Democrats dream of putting Florida back in play. Are they squandering their chance?

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Jean Philippeaux could barely hide the urgency in his voice as he described to David Jolly a television ad that for weeks has hammered Florida’s Democratic nominee for governor.

The ad claims Jolly supports a “hurricane tax.” Jolly told Philippeaux and a room full of other Haitian American leaders and voters in South Florida on Thursday that it was patently false.

Philippeaux wanted more than an explanation. “When are you going to respond to what you call lies about you?”

A counter punch would arrive on the airwaves imminently, Jolly assured Philippeaux. But he then acknowledged the larger problem hanging over his increasingly competitive race against Republican Rep. Byron Donalds.

“We’re not going to be able to scale up the way he has,” Jolly said. “It’s a function of money. He has a lot of money.”

The exchange captured a reality tempering the surging optimism of Florida Democrats. They believe — and many Republicans concede — that Jolly is within striking distance of Donalds, a remarkable development in a state the party had largely written off after a decade of GOP gains. Angie Nixon, the democratic socialist nominated to face Republican Sen. Ashley Moody , has also mounted a spirited challenge that has energized the party’s base. Making Florida competitive again would carry implications for Democrats well beyond this year’s races.

But the money has not followed the enthusiasm.

Donalds and an aligned political committee had raised more than $134 million as of September 25, dwarfing Jolly’s $16.6 million., campaign finance reports show. The various arms of the Democratic Party have largely remained on the sidelines in both statewide contests. Liberal donors have so far skipped the state, too.

As it is, Jolly and Democrats had purchased just $3 million of airtime in Florida as of Thursday, according to the campaign tracking firm AdImpact. That is less than the Democratic candidates have spent on TV ads in all but a handful of governor races, including Colorado, Massachusetts and New York — solidly blue states where victory is overwhelmingly expected. Nixon has faced financial disadvantages as well.

“I believe that organized people will beat big money any day, but right now we’re going against gigantic money,” Nixon told members of a Black church in Fort Lauderdale on Thursday as she asked the congregation to part with “a little bit of treasure.”

The reluctance to invest in Florida, a notoriously expensive state for campaigns, is illustrative of the broader financial constraints that Democrats face as they try to capitalize on a favorable political environment with far less money than President Donald Trump and his party. With limited resources, Democrats have prioritized other battlegrounds, including a costly fight over a Texas Senate seat that has drawn intense interest from donors large and small.

Those decisions also reflect a calculation that once-purple Florida has turned a shade of red that might not flip to blue even in a strong Democratic year. History lends credence to that caution: Floridians haven’t elected a Democratic governor in 30 years.

“If you go to the grocery store with only $100 to buy groceries for the week, are you gonna buy the apple pie?” said John Morgan, an Orlando personal injury lawyer and Democratic megadonor. “No, you’re going to say, ‘let’s get the milk, let’s get the meat, let’s get the vegetables.’ There might not be enough money for dessert.”

“Florida is dessert,” he added. “Texas is meat.”

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Jolly has publicly and privately urged Democratic officials to give the state another look. He expected a tightening race would draw them back in, he said, and perhaps even entice the growing list of Democratic presidential hopefuls to pitch in.

So far, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has offered the most tangible assistance. Pritzker campaigned with Jolly earlier this year and gave his political committee $50,000 last month. Still, for the billionaire heir to the Hyatt Hotel empire that contribution amounted to a fraction of the $65 million he has funneled into his own reelection, a race he’s expected to win handily. Former Congressman and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, another potential 2028 contender , will campaign with Jolly next week.

“I had long thought that all these presidential candidates would decide to come help in Florida,” Jolly said, “If for nothing else, if they became the champion of David Jolly and David Jolly wins, David Jolly’s going to remember they helped. I don’t mean that in a transactional way. It’s just the enlightened self-interest of someone looking to run for president.”

“If Florida’s voters demonstrate we’re purple again and elect a Democratic governor, every presidential candidate, including Republicans, now have to be here for the next two years,” he added.

In a statement, Democratic Governors Association spokesman Kevin Donohue said the organization is “ready to capitalize on any opportunity to make a real difference in this race in the final stretch” but stopped short of committing real dollars.

