Politics , Thailand

Thailand’s tourism industry is heading into its decisive high season in deepening trouble, with foreign arrivals down 3.65% this year. The country has welcomed just 22.67 million visitors and now needs another 10.33 million to reach its already reduced 33 million target. That requires about 108,000 arrivals every day through year-end. Now, severe Bangkok flooding, transport disruption and Suvarnabhumi’s baggage crisis have delivered another blow as Thailand fights to recover lost ground.

Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Phancharoenworakul reports arrivals down 3.65%, as Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool warns of flood risks to tourism. ( Source: Matichon )

Thailand’s foreign tourism industry enters its crucial final quarter with arrivals still 3.65% below last year. At the same time, severe Bangkok flooding has created fresh uncertainty as China’s Golden Week begins.

The disruption arrived just as Chinese arrivals surged more than 42% in one week. Notably, flood images have since spread across Chinese social media. Bangkok transport has suffered serious disruption, while Suvarnabhumi Airport has battled major baggage problems.

Thailand’s airports remain open and most major tourist destinations continue operating normally. So far, there is no evidence of widespread cancellations. Even so, the disruption comes as Thailand needs a powerful fourth quarter to reach reduced tourism targets. The country is already running behind last year. In particular, the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is relying heavily on China to drive the high season.

Foreign arrivals fall 3.65% as China leads weekly rebound and tourism receipts reach ฿1.105 trillion

Tourism and Sports Minister Surasak Panjaroenworakul released the latest foreign tourism figures on Monday. Thailand recorded 22,666,429 foreign arrivals between January 1 and September 26. That represented a 3.65% decline against the corresponding period last year. During that period, foreign visitors generated an estimated ฿1.105 trillion in tourism receipts.

China remained Thailand’s largest source market, with 3,822,928 arrivals. Malaysia followed with 2,891,908 visitors, while India supplied 1,680,725. Russia accounted for another 1,249,801 arrivals. Separately, South Korea completed the top five with 831,716 visitors.

The latest weekly figures, however, showed a considerably stronger picture. Thailand received 482,751 foreign visitors between September 20 and September 26. That was 18,551 more than during the previous week. As a result, weekly foreign arrivals increased by 4%. Thailand received an average of 68,964 foreign visitors each day.

Crucially, China returned to the top of the weekly rankings. Thailand received 94,343 Chinese visitors during the seven-day period. Malaysia followed with 60,254 arrivals, while India supplied another 40,284. Japan provided 24,853 visitors. In addition, Taiwan completed the top five with 24,135.

The strongest movement came from China. Chinese arrivals jumped 42.62% compared with the previous week. In parallel, Taiwanese arrivals increased by 33.25%, helped by the Mid-Autumn Festival. Taiwan consequently moved from sixth to fifth among Thailand’s largest weekly tourism markets. Indian arrivals also climbed by 17%.

Asian markets drive weekly gains before Golden Week as Bangkok flooding clouds the tourism outlook

Elsewhere, the figures moved sharply in the opposite direction. Malaysian arrivals fell 13% from the previous week. Japanese arrivals also dropped 18.5%. Despite those falls, nearby Asian markets drove the overall weekly improvement. Travel before China’s National Day holiday contributed significantly to the increase.

South Korea’s Chuseok holiday also supported regional travel. Related movements increased 32.73% from the previous week. By contrast, several long-haul markets slowed. The ministry linked that decline to travellers postponing journeys until the October high season.

Officials had therefore expected another increase during the coming week. China is entering its National Day holiday period. South Korea, meanwhile, marks National Foundation Day. Hong Kong also has its National Day holiday. Against that backdrop, severe flooding across Bangkok has suddenly complicated the outlook.

TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool has expressed particular concern about the Chinese market. The floods have already attracted substantial international attention. Images show flooded Bangkok roads, stranded vehicles and serious transport disruption. More importantly, those images have spread rapidly across Chinese social media immediately before Golden Week.

The problem does not amount to a nationwide shutdown of Thailand’s tourism infrastructure. Suvarnabhumi Airport remains open, while Don Mueang Airport is also operational. Moreover, there has been no closure of Thai airspace. International flights have also avoided widespread cancellations.

Floods disrupt airport journeys as Suvarnabhumi baggage delays add pressure before Golden Week

On another front, Thailand’s other major tourism destinations remain open. Phuket has not been directly affected by Bangkok’s flooding. Neither have Krabi, Koh Samui, Chiang Mai or Chiang Rai. Movement through Bangkok, however, has become significantly more difficult.

Flooded roads have disrupted journeys across the capital. At the same time, severe congestion has increased travel times between hotels and airports. Some public transport services have also faced disruption. Accordingly, TAT advised some travellers to allow another two to three hours for airport journeys. Hotels have also changed transfer routes and deployed additional vehicles for guests.

Adding to the pressure, the flooding coincided with serious baggage disruption at Suvarnabhumi Airport. The airport itself never closed and flights continued. However, flooded roads prevented replacement ground workers from reaching the airport. Baggage handling subsequently came under severe pressure as staff shortages mounted.

