Ukraine needs changes to avoid losing war, ousted defense minister says

Ukraine appears to be slowly losing the war against Russia, ousted Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told Reuters, warning that Kyiv has a window of several months to make key decisions needed to turn the tide in its favor.

Fedorov, a young reformer whose dismissal last month sparked weeks of protests, said Ukraine lacked any overall vision for how to win the four-year-old conflict and was hobbled by its failure to innovate.

Ingrained corruption and patronage networks, as well as a lack of political independence in government institutions, were also holding the country back, he said in an interview.

“I think that there’s now a turning point which will determine our future trajectory, but it looks as though we’re gradually, slowly losing,” Fedorov said in a marked departure from Kyiv’s official rhetoric.

Ukraine still had “every chance” to win but urgently needed a plan to end the war, he added.

Ukraine’s presidential office said in response to Fedorov’s comments that he had been positive about the conduct of the war when he was at the ministry and the only thing that had changed was his personal status.

Lack of interceptors hinders Ukraine

Russia is hammering Ukrainian factories and warehouses with dozens of ballistic missiles a month, which Ukraine is mostly unable to take down as interceptors run low. Although Russia is gaining less ground than last year, it is still slowly crawling forward in the Donbas, while Ukraine’s sparse frontline infantry dugouts are manned mostly by unmotivated conscripts.

Ukraine, in turn, has ramped up its own drone and missile attacks deep into Russia, hitting some key military factories, causing serious damage to oil refineries and creating nationwide fuel shortages.

A poll conducted at the end of July found 82% of Ukrainians believed Ukraine would win, although most expected fighting to carry on into 2027 or later.

Fedorov, 35, was fired six months after his appointment, having initiated reforms around procurement and mobilization that put him on a collision course with the military establishment and political rivals.

Last week, he rocked Ukrainian politics by becoming the first major political figure to demand wartime elections, decrying a “systemic” crisis of governance.

In an interview on Monday, he emphasized the importance of developing autonomous drones guided by artificial intelligence, cheap interceptor missiles to stop Russia’s air attacks and Ukraine’s own ballistic missile program to turn the tide of the war.

Ukrainian manufacturers are already working on those technologies, but Fedorov said the country needed a joined-up strategy to maximize their effect once deployed.

He laid out a vision for a frontline covered by electronic sensors to detect enemies, with drones on land and in the air to minimize human presence.

“Technologies exist already which could completely stop the Russians, but our absence of vision ... means we do not apply them,” he said.

Fedorov criticized the wasted potential and inefficiency of the Ukrainian state, which he said was operating at “5% effectiveness.”

Budget deficit blame game

Fedorov says he was a driving force behind a drone campaign this year targeting Russia’s fuel and military logistics in the occupied part of southern Ukraine, causing problems for Moscow’s forces on the frontline.

He said there was still a window of opportunity of a few months to press ahead with that operation, seeking to isolate Russian-occupied Crimea, before Russia works out how to respond to Ukraine’s tactics.

This strike campaign was a significant factor in shifting narratives about Ukraine’s prospects.

Fedorov previously said the campaign’s success was aided by his decision to front-load spending, which had been earmarked for the second half of 2026.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy — Fedorov’s former political patron turned rival — said at the weekend that bringing spending forward had left a $27 billion hole in the ministry’s budget, for which donor-dependent Ukraine does not have a solution.

Fedorov said he had no idea where Zelenskiy got this figure, arguing his ministry devised a spending plan that relied on savings from new procurement tenders and international support.

Fedorov alleged that when he arrived at the defense ministry, he found department heads appointed at the behest of Ukrainian defense companies to lobby for their interests.

“By the end of the year, the budget deficit under our planning was around five billion dollars, and we knew where we would get it,” he said. “Perhaps the plan changed and new projects emerged that require such a budget.”

Fedorov’s call for elections was met with dismay from many Ukrainians and polls have consistently shown low enthusiasm for wartime elections.

Zelenskiy condemned Fedorov’s election call, arguing it could destroy Ukraine as it fights off Russia.

Ukraine has, since Russia’s February 2022 invasion, been under martial law which bans elections for security reasons.

The president said Fedorov may be being pushed by outside forces to call for elections. Fedorov staunchly denied this.

While there are enormous logistical challenges to holding wartime elections, Fedorov said that Ukraine would find innovative solutions. However, he said it was too early to say if he would run for the presidency.

In the meantime, Fedorov plans to split his time between his push to restore Ukraine’s elections and ventures focused on innovative military technologies, including an investment fund for which he plans to raise capital during an upcoming trip to the U.S.