Progressive Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has pledged $250,000 to Nixon and will hold a rally with her later this month. But top Senate Democrats remain focused on other contests they view as more winnable, one person familiar with the discussions said.

Steve Schale, the veteran Democratic strategist behind President Barack Obama’s successful Florida campaigns, called his party’s approach short-sighted. Failing to invest in Florida this November makes it harder for Democrats to compete there in the 2028 presidential race, he said, and potentially more costly still after the 2030 census is expected to reshape the party’s path to 270 electoral college votes.

“We have to win other states and they’re all in the South,” Schale said. “And we’ve had success in Florida more often than anywhere else in the Sun Belt.”

“That’s where showing signs of life this cycle is important,” he added.

Eight years ago, a Democratic retreat from Florida would have seemed implausible.

The party lost races for governor and Senate in 2018, but only by the narrowest of margins. The defeats, after spending tens of millions of dollars, were bruising. Still, Democrats vowed to regroup.

Instead, the losses compounded. Four years later, DeSantis won re-election by 19 points , a rout that crystallized Florida’s transformation from perennial battleground to Republican stronghold. By the 2024 presidential election, national Democrats had all but abandoned the state and Trump won it by 13.

Trump’s return to Washington, however, has given Florida Democrats reason to reconsider how far out of reach the state really is.

Miami elected a Democratic mayor in December for the first time in three decades. In August, Democrats picked up seats on the school board in Sarasota County, booting one of the co-founders of the conservative group Mom’s for Liberty. The party has also won a handful of special elections for GOP-leaning legislative seats, including the state House district that includes Mar-a-Lago .

The same forces shaping the midterms nationally are present in Florida: an unpopular Republican president and persistent anxiety over the cost of living. Hispanic voters, meanwhile, are showing signs of moving away from Trump, a potentially consequential shift in a state where they make up a substantial share of the electorate. And, Florida’s long-troubled property insurance market has added another source of economic frustration for voters and more headwinds for the Republicans overseeing the crisis.

Data centers have emerged as another flashpoint. Donalds, once an enthusiastic booster of their expansion, now defends local governments that turn them away after facing blowback on the issue during his primary.

Republicans aren’t panicking yet, one GOP fundraiser in Florida told CNN, but they are getting nervous. Donalds did little to ease those concerns in August, when he failed to eclipse 50 percent of the vote in the Republican primary despite carrying Trump’s unequivocal support. Nor did DeSantis help by withholding his endorsement of Donalds until after the primary, and the outgoing governor has done little in recent weeks to boost the Republican hoping to succeed him.

Trump has also lately devoted more attention to a race Republicans once expected to win comfortably. Last month, he gave Donalds a speaking slot at his midterm convention in Dallas, which the president said were reserved for candidates “in tight races.” The White House sent Vice President JD Vance to rally Republicans in Central Florida on Thursday and Trump has announced plans to campaign with Donalds as well.

Donalds said he welcomed Trump’s visit to Florida and rejected the suggestion that it reflected Republican concerns about the race.

“The president has always been active politically,” Donalds told CNN after speaking to Republicans in Okaloosa County, one of several Panhandle counties he didn’t carry in August. “He’s not at all one of these people who just kind of sits on the sidelines and just throws out ads and watch stuff happen. He likes to fully engage. We’re very grateful that the president is choosing to come to Florida.”

Donalds said he is polling behind Trump two years ago and DeSantis four years ago because he is not as well known. He has campaigned aggressively across the state in recent weeks to raise his profile and convince voters he’s attuned to their affordability concerns, even as Trump continues to dismiss them as a Democratic political attack on his economic record.

“It’s about unifying our party while staying focused on the kitchen table issues that impact all Floridians,” Donalds said.

Some Republicans remain uncertain whether Donalds can hold together the coalition that elected DeSantis and Trump. One of Donalds’ primary opponents, James Fishback, continues to criticize the Republican nominee, on social media and in public appearances.

“There’s a question of whether (Donalds) is able to unite Republicans,” the GOP fundraiser said, who asked not to be named to speak freely about his party’s nominee. “And if there’s a candidate who can pull away those voters, it’s Jolly.”