Passengers reported waits of up to six hours for luggage. Others departed Thailand without their checked bags. In one case, a Thai Airways flight carrying Asian Games athletes departed almost eight hours late. Thai Airways drafted office and management employees into ground operations. Later, military personnel were deployed to help clear stranded luggage.

Flood images spread across Chinese social media as independent travellers weigh changes to Thailand trips

Thailand therefore faced two highly visible tourism problems simultaneously. Bangkok was struggling with extensive flooding and transport disruption. At its main international gateway, Suvarnabhumi was battling a major baggage backlog. Both problems emerged immediately before one of China’s largest annual travel periods.

Still, Ms Thapanee stressed that current conditions differ substantially from Thailand’s catastrophic 2011 floods. Those floods affected much larger sections of the economy and transport infrastructure. The present disruption is considerably more concentrated geographically. Yet tourism officials are closely watching how overseas travellers perceive the situation.

That question is particularly important in China. TAT’s Chengdu office has described the immediate challenge as a perception crisis. Chinese social-media users have seen extensive images of flooded Bangkok roads. Coverage has spread through WeChat and Weibo. Likewise, Xiaohongshu, Douyin, Toutiao and Baidu News have carried flood-related material.

Potential Chinese visitors are therefore seeing flood images immediately before making final travel decisions. This matters because many Chinese tourists now travel independently. They are not necessarily locked into large organised tour groups. As a consequence, they can change hotels, destinations and itineraries relatively quickly.

TAT expects 250,000 Chinese visitors and a ฿11.5 billion spend despite Bangkok flood disruption

Some travellers could avoid Bangkok while continuing their Thailand holidays. Phuket, Krabi, Chiang Mai and Koh Samui remain possible alternatives. Alternatively, travellers can postpone journeys or select another destination. TAT is therefore watching late bookings closely as Golden Week gets under way.

Before the flooding, expectations for the Chinese holiday period were strong. TAT expected approximately 250,000 Chinese visitors during the extended holiday period. The forecast covered September 25 through October 7. Thus, it included both the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week travel periods.

The projected arrival figure represented a 24% year-on-year increase. Furthermore, TAT expected those Chinese visitors to generate approximately ฿11.5 billion. That would represent a 37% increase in tourism spending. Advance indicators had also pointed towards a strong holiday period.

October flight bookings from China were reported to be 16% higher. At the same time, searches for flights to Thailand had increased by 24%. Demand was particularly strong from Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Hangzhou and Chongqing. TAT was therefore preparing for a significant Chinese tourism surge.

TAT steps up China communications as officials watch floodwaters, transport and Golden Week bookings

As part of this push, the agency had promoted longer stays during the combined holiday period. The campaign formed part of its Nihao Month 2026 programme. It was designed to strengthen Thailand’s recovery in the crucial Chinese tourism market. Then Bangkok’s floods arrived only days before the major holiday period.

For now, Ms Thapanee said available information did not show widespread cancellations. TAT has also found no evidence of a severe nationwide impact across the Chinese market. The agency still expects substantial arrivals during China’s October 1-7 National Day holiday. The final result, however, could depend heavily on conditions over the coming days.

TAT regards the next two to three days as particularly important. Officials are watching how quickly Bangkok’s floodwaters recede. They are also monitoring whether transport conditions return to normal. Meanwhile, the agency is following the information reaching potential Chinese visitors.

In response, TAT offices across China have been instructed to intensify communications. Officials are explaining conditions in Bangkok and unaffected parts of Thailand. They are also emphasising that Thailand’s major airports remain operational. Additionally, the agency is highlighting major tourist destinations which remain open.

Chinese tourism remains crucial as Thailand’s annual foreign arrivals fall further behind last year

TAT’s Chengdu office has examined several possible outcomes. Its central assessment assumes Bangkok’s flooding eases quickly. Under that scenario, the impact on Chinese arrivals would remain manageable. The office estimated a possible 5-10% shortfall against earlier expectations in western Chinese markets.

A renewed bout of heavy rainfall could worsen that picture. Persistent flooding could also produce a larger decline. Importantly, that estimate remains a scenario rather than a recorded tourism loss. There is still no evidence of a large cancellation wave.

The floods have nevertheless struck while Thailand’s broader tourism recovery is already running behind last year. Thailand received 20,935,135 foreign visitors during the first eight months of 2026. That represented a 3.08% year-on-year decline. By September 26, the deficit had widened to 3.65%.

The latest weekly improvement has therefore not erased the accumulated decline. China has actually been one of Thailand’s stronger tourism markets this year. Chinese arrivals during the first eight months were approximately 16% higher year on year. Other important markets, however, weakened sharply.

Malaysian arrivals during January-August fell 11.87%. South Korean arrivals dropped 24.78%. Meanwhile, arrivals from the United Kingdom declined 3.44%. Taken together, those falls increase the importance of continued Chinese growth during Thailand’s final tourism quarter.

Thailand needs a powerful high season as TAT cuts expectations and targets up to 33 million visitors

Thailand now enters its main high season needing a substantial acceleration in foreign arrivals. TAT’s current base-case projection is approximately 32.6 million to 32.7 million visitors during 2026. In addition, the agency continues pursuing a figure of approximately 33 million.

