A growing number of House Republicans privately believe they won’t win the House

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Four weeks to Election Day, a growing number of House Republicans privately fear their chances of holding onto the majority are vanishing and have begun focusing on how to limit the size of a potential Democratic wave.

Inside the House GOP, Republicans have watched with alarm as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have sunk in their own internal polling — including on traditionally red turf — over the last two weeks, according to more than a dozen people familiar with the discussions.

Now, the House GOP is entering triage mode. Republicans are discussing pulling money from once-competitive races they see as too difficult to win, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks in Iowa, Rep. Tom Keane in New Jersey, and an open seat in Nebraska, according to three people familiar with the talks.

But the GOP does have a huge cash advantage and not all Republicans are pessimistic. Speaker Mike Johnson is “absolutely still convinced” that he can hang onto the House and is not taking any seats “off his board,” according to a political aide. Johnson just returned from New Jersey and is planning a rally with Miller-Meeks in Iowa next week, according to his team.

The House GOP’s campaign arm, too, strenuously denies that the majority is lost.

The rising anxiety among Republicans though reflects a grim national environment that has triggered alarm bells up and down the ballot, with Senate Republicans suddenly forced on defense in red seats like Kansas – with control of both chambers of Congress up for grabs. Trump, too, is on a nationwide campaign swing, with stops in a more competitive part of Ohio, as well as deep red territory like Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama.

“There’s a lot of close races, and it’s hard to make a prediction,” retiring GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse said of his party’s chances this week, but acknowledged, “Affordability is a big deal. People see the gas prices every single day.”

While Newhouse said his party has worked to address cost of living issues, he noted, “There’s just a lot of things making it tough right now for rural America – which I can speak to specifically – but for Americans all over the country.”

Many Republicans acknowledge to CNN that the souring national environment – fueled by soaring diesel prices, stubborn inflation and hardening opposition to the Iran war – are largely out of their control this late in the race. They say their strategy is now focused on how to limit Democrats to the slimmest majority possible – in a bid to make governing all but impossible for a potential House speaker Hakeem Jeffries next year.

Johnson’s historically narrow majority – the slimmest since before World War II – has been a major headache for GOP leaders , with Johnson unable to wield control of the floor on numerous occasions. Republicans want Jeffries to face the same problem.

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Several people said their goal is to keep Jeffries’ margin to fewer than 10 seats. If that happens, one GOP strategist summarized: “What the f**k are you going to get done over there?”

Few Republicans believe it will be a total wipeout for their party, where Democrats win more than 30 seats. And some believe there is still a path to keeping their narrow majority, especially if gas prices drop significantly in the next four weeks. Party leaders are particularly confident about two incumbents in purple seats: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick in Pennsylvania and Mike Lawler in New York, both in seats Kamala Harris won in 2024.

But there is growing anxiety from GOP members and aides about protecting parts of the country that haven’t elected Democrats to the House in decades – seats Trump won by double digits that are suddenly in play with incumbents who rarely face competitive general elections.

As of early October, Republicans are still planning to use a massive cash advantage to support their strongest incumbents, while turning up the heat on their top offensive targets, like Rep. Marcy Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District, Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez in Washington’s 3rd – and drowning Democrats in spending.

The GOP’s huge cavalry of super PACs, meanwhile, helps build a firewall around their reddest turf to avert disaster, with Trump-linked groups spending in seats once considered a reach for Democrats, but are now in play, like Colorado’s 5th District, Kentucky’s 6th district and Montana’s 1st district.

“The environment is bad but Democrats still have to win on GOP terrain,” one GOP operative said.

If House Republicans are going to pull off an upset in November, they say it would come down to the party’s massive cash advantage and its aggressive gerrymandering push.

Republicans are outspending Democrats in every one of the 10 most expensive House races on advertising from now until Election Day, according to data from AdImpact. That includes multi-million-dollar advantages in Democratic-held seats like Rep. Don Davis in North Carolina’s 1st District and an open seat in Maine’s 2nd District.

Much of the GOP’s spending is concentrated in newly redrawn seats in Texas and Florida, the fates of which are still highly uncertain, especially for incumbents like GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz in Texas. But if even a handful of those seats swing towards Republicans, it could make up for losses elsewhere.

“At the end of the day, redistricting could be the lifesaver either way – either minimizing the losses or the reason we potentially hold onto the majority,” one GOP leadership aide told CNN.

Then there are the handful of swing seats where Republicans feel more upbeat because of Democratic clashes during the primaries, which left their nominees more vulnerable. That includes California’s 22nd District, Michigan’s 7th District and that open seat in Maine – where progressives beat out establishment-preferred centrists.

Even in a challenging midterm environment, Republicans are turning to issues that they feel give them an advantage with voters – with taxes, immigration, and law enforcement figuring prominently in their campaign ads.