Tina Russell/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Jolly represented the Tampa Bay area in Congress as a Republican until he lost his seat in 2016. He later became a cable-news mainstay and regular Trump critic and spent years considering a return to politics through a third-party bid. In April 2025, he registered as a Democrat and announced a campaign for governor.

It’s a path Florida Democrats have traveled before.

Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor, switched parties and unsuccessfully sought his old job in 2014. Democrats nominated him again in 2022, only to see him lose overwhelmingly to DeSantis. Between those campaigns, Crist defeated Jolly in that 2016 House race.

Democrats hope Jolly’s background will appeal not only to moderates but also to Republicans disenchanted by Trump — a sizable share of which he would need to win in a state where GOP voters outnumber Democrats by 1.6 million. Meanwhile, Jolly’s campaign is leaning on Nixon, who is Black and has spent years organizing in Jacksonville, to bring out new Democrats or those who haven’t voted in recent elections in that key region of the state.

Donalds and his allies have seized on Jolly’s political evolution, describing him as opportunistic, disingenuous and a Crist retread. Republican Party of Florida Chairman Evan Power has called Jolly “Temu Charlie,” meaning his candidacy is an off-brand version of Crist’s 2022 run.

Jolly has shrugged off the comparisons and insists voters are attracted to his pragmatism.

“People got to watch my journey over 10 years,” Jolly said. “I don’t think the problem in politics are people who change, it’s people who won’t change. And change is part of the strength of our campaign.”

Morgan said the Crist comparison only makes it harder to sway snakebitten donors that this time Florida really is different.

“They’ve heard it so many times that (Florida is in play), the question becomes, ‘Are they just crying wolf again,’” said Morgan, whose frustrations with Democrats have led him to tease the creation of a third party.

Late last month, Jolly launched a salvo at his own party for not investing in his race, suggesting they would share blame if he came up short.

But days later, as he emerged from a donor meeting at a Coral Gables steakhouse and stepped into a black SUV with his wife Laura, Jolly sounded more upbeat. A check for $1 million had arrived that morning.

“I do think people are now starting to come in,” he said. “And I’m optimistic we’ll continue to see more.”

He still has an uphill climb. As of mid-September, Jolly’s political committee had received 18 donations of six figures or more. Donalds’ committee reported more than 300.

Jolly said he has enough money to share his message on television through Election Day. But he doesn’t have the funds to separately target Black voters, reach disaffected Republicans or sustain attacks against Donalds.

“I worry about an environment where he skates through with no scrutiny,” Jolly said. “But we can only control what we can control.”

Yet, Jolly has passed on the clearest opportunity to scrutinize Donalds directly: debating him. He said he won’t participate in any debates because “it’s just going to further divide us as a state and in our politics to have two candidates up there yelling at each other and fighting.” The decision has puzzled some Democrats and stunned Donalds’ camp.

On Friday, though, Jolly finally answered one of Donald’s’ claims in the airwaves. His new ad rebutted the suggestion Jolly supports a “hurricane tax” and called Donalds a “liar.”

Philippeaux , at the North Lauderdale event, worried it’s not enough.

“I’ve been watching,” he said. “I think he’s got to step it up.”

CNN’s David Wright and Sarah Ferris contributed to this report.

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

让·菲利普在向大卫·乔利描述一则电视广告时，语气中难掩急迫之情。这则广告已经持续数周抨击佛罗里达州民主党州长候选人。

广告声称乔利支持“飓风税”。周四，乔利在南佛罗里达州向菲利普以及满屋子的其他海地裔美国人领袖和选民表示，这完全是谎言。

菲利普想要的不仅仅是一个解释。“你什么时候才会回应那些你所谓的关于你的谎言？”

乔利向菲利普保证，反击之声很快就会在广播中响起。但他随后也承认，他与共和党众议员拜伦·唐纳兹之间日益激烈的竞争，背后隐藏着一个更大的问题。

“我们不可能像他那样扩大规模，”乔利说。“这取决于资金。他有很多钱。”

这段对话反映出佛罗里达州民主党人高涨的乐观情绪被现实所抑制。他们相信——许多共和党人也承认——乔利与唐纳德斯之间的差距已经非常小，这在共和党过去十年占据优势后，民主党几乎已经放弃的佛罗里达州，是一个令人瞩目的进展。民主党提名的社会主义者安吉·尼克松将挑战共和党参议员阿什利·穆迪，她也发起了一场激烈的挑战，这极大地鼓舞了民主党的支持者。佛罗里达州重新成为竞争激烈的战场，其意义将远远超出今年的选举。