TAT is also targeting approximately ฿2.7 trillion in total tourism revenue. International tourism is expected to contribute approximately ฿1.6 trillion. Domestic tourism, meanwhile, is expected to generate another ฿1.1 trillion. Those ambitions have already been reduced substantially during the year.

Initially, TAT envisaged as many as 36.7 million foreign visitors during 2026. The original strategy also targeted approximately ฿3 trillion in overall tourism receipts. By June, however, the agency was working towards approximately 33 million international visitors.

The latest figures expose the scale of the required final-quarter acceleration. Thailand had recorded approximately 22.67 million foreign arrivals by September 26. Accordingly, another 10.33 million visitors are required to reach 33 million.

Thailand needs 108,000 daily arrivals to reach 33 million as 30 million stays within reach this year

That would require approximately 108,000 foreign arrivals every day during the remaining 96 days. By comparison, Thailand averaged approximately 84,000 daily arrivals through September 26. October through December is Thailand’s powerful tourism high season. Even so, the arithmetic shows how heavily the annual target depends on that seasonal surge.

Even TAT’s lower 32.6 million projection requires another 9.93 million visitors. That means more than 103,000 arrivals per day over the remaining period. In effect, the final quarter must perform substantially above the year-to-date daily average.

A 30 million annual result, meanwhile, would require another 7.33 million foreign visitors. That represents approximately 76,000 arrivals each day through December 31. On the current figures, 30 million therefore remains within reach. Such a result, however, would represent a substantial retreat from Thailand’s 2024 tourism recovery.

Thailand recorded 35.546 million foreign visitors in 2024. A 30 million result would consequently mean approximately 5.55 million fewer visitors. That represents a decline of about 15.6% from the 2024 level.

Beyond that comparison, 30 million would remain far below Thailand’s pre-pandemic tourism peak. Thailand welcomed approximately 39.9 million foreign visitors in 2019. A 30 million result would therefore remain about 24.8% below that record.

Golden Week becomes crucial as China rebounds strongly but Bangkok floods threaten tourism momentum

For comparison, 30 million also remains below TAT’s current base-case projection. The official expectation remains approximately 32.6 million to 33 million. Yet even the lower end requires an exceptionally strong final quarter.

China’s Golden Week was expected to provide an important early push. Indeed, the latest weekly figures suggested that acceleration had already started. Chinese arrivals jumped 42.62% in one week. At the same time, advance Chinese flight bookings were 16% higher.

Flight searches had risen another 24%. TAT was consequently preparing for approximately 250,000 Chinese visitors across the extended holiday period. Those travellers were expected to spend about ฿11.5 billion. Bangkok’s flooding has now introduced a fresh uncertainty into those projections.

Compounding the situation, the flooding coincided with baggage problems at Thailand’s principal international airport. TAT has consequently moved to counter damaging perceptions inside China. Chinese-language situation reports are being distributed across the market.

In parallel, social-media material is showing unaffected destinations operating normally. Chinese influencers and media representatives already visiting Thailand are also being encouraged to show current conditions. TAT is using WeChat, Weibo, Xiaohongshu and Douyin in that effort.

Thailand enters final quarter behind last year as reduced tourism targets demand a sharp high-season surge

The immediate concern remains concentrated on Chinese traveller confidence. Thailand’s airports continue operating, while most major tourism destinations remain open. Even so, Bangkok’s flooding and transport disruption are highly visible internationally.

Suvarnabhumi’s baggage problems have added further disruption during the same critical period. More significantly, the timing overlaps directly with Thailand’s effort to accelerate Chinese arrivals into the high season.

The latest tourism figures therefore reveal two sharply different trends. Weekly foreign arrivals increased by 4%. More importantly, Chinese arrivals surged by 42.62%. Cumulative foreign arrivals, however, remain 3.65% below last year.

Thailand is also entering the final three months of 2026. As a result, the country begins its most important tourism quarter with considerable ground still to recover.

TAT’s original 36.7 million projection has already disappeared from its current working outlook. Its present expectation is approximately 32.6 million to 33 million. Reaching 33 million requires another 10.33 million arrivals before December 31.

Reaching 32.6 million still requires almost 10 million additional visitors. Against this arithmetic, China’s Golden Week assumes greater importance in the final-quarter numbers.

Golden Week becomes first major test of flood impact as Thailand needs more than 10 million arrivals

Before the floods, TAT expected the holiday period to deliver a powerful Chinese surge. The latest weekly Chinese figures supported that expectation. Now, Bangkok’s flooding has become an unexpected test immediately as the holiday period begins.

So far, TAT has detected no widespread cancellation wave. Nonetheless, officials are watching travellers who have not completed bookings. They are also monitoring independent visitors who can quickly alter their itineraries.

The next several days should provide the first clearer evidence of the flooding’s tourism impact. At the same time, they mark the beginning of Thailand’s decisive final tourism quarter.

For now, the official total stands at 22.67 million foreign visitors through September 26. That remains 3.65% below last year. Thailand also requires more than 10 million additional arrivals to reach 33 million.

