‘Trend reached us’: Nationalists gain ground in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Results raise the prospect of a new conservative alliance and further political polarisation, analysts say.

Darijana Filipovic, candidate of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) for the Bosnian presidency, casts her ballot at a polling station in Stolac, Bosnia and Herzegovina, October 4, 2026 [Amel Emric/Reuters]

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s general election did not bring about many surprises in voter trends, but some developments could change the country’s political atmosphere, analysts have told Al Jazeera.

Most voters on Sunday moved further along ethnic lines, turning away from the idea of a civic society that gained momentum in the previous election when the centre-right Bosniak Party of Democratic Action (SDA) did not participate in the state government.

list 1 of 4 Bosnia’s elections explained

list 2 of 4 Dodik declared Bosnia ‘dead’. Irrelevant rhetoric or serious threat?

list 3 of 4 Dodik urges Serb turnout against ‘Sarajevo crooks’ in Bosnia election

list 4 of 4 Bosnian Serb nationalist claims party victory in Bosnia elections

This trend has long been a fixture in the Bosnian entity of Republika Srpska, where Milorad Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) once again swept aside its competition in Sunday’s elections.

Voters in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina elected a candidate of the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), Darijana Filipovic, to the state presidency; for eight years that seat had been held by Zeljko Komsic of the Democratic Front, a civic-oriented party.

Sacir Filandra, a professor of political science at the University of Sarajevo, said the results were in line with a broader pattern – the strengthening of conservative forces in an uncertain European environment marked by “rising walls” and fear.

“We are witnessing the strengthening of conservative views and the revival or consolidation of political right-wing forces as part of wider European trends,” Filandra told Al Jazeera. “In these times of crisis and transition, that trend has also reached us, which is why nationalist and conservative parties have gained greater prominence. The basis of this voter choice is insecurity, anxiety, uncertainty and, to some extent, fear, as well as global developments in Europe.”

The clearer picture of what comes next will emerge only after parties negotiate coalitions and form governments.

“In our society, political parties reflect longstanding divisions within society,” Filandra said. “The situation is highly conservative, status quo prevails and politics has been reduced to a redistribution of power. It was not realistic to expect encouraging breakthroughs in terms of political reconciliation”, he added.

Changes in the presidency

During the years Komsic held the seat, the nationalist Croat leadership headed by Dragan Covic complained that Croats were being outvoted by Bosniaks, who helped Komsic to win the seat twice in a row.

Under Bosnia’s electoral system, Croat and Bosniak members of the state presidency are elected in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, with every citizen, regardless of nationality, entitled to vote for any of the candidates. Over the past eight years, many Bosniaks have cast their ballots for Komsic, who was running for the Croat seat.

It could be argued that Filipovic’s victory is the most significant shift.

The results mean that the only member of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s tripartite presidency representing a declared multi-ethnic political orientation will be Bosniak Denis Becirovic, of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its partners, who won a second term in the state presidency.

However, with Filipovic and Zeljka Cvijanovic, the candidate of Dodik’s hardline Serb nationalist SNSD, on the presidency, the national interests of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s constituent peoples are likely to play a much greater role than they have over the past eight years.

The elections for the state and entity parliaments, as well as cantonal assemblies, also saw the SDA perform – it was the leading party in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina in terms of the number of votes won, alongside traditionally strong performances by HDZ and SNSD. HDZ secured a convincing victory among Croat voters, while Dodik’s party won the largest number of votes in both the entity and state parliamentary elections.

‘A relaxation of Croat-Bosniak relations’

Over the past eight years, HDZ BiH leader Dragan Covic has warned of the “endangerment of Croats”, fuelled by Komsic’s victories over HDZ candidates in elections for the state presidency.

These votes could usher in an end to the pattern that Covic described, with the election of the Croat member of the Presidency.

Filipovic defeated Komsic’s preferred candidate, Slaven Kovacevic.

Covic publicly “thanked Bosniaks” for the outcome.

