Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2026俄罗斯攻势评估,2026年9月28日
Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps publicized details on the third phase of Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction.

Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps publicized details on the third phase of Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction, which included successfully feinting and deceiving Russian forces and the liberation of Nove, Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Karpivka, and Novomykhailivka (all north of Lyman). Ukrainian 3rd Army Corps Commander Brigadier General Andrii Biletskyi reported on September 28 that Ukrainian forces liberated 51 square kilometers of land in the third phase, for a total of 176 square kilometers over Operation Vivaldi’s three announced phases.[1] Biletskyi stated that Ukrainian forces feinted from Shandryholove (northwest of Lyman) toward Zelena Dolyna (northeast of Shandryholove), distracting from Ukraine’s main tactical objective of Nove on the northern flank of the Russian forces in the area. Biletsky noted that Ukrainian forces used BTR-80 armored personnel carriers (APCs) converted into vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) to break through Russian defenses and destroy Russian heavy fortifications. It is notable that Ukrainian forces were able to field and drive APCs up to heavy Russian fortifications without coming under Russian drone strikes, indicating that Ukrainian forces neutralized or otherwise negated Russian drone defenses. Ukrainian forces conducted extensive shaping operations and an intermediate-range strike campaign to mitigate the threat from Russian drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems and achieve tactical drone overmatch, aiding Ukrainian mechanized advances in the Lyman direction.[2]
Operation Vivaldi is fueling Russian ultranationalist milblogger discourse about how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is harming Russian forces and facilitating Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction. Prominent ultranationalist milblogger Dva Mayora claimed on September 28, following Ukrainian reporting about Operation Vivaldi, that Russian information policy about frontline operations obscures difficult battlefield conditions and underrepresents Ukrainian capabilities, which creates problems when Ukrainian successes become publicly visible, such as with Operation Vivaldi.[3] The milblogger claimed that Russian officials will struggle to explain the situation to the public as the Russian media constantly fills the information space with triumphant rhetoric that portrays Ukrainian defensive lines on the verge of collapse. Another ultranationalist milblogger, Starshe Edy, claimed that inaccurate reporting about Ukrainian gains in the Lyman direction has impeded the Russian military command’s operational planning and reinforcement decisions.[4] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces capitalized on the fact that Russian personnel would not report Ukrainian gains to their higher chain of command. Russian milbloggers have been increasingly critical of the culture of “beautiful reports,” in which exaggerated claims of Russian advances from battlefield commanders to the higher command impede operational planning, thus enabling Ukrainian advances.[5] Inaccurate reporting within the Russian chain of command about the current state of the frontline consistently degrades Russian battlefield awareness and Russian commanders’ ability to disrupt advancing Ukrainian infantry and equipment.
The Kremlin is restricting publicly available information regarding Russia’s oil and gas industry, likely in an effort to conceal and protect Russian oil supplies for a variety of reasons, including from Ukrainian strikes, Western sanctions, or domestic Russian discontent and panic stemming from fuel shortages. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 28 restricting access to information regarding the Russian oil and gas industry, including market datasets; oil refining and production volumes; buyers, sellers, and intermediaries; transportation and transshipment information; dates and times of transactions; and the geographic coordinates of oil terminals and storage facilities.[6] This information restriction could aim to achieve one or more objectives. The Kremlin is likely attempting to improve the operational security of its oil and gas industry amid Ukraine’s effective long-range strike campaign against Russian oil refining infrastructure.[7] A more restrictive information environment may also help mitigate the effects of existing Western sanctions against the Russian oil industry and defend against new ones by obfuscating the extent to which Russia is relying on energy imports that could be targeted via secondary sanctions. The Kremlin may also seek to obfuscate the scale and prevalence of Russia’s continued domestic fuel crisis from ordinary Russians, as this crisis has caused widespread societal discontent in Russia and fueled panic-buying, further exacerbating fuel supply shortages.[8] An industry source told Kremlin newswire TASS, which reported on September 28 that Russian authorities are preparing to extend the ban on diesel fuel exports for another month, until the end of October 2026, after initially imposing the ban in July 2026.[9]
Russian forces conducted a drone strike mere kilometers from the Ukrainian-Polish border near the Yahodyn border crossing for the second time in September 2026. Poland announced its intent to change its air defense rules of engagement following the strike. A Russian Geran-5 jet-powered strike drone struck a truck parking lot near the Yahodyn international border checkpoint in Volyn Oblast, less than one-and-a-half kilometers from the Ukrainian-Polish border, during the day on September 28.[10] Geolocated footage shows the drone diving and an explosion after hitting an unknown object.[11] Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed that Polish air defense systems had been put on alert and aircraft scrambled in response to the strike but that no aerial targets violated Polish airspace.[12] Russian strikes against Ukrainian border infrastructure along the Ukrainian-Polish border, including the Yahodyn-Dorohusk border crossing, have repeatedly forced Polish authorities to scramble air defense assets and reconsider the Polish and NATO air defense posture.[13] Polish Deputy Defense Minister Cezary Tomczyk stated on September 28 that Poland will change its rules of engagement ”in the coming days” so that Polish fighter jets and helicopters only need a “positive identification” using radar and not a “visual identification” via both radar and pilot eyes on a target before engaging an object violating Polish airspace.[14] The change will enable Polish pilots to decide to shoot down an unidentified flying object using radar information about flight trajectory, speed, the location of the airspace violation, and communication response, enabling a more rapid response. Tomczyk stated that this change will enable Polish pilots to respond more quickly to drones and missiles flying toward Poland from “the direction of Russia.”[15] It is notable that Polish authorities have taken this step as NATO states attempt to find an adequate response to Russian drones nearing or entering their airspace from Ukraine, often leaving NATO air defense insufficient time to identify and target such threats before they have entered allied airspace.[16]
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 28 transferring the assets of German wholesale retailer Metro AG in Russia to “temporary” management under Russian company UK Torg Rus LLC.[17] The Kremlin continues to nationalize both Russian and foreign assets, including those of prominent foreign enterprises, as ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely setting conditions for a broader nationalization of Russian private assets to support state revenues amid rising war costs.[18] The Kremlin may also seek ways to pressure European countries into adopting policy stances more favorable to Russia through coercion measures against European companies operating in Russia.
Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who previously commanded the Central and Northern groupings of forces in Ukraine, became the deputy prime minister of the Republic of Tatarstan on September 28.[19] Republic of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov announced that the Republic of Tatarstan government is creating a new structure to support active-duty soldiers fighting in Ukraine and that Lapin will lead this structure as deputy prime minister. Lapin reportedly served as Minnikhanov’s advisor after his dismissal from military service in September 2025.[20] Russian state newspaper RBK reported that Lapin placed second in the primary election of the ruling United Russia Party in Tatarstan but that the 25 percent vote bump from his veteran status put him in first place and made him eligible for a Russian State Duma seat.[21]
Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps publicized details on the third phase of Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction, which included successfully feinting and deceiving Russian forces and the liberation of Nove, Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Karpivka, and Novomykhailivka (all north of Lyman).
Operation Vivaldi is fueling Russian ultranationalist milblogger discourse about how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is harming Russian forces and facilitating Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction.
The Kremlin is restricting publicly available information regarding Russia’s oil and gas industry, likely in an effort to conceal and protect Russian oil supplies for a variety of reasons, including from Ukrainian strikes, Western sanctions, or domestic Russian discontent and panic stemming from fuel shortages.
Russian forces conducted a drone strike mere kilometers from the Ukrainian-Polish border near the Yahodyn border crossing for the second time in September 2026. Poland announced its intent to change its air defense rules of engagement following the strike.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 28 transferring the assets of German wholesale retailer Metro AG in Russia to “temporary” management under Russian company UK Torg Rus LLC.
Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who previously commanded the Central and Northern groupings of forces in Ukraine, became the deputy prime minister of the Republic of Tatarstan on September 28.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
Russia launched 289 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of September 27 to 28.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of September 27 to 28. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported on September 28 that Ukrainian forces struck and caused fires at the Edelweiss-95 and Ding-Yug-Oil oil depots in stanitsa Novotitarovskaya, Krasnodar Krai (roughly 350 kilometers from the frontline), the Lukoil-Yugnefteproduct oil depot in stanitsa Pavlovskaya, Krasnodar Krai (roughly 310 kilometers from the frontline), and the Angelinskaya oil depot in stanitsa Staronizhestebliyevskaya, Krasnodar Krai (roughly 305 kilometers from the frontline) on the night of September 27 to 28.[22] Geolocated footage published on September 27 and 28 shows explosions at the Edelweiss-95 oil depot and large smoke plumes rising from the Angelinska oil depot following Ukrainian strikes.[23] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 28 that Ukrainian forces also struck unspecified Russian defense plants in Tula and Voronezh oblasts and drone launchers in Kaluga and Oryol oblasts.[24]
Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis
Russian forces recently conducted an infiltration mission northwest of Sumy City. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position west of Kharkivka (northwest of Sumy City), according to geolocated footage published on September 27, after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission.[25] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on September 28 that Russian forces seized Ulanove (northwest of Sumy City).[26]
Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian military assets and railway infrastructure in Bryansk and Kaluga oblasts on the night of September 27 to 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 28 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Pantsir-S2 air defense system near Seltso, Bryansk Oblast (roughly 113 kilometers from the international border).[27] Bryansk Oblast Governor Yegor Kovalchuk claimed on September 28 that Ukrainian forces struck the Dyatkovo-Lyudinovo railway section (roughly 140 kilometers from the international border), destroying part of a bridge and derailing 10 railcars, and railway infrastructure in Unechskiy and Navlinskiy raions in Bryansk Oblast (both roughly 65 kilometers from the international border).[28] The Moscow Railway Press Service announced a temporary suspension of train service on Unecha-Zlynka and Dyatkovo-Lyudinovo railway sections following Ukrainian strikes against Bryansk and Kaluga oblasts.[29] A Russian milblogger claimed on September 28 that Ukrainian forces are actively probing an air corridor in Bryansk Oblast, seeking out Russian air defense and mobile fire groups, to facilitate Ukrainian drone flights toward Moscow City and St. Petersburg.[30]
Russian Supporting Effort: Kharkiv Oblast
Russian forces recently conducted infiltration missions in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian-occupied building in central Tokarivka (north of Kharkiv City), according to geolocated footage published on September 28, after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission.[31] Ukrainian forces also struck a Russian position along the E-105 Kharkiv City — Belgorod City highway east of Hoptivka (north of Kharkiv City), according to geolocated footage published on September 16, after what ISW assessed was a Russian infiltration mission.[32] A source reporting on the Russian Northern Grouping of forces claimed on September 28 that Ukrainian forces are actively operating in the Russian rear in Kozacha Lopan, Hoptivka (both north of Kharkiv City), and near Starytsia (northeast of Kharkiv City) in an effort to disrupt Russian logistics and reinforcement efforts in the area.[33]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on September 27 and 28 but did not make confirmed advances.[34] A Russian milblogger claimed on September 27 and 28 that Russian forces advanced east of Loshakove and Khyzhniakove (both north of Velykyi Burluk).[35]
Russian Supporting Effort: Oskil River
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on September 27 and 28 but did not advance, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked southeast of Kupyansk.[36]
Ukrainian forces are effectively intercepting a wide range of Russian drones in the Kupyansk direction, but Russian jet-powered drones and adverse weather conditions continue to strain Ukraine’s drone interception rates. A non-commissioned officer (NCO) of a Ukrainian drone interceptor battery operating in the Kupyansk direction reported on September 28 that Russian forces have been actively conducting offensive operations in the brigade’s area of responsibility (AoR) in recent weeks but stated that the situation remains stable.[37] The NCO stated that Ukrainian forces effectively intercept a wide range of Russian drones in the Kupyansk direction despite Russian efforts to change the flight paths of their drones. The commander stated that Russian forces’ use of jet-powered drones and adverse weather conditions, such as rain and fog, are complicating Ukraine’s drone interception rates but noted that Ukrainian manufacturers are actively working on introducing new technological solutions to address these issues.