Even reaching TAT’s 32.6 million base-case figure requires almost 10 million more visitors. Consequently, the October-December high season must carry an increasingly large share of the annual total.

China remains central to Thailand’s high season as Golden Week opens amid Bangkok flood disruption

China remains central to that final-quarter performance. The market supplied 3.82 million visitors through September 26. Subsequently, Chinese arrivals surged more than 42% during the latest week.

Golden Week, however, now begins against images of flooded Bangkok roads and severe transport disruption. Suvarnabhumi has simultaneously struggled with baggage handling problems.

TAT had expected 250,000 Chinese arrivals and ฿11.5 billion in spending across the extended holiday period. Those expectations have not yet been formally abandoned. Instead, the agency is closely monitoring bookings and traveller sentiment.

The final impact will become clearer as Golden Week arrivals flow into Thailand. Until then, the underlying annual figures remain challenging. Thailand is still running behind last year, while its original 2026 tourism expectations have already been cut.

China was expected to lead the fourth-quarter acceleration. Now, the coming Golden Week figures will provide the first measure of whether that momentum continues.

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Joseph Anthony is an expat from Ireland who has lived in Thailand for the last decade. He has worked extensively in the media including editorial positions in Ireland and Thailand. He is focused on economic and business stories in Thailand as well as the expat lifestyle.

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2026年9月29日凌晨12:33

经济、生活、媒体、政治、泰国

泰国旅游业在即将到来的关键旺季之际，却陷入了更深的困境，今年外国游客入境人数下降了3.65%。该国仅接待了2267万名游客，而要达到已下调至3300万的目标，还需要1033万名游客。这意味着到年底，泰国每天需要接待约10.8万名游客。如今，曼谷严重的洪灾、交通中断以及素万那普机场的行李危机，都给泰国旅游业雪上加霜，使其难以恢复元气。

旅游与体育部长素拉萨·潘查伦沃拉库尔报告称，游客人数下降了3.65%，与此同时，泰国旅游局局长塔帕尼·吉亚派布尔警告称，洪水风险将对旅游业造成威胁。（来源：Matichon）

泰国外国旅游业进入关键的最后一个季度，但入境游客数量仍比去年同期下降3.65%。与此同时，曼谷严重的洪灾也给中国黄金周假期的到来带来了新的不确定性。

就在一周内中国游客数量激增超过42%之际，交通中断接踵而至。值得注意的是，洪水图片随后在中国社交媒体上广泛传播。曼谷交通严重受阻，素万那普机场也面临着严重的行李问题。

泰国机场仍然开放，大多数主要旅游目的地也继续正常运营。目前为止，尚未出现大范围的取消预订。即便如此，此次中断正值泰国需要强劲的第四季度业绩才能实现下调后的旅游目标之际。该国目前的业绩已经落后于去年同期。尤其值得一提的是，泰国旅游局（TAT）严重依赖中国市场来推动旅游旺季的到来。

外国游客入境人数下降3.65%，中国引领每周反弹，旅游收入达到1.105万亿泰铢

旅游与体育部长素拉萨·潘加伦沃拉库尔周一公布了最新的外国游客入境数据。今年1月1日至9月26日，泰国共接待外国游客22,666,429人次，较去年同期下降3.65%。同期，外国游客为泰国创造了约1.105万亿泰铢的旅游收入。

中国仍然是泰国最大的客源市场，游客人数达3,822,928人次。马来西亚紧随其后，游客人数为2,891,908人次，印度游客人数为1,680,725人次。俄罗斯游客人数为1,249,801人次。韩国游客人数为831,716人次，位列第五。

然而，最新的周度数据显示情况明显好转。9月20日至26日期间，泰国接待了482,751名外国游客，比前一周增加了18,551人次。因此，当周外国游客入境人数增长了4%。泰国平均每天接待68,964名外国游客。

至关重要的是，中国重回周榜榜首。过去七天，泰国接待了94,343名中国游客。马来西亚紧随其后，接待了60,254名游客，印度则贡献了40,284名。日本接待了24,853名游客。此外，台湾以24,135名游客位列第五。

最强劲的增长来自中国。中国游客人数较前一周增长了42.62%。与此同时，受中秋节的推动，台湾游客人数也增长了33.25%。台湾游客人数因此从泰国每周最大旅游客源国的第六位跃升至第五位。印度游客人数也增长了17%。

亚洲股市在黄金周前推动周内走高，曼谷洪灾令旅游业前景蒙上阴影

其他地区的入境人数则呈现截然相反的趋势。马来西亚入境人数较前一周下降13%，日本入境人数也下降了18.5%。尽管如此，邻近亚洲市场的增长仍推动了整体周入境人数的改善。中国国庆节假期前的出行热潮也显著促进了这一增长。

韩国的中秋节假期也提振了区域旅游。相关客流量较前一周增长了32.73%。相比之下，一些长途航线市场则出现放缓。韩国商务部将这一下滑归因于旅客将行程推迟到10月旅游旺季。

因此，官员们预计未来一周病例数还会继续增加。中国即将进入国庆假期。与此同时，韩国庆祝建国纪念日。香港也放假过国庆节。在此背景下，曼谷的严重洪灾突然使情况变得更加复杂。