The question now is how this change will affect the political environment in Bosnia.

“Part of the public in Bosnia and Herzegovina is not unhappy with the outcome and sees the change as an opportunity to ease Croat-Bosniak relations,” historian and columnist Dragan Markovina told Al Jazeera. “I do not believe anything fundamental will change, but at least the atmosphere between political parties … could become less tense.”

Another striking feature of the election was the low turnout. About 40 percent took to the polls, some 10 percent fewer than four years ago.

Some interpret that as growing apathy.

Srecko Latal, an independent analyst, believes new technologies have also played a role, eliminating allegedly fraudulent ballots.

‘Worries’ for Bosnia’s future

Markovina believes the election results point clearly towards a possible coalition and the emergence of a new conservative axis between SDA, SNSD and HDZ, a scenario that evokes Bosnia’s political past.

The dominance of the three conservative parties in post-war Bosnia has been associated with obstruction, political deadlock and ethnonationalist narratives that have hindered progressive processes.

Amid declining support for civic or multi-ethnic parties, the political balance is changing.

“It would be fair to say that a coalition of SDA, SNSD and HDZ is likely to emerge. Much of post-war Bosnia’s history has been spent with these parties in coalitions, and nothing has improved, nor has any fundamental problem been resolved,” said Markovina, expressing little optimism about the future.

“Bosnia is moving backwards,” Markovina believes. “We are not the only ones who have nationalists. There are more and more of them around us (in Europe), and that is what worries me most when it comes to Bosnia’s future.”

分析人士表示，选举结果增加了出现新的保守派联盟和进一步加剧政治极化的可能性。

2026年10月4日，克罗地亚民主联盟（HDZ）波斯尼亚总统候选人达里亚娜·菲利波维奇在波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那斯托拉茨的一个投票站投票。[Amel Emric/路透社]

分析人士告诉半岛电视台，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那的大选在选民趋势方面并没有带来太多意外，但一些事态发展可能会改变该国的政治氛围。

周日，大多数选民进一步沿着种族界限投票，背离了公民社会的理念。公民社会的理念在上届选举中获得了发展势头，当时中右翼的波斯尼亚克民主行动党（SDA）没有参与州政府。

波斯尼亚选举详解（共 4 项，第 1 项）

（共4条，此为第2条）多迪克宣称波斯尼亚“已死”。这是无关紧要的言论，还是严重的威胁？

名单3/4：多迪克敦促塞尔维亚民众在波斯尼亚选举中投票反对“萨拉热窝骗子”。

列表 4/4：波斯尼亚塞族民族主义政党声称在波斯尼亚选举中获胜

这种趋势在波斯尼亚塞族共和国一直很普遍，米洛拉德·多迪克的独立社会民主联盟（SNSD）在周日的选举中再次横扫对手。

波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那联邦的选民选举波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那克罗地亚民主联盟（HDZ BiH）的候选人达里亚娜·菲利波维奇担任国家主席；此前八年，该职位一直由公民导向政党民主阵线的泽利科·科姆希奇担任。

萨拉热窝大学政治学教授萨西尔·菲兰德拉表示，这一结果与更广泛的趋势相符——在充满“筑起高墙”和恐惧的不确定的欧洲环境中，保守势力正在加强。

菲兰德拉告诉半岛电视台：“我们目睹了保守主义观点的加强以及右翼政治力量的复兴或巩固，这是更广泛的欧洲趋势的一部分。在当前的危机和转型时期，这一趋势也波及到了我们，这就是为什么民族主义和保守主义政党日益凸显的原因。选民做出这种选择的基础是不安全感、焦虑、不确定性，以及在某种程度上的恐惧，还有欧洲的全球局势发展。”

只有各政党协商组建联盟并组建政府之后，接下来的发展走向才会更加明朗。

菲兰德拉说：“在我们的社会中，政党反映了社会长期存在的分裂。现状高度保守，维持现状的局面依然存在，政治沦为权力的重新分配。指望在政治和解方面取得令人鼓舞的突破是不现实的。”