Tax cuts on tips, overtime and Social Security delivered by the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” were the fulfillment of a key 2024 campaign promise, and that’s been a point of emphasis. Republicans have also hammered Democrats for opposing the legislation.

“Zach Nunn voted for the largest middle class tax cut ever,” says an ad from the GOP incumbent in Iowa’s competitive 3rd district.

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An analysis of AdImpact data found that about one-third of GOP ads in House races in September focused on tax policy, making it the top issue tracked by the firm.

Immigration, which ranked fourth, has been another key argument for Republicans. “Stelson wants you to pay for criminal illegal immigrants’ healthcare,” says an ad from the House GOP’s main super PAC, “Congressional Leadership Fund,” targeting the Democrat in Pennsylvania’s 10th district.

GOP advertisers also produced dozens of ads touting their support for law enforcement and accusing Democrats of being soft on crime. Several begin with grisly accounts of local crimes, juxtaposed with rhetoric from Democrats calling for criminal justice reform. “Attention all criminals, do we have some good news for you: Christina Hines, the liberal Ann Arbor prosecutor, is running for Congress,” says one ad airing in the competitive race for Michigan’s 10th district.

Other specific issues have also animated these key races, including Republicans’ sustained focus on transgender policies, an issue they’ve used to attack Democrats since it proved effective in the 2024 campaign. As a result, Democrats have increasingly taken to the airwaves to rebut the criticism, such as Kaptur in Ohio’s 9th District.

Republicans say the Democrats’ quick response to the transgender politics attacks show that it’s an effective issue – and believe it’s been making a dent in internal polling.

“Here’s the truth: I voted with Republicans to keep transgender ideology out of our schools because parents know what’s best for their kids, and boys should not play in girls’ sports,” Kaptur says in one ad.

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距离选举日还有四周，越来越多的众议院共和党人私下担心他们保住多数席位的机会正在消失，并开始关注如何限制可能出现的民主党浪潮的规模。

据十几位知情人士透露，在过去两周里，众议院共和党内部民调显示，唐纳德·特朗普总统的支持率持续下滑，甚至在传统上支持共和党的地区也出现了下滑，这令共和党人感到担忧。

现在，众议院共和党正进入紧急应对模式。据三位知情人士透露，共和党人正在讨论从一些他们认为胜算渺茫的、曾经竞争激烈的选区撤回资金，其中包括爱荷华州的众议员玛丽安内特·米勒-米克斯、新泽西州的众议员汤姆·基恩以及内布拉斯加州的一个空缺席位。

但共和党确实拥有巨大的资金优势，而且并非所有共和党人都持悲观态度。据一位政治助手透露，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊“仍然坚信”自己能够保住众议院的控制权，并且“不会撤换任何席位”。约翰逊的团队表示，他刚刚从新泽西州返回，并计划下周与米勒-米克斯在爱荷华州举行竞选集会。

众议院共和党竞选机构也极力否认失去多数席位。

共和党人日益增长的焦虑情绪反映了严峻的全国形势，这场危机已在各级选举中敲响警钟，参议院共和党人突然被迫在堪萨斯州等传统共和党选区陷入被动——国会两院的控制权都悬而未决。特朗普也在全国范围内展开竞选活动，不仅造访了俄亥俄州竞争更为激烈的地区，还前往了德克萨斯州、俄克拉荷马州和阿拉巴马州等传统共和党票仓。

“有很多选情胶着的选区，很难做出预测，”即将卸任的共和党众议员丹·纽豪斯在谈到本周共和党的胜算时说道，但他承认，“经济承受能力是一个重要问题。人们每天都能看到汽油价格。”

纽豪斯表示，他的政党一直在努力解决生活成本问题，但他指出，“目前有很多因素让美国农村地区的生活变得艰难——我可以具体谈谈这方面的情况——但对全国各地的美国人来说也是如此。”

许多共和党人向CNN承认，在竞选后期，不断恶化的全国政治环境——由飙升的柴油价格、持续的通货膨胀以及对伊朗战争日益强硬的反对所加剧——在很大程度上已超出他们的掌控。他们表示，目前的策略重点在于如何尽可能地限制民主党的多数席位，以期让明年可能当选众议院议长的哈基姆·杰弗里斯几乎无法执政。

约翰逊的多数席位优势极其微弱——是二战前以来最微弱的——这令共和党领导人十分头疼，因为他多次无法掌控议会。共和党人希望杰弗里斯也面临同样的问题。

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一些人表示，他们的目标是将杰弗里斯的领先优势控制在10个席位以内。如果这种情况发生，一位共和党策略师总结道：“你们在那边还能干什么？”