Russian forces used Ukrainian civilians as human shields as they retreated into a gas pipeline north of Kupyansk in a direct violation of international humanitarian law. The Ukrainian 2nd Khartiya Corps reported on September 28 that Russian forces used civilians, including the elderly and children, to cover their retreat into a pipeline through Holubivka (north of Kupyansk) to occupied territory, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the area.[38] ISW continues to assess that Russia’s use of civilians as human shields is indicative of a pervasive culture within the Russian military that seeks to both weaponize and maximize civilian harm as a purposeful tool of war.[39]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on September 27 and 28 but did not advance.[40]
Russian Main Effort: Capture Ukraine’s Fortress Belt and complete the seizure of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Encircle the Fortress Belt from the northwest
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Lyman tactical area on September 27 and 28 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the area.[41] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to push Russian forces back across the Zherebets River.[42]
See topline text for reports on phase 3 of Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Advance on the Fortress Belt from the east
Russian forces continued offensive operations east of Slovyansk toward Mykolaivka on September 27 and 28 but did not advance, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the area.[43] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces have been actively advancing toward Rai-Oleksandrivka (southeast of Mykolaivka) but have not yet cleared the forest north of the settlement, from which Russian forces are attacking toward Mykolaivka.[44]
Russian milbloggers are acknowledging Ukrainian presence in the Chasiv Yar area. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on September 27 that Ukrainian forces continue to infiltrate into Chasiv Yar through Mykolaivka (just west of Chasiv Yar) and that Mykolaivka itself is a contested “gray zone.”[45] Ukrainian forces recently advanced in southwestern Chasiv Yar, and Russian forces likely do not maintain consolidated positions in Mykolaivka or Podilske (west of Mykolaivka).[46]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Advance on the Fortress Belt from the south
Ukrainian forces likely cleared Russian infiltrators from positions southwest of Druzhkivka. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked from Raiske toward Petrivka and Toretske (both southeast of Raiske), indicating that Ukrainian forces cleared Russian infiltrators from Raiske on a prior date.[47] Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Raiske, Toretske, and Novomykolaivka (west of Raiske) to prevent Russian forces from encircling Druzhkivka from the southwest.[48] The milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces also counterattacked from Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, near Kurtivka (north of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka), and west of Kostyantynivka.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #4 – Encircle the Fortress Belt from the southwest
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on September 27 and 28 but did not make confirmed advances.[49] The Russian MoD claimed on September 28 that elements of the Russian Central Grouping of Forces seized Novovodiane (roughly eight kilometers northwest of Dobropillya and roughly 10 kilometers from the closest assessed Russian advance in the area).[50] The Russian MoD’s claim is likely part of the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to exaggerate Russian battlefield successes and portray Ukrainian defenses as collapsing.[51] The Russian MoD recently falsely claimed that Russian forces had encircled Ukrainian forces in Dobropillya, contrary to all available evidence.[52]
Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 28 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian drone storage, preparation, and launch site in occupied Donetsk City (roughly 45 kilometers from the frontline); a Russian repair unit in occupied Mariupol (roughly 102 kilometers from the frontline); Russian ammunition depots in occupied Makiivka (roughly 47 kilometers from the frontline) and Ustynivka (likely referring to a settlement in Siverodonetsk Raion, Luhansk Oblast); and a Russian material and technical warehouse in occupied Nikolske (roughly 94 kilometers from the frontline) on September 27 or overnight September 27 to 28.[53]
Russian Supporting Effort: Advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Novopavlivka direction on September 28.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction on September 27 and 28 but did not advance, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.[54]
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Hulyaipole direction on September 28 and 29 but did not advance.[55]
Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Orikhiv. Russian forces struck a Ukrainian position south of Mala Tokmachka, according to geolocated footage published on September 27, indicating that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the area.[56]
Ukrainian forces continued their frontline strikes against Russian military assets in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 28 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian temporary deployment point and a ground control station in Vynohradivka (roughly 30 kilometers from the frontline).[57]
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Kherson direction on September 28.
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Note: The Ukrainian military ceased regularly reporting the numbers of Russian missiles fired and the number of missiles intercepted as of August 11.[58]
Russian forces conducted devastating drone strikes against Ukraine, heavily targeting Kyiv City, overnight on September 27 to 28 and during the day on September 28. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 165 Shahed-type strike drones (including 79 jet-powered ones), Gerbera-type strike drones, and Parodiya-type decoy drones from the directions of Oryol City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Shatalovo; Smolensk Oblast; occupied Donetsk City; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea, overnight.[59] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 112 drones, that air strike vehicles hit 14 locations, and that debris fell on seven locations. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched an additional 124 strike drones (of which 86 were jet-powered), including Gerbera-type drones and Banderol or Dan-T loitering munitions, from 0630 to 1830 local time on September 28, primarily targeting Kyiv Oblast.[60] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 86 of these drones (including 49 jet-powered ones) and that strike vehicles hit 29 locations. The Ukrainian Air Force noted that many Russian drones remain airborne as of 1830 local time. Russian forces will likely attempt to further prolong their strike waves against Ukrainian cities to degrade Ukrainian air defenses for subsequent strikes, as Russian forces have been doing in recent weeks.[61]
Russian strikes in the past 24 hours have reportedly injured at least 110 Ukrainian civilians. Russian forces struck the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences building, the Dobrobut Medical Center, warehouses, gas stations, and civilian and communications infrastructure in Kyiv City, killing at least one and injuring at least 24, including former Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Volodymyr Horbulin.[62] Russian forces also struck a residential building in Kharkiv City, injuring at least 38 and killing an unspecified number of civilians; struck a business center in Dnipro City, injuring at least 18; and struck residential and other infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia City, injuring at least 30.[63] Russian forces also hit a Palau-flagged ship in Odesa Oblast; residential buildings in Sumy, Rivne, and Odesa oblasts; and critical infrastructure in Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[64]
Russian forces are beginning to use jet-powered Shahed drone variants capable of transmitting live video feeds and evading Ukrainian jamming in strikes against Kyiv City. Russian sources released footage of a Russian drone strike against a business center in Kyiv City on September 25, demonstrating that at least some Russian Shahed-type drones can relay live video feeds back to their operators to support targeting and battle damage assessment.[65] Ukrainian Presidential Advisor on Defense Technologies Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported that a Russian Geran-5 jet-powered strike drone struck the Kyiv City business center while another Shahed-type drone flew about three kilometers overhead, serving as a mesh radio signal repeater for the striking Geran-5 drone.[66] Beskrestnov reported that the second Shahed then struck a food warehouse outside of Kyiv City and assessed that the Russian drone pilots were closely coordinating the strikes. Beskrestnov previously assessed that Russian forces used a Shahed drone on a mesh network repeater to strike the headquarters of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) on September 4.[67] A Ukrainian Telegram channel claimed on September 27 that Russian forces are also fielding modified Geran-5 K5 variants equipped with a navigation module that allows the drone to navigate using reference images of the ground even when it loses connection with its operator and satellites.[68] The channel claimed that the Geran-5 K5’s high speed — reportedly faster than typical Geran-4 or Geran-5 drones — means that it is often misreported as a Dan-T loitering munition.