总统更迭

在科姆希奇担任该职位的那些年里，以德拉甘·乔维奇为首的克罗地亚民族主义领导层抱怨说，克罗地亚人在投票中被波斯尼亚人压制，而波斯尼亚人帮助科姆希奇连续两次赢得该职位。

在波斯尼亚的选举制度下，波黑联邦选举产生克罗地亚族和波斯尼亚族国家主席团成员，所有公民，无论国籍，都有权投票给任何候选人。过去八年中，许多波斯尼亚族选民投票支持科姆希奇，他当时竞选的是克罗地亚族席位。

可以说，菲利波维奇的胜利是影响最大的转变。

结果意味着，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那三主席团中唯一一位代表公开的多民族政治倾向的成员将是波斯尼亚族人丹尼斯·贝西罗维奇，他来自社会民主党（SDP）及其盟友，赢得了国家主席团的第二个任期。

然而，随着菲利波维奇和多迪克的强硬派塞尔维亚民族主义政党塞尔维亚独立社会民主党的候选人泽利卡·茨维亚诺维奇当选总统，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那各组成民族的民族利益可能会比过去八年发挥更大的作用。

在波黑联邦议会、实体议会和州议会的选举中，民主行动党（SDA）也表现出色——就得票数而言，它是波黑联邦领先的政党，克罗地亚民主联盟（HDZ）和波黑独立社会民主党（SNSD）也保持了传统优势。克罗地亚民主联盟在克罗地亚族选民中取得了压倒性胜利，而多迪克领导的民主行动党在实体议会和州议会选举中均赢得了最多的选票。

“克罗地亚族与波斯尼亚族关系缓和”

过去八年来，克罗地亚民主联盟波黑分部领导人德拉甘·乔维奇一直警告说，由于科姆希奇在国家总统选举中战胜克罗地亚民主联盟候选人，克罗地亚人正面临“危险”。

这些投票可能会终结科维奇所描述的模式，克罗地亚籍主席团成员将会当选。

菲利波维奇击败了科姆西奇属意的候选人斯拉文·科瓦切维奇。

科维奇公开“感谢波斯尼亚人”促成了这一结果。

现在的问题是，这一变化将如何影响波斯尼亚的政治环境。

“波黑部分民众对这一结果并不感到不满，他们认为这是一个缓和克罗地亚族和波斯尼亚族关系的机会，”历史学家兼专栏作家德拉甘·马尔科维纳告诉半岛电视台。“我不认为会有什么根本性的改变，但至少各政党之间的气氛……可能会有所缓和。”

此次选举的另一个显著特点是投票率低。只有约40%的人参加了投票，比四年前减少了约10%。

有些人将其解读为日益增长的冷漠。

独立分析师斯雷科·拉塔尔认为，新技术也发挥了作用，消除了据称存在欺诈行为的选票。

对波斯尼亚未来的“担忧”

马尔科维纳认为，选举结果清楚地表明，SDA、SNSD 和 HDZ 之间可能出现新的保守主义联盟，这种情况让人想起波斯尼亚的政治历史。

战后波斯尼亚三大保守党的统治地位与阻挠、政治僵局和民族主义叙事有关，这些都阻碍了进步进程。

随着公民政党或多元族裔政党的支持率下降，政治格局正在发生变化。

“可以肯定地说，民主行动党、独立国家社会民主党和克罗地亚民主联盟很可能会组成联合政府。战后波斯尼亚的大部分历史时期都是这些政党组成联合政府，但情况没有任何改善，也没有任何根本问题得到解决，”马尔科维纳说道，他对未来并不乐观。

“波斯尼亚正在倒退，”马尔科维纳认为。“我们不是唯一有民族主义者的国家。我们周围（欧洲）的民族主义者越来越多，这才是最令我担忧波斯尼亚未来的所在。”