很少有共和党人认为共和党会遭遇全败，因为民主党在共和党内赢得了超过30个席位。一些人认为，如果未来四周汽油价格大幅下降，共和党仍有可能保住微弱的多数席位。党内领导人对两位摇摆选区的现任议员尤其有信心：宾夕法尼亚州的布莱恩·菲茨帕特里克和纽约州的迈克·劳勒，这两个选区都是卡玛拉·哈里斯在2024年赢得的。

但共和党成员和助手们越来越担心如何保护那些几十年来从未选举民主党人进入众议院的地区——特朗普曾以两位数的优势赢得的席位，如今却突然面临挑战，因为现任议员很少面临激烈的普选。

截至 10 月初，共和党人仍计划利用巨额资金优势支持他们最强大的现任议员，同时加大对他们的主要攻击目标的攻势，例如俄亥俄州第 9 选区的众议员 Marcy Kaptur、华盛顿州第 3 选区的众议员 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez，并让民主党人疲于奔命。

与此同时，共和党庞大的超级政治行动委员会（Super PAC）队伍正在帮助他们在其最保守的地盘周围建立一道防火墙，以避免灾难。与特朗普有关联的团体在曾经被认为是民主党难以拿下的选区，但现在却成为民主党争夺的目标的选区投入资金，例如科罗拉多州第五选区、肯塔基州第六选区和蒙大拿州第一选区。

一位共和党人士表示：“虽然形势严峻，但民主党人仍然需要在共和党的传统票仓上赢得胜利。”

他们表示，如果众议院共和党人想在 11 月的选举中爆冷获胜，关键在于该党巨大的资金优势和积极的选区划分策略。

根据广告影响网站AdImpact的数据，在众议院十场最昂贵的竞选中，共和党人在广告支出方面都超过了民主党人，从现在到选举日都将持续投入竞选资金。这其中包括在民主党把持的席位上，例如北卡罗来纳州第一选区众议员唐·戴维斯的席位，以及缅因州第二选区的空缺席位，共和党人在这方面拥有数百万美元的优势。

共和党的大部分竞选支出都集中在德克萨斯州和佛罗里达州新近重新划分的选区，这些选区的命运仍然充满变数，尤其是对于像德克萨斯州共和党众议员莫妮卡·德拉克鲁兹这样的现任议员而言。但如果其中哪怕只有几个席位倒向共和党，也足以弥补在其他地区的损失。

一位共和党领导层助手告诉 CNN：“归根结底，重新划分选区可能成为救命稻草——要么最大限度地减少损失，要么成为我们保住多数席位的原因。”

此外，还有一些摇摆选区，由于民主党在初选中的冲突导致其候选人处境更加危险，共和党人对这些选区更有信心。这些选区包括加利福尼亚州第22选区、密歇根州第7选区以及缅因州的空缺席位——在缅因州，进步派击败了建制派青睐的中间派。

即使在充满挑战的中期选举环境下，共和党人也开始关注他们认为能为选民带来优势的议题——税收、移民和执法问题在他们的竞选广告中占据了显著位置。

《一项全面而美好的法案》通过削减小费、加班费和社会保障金，兑现了2024年竞选的一项关键承诺，这也是共和党一直以来强调的重点。共和党人还猛烈抨击民主党人反对这项法案。

“扎克·纳恩投票支持了有史以来规模最大的中产阶级减税法案，”爱荷华州竞争激烈的第三选区共和党现任议员在一则广告中写道。

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AdImpact 的数据分析发现，9 月份共和党在众议院竞选中投放的广告中，约有三分之一集中关注税收政策，使其成为该公司追踪的首要议题。

移民问题位列第四，一直是共和党人的另一个关键论点。“斯特尔森想让你们为犯罪的非法移民的医疗保健买单，”众议院共和党的主要超级政治行动委员会“国会领导基金”的一则广告如此说道，该广告的目标是宾夕法尼亚州第十选区的民主党候选人。

共和党广告商还制作了数十则广告，标榜他们对执法部门的支持，并指责民主党对犯罪行为软弱。其中一些广告以当地骇人听闻的犯罪事件开篇，并与民主党呼吁刑事司法改革的言论形成鲜明对比。在竞争激烈的密歇根州第十选区，一则广告这样说道：“各位罪犯注意了，我们有个好消息要告诉你们：安娜堡的自由派检察官克里斯蒂娜·海因斯正在竞选国会议员。”

其他一些具体议题也影响了这些关键选情，例如共和党持续关注跨性别政策，自2024年大选以来，他们一直利用这一议题攻击民主党。因此，民主党人越来越多地利用电视和广播等媒体平台反驳这些批评，例如俄亥俄州第九选区的卡普图尔。

共和党人表示，民主党人对跨性别政治攻击的迅速反应表明这是一个有效的议题——他们相信这已经对内部民调产生了影响。

“事实是：我和共和党人一起投票，阻止跨性别意识形态进入我们的学校，因为父母最了解自己的孩子，男孩不应该参加女孩的运动，”卡普图尔在一则广告中说道。