Russian forces likely intend to test a new ballistic missile in Ukraine before the end of 2026 . Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told Ukrainian news agency UNIAN in an article published on September 28 that Russian forces intend to test a ballistic missile with an 800-kilometer range by the end of 2026 as part of broader efforts to modernize its missile arsenal.[69] The GUR reported that Russia is also further modernizing its “Iskander-1000” ballistic missile (variant 9M723), which Russian forces have already launched at Ukraine, to support a lighter warhead and increase the missile’s range from about 550 kilometers to about 700 kilometers. The GUR stated that Russia is struggling to produce 9M723 ballistic missiles, however. Russia has been increasing production and use of ballistic missiles in its strike packages amid global Patriot interceptor shortages that have impeded Ukraine’s ability to down Russian ballistic missiles, particularly ahead of winter.[70]
Significant Activity in Belarus
Nothing significant to report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
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https://x.com/Magyargeo56/status/2104477324364157312?s=20 ; https://x.com/Zeldamices/status/2104549934913462390?s=20 ; https://x.com/Magyargeo56/status/2104515104259924410?s=20 ; https://t.me/supernova_plus/60677 ; https://x.com/Zeldamices/status/2104522036479401990?s=20 ; https://t.me/astrapress/126549 ; [24] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/21109 [25] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/13059 ; https://t.me/shadow_strike_27/1741 [26] https://t.me/mod_russia/67705 [27] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42394 [28] https://t.me/E_V_Kovalchuk/2922 [29] https://www.interfax dot ru/russia/1118867 [30] https://t.me/arx_spn/31290 [31] https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/2104566489311260885; https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/2104566494650847427; https://t.me/craftoriz/762 [32] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/13065 ; https://t.me/contraomnes4/300 [33] https://t.me/severnnyi/9450 [34] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42392 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42390 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/99658 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/37241 [35] https://t.me/divgen/84254 ; https://t.me/divgen/84263 [36]https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42392; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42390; https://t.me/dva_majors/99658; https://t.me/wargonzo/37241; https://t.me/grvZapad/19913 [37] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/28/usi-yihni-taktyky-vzhe-vyvcheni-u-115-j-brygadi-rozpovily-pro-polyuvannya-na-vorozhi-bpla/ ; https://youtu.be/EHiuKvFUr2w [38] https://t.me/khartiia/4687; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/28/na-kupyanshhyni-rosiyany-vykradayut-lyudej-cherez-gazovu-trubu-prykryvayuchy-svij-vidhid/ [39] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russias-fpv-drone-campaign-in-ukraine-institutionalizes-intentional-civilian-harm-as-a-tool-of-war/; [40] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42392; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42390; https://t.me/grvZapad/19913 [41] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42392 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42390 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/99658 