但资金并没有跟上这股热情。

截至9月25日，唐纳兹及其关联的政治委员会已筹集超过1.34亿美元，远超乔利的1660万美元，竞选财务报告显示。民主党各部门在两场州级选举中基本保持观望。自由派捐助者迄今为止也未参与该州的竞选活动。

据竞选追踪公司AdImpact的数据显示，截至周四，乔利和民主党人在佛罗里达州仅购买了价值300万美元的电视广告时段。这比民主党候选人在除科罗拉多州、马萨诸塞州和纽约州（这些州都是民主党的传统票仓，胜算渺茫）以外的所有州长竞选中的电视广告支出都要少。尼克松也面临着同样的资金劣势。

“我相信，有组织的人民总有一天会战胜大金主，但现在我们正在对抗的是巨额资金，”尼克松周四在劳德代尔堡的一座黑人教堂里对教友们说，同时她还请求教友们捐出“一点财物”。

民主党不愿在佛罗里达州——一个竞选成本极高的州——投入资金，这反映了民主党在试图利用有利的政治环境时所面临的更广泛的财政困境，因为他们的资金远不及特朗普总统及其政党。由于资源有限，民主党已将重点放在其他关键州，其中包括一场耗资巨大的德克萨斯州参议院席位争夺战，这场争夺战吸引了众多大小捐款人的浓厚兴趣。

这些决定也反映出一种考量：曾经摇摆不定的佛罗里达州如今已变成红色，即使在民主党大获全胜的年份，也未必能转为蓝色。历史也印证了这种谨慎：佛罗里达州已经30年没有选出过民主党州长了。

“如果你只有100美元去超市买一周的食材，你会买苹果派吗？”奥兰多的一位人身伤害律师、民主党的大金主约翰·摩根说道，“不会，你会说，‘买牛奶，买肉，买蔬菜。’可能就没钱买甜点了。”

“佛罗里达是甜点，”他补充道，“德克萨斯是肉食。”

凯文·拉马克/路透社

乔利曾公开和私下敦促民主党官员重新考虑该州。他表示，他预计选情胶着会促使他们重新关注，甚至可能吸引越来越多的民主党总统候选人参与其中。

迄今为止，伊利诺伊州州长JB·普利兹克提供的帮助最为切实。普利兹克今年早些时候曾与乔利一同竞选，并在上个月向他的政治委员会捐赠了5万美元。然而，对于这位凯悦酒店集团的亿万富翁继承人来说，这笔捐款与他投入到自己连任竞选中的6500万美元相比，只是九牛一毛。预计他将轻松赢得这场竞选。另一位潜在的2028年总统候选人，前国会议员兼芝加哥市长拉姆·伊曼纽尔，将于下周与乔利一同竞选。

“我一直觉得所有这些总统候选人都会决定来佛罗里达州帮忙，”乔利说，“就算没有别的目的，如果他们能支持大卫·乔利，而大卫·乔利最终赢得了选举，大卫·乔利也会记住他们的帮助。我这么说并非出于利益交换，而是因为一个想竞选总统的人出于自身利益的考虑。”

“如果佛罗里达州的选民再次表明我们是一个摇摆州，并选举一位民主党州长，那么包括共和党人在内的所有总统候选人，都必须在接下来的两年里留在这里，”他补充道。

民主党州长协会发言人凯文·多诺霍在一份声明中表示，该组织“准备抓住任何机会，在最后阶段为这场竞选做出真正的贡献”，但并未承诺投入真金白银。

佛蒙特州进步派参议员伯尼·桑德斯已承诺向尼克松捐款25万美元，并将于本月晚些时候与她共同举行竞选集会。但一位知情人士透露，参议院民主党高层仍将注意力集中在他们认为更有可能获胜的其他选区。

曾为奥巴马总统在佛罗里达州的成功竞选提供策略指导的资深民主党策略师史蒂夫·沙尔称，民主党的策略目光短浅。他表示，如果今年11月不加大对佛罗里达州的投入，民主党在2028年总统大选中将更难在该州竞争，而且在2030年人口普查预计将重塑该党获得270张选举人票的路径之后，代价可能会更大。