泰国旅游局局长塔帕尼·吉亚派布尔对中国市场表示特别关注。此次洪灾已引起国际社会的广泛关注。图片显示，曼谷道路被淹，车辆被困，交通严重中断。更重要的是，这些图片在黄金周前夕迅速在中国社交媒体上传播开来。

问题并不会导致泰国全国旅游基础设施瘫痪。素万那普机场和廊曼机场均正常运营。此外，泰国领空也未关闭。国际航班也未出现大范围取消的情况。

洪水扰乱机场行程，素万那普机场行李延误加剧黄金周前的紧张局势。

另一方面，泰国其他主要旅游目的地仍然开放。普吉岛并未直接受到曼谷洪灾的影响，甲米、苏梅岛、清迈和清莱也同样如此。然而，途经曼谷的交通已变得异常困难。

首都道路被洪水淹没，导致出行受阻。同时，严重的交通拥堵也延长了酒店与机场之间的行程时间。部分公共交通服务也受到影响。因此，泰国旅游局建议部分旅客预留两到三个小时的额外时间前往机场。酒店也已调整接送路线，并增派车辆接送客人。

雪上加霜的是，洪水恰逢素万那普机场行李严重延误。机场本身并未关闭，航班也照常进行。然而，被洪水淹没的道路阻碍了地勤人员的补位，导致人员短缺加剧，行李处理环节也因此承受了巨大压力。

乘客反映行李等待时间长达六小时。还有一些乘客甚至在没有托运行李的情况下离开了泰国。其中一次，一架载有亚运会运动员的泰国航空公司航班晚点近八小时。泰国航空公司调集了办公室和管理人员参与地面运营。之后，军方人员也被派往现场协助清理滞留行李。

洪水图片在中国社交媒体上广泛传播，自由行旅行者正在权衡是否改变泰国之旅。

因此，泰国同时面临着两个显而易见的旅游业难题。曼谷正遭受严重的洪灾和交通中断的困扰。其主要国际门户素万那普机场则面临着严重的行李积压问题。这两个问题都恰好在中国一年中最繁忙的旅游旺季前夕出现。

不过，塔帕妮女士强调，目前的情况与泰国2011年那场灾难性的洪灾有着显著的不同。当时的洪灾影响了更大范围的经济和交通基础设施，而此次洪灾的影响范围则更为集中。尽管如此，旅游官员们仍在密切关注海外游客对当前形势的看法。

这个问题在中国尤为重要。泰国旅游局成都办事处将眼前的挑战描述为一场认知危机。中国社交媒体用户已经看到了大量曼谷道路被洪水淹没的图片。相关报道通过微信和微博迅速传播。同样，小红书、抖音、今日头条和百度新闻也刊登了与洪灾相关的新闻。

因此，潜在的中国游客在最终决定出行前就能看到洪水图片。这一点至关重要，因为现在很多中国游客都选择自由行，他们不必非得参加大型旅行团。因此，他们可以相对快速地更换酒店、目的地和行程。

尽管曼谷洪灾造成一定影响，泰国旅游局仍预计吸引25万中国游客，消费额达115亿泰铢。

部分游客可能会选择避开曼谷，继续他们的泰国之旅。普吉岛、甲米、清迈和苏梅岛仍然是可行的替代选择。此外，游客也可以推迟行程或选择其他目的地。因此，随着黄金周的到来，泰国旅游局正密切关注临近出发日期的预订情况。

洪水发生前，人们对中国假期旅游的预期很高。泰国旅游局预计，在9月25日至10月7日的长假期间，将有约25万中国游客到访。该预测涵盖了中秋节和黄金周旅游旺季。

预计入境游客人数将同比增长24%。此外，泰国旅游局预计中国游客将带来约115亿泰铢的旅游收入，这将使旅游消费增长37%。此前的各项指标也表明，假期期间游客数量将大幅增长。

据报道，10月份来自中国的航班预订量增长了16%。与此同时，前往泰国的航班搜索量也增长了24%。来自上海、广州、成都、杭州和重庆的需求尤为强劲。因此，泰国旅游局正在为中国游客的大幅增长做好准备。

泰国旅游局加强与中国的沟通，官员们密切关注洪水、交通和黄金周预订情况。

作为这项推广计划的一部分，该机构曾大力宣传在联合假期期间延长游客停留时间。这项活动是其“你好月2026”计划的一部分，旨在加强泰国在中国这一关键旅游市场的复苏。然而，就在主要假期开始前几天，曼谷遭遇了洪水。

塔帕尼女士表示，目前掌握的信息并未显示出现大范围的取消预订。泰国旅游局也未发现中国市场受到严重全国性影响的证据。该机构仍然预计10月1日至7日中国国庆假期期间将有大量游客入境。然而，最终结果可能很大程度上取决于未来几天的形势。

泰国旅游局认为未来两到三天尤为重要。官员们正密切关注曼谷洪水消退的速度，以及交通状况是否恢复正常。与此同时，该机构也在关注潜在中国游客获取的信息。

为此，泰国旅游局已指示其在中国各地的办事处加强沟通。官员们正在向外界介绍曼谷和泰国其他未受影响地区的状况，并强调泰国的主要机场仍在正常运营。此外，该机构还重点介绍了仍然开放的主要旅游景点。