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/56346 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/37241 ; https://t.me/DnevnikDesantnika/48138 ; 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https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-4-2026/ [52] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-24-2026/ [53] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42394 [54] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42392 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42390 ; https://t.me/voin_dv/21321 ; https://t.me/motopatriot78/56341 [55] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42392; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42390; https://t.me/dva_majors/99658; https://t.me/voin_dv/21321 [56] https://x.com/moklasen/status/2104295911438299415; https://t.me/UVO58/2058 [57] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42394 [58] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/ukraine-stops-reporting-russia-missile-data-as-defenses-struggle?srnd=homepage-americas; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11-2026/ [59] https://t.me/kpszsu/80852 [60] https://t.me/kpszsu/81127 [61] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-26-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-12-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-2-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-29-2026/ [62] https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7684; https://kyivindependent dot com/ukraine-war-latest-russia-strikes-downtown-kyiv-kills-one-injures-21-damages-national-academy-of-sciences/; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/1414402-vnaslidok-ataki-rf-u-kievi-poskodzena-klinika-dobrobut/ ; https://www.facebook.com/MCDobrobut/posts/pfbid09HphdMLiGY6JnCgDiSBbr5as61sCA8JmPUToBd17tQVUPsymYW6eNJ6KTiPc1aoil?locale=uk_UA; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/1414402-vnaslidok-ataki-rf-u-kievi-poskodzena-klinika-dobrobut/ ; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/1414120-u-kievi-vnaslidok-ataki-rfbudivla-nanu-gorit-budivla-nanu/; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7664; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7665; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7666; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7667; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7668; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7669; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7671; https://t.me/vitaliy_klitschko/7678; https://t.me/kyivoda/59007; https://t.me/kyivoda/59038; https://t.me/press_kobl/4478 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/28/vorozha-ataka-na-kyyivshhynu-u-sofiyivskij-borshhagivczi-zagynuly-dvoye-lyudej-blyzko-10-poraneni/; https://t.me/tkachenkotymur/2973; https://t.me/astrapress/126537; ttps://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/21099; V [63] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/21100; https://t.me/istories_media/13693 ; https://meduza dot io/news/2026/09/28/v-harkove-bolee-20-chelovek-postradali-pri-rossiyskom-udare-po-mnogokvartirnomu-domu; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/32231; https://t.me/synegubov/26004 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26042 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26046; https://t.me/synegubov/25997 ; https://t.me/synegubov/25999 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26003 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26013 