乌克兰被罢免的国防部长米哈伊洛·费多罗夫告诉路透社，乌克兰似乎正在慢慢输掉与俄罗斯的战争，并警告说，基辅还有几个月的时间来做出扭转战局的关键决定。

费多罗夫是一位年轻的改革派人士，他上个月被解职引发了持续数周的抗议活动。他表示，乌克兰缺乏赢得这场持续四年的冲突的任何总体愿景，并且由于缺乏创新而举步维艰。

他在一次采访中表示，根深蒂固的腐败和裙带关系网络，以及政府机构缺乏政治独立性，也阻碍了国家的发展。

费多罗夫表示：“我认为现在正处于一个决定我们未来走向的转折点，但看起来我们正在逐渐、慢慢地失败。”这与基辅官方的言论截然不同。

他补充说，乌克兰仍然“很有可能”赢得战争，但迫切需要制定结束战争的计划。

乌克兰总统办公室回应费多罗夫的言论时表示，费多罗夫在担任国防部长时就对战争行为持积极态度，唯一改变的是他的个人身份。

拦截器不足阻碍了乌克兰的发展。

俄罗斯每月向乌克兰的工厂和仓库发射数十枚弹道导弹，由于拦截导弹数量有限，乌克兰几乎无力拦截。尽管俄罗斯在顿巴斯地区的推进速度较去年有所放缓，但仍在缓慢推进，而乌克兰前线步兵阵地稀疏，且大多由缺乏斗志的义务兵驻守。

乌克兰随即加大了对俄罗斯境内无人机和导弹的攻击力度，袭击了一些重要的军事工厂，对炼油厂造成了严重破坏，并导致全国范围内的燃料短缺。

7 月底进行的一项民意调查发现，82% 的乌克兰人认为乌克兰会取得胜利，尽管大多数人预计战斗会持续到 2027 年或更晚。

35岁的费多罗夫在上任六个月后被解职，他推行的采购和动员改革使他与军方高层和政治对手产生了冲突。

上周，他成为第一个要求在战时举行选举的主要政治人物，震惊了乌克兰政坛，并谴责存在“系统性”治理危机。

周一，他在接受采访时强调了发展人工智能引导的自主无人机、廉价拦截导弹以阻止俄罗斯空袭以及乌克兰自身弹道导弹计划对于扭转战争局势的重要性。

乌克兰制造商已经在研发这些技术，但费多罗夫表示，该国需要制定一项统筹战略，才能最大限度地发挥这些技术部署后的效果。

他描绘了一幅前线部署电子传感器以探测敌人的蓝图，并利用陆地和空中的无人机最大限度地减少人员存在。

他说：“已经存在可以完全阻止俄罗斯的技术，但我们缺乏远见……意味着我们没有应用这些技术。”

费多罗夫批评​​了乌克兰国家浪费潜力、效率低下，称其运作效率仅为“5%”。

预算赤字责任推卸游戏

费多罗夫称，他是今年针对俄罗斯在乌克兰南部被占领地区的燃料和军事后勤的无人机行动的幕后推手，给莫斯科在前线的部队造成了麻烦。

他表示，在俄罗斯想出如何应对乌克兰的策略之前，还有几个月的窗口期可以推进这项行动，力图孤立俄罗斯占领的克里米亚。

这次打击行动是改变人们对乌克兰前景看法的重要因素。

费多罗夫此前曾表示，竞选活动的成功得益于他决定提前支出，这些支出原本是为 2026 年下半年预留的。

费多罗夫的前政治靠山、如今的竞争对手、总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基周末表示，提前支出导致该部预算出现 270 亿美元的缺口，而依赖捐助国的乌克兰对此束手无策。

费多罗夫表示，他不知道泽连斯基是从哪里得到这个数字的，并辩称他的部门制定了一项支出计划，依靠新的采购招标和国际支持节省下来的资金。

费多罗夫声称，当他到达国防部时，发现各部门负责人都是应乌克兰国防公司的要求任命的，目的是游说这些公司维护其利益。

他说：“按照我们的计划，到年底预算赤字约为50亿美元，而且我们知道这笔钱从哪里来。也许计划有所改变，出现了一些需要如此大预算的新项目。”

费多罗夫呼吁举行选举，这令许多乌克兰人感到失望，民意调查也一直显示民众对战时选举的热情不高。

泽连斯基谴责费多罗夫呼吁举行选举，认为这可能会在乌克兰与俄罗斯对抗之际摧毁乌克兰。

自俄罗斯 2022 年 2 月入侵以来，乌克兰一直处于戒严状态，出于安全原因禁止举行选举。

总统表示，费多罗夫可能受到外部势力的压力，才要求举行选举。费多罗夫对此予以坚决否认。

费多罗夫表示，尽管战时举行选举面临巨大的后勤挑战，乌克兰会找到创新性的解决方案。但他同时表示，现在谈论他是否会竞选总统还为时过早。

与此同时，费多罗夫计划将时间分配在推动恢复乌克兰选举和专注于创新军事技术的项目上，其中包括一项投资基金，他计划在即将到来的美国之行中为该基金筹集资金。