JSCCIB Raises 2026 Growth and Export Forecasts

Thailand’s leading private-sector committee projects stronger economic growth and exports this year than it anticipated in June–August, despite mounting risks from flooding, higher oil prices and rising borrowing costs.

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) said its September–October forecast puts 2026 GDP growth at 2.1–2.5%, up from its earlier estimate of 1.6–2.0%. It expects exports to expand 12–16%, compared with the previous projection of 8–10%, while its inflation forecast remains unchanged at 2.5–3.0%.

The improved outlook comes as Thailand prepares to host the IMF–World Bank Group Annual Meetings on Oct. 12–18. The event is expected to attract more than 15,000 leaders, policymakers and executives, providing an opportunity to strengthen investor confidence and connect Thai businesses with global markets, the committee said.

However, the JSCCIB warned that natural disasters were becoming a structural risk to the economy and called for urgent government action on flood preparedness and recovery.

Current flooding is affecting households, small and medium-sized businesses, agriculture, tourism and manufacturing, particularly automotive production and supply chains in central and eastern Thailand. Property losses have yet to be quantified, while disruptions are adding to debt burdens and undermining investor confidence.

The committee said the government has spent an average of 50–60 billion baht annually on disaster relief. It urged investment in faster local early-warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure and comprehensive improvements to water storage, drainage and flood protection.

It also called for urban planning that reflects flood risks and the development of disaster insurance mechanisms to limit economic losses and maintain production.

The JSCCIB plans to write to the prime minister seeking accelerated action and private-sector representation on the National Water Resources Committee and three related subcommittees. It will establish a task force to assess flood impacts and propose preparedness and recovery measures.

The group also urged authorities to resolve congestion at Suvarnabhumi Airport, where flooding has compounded flight delays, cancellations and passenger and baggage backlogs.

Air cargo accounts for approximately 2.42 trillion baht, or around one-third of Thailand’s total export value, the committee said. Service disruptions could damage the country’s image as it welcomes delegates to the annual meetings and enters the year-end peak tourism season.

External risks remain significant. The JSCCIB said Brent crude prices had risen to $102 a barrel from $95 in September, even as Middle Eastern supplies returned close to pre-conflict levels.

It also cited US 30-year Treasury yields reaching 5%, reflecting concerns over US public finances and increased fundraising by major cloud and technology companies. Rising global bond yields are pushing up private-sector borrowing costs and could put downward pressure on the baht.

Looking further ahead, the committee said public- and private-sector priorities were aligned with the 14th National Economic and Social Development Plan, which targets annual economic growth of at least 3% and growth of 5.5% in targeted industries.

The JSCCIB said it would support efforts to remove immediate business obstacles, accelerate adaptation to new technologies and standards, and invest in future industries, skills and infrastructure.

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尽管面临洪水、油价上涨和借贷成本上升等风险，泰国领先的私营部门委员会预测，今年经济增长和出口将比6月至8月的预期更为强劲。

韩国工商银行联合常设委员会（JSCCIB）表示，其9月至10月的预测显示，2026年韩国国内生产总值（GDP）增速预计为2.1%至2.5%，高于此前预测的1.6%至2.0%。该委员会预计出口增速将达到12%至16%，高于此前预测的8%至10%，而通胀率预测维持在2.5%至3.0%不变。

泰国经济前景改善之际，正值泰国准备于10月12日至18日主办国际货币基金组织-世界银行集团年会。委员会表示，此次年会预计将吸引超过15000名领导人、政策制定者和企业高管，这将为增强投资者信心、促进泰国企业与全球市场接轨提供契机。

然而，日本社会保障和工业联合会（JSCCIB）警告说，自然灾害正在成为经济的结构性风险，并呼吁政府采取紧急行动，做好防洪准备和灾后恢复工作。

当前洪灾影响了泰国中部和东部地区的居民、中小企业、农业、旅游业和制造业，尤其是汽车生产和供应链。财产损失尚待量化，而洪灾造成的混乱加剧了债务负担，并削弱了投资者信心。

委员会表示，政府每年平均花费500亿至600亿泰铢用于灾害救助。委员会敦促加大对更快捷的本地预警系统、气候适应型基础设施以及水资源储存、排水和防洪设施的全面改进的投资。

报告还呼吁制定反映洪水风险的城市规划，并建立灾害保险机制，以减少经济损失并维持生产。

JSCCIB计划致函总理，要求加快行动，并争取私营部门代表参与国家水资源委员会及其三个相关小组委员会。该组织还将成立一个工作组，评估洪水影响，并提出防灾减灾措施。

该组织还敦促当局解决素万那普机场的拥堵问题，洪水加剧了航班延误、取消以及乘客和行李积压的情况。

该委员会表示，航空货运额约占泰国出口总额的2.42万亿泰铢，约占泰国出口总额的三分之一。服务中断可能会损害泰国的国际形象，因为此时正值泰国迎接与会代表参加年会，并进入年末旅游旺季。

外部风险依然显著。日本原油期货交易所（JSCCIB）表示，尽管中东原油供应已恢复至接近冲突前水平，但布伦特原油价格仍从9月份的每桶95美元上涨至102美元。

报告还指出，美国30年期国债收益率已达5%，反映出市场对美国公共财政的担忧，以及大型云计算和科技公司加大融资力度。全球债券收益率上升推高了私营部门的借贷成本，可能对泰铢构成下行压力。

展望未来，委员会表示，公共和私营部门的优先事项与第十四个国家经济和社会发展计划相一致，该计划的目标是每年经济增长率至少达到3%，重点行业增长率达到5.5%。

日本工商会表示，将支持消除当前商业障碍、加快适应新技术和新标准、投资未来产业、技能和基础设施的各项努力。

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