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26016 ; https://t.me/ihor_terekhov/4675 ; https://t.me/ihor_terekhov/4676; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/67981; [64] https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/21110; https://t.me/synegubov/26004 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26042 ; https://t.me/synegubov/26046; https://t.me/bbcrussian/99790; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/32218; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/28876; https://t.me/vilkul/18073; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/32219; https://t.me/mykola_lukashuk/28879; https://t.me/vilkul/18075; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/32225; https://t.me/bbcrussian/99795; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/32229; https://t.me/odeskaODA/21013; https://t.me/odeskaODA/21039; https://t.me/odeskaODA/21039; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/75970 [65] https://t.me/serhii_flash/7775; https://euromaidanpress dot com/2026/09/28/russia-is-launching-a-faster-geran-5-at-ukraine-that-satellite-jamming-may-no-longer-knock-off-course-a-monitoring-channel-says/; 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https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-14-2026/
乌克兰第三军公布了“维瓦尔第行动”第三阶段在莱曼方向的进展,包括成功佯攻并迷惑俄军,以及解放诺韦、里德科杜布、卡捷琳尼夫卡、卡尔皮夫卡和新米哈伊利夫卡(均位于莱曼以北)。乌克兰第三军军长安德烈·比列茨基准将于9月28日报告称,乌克兰军队在第三阶段解放了51平方公里土地,使“维瓦尔第行动”三个阶段的总解放面积达到176平方公里。[1] 比列茨基表示,乌克兰军队从尚德里霍洛韦(位于莱曼西北部)向泽莱纳多利纳(位于尚德里霍洛韦东北部)佯攻,分散了俄军在该地区北翼的主要战术目标——诺韦。比列茨基指出,乌克兰军队使用改装成车载简易爆炸装置(VBIED)的BTR-80装甲运兵车(APC)突破俄军防线,摧毁俄军重型防御工事。值得注意的是,乌克兰军队能够在未遭受俄军无人机打击的情况下,将装甲运兵车部署并推进至俄军重型防御工事附近,这表明乌克兰军队已经压制或以其他方式瓦解了俄军的无人机防御系统。乌克兰军队开展了广泛的构筑作战和中程打击行动,以减轻俄军无人机和电子战(EW)系统的威胁,并取得战术无人机优势,从而助力乌克兰机械化部队向莱曼方向推进。[2]
“维瓦尔第行动”加剧了俄罗斯极端民族主义军事博客的论调,他们认为俄罗斯军队内部普遍存在的谎言文化正在损害俄军,并助长乌克兰在莱曼方向的胜利。著名极端民族主义军事博客作者德瓦·马约拉(Dva Mayora)在9月28日乌克兰媒体报道“维瓦尔第行动”后声称,俄罗斯关于前线作战的信息政策掩盖了战场上的严峻形势,低估了乌克兰的作战能力,这导致乌克兰的胜利(例如“维瓦尔第行动”)公开化后出现问题。[3] 这位军事博客作者声称,由于俄罗斯媒体不断用胜利的言论充斥信息空间,将乌克兰的防线描绘成濒临崩溃,俄罗斯官员将难以向公众解释局势。另一位极端民族主义军事博客作者斯塔尔谢·埃迪(Starshe Edy)则声称,关于乌克兰在莱曼方向取得进展的不实报道阻碍了俄罗斯军事指挥部的作战计划和增援决策。[4]这位军事博主声称,乌克兰军队利用了俄军人员不愿向上级指挥系统汇报乌克兰战果的漏洞。俄罗斯军事博主越来越批评“美化报告”文化,这种文化指的是战场指挥官向上级指挥部夸大俄军的推进情况,阻碍作战计划的制定,从而为乌克兰的推进提供了机会。[5] 俄军指挥系统内部关于前线局势的不准确汇报持续削弱俄军的战场态势感知能力,并降低俄军指挥官干扰乌克兰步兵和装备推进的能力。
克里姆林宫正在限制有关俄罗斯石油和天然气行业的公开信息,这很可能是为了掩盖和保护俄罗斯的石油供应,其原因多种多样,包括应对乌克兰的袭击、西方的制裁,以及俄罗斯国内因燃料短缺而产生的不满和恐慌。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京于9月28日签署了一项法令,限制获取有关俄罗斯石油和天然气行业的信息,包括市场数据集;炼油和产量;买家、卖家和中间商;运输和转运信息;交易日期和时间;以及石油码头和储油设施的地理坐标。[6] 这项信息限制可能旨在实现一个或多个目标。在乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油基础设施进行有效的远程打击行动之际,克里姆林宫很可能试图提高其石油和天然气行业的运营安全。[7]更严格的信息环境或许有助于减轻西方现有对俄罗斯石油行业的制裁的影响,并通过掩盖俄罗斯对可能成为二级制裁目标的能源进口的依赖程度,来抵御新的制裁。克里姆林宫也可能试图向普通俄罗斯民众隐瞒俄罗斯持续的国内燃料危机的规模和普遍程度,因为这场危机已在俄罗斯引发了广泛的社会不满,并助长了恐慌性抢购,进一步加剧了燃料供应短缺。[8] 据克里姆林宫通讯社塔斯社9月28日报道,一位业内人士透露,俄罗斯当局正准备将柴油出口禁令再延长一个月,至2026年10月底,该禁令最初于2026年7月实施。[9]
2026年9月,俄罗斯军队第二次在距离乌克兰-波兰边境亚霍登口岸仅数公里处发动无人机袭击。波兰在袭击后宣布计划修改其防空交战规则。9月28日白天,一架俄罗斯“格朗-5”喷气式攻击无人机袭击了沃伦州亚霍登国际边境检查站附近的一个卡车停车场,该地点距离乌克兰-波兰边境不到1.5公里。[10] 地理定位视频显示,无人机在击中不明物体后俯冲并发生爆炸。[11] 波兰副总理兼国防部长瓦迪斯瓦夫·科西尼亚克-卡梅什证实,波兰防空系统已进入警戒状态,并紧急出动飞机应对此次袭击,但没有空中目标侵犯波兰领空。[12]俄罗斯对乌克兰-波兰边境沿线的乌克兰边境基础设施,包括亚霍登-多罗胡斯克边境口岸的袭击,屡次迫使波兰当局紧急调动防空力量,并重新评估波兰和北约的防空态势。[13] 波兰国防部副部长切扎里·托姆奇克于9月28日表示,波兰将在“未来几天”修改交战规则,届时波兰战斗机和直升机只需使用雷达进行“明确识别”,而无需像以前那样通过雷达和飞行员目视进行“目视识别”,即可对侵犯波兰领空的物体进行攻击。[14] 这一改变将使波兰飞行员能够利用雷达提供的飞行轨迹、速度、侵犯领空位置以及通信响应等信息来决定是否击落不明飞行物,从而实现更快速的反应。 Tomczyk 表示,这一改变将使波兰飞行员能够更快地对从“俄罗斯方向”飞向波兰的无人机和导弹做出反应。[15] 值得注意的是,波兰当局采取这一步骤之际,北约国家正试图找到适当的应对措施,以应对从乌克兰接近或进入其领空的俄罗斯无人机,这往往导致北约防空部队没有足够的时间在这些威胁进入盟国领空之前识别和打击它们。[16]