由于泰国年度外国游客入境人数进一步低于去年，中国游客仍然对泰国至关重要。

泰国旅游局成都办事处已对几种可能的情况进行了研究。其核心评估假设曼谷的洪水能够迅速消退。在这种情况下，对中国游客入境的影响将保持在可控范围内。该办事处估计，中国西部市场的游客数量可能比此前的预期减少5%至10%。

新一轮强降雨可能会使情况雪上加霜。持续的洪水也可能导致更大的下滑。重要的是，这仅仅是对未来旅游损失的预测，而非实际记录的损失。目前还没有证据表明会出现大规模的取消预订潮。

尽管如此，洪水依然肆虐，而泰国整体旅游业的复苏进程本已落后于去年。2026年前八个月，泰国共接待外国游客20,935,135人次，同比下降3.08%。截至9月26日，降幅已扩大至3.65%。

因此，最新一周的增长并未抹去此前的累计下滑。事实上，中国是今年泰国旅游业表现最强劲的客源市场之一。今年前八个月，中国游客到访泰国的人数同比增长约16%。然而，其他重要客源市场则大幅下滑。

今年1月至8月，马来西亚游客入境泰国人数下降11.87%，韩国游客入境人数下降24.78%，英国游客入境人数下降3.44%。综合来看，这些降幅凸显了中国游客在泰国旅游业最后一个季度持续增长的重要性。

泰国旅游局下调了预期，将游客接待目标定为 3300 万人次，因此泰国需要一个强劲的旅游旺季。

泰国目前正值旅游旺季，亟需大幅提升外国游客数量。泰国旅游局（TAT）目前的基本预测是，2026年游客数量约为3260万至3270万人次。此外，该机构仍在努力实现约3300万人次的目标。

泰国旅游局的目标是实现约2.7万亿泰铢的旅游总收入。其中，国际旅游预计贡献约1.6万亿泰铢，国内旅游预计贡献约1.1万亿泰铢。但这些目标在年内已被大幅下调。

泰国旅游局最初预计2026年外国游客数量将达到3670万人次，旅游总收入目标约为3万亿泰铢。然而，截至6月份，该机构已将目标调整为约3300万国际游客。

最新数据显示，第四季度所需加速增长的规模巨大。截至9月26日，泰国已接待约2267万外国游客。因此，还需要1033万游客才能达到3300万的目标。

泰国需要每日新增10.8万游客才能达到3300万的入境游客目标，而今年3000万的目标仍然有望实现。

这意味着在剩余的96天里，每天需要大约10.8万名外国游客入境。相比之下，截至9月26日，泰国平均每天接待约8.4万名游客。10月至12月是泰国的旅游旺季。即便如此，计算结果也表明，年度目标在很大程度上依赖于这一季节性高峰。

即使是泰国旅游局 (TAT) 预测的较低的 3260 万游客量，也需要额外 993 万游客。这意味着在剩余的旅游旺季期间，每天需要新增超过 10.3 万名游客。实际上，最后一个季度的游客量必须大幅高于年初至今的日均游客量。

与此同时，若要实现每年3000万游客的目标，则需要额外吸引733万外国游客。这意味着截至12月31日，每天大约需要7.6万名外国游客入境。按照目前的数据，3000万的目标仍然触手可及。然而，这样的结果将使泰国2024年的旅游业复苏计划出现重大倒退。

泰国预计2024年将接待3554.6万外国游客。如果实际游客数量为3000万，则意味着游客数量将减少约555万，比2024年的水平下降约15.6%。

除此之外，3000万的游客数量仍远低于泰国疫情前的旅游高峰。2019年，泰国接待了约3990万外国游客。因此，3000万的游客数量将比这一纪录低约24.8%。

中国经济强劲复苏，黄金周至关重要，但曼谷洪灾威胁旅游业发展势头。

相比之下，3000万的客流量也低于TAT目前的基本预测。官方预期仍约为3260万至3300万。然而，即使是较低的预期也需要第四季度业绩异常强劲。

中国的黄金周假期被寄予厚望，有望为旅游业带来重要的早期推动作用。事实上，最新的周度数据显示，旅游业的加速增长已经开始。中国游客入境人数在一周内激增42.62%。与此同时，中国游客的机票预订量也增长了16%。

航班搜索量再次增长了24%。因此，泰国旅游局（TAT）预计在长假期间将迎来约25万中国游客，这些游客预计将消费约115亿泰铢。然而，曼谷的洪灾给这些预测带来了新的不确定性。

雪上加霜的是，洪水恰逢泰国主要国际机场的行李延误问题。为此，泰国旅游局已采取措施，以消除中国国内的负面印象。中文版情况报告正在中国市场分发。

与此同时，社交媒体上的内容显示，未受影响的目的地运营正常。泰国旅游局也鼓励已在泰国的中国网红和媒体代表分享当地情况。为此，泰国旅游局正在使用微信、微博、小红书和抖音等社交媒体平台。