“我们必须拿下其他州，而这些州都在南部，”沙尔说。“我们在佛罗里达州取得的成功比在阳光地带其他任何地方都多。”

“这就是为什么本轮周期出现复苏迹象如此重要的原因，”他补充道。

八年前，民主党从佛罗里达州撤退似乎是不可想象的。

该党在2018年的州长和参议员选举中均告失利，但差距微乎其微。尽管耗资数千万美元，最终却仍以失败告终，这无疑是一次沉重的打击。然而，民主党人誓言重整旗鼓。

然而，损失却不断加剧。四年后，德桑蒂斯以19个百分点的优势赢得连任，这场压倒性胜利标志着佛罗里达州从历来摇摆不定的战场转变为共和党的堡垒。到了2024年总统大选，民主党全国委员会几乎完全放弃了佛罗里达州，特朗普最终以13个百分点的优势赢得了该州。

然而，特朗普重返华盛顿，让佛罗里达州的民主党人重新考虑该州究竟有多么遥不可及。

迈阿密在去年12月选出了一位民主党籍市长，这是该市三十年来首次出现民主党市长。今年8月，民主党在萨拉索塔县教育委员会赢得了几个席位，将保守派团体“自由妈妈”（Mom's for Liberty）的联合创始人之一赶下了台。此外，民主党还在一些以往倾向于共和党的立法席位补选中获胜，其中包括包含海湖庄园（Mar-a-Lago）的州众议院选区。

影响全国中期选举的因素同样也出现在佛罗里达州：一位不受欢迎的共和党总统和民众对生活成本持续不断的焦虑。与此同时，拉美裔选民正显露出疏远特朗普的迹象，这在拉美裔选民占相当大的比例的佛罗里达州，可能产生深远的影响。此外，佛罗里达州长期动荡的财产保险市场也加剧了选民的经济不满，并给负责应对这场危机的共和党人带来了更多阻力。

数据中心已成为另一个争议焦点。唐纳德曾是数据中心扩张的积极倡导者，但在初选期间因这一问题遭到强烈反对后，如今却为拒绝数据中心入驻的地方政府辩护。

佛罗里达州一位共和党筹款人告诉CNN，共和党人目前还没有恐慌，但他们确实感到紧张。唐纳德在8月份的共和党初选中未能获得超过50%的选票，尽管他得到了特朗普的明确支持，但这并没有缓解共和党人的担忧。德桑蒂斯直到初选结束后才公开支持唐纳德，这也无济于事。而且，这位即将卸任的州长最近几周也没有采取任何措施来支持这位希望接替他的共和党候选人。

特朗普最近也更加关注这场共和党人原本认为稳操胜券的选战。上个月，他在达拉斯举行的中期选举大会上安排了唐纳德·特朗普的演讲环节，而特朗普称这些演讲机会通常只留给“选情胶着”的候选人。白宫周四派副总统万斯前往佛罗里达州中部为共和党人助选，特朗普也宣布了与唐纳德·特朗普一同竞选的计划。

唐纳兹表示，他欢迎特朗普访问佛罗里达州，并驳斥了此举反映共和党对选情担忧的说法。

“总统一直积极参与政治活动，”唐纳兹在与奥卡卢萨县的共和党人交谈后告诉CNN。奥卡卢萨县是佛罗里达狭长地带几个他8月份未能拿下的县之一。“他绝不是那种袖手旁观、只投放广告、坐等事态发展的人。他喜欢积极参与。我们非常感谢总统选择来到佛罗里达。”

唐纳德表示，他目前的民调支持率落后于两年前的特朗普和四年前的德桑蒂斯，是因为他的知名度不高。近几周来，他积极在全州各地开展竞选活动，以提高知名度，并试图让选民相信他了解他们对住房负担能力的担忧，尽管特朗普一直将这些担忧斥为民主党人对其经济政绩的政治攻击。