9月28日,俄罗斯总统普京签署法令,将德国批发零售商麦德龙(Metro AG)在俄罗斯的资产移交给俄罗斯公司UK Torg Rus LLC进行“临时”管理。[17] 克里姆林宫继续将俄罗斯和外国资产国有化,其中包括一些知名外国企业的资产。ISW持续评估认为,普京此举可能是为了在战争开支不断增加的情况下,为更广泛地国有化俄罗斯私人资产以增加国家收入创造条件。[18] 克里姆林宫也可能寻求通过对在俄罗斯运营的欧洲公司采取胁迫措施,迫使欧洲国家采取更有利于俄罗斯的政策立场。
曾任驻乌克兰中央和北部部队指挥官的俄罗斯陆军上将亚历山大·拉平于9月28日就任鞑靼斯坦共和国副总理。[19] 鞑靼斯坦共和国总理鲁斯塔姆·明尼哈诺夫宣布,鞑靼斯坦共和国政府正在组建一个新的机构,以支持在乌克兰作战的现役军人,拉平将担任该机构的副总理。据报道,拉平在2025年9月退役后曾担任明尼哈诺夫的顾问。[20] 俄罗斯官方报纸《俄罗斯商业日报》(RBK)报道称,拉平在鞑靼斯坦执政党统一俄罗斯党的党内初选中位列第二,但由于其退伍军人身份,得票率提高了25%,最终排名第一,并获得了俄罗斯国家杜马的席位。[21]
乌克兰第三军公布了“维瓦尔第行动”第三阶段在莱曼方向的详细情况,其中包括成功佯攻和欺骗俄军,以及解放诺韦、里德科杜布、卡捷琳尼夫卡、卡尔皮夫卡和新米哈伊利夫卡(均位于莱曼以北)。
“维瓦尔第行动”助长了俄罗斯极端民族主义军事博客作者的论调,即俄罗斯军队内部普遍存在的撒谎文化正在损害俄罗斯军队,并促成乌克兰在莱曼方向取得胜利。
克里姆林宫限制了有关俄罗斯石油和天然气行业的公开信息,这很可能是为了掩盖和保护俄罗斯的石油供应,原因多种多样,包括乌克兰的袭击、西方的制裁,以及俄罗斯国内因燃料短缺而产生的不满和恐慌。
2026年9月,俄罗斯军队第二次在距离乌克兰-波兰边境亚霍登过境点仅几公里处发动无人机袭击。袭击发生后,波兰宣布打算修改其防空交战规则。
9月28日,俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京签署法令,将德国批发零售商麦德龙股份公司在俄罗斯的资产移交给俄罗斯公司UK Torg Rus LLC进行“临时”管理。
曾任乌克兰中央和北部部队指挥官的俄罗斯陆军上将亚历山大·拉平于9月28日就任鞑靼斯坦共和国副总理。
乌克兰军队最近在扎波罗热州西部取得了进展。
俄罗斯一夜之间向乌克兰发射了289架无人机。
9月27日至28日夜间,乌克兰军队继续对俄罗斯石油基础设施和军事资产发动远程打击行动。
我们不会详细报道俄罗斯的战争罪行,因为西方媒体已对此进行充分报道,而且这些罪行不会直接影响我们正在评估和预测的军事行动。我们将继续评估并报道这些犯罪活动对乌克兰军队和乌克兰民众的影响,特别是对乌克兰城市地区战斗的影响。我们强烈谴责俄罗斯违反武装冲突法和日内瓦公约的行为以及反人类罪行,尽管我们并未在这些报告中详细描述这些罪行。
乌克兰在俄罗斯联邦的行动
9月27日至28日夜间,乌克兰军队继续对俄罗斯石油基础设施和军事设施进行远程打击。乌克兰安全局(SBU)9月28日报告称,9月27日至28日夜间,乌克兰军队袭击并纵火焚烧了位于克拉斯诺达尔边疆区新塔罗夫斯卡亚镇的埃德尔维斯-95和丁尤格石油油库(距前线约350公里)、位于克拉斯诺达尔边疆区巴甫洛夫斯卡亚镇的卢克石油-尤格涅夫特产品油库(距前线约310公里)以及位于克拉斯诺达尔边疆区斯塔罗尼热斯特布利耶夫斯卡亚镇的安格林斯卡亚油库(距前线约305公里)。[22] 9 月 27 日和 28 日发布的地理定位视频显示,乌克兰军队袭击后,埃德尔瓦伊斯-95 油库发生爆炸,安杰林斯卡油库升起大量浓烟。[23] 乌克兰总统泽连斯基 9 月 28 日表示,乌克兰军队还袭击了图拉州和沃罗涅日州的未指明的俄罗斯国防工厂以及卡卢加州和奥廖尔州的无人机发射场。[24]
俄罗斯的支持行动:北方轴心
俄罗斯军队近期在苏梅市西北部进行了一次渗透行动。根据9月27日公布的地理定位视频,乌克兰军队袭击了哈尔科夫卡以西(苏梅市西北部)的一个俄军阵地,ISW评估认为这是一次俄军渗透行动。[25] 俄罗斯国防部于9月28日声称,俄军占领了乌拉诺夫(苏梅市西北部)。[26]
9月27日至28日夜间,乌克兰军队继续对布良斯克州和卡卢加州的俄罗斯军事目标和铁路基础设施发动中程打击。乌克兰总参谋部9月28日报告称,乌克兰军队袭击了布良斯克州塞尔佐附近的一套俄罗斯“铠甲-S2”防空系统(距国际边界约113公里)。[27] 布良斯克州州长叶戈尔·科瓦尔丘克9月28日声称,乌克兰军队袭击了迪亚特科沃-柳迪诺沃铁路段(距国际边界约140公里),摧毁了部分桥梁,导致10节车厢脱轨,并袭击了布良斯克州乌涅奇斯基区和纳夫林斯基区的铁路基础设施(均距国际边界约65公里)。[28]莫斯科铁路新闻处宣布,在乌克兰对布良斯克州和卡卢加州发动袭击后,乌涅恰-兹林卡和迪亚特科沃-柳迪诺沃铁路段的列车服务暂时停止。[29] 9月28日,一位俄罗斯军事博主声称,乌克兰军队正在布良斯克州积极探索一条空中走廊,寻找俄罗斯防空部队和机动火力小组,以便乌克兰无人机向莫斯科市和圣彼得堡起飞。[30]
俄罗斯的支持行动:哈尔科夫州
俄罗斯军队近期在哈尔科夫州北部进行了渗透行动。根据9月28日公布的地理定位视频,乌克兰军队袭击了托卡里夫卡市中心(哈尔科夫市北部)一处被俄军占领的建筑物,ISW评估认为这是一次俄军渗透行动。[31] 根据9月16日公布的地理定位视频,乌克兰军队还袭击了霍普蒂夫卡(哈尔科夫市北部)以东E-105哈尔科夫市至别尔哥罗德市公路沿线的一处俄军阵地,ISW评估认为这也是一次俄军渗透行动。[32] 9月28日,有消息人士称,乌克兰军队正在科扎恰洛潘、霍普蒂夫卡(均位于哈尔科夫市北部)以及斯塔里齐亚附近(哈尔科夫市东北部)的俄军后方积极开展行动,试图破坏俄军在该地区的后勤和增援行动。[33]
9月27日和28日,俄军继续向大布尔鲁克方向发起进攻,但并未取得确切进展。[34] 一位俄罗斯军事博主在9月27日和28日声称,俄军向洛沙科夫和赫日尼亚科夫(均位于大布尔鲁克以北)以东推进。[35]
俄罗斯的支持行动:奥斯基尔河
9月27日和28日,俄军继续向库皮扬斯克方向发动进攻,但并未取得进展,因为乌克兰军队在库皮扬斯克东南方向进行了反击。[36]
乌克兰部队在库皮扬斯克方向有效拦截了多种俄罗斯无人机,但俄罗斯喷气式无人机和恶劣天气条件持续影响着乌克兰的无人机拦截率。9月28日,一名在库皮扬斯克方向作战的乌克兰无人机拦截连的士官报告称,近几周来,俄罗斯军队在该旅的责任区内积极开展进攻行动,但目前局势仍然稳定。[37] 该士官表示,尽管俄罗斯试图改变无人机的飞行路线,但乌克兰部队仍在库皮扬斯克方向有效拦截了多种俄罗斯无人机。指挥官指出,俄罗斯军队使用喷气式无人机以及雨雾等恶劣天气条件影响了乌克兰的无人机拦截率,但他同时表示,乌克兰制造商正在积极研发新技术解决方案以应对这些问题。
俄军在库皮扬斯克北部撤退至一条天然气管道时,将乌克兰平民用作人肉盾牌,此举直接违反了国际人道主义法。乌克兰第二哈尔蒂亚军于9月28日报告称,俄军利用包括老人和儿童在内的平民掩护其撤退至霍卢比夫卡(库皮扬斯克北部)通往被占领土的管道,而乌克兰军队则在该地区进行了反击。[38] 国际安全观察组织(ISW)持续评估认为,俄罗斯将平民用作人肉盾牌的行为表明,俄罗斯军队内部存在一种普遍存在的文化,即试图将对平民的伤害武器化并最大化,以此作为战争的手段。[39]
9月27日和28日,俄军继续向博罗瓦方向发起进攻,但并未取得进展。[40]
俄罗斯主要行动:夺取乌克兰要塞带并完成对顿涅茨克州的占领
俄军下属主要行动一:从西北方向包围要塞带
9月27日和28日,俄军在莱曼战术区继续进行进攻行动,但由于乌克兰军队在该地区进行反击,俄军未能取得进展。[41] 俄罗斯军事博客作者声称,乌克兰军队正试图将俄军赶回热列别茨河对岸。[42]
有关乌克兰“维瓦尔第行动”第三阶段的报告,请参阅主旨文本。
俄军第二主力行动——从东面进攻要塞带
9月27日和28日,俄军继续在斯拉维扬斯克以东向尼古拉耶夫卡方向发动进攻,但由于乌克兰军队在该地区进行反击,俄军未能取得进展。[43] 一位俄罗斯军事博主声称,乌克兰军队一直在积极向赖-奥列克桑德里夫卡(尼古拉耶夫卡东南方向)推进,但尚未清除该定居点以北的森林,俄军正从该森林向尼古拉耶夫卡发起进攻。[44]