由于旅游目标下调，泰国旅游业需要旺季客流量大幅增长，因此进入最后一个季度的销售额落后于去年同期。

目前最令人担忧的问题仍然是中国游客的信心。泰国机场仍在运营，大多数主要旅游目的地也保持开放。即便如此，曼谷的洪水和交通中断在国际上仍然非常引人注目。

素万那普机场的行李问题加剧了这一关键时期的混乱。更重要的是，此事发生的时间恰逢泰国为加快中国游客入境旅游旺季而采取的措施。

因此，最新的旅游数据显示了两种截然不同的趋势。每周外国游客入境人数增长了4%。更重要的是，中国游客入境人数激增了42.62%。然而，累计外国游客入境人数仍比去年同期下降了3.65%。

泰国也即将进入2026年的最后三个月。因此，该国最重要的旅游季度即将开始，但旅游业仍有很大一段路要走。

泰国旅游局最初预测的3670万游客量已从目前的预测中剔除。其目前的预期约为3260万至3300万。要达到3300万的目标，需要在12月31日之前再增加1033万游客量。

要达到3260万游客的目标，还需要近1000万游客。由此看来，中国的黄金周在第四季度的游客数量中所占比例就显得更为重要。

泰国黄金周成为洪灾影响的首个重大考验，预计游客人数将超过1000万。

洪水发生前，泰国旅游局预计假期期间中国游客数量将大幅增长。最新的中国游客周度数据也印证了这一预期。然而，随着假期的开始，曼谷的洪灾却给泰国旅游局带来了意想不到的考验。

截至目前，泰国旅游局尚未发现大规模的取消预订潮。尽管如此，官员们仍在密切关注尚未完成预订的旅客，以及那些能够迅速更改行程的自由行游客。

接下来的几天应该能更清晰地展现洪水对旅游业的影响。与此同时，这也标志着泰国旅游业最后一个关键季度的开始。

截至9月26日，泰国官方统计的外国游客总数为2267万人次，比去年同期下降3.65%。泰国还需要新增1000多万外国游客才能达到3300万人次的目标。

即使要达到泰国旅游局设定的3260万游客基准目标，也需要额外增加近1000万游客。因此，10月至12月的旅游旺季必须在全年游客总数中所占比例越来越大。

中国仍然是泰国旅游旺季的核心，黄金周在曼谷洪灾的影响下拉开帷幕。

中国市场在第四季度业绩中仍然占据核心地位。截至9月26日，中国游客数量达到382万人次。随后，中国游客数量在最近一周激增超过42%。

然而，黄金周却在曼谷道路被洪水淹没、交通严重中断的画面中拉开帷幕。与此同时，素万那普机场也面临着行李处理方面的问题。

泰国旅游局此前预计，在长假期间将有25万中国游客入境，消费总额达115亿泰铢。这些预期尚未正式取消。目前，该机构正在密切关注预订情况和游客情绪。

随着黄金周的到来，泰国旅游业的最终影响将会更加明朗。在此之前，年度旅游数据依然面临挑战。泰国目前的旅游业发展仍落后于去年，而其原定的2026年旅游预期也已被下调。

中国经济原本被寄予厚望，有望引领第四季度增速加快。如今，即将到来的黄金周数据将首次揭示这一增长势头能否延续。

越南正大量吸引泰国的优质游客，而曼谷却在打击非法游客的行动中束手无策。

旅游部长指示处理因工作人员未按时上班而导致的机场行李严重短缺危机。

行李混乱导致疲惫不堪的工作人员不堪重负，泰国皇家陆军已部署至素万那普机场。

曼谷机场已开放并有航班运行，但素万那普机场出现延误和行李问题。

曼谷附近北榄府发生洪灾悲剧，一辆汽车被淹，两人触电身亡。

周日曼谷地铁蓝线发生火灾，损失比预想的要严重，工程师们连夜抢修。

泰国国家铁路公司对与上周六曼谷火车事故有关的私人司机提起诉讼。

警方将对58个铁路道口进行审查，此前一起火车与巴士相撞事故造成8人死亡。火车司机曾有吸毒史。

曼谷火车与巴士相撞事故，警方调查重点转向火车司机，目前仍在搜寻遇难者遗体。

曼谷市中心发生火车相撞事故，造成8人死亡。火车撞上一辆堵在路上的公交车。路口护栏未能放下。

在造成32人死亡的高铁事故后，总理呼吁将高铁线路承包商列入黑名单。

周四，一名意大利籍泰国籍老板和其他16人因涉嫌在审计长大楼内造成人员死亡而被捕。

因与乍都乍周末市场大楼倒塌事件有关的被捕男子现在告诉警方，他是中国国家雇员。

约瑟夫·安东尼是一位来自爱尔兰的侨民，过去十年一直居住在泰国。他曾在爱尔兰和泰国的媒体行业担任过编辑职务，拥有丰富的媒体从业经验。他主要关注泰国的经济和商业新闻，以及侨民的生活方式。

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2026年9月24日，塔玛纳·普罗姆波领导的克拉塔姆党准备组建政府，总理阿努廷严阵以待。塔玛纳·普罗姆波领导的拥有58名议员的克拉塔姆党正朝着这一目标迈进。