“关键在于团结我们党，同时继续关注影响所有佛罗里达州居民的切身利益问题，”唐纳兹说。

一些共和党人仍然不确定唐纳德能否维系住当年支持德桑蒂斯和特朗普的联盟。唐纳德的党内初选对手之一詹姆斯·菲什巴克继续在社交媒体和公开场合批评这位共和党候选人。

“问题在于（唐纳兹）能否团结共和党人，”这位共和党筹款人说道，他要求匿名以便畅所欲言地谈论本党候选人。“如果说有哪位候选人能够争取到这些选民，那就是乔利。”

蒂娜·罗素/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

乔利曾代表坦帕湾地区担任国会议员，是一名共和党人，直到2016年失去席位。之后，他成为有线电视新闻的常客，并经常批评特朗普。多年来，他一直在考虑以第三方候选人的身份重返政坛。2025年4月，他登记成为民主党人，并宣布竞选州长。

这是佛罗里达州民主党人以前走过的路。

前共和党州长查理·克里斯特转投民主党，并于2014年竞选连任失败。2022年，民主党再次提名他，但最终以压倒性劣势败给了德桑蒂斯。在这两次竞选之间，克里斯特在2016年的众议院选举中击败了乔利。

民主党人希望乔利的背景不仅能吸引温和派选民，还能吸引那些对特朗普感到失望的共和党人——在共和党选民比民主党选民多出160万的佛罗里达州，乔利要想赢得大选，就必须争取到相当一部分共和党选民的支持。与此同时，乔利的竞选团队正倚重尼克松，这位非裔人士多年来一直在杰克逊维尔从事组织工作，希望他能动员该州这一关键地区的新民主党选民或那些在近期选举中没有投票的选民参与投票。

唐纳德及其盟友抓住乔利的政治转变大做文章，称他投机取巧、虚伪做作，是克里斯特的翻版。佛罗里达州共和党主席埃文·鲍尔称乔利为“特穆·查理”，意指他的参选是克里斯特2022年竞选的山寨版。

乔利对这些比较不以为意，并坚称选民是被他的务实精神所吸引。

“人们见证了我过去十年的历程，”乔利说。“我认为政治问题不在于人们会改变，而在于人们不愿意改变。而改变正是我们竞选优势的一部分。”

摩根表示，将佛罗里达州与克里斯特进行比较只会让那些被蛇咬伤的捐助者更难相信，这一次佛罗里达州的情况确实有所不同。

“他们已经听过太多次（佛罗里达州是摇摆州）的说法了，问题就变成了，‘他们是不是又在装疯卖傻了？’”摩根说道，他对民主党的失望让他暗示可能会成立第三党。

上个月底，乔利猛烈抨击自己的政党，指责他们没有为他的竞选投入足够的资源，暗示如果他竞选失败，他们也要承担部分责任。

但几天后，当他从科勒尔盖布尔斯一家牛排馆的捐赠者会议出来，和妻子劳拉一起坐进一辆黑色SUV时，乔利听起来精神振奋多了。当天早上，他收到了一张100万美元的支票。

“我认为现在人们开始陆续来了，”他说。“而且我乐观地认为，我们会看到更多的人进来。”

他仍然面临着艰巨的挑战。截至9月中旬，乔利的政治委员会收到了18笔六位数或以上的捐款。而唐纳德的委员会则报告收到了300多笔捐款。

乔利表示，他有足够的资金在选举日之前通过电视宣传他的竞选信息。但他没有足够的资金专门针对黑人选民、争取不满的共和党人，或者持续攻击唐纳德家族成员。

“我担心他会在不受任何监督的情况下逍遥法外，”乔利说。“但我们只能控制我们能控制的事情。”

然而，乔利却错失了直接审视唐纳德的最佳机会：与他辩论。他说他不会参加任何辩论，因为“让两位候选人在台上互相叫喊、互相攻击，只会进一步分裂我们州和我们的政治。”这一决定令一些民主党人感到困惑，也让唐纳德阵营震惊不已。

不过，周五，乔利终于在广播中回应了唐纳德的一项指控。他的新广告驳斥了乔利支持“飓风税”的说法，并称唐纳德是“骗子”。

在北劳德代尔的活动上，菲利普担心这还不够。

“我一直在关注，”他说。“我认为他需要加把劲。”

CNN的David Wright和Sarah Ferris对本报道亦有贡献。