俄罗斯军事博客作者承认乌克兰军队在恰西夫亚尔地区的存在。一位与克里姆林宫有关联的俄罗斯军事博客作者于9月27日声称,乌克兰军队继续通过尼古拉耶夫卡(恰西夫亚尔以西)渗透到恰西夫亚尔,并且尼古拉耶夫卡本身是一个存在争议的“灰色地带”。[45] 乌克兰军队最近在恰西夫亚尔西南部取得了进展,而俄罗斯军队可能并未在尼古拉耶夫卡或波多尔斯克(尼古拉耶夫卡以西)保持稳固的阵地。[46]
俄军下属主要行动#3——从南部向要塞带推进
乌克兰军队很可能已将俄军渗透者从德鲁日基夫卡西南方向的阵地清除。一位俄罗斯军事博主声称,乌克兰军队从赖斯克向佩特里夫卡和托列茨克(均位于赖斯克东南方向)发起反击,这表明乌克兰军队此前已将俄军渗透者从赖斯克清除。[47] 俄罗斯军事博主还声称,乌克兰军队在赖斯克、托列茨克和新米科拉伊夫卡(赖斯克以西)附近发起反击,以阻止俄军从西南方向包围德鲁日基夫卡。[48] 这些军事博主还声称,乌克兰军队从奥列克谢耶沃-德鲁日基夫卡、库尔蒂夫卡附近(奥列克谢耶沃-德鲁日基夫卡以北)以及科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡以西发起反击。
俄军下属主要行动#4——从西南方向包围要塞带
9月27日和28日,俄军继续在多布罗皮利亚战术区发动进攻,但并未取得确切进展。[49] 俄罗斯国防部于9月28日声称,俄军中央集团军的部分兵力占领了新伏丁那(位于多布罗皮利亚西北约8公里处,距离该地区俄军最近的推进点约10公里)。[50] 俄罗斯国防部的这一说法很可能是克里姆林宫认知战策略的一部分,旨在夸大俄军在战场上的胜利,并将乌克兰的防御描绘成崩溃的景象。[51] 俄罗斯国防部最近还错误地声称俄军已包围了多布罗皮利亚的乌克兰军队,这与所有现有证据相悖。[52]
乌克兰军队继续对被占领的顿涅茨克州境内的俄罗斯军事目标进行中程打击。乌克兰总参谋部9月28日报告称,乌克兰军队于9月27日或9月27日至28日夜间袭击了位于被占领的顿涅茨克市(距前线约45公里)的俄罗斯无人机储存、准备和发射基地;位于被占领的马里乌波尔(距前线约102公里)的俄罗斯维修单位;位于被占领的马基伊夫卡(距前线约47公里)和乌斯季尼夫卡(可能指卢甘斯克州北顿涅茨克区的一个居民点)的俄罗斯弹药库;以及位于被占领的尼科尔斯克(距前线约94公里)的俄罗斯物资和技术仓库。[53]
俄罗斯支援行动:进军第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州
9月28日,俄罗斯和乌克兰方面均未报告新巴甫洛夫卡方向有地面活动。
9月27日和28日,俄军继续在奥列克桑德里夫卡方向发动进攻,但未能取得进展,因为乌克兰军队进行了反击。[54]
俄罗斯的支持行动:南方轴心
9月28日和29日,俄军继续向胡利亚波列方向发起进攻,但并未取得进展。[55]
乌克兰军队最近向奥里希夫东南方向推进。根据 9 月 27 日发布的地理定位视频显示,俄罗斯军队袭击了马拉托克马奇卡以南的乌克兰阵地,这表明乌克兰军队最近在该地区取得了进展。[56]
乌克兰军队继续对被占领的扎波罗热州的俄罗斯军事目标进行前线打击。乌克兰总参谋部9月28日报告称,乌克兰军队袭击了位于维诺格拉季夫卡(距前线约30公里)的俄罗斯临时部署点和地面控制站。[57]
9月28日,俄罗斯和乌克兰方面均未报告赫尔松方向有地面活动。
俄罗斯空袭、导弹和无人机行动
注:自 8 月 11 日起,乌克兰军方停止定期报告俄罗斯发射的导弹数量和拦截的导弹数量。[58]
9月27日至28日夜间以及9月28日白天,俄罗斯军队对乌克兰发动了毁灭性的无人机袭击,重点目标是基辅市。乌克兰空军报告称,俄罗斯军队从奥廖尔市、罗斯托夫州米列罗沃、克拉斯诺达尔边疆区滨海-阿赫塔尔斯克、斯摩棱斯克州沙塔洛沃、被占领的顿涅茨克市以及被占领的克里米亚赫瓦尔季斯克方向,连夜发射了165架“沙赫德”型攻击无人机(其中79架为喷气式无人机)、“格贝拉”型攻击无人机和“帕罗迪亚”型诱饵无人机。[59] 乌克兰空军报告称,乌克兰军队击落了112架无人机,空袭车辆击中了14个地点,另有7个地点落有碎片。乌克兰空军报告称,9月28日当地时间06:30至18:30,俄军再次出动124架攻击无人机(其中86架为喷气式无人机),包括“非洲菊”(Gerbera)型无人机和“班德罗尔”(Banderol)或“丹-T”(Dan-T)巡飞弹,主要目标为基辅州。[60] 乌克兰空军报告称,乌克兰军队击落了其中86架无人机(包括49架喷气式无人机),并击中了29个目标。乌克兰空军指出,截至当地时间18:30,仍有大量俄罗斯无人机在空中飞行。俄军很可能像近几周来那样,试图进一步延长对乌克兰城市的打击波次,以削弱乌克兰的防空能力,为后续打击做好准备。[61]
据报道,过去24小时内,俄罗斯的空袭造成至少110名乌克兰平民受伤。俄军袭击了基辅市的乌克兰科学院大楼、多布罗布特医疗中心、仓库、加油站以及民用和通信基础设施,造成至少1人死亡,至少24人受伤,其中包括乌克兰前国家安全与国防委员会秘书弗拉基米尔·霍尔布林。[62] 俄军还袭击了哈尔科夫市的一栋居民楼,造成至少38人受伤,另有数量不明的平民死亡;袭击了第聂伯罗市的一个商业中心,造成至少18人受伤;并袭击了扎波罗热市的居民楼和其他基础设施,造成至少30人受伤。[63] 俄军还袭击了敖德萨州一艘悬挂帕劳国旗的船只;以及苏梅州、罗夫诺州和敖德萨州的居民楼;以及文尼察、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克、赫梅利尼茨基和扎波罗热州的关键基础设施。 [64]
俄罗斯军队开始使用喷气式“沙赫德”(Shahed)无人机改进型,这些无人机能够传输实时视频流并规避乌克兰的干扰,用于对基辅市的袭击。俄罗斯方面公布了一段9月25日俄罗斯无人机袭击基辅市一处商业中心的视频,表明至少部分俄罗斯“沙赫德”型无人机能够将实时视频流传回操作员,以辅助目标定位和战损评估。[65] 乌克兰总统国防技术顾问谢尔盖·“闪电”·别斯克列斯特诺夫报告称,一架俄罗斯“格朗-5”(Geran-5)喷气式攻击无人机袭击了基辅市的商业中心,同时另一架“沙赫德”型无人机在约三公里外的空中盘旋,作为“格朗-5”攻击无人机的网状无线电信号中继器。[66] 别斯克列斯特诺夫报告称,第二架“沙赫德”无人机随后袭击了基辅市郊外的一处食品仓库,并评估认为俄罗斯无人机飞行员正在密切协调此次袭击。贝斯克列斯特诺夫此前评估称,俄罗斯军队于9月4日使用一架配备网状网络中继器的“沙赫德”(Shahed)无人机袭击了乌克兰安全局(SBU)总部。[67] 9月27日,一个乌克兰Telegram频道声称,俄罗斯军队还在部署改进型的“格兰-5 K5”(Geran-5 K5)无人机,该无人机配备了导航模块,即使与操作员和卫星失去连接,也能利用地面参考图像进行导航。[68] 该频道声称,“格兰-5 K5”无人机的高速——据称比典型的“格兰-4”或“格兰-5”无人机更快——意味着它经常被误认为是“丹-T”(Dan-T)巡飞弹。
俄罗斯军队可能计划在2026年底前在乌克兰测试一种新型弹道导弹。乌克兰国家军事情报局(GUR)在9月28日发表于乌克兰通讯社(UNIAN)的一篇文章中表示,作为其导弹武库现代化计划的一部分,俄罗斯军队计划在2026年底前测试一枚射程为800公里的弹道导弹。[69] GUR报道称,俄罗斯还在进一步改进其“伊斯坎德尔-1000”弹道导弹(9M723型),该导弹此前已在乌克兰进行过发射,改进后的导弹将配备更轻的弹头,并将射程从约550公里提高到约700公里。GUR指出,俄罗斯目前在生产9M723型弹道导弹方面面临困难。由于全球爱国者拦截导弹短缺,阻碍了乌克兰击落俄罗斯弹道导弹的能力,尤其是在冬季来临之前,俄罗斯一直在增加弹道导弹的生产和使用,以增强其打击能力。[70]
白俄罗斯的重大活动
没有什么重大事项需要报告。
注:ISW 不接收任何来源的机密材料,仅使用公开信息,并广泛参考俄罗斯、乌克兰和西方媒体的报道和社交媒体,以及市售卫星图像和其他地理空间数据作为报告的基础。所有参考资料均列于每份更新报告的尾注中。
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