2026年9月24日，一名加拿大男子在清迈被捕，他涉嫌强奸一名英国游客，当时距离他离开泰国仅几个小时。警方突袭了38岁的加拿大男子阿尔多·奥乔亚·萨恩斯（Aldo Ochoa Saenz）的住所。

泰国石油基金每周亏损近50亿泰铢，政府疲于应对中东危机 2026年9月23日 泰国石油基金每日亏损7亿泰铢

泰国内政部对以色列在泰国的哈巴德运动网络展开调查，此前有报道称该网络在泰国南部购买土地（2026年9月23日）。泰国内政部扩大了对与以色列有关联的土地的调查范围。

2026年9月22日，马来西亚国王玛哈·哇集拉隆功的第三子查克里瓦特博士健康状况恶化，引发各方关注。

地方政府考试丑闻逼近关键时刻。Rangsiman Rome呼吁首相给出解释（2026年9月22日）。Anutin因45亿泰铢的地方考试丑闻面临越来越大的压力。

泰国空姐米娜因涉嫌贩毒在墨尔本被捕，隧道尽头出现曙光 2026年9月22日 米娜·近藤的澳大利亚毒品案出现希望

阿努廷前往纽约，但美泰贸易协议仍未传出任何消息，国内问题持续发酵。2026年9月21日，华盛顿为泰国的贸易协议附加了新的条件。

越南正大量吸引泰国的优质游客，而曼谷却在打击非法游客方面举步维艰 2026年9月21日 越南旅游业的蓬勃发展正在缩小与泰国的差距

2026年9月21日星期六上午，芭堤雅一处公寓发生骚乱和枪击事件，一名在职警官因此接受调查。枪声响彻芭堤雅南部一处公寓。

2026年9月20日，曼谷地铁蓝线周日发生火灾，损失比预想的更为严重，工程师们连夜抢修。为挽救曼谷地铁周一的通勤，各方争分夺秒。

泰国皇家海军宣布与韩国达成一项雄心勃勃的协议，将在泰国本土部分建造下一代护卫舰。2026年9月20日，泰国向韩国寻求价值167.3亿泰铢的援助。

2026年9月26日，在帕岸岛谋杀并肢解哥伦比亚外科医生的32岁西班牙厨师上诉被驳回。

2026年9月25日星期五上午，芭堤雅一处民宅发生大麻种植场火灾，房屋被烧毁，当地居民出现头晕、头痛等症状。

2026年9月25日，一名33岁男子因母亲拒绝给他买一辆动力更强的车，在乌隆他尼纵火焚烧了自己的本田史酷比汽车。

部长们被指责忽视泰国农民。关键援助资金尚未提交内阁审议（2026年9月25日）

2026年9月24日，总理阿努廷·查恩维拉库尔因地方政府考试丑闻被议会正式传唤。

前司法部长称赞一项重大破产法案，该法案有望减轻家庭债务负担 2026年9月24日

妮妮·罗亚尔凭借精彩绝伦的《七国军队》压轴表演为泰国赢得大奖，斩获100万美元奖金（2026年9月24日）。

芭堤雅突袭行动后，几名中国男子因涉嫌强奸和敲诈勒索被捕。一名女子于2026年9月23日被关押并戴上镣铐。

数字部长（36岁）兼强大的奇德乔布王朝继承人拥有数亿美元的财富 2026年9月23日

泰国内阁周二通过最新大麻法案，旨在遏制该国失控的大麻产业（2026年9月23日）

法律界重量级人物计划举办研讨会，审查选举委员会让高层政客免于追究责任的举措（2026年9月22日）

文化部长在新闻发布会上驳斥柬埔寨环球小姐选美大赛使用120年前泰国女性照片的做法 2026年9月22日

2026年9月22日，一名35岁泰国女子在台湾遇害，其家人要求归还骨灰并索要经济赔偿。

2026年9月21日，伦敦警察厅根据线报捣毁了以泰国女子“冰雪女王弗蕾雅”为名的性交易团伙。

蜘蛛侠“和平”抗议及逮捕事件：苏梅岛动物园争议最新进展（2026年9月21日）

2026年9月20日星期日，南部省份亚拉发生骚乱，一名助理村长在当晚的袭击中丧生。

普吉岛毒品检查站丑闻。为打击毒品犯罪而设立的国防军小组被指控敲诈勒索。2026年9月20日

他信时代部长回顾泰国2006年政变，呼吁建立以人民为中心的民主制度。2026年9月20日

2026年9月19日，45岁的澳大利亚男子西蒙·彼得·卡曼在芭堤雅被控谋杀，但他拒不不认罪，保释申请被拒绝。

随着债务上限临近，公共债务较新冠疫情前水平大幅飙升，政府是时候勒紧裤腰带了。（2026年9月18日）

泰国准备对境外生产的电动汽车征收30%的税，以促进其汽车产业发展（2026年9月18日）

2026年9月17日，芭堤雅一名好心人因帮女友找回丢失的摩托车钥匙，被一名行为怪异的外国人殴打。

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