Kansas’ 94-year streak is unlike anything else in American politics

Democrats are dreaming of a revolution in Kansas in November, trying to believe in polling that shows a tight race in the Senate contest there between the Democrat, Rev. Adam Hamilton, and the Republican incumbent, Sen. Roger Marshall.

It would indeed be a watershed moment if Hamilton takes the seat: No Democrat has won a Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, not quite a century but a very, very long time.

In fact, since Kansas became a state in 1861, only three Democrats have represented it in the Senate. It’s a remarkable statistic since the two parties have evolved so much during that time.

Related: Read a Q and A with a Kansas-based political expert from CNN’s What Matters newsletter about why Kansas has stayed Republican at the Senate level for so long and why Kansans feel targeted by some of Trump’s policies this year.

While American politics seem locked in place; 30 of the 50 states have been represented by a senator from both parties during this century. And while the states that have been represented by both parties most recently track closely with the swing states that decide elections, there are a few exceptions, like Montana and Alabama.

No Republican has been elected to represent the islands since 1970. That Republican, Hiram Fong, was one of Hawaii’s two first senators, elected when Hawaii became a state in 1959. No Democrat has been elected to represent Wyoming or Utah since that same year.

The longest streak east of the Mississippi River is in New Jersey, where no Republican has been elected to the US Senate since Clifford Case was elected in 1972, capping a long career on Capitol Hill. A Republican senator, Jeffrey Chiesa, was briefly appointed to serve in 2013. That was the result of the state having a Republican governor, Chris Christie, at the time.

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A Kansas voter would have to be well over 100 years old to have voted for the state’s last Democratic senator, but the current governor is a Democrat.

In New Hampshire, the state is represented by two Democratic senators. The last Republican elected was Kelly Ayotte in 2010. She’s currently the state’s governor. And Republicans hope that another former senator, John Sununu, can break the trend and reclaim a Senate seat this year. When he served as senator, the state had two Republican senators.

Far fewer states are sending a split delegation — both a Republican and a Democratic senator — than ever before in US history. Since the nationwide election of senators began with the 1914 election after the ratification of the 17th amendment, there have generally been at least 10 and frequently more than 20 split delegations, according to a 2021 analysis by Pew .

Currently there are only four: Vermont, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — none of which has a Senate race this year — and Maine, where Republican Sen. Susan Collins is among the most endangered incumbents. If she loses to Democrat Troy Jackson, Maine will join the wave of states bringing their senators in line with their status as blue or red for presidential purposes. And Collins is one of the few true moderates of either party left in the chamber.

The other senator from Maine, Angus King, is an independent, but like Sen. Bernie Sanders in Vermont, he sides with Democrats in procedural matters, making him a Democrat for purposes of determining which party controls the Senate.

The last time Vermont elected a Republican, Sen. Jim Jeffords in 2000, he ended up switching parties when Republicans angered him. There’s conjecture now that Pennsylvania’s Democratic Sen. John Fetterman might soon do the inverse, but he has insisted that he will remain a Democrat.

There’s Pennsylvania precedent for party-switching. Sen. Arlen Specter went from R to D in 2009.

The last Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. He resigned to be in President Bill Clinton’s Cabinet. 1988, coincidentally, is the last year California elected a Republican. It does not feel close — or not as close as Texas — to electing someone from the out-of-power party, but things are changing all the time.

Both Dakotas and Montana were represented by two Democrats within the last 25 years. Now all three are represented by two Republicans, although this year in Montana and South Dakota it is independents, not even Democrats, who are mounting the biggest challenge to Republicans.

The independent who seems to have the best chance of winning at the moment is in Nebraska, where Dan Osborn is challenging Sen. Pete Ricketts. A Democrat last won in Nebraska in 2006.

There are a lot of reasons that running as an independent is tricky in American politics, especially at the state or national level. Osborn’s success might not turn into a Senate seat, but it is a clear message that there are states where party brands are so badly damaged that shedding them could be the best path to unseating an entrenched in-party power. But it’s also true that as the parties change and shift, tectonic moves mean their time in power is ultimately limited.

民主党人梦想着11月在堪萨斯州掀起一场革命，他们试图相信民调显示，该州参议院的竞选形势胶着，民主党候选人亚当·汉密尔顿牧师和共和党现任参议员罗杰·马歇尔之间的竞争非常激烈。

如果汉密尔顿赢得这个席位，那将是一个具有里程碑意义的时刻：自 1932 年以来，堪萨斯州还没有民主党人赢得过参议院席位，虽然不到一个世纪，但也已经是很长一段时间了。

事实上，自堪萨斯州1861年建州以来，只有三位民主党人代表该州进入参议院。考虑到两党在此期间发生了如此巨大的变化，这是一个令人惊讶的统计数据。

相关内容：阅读 CNN《要事聚焦》新闻简报中对一位堪萨斯州政治专家的问答，了解为什么堪萨斯州长期以来在参议院一直由共和党把持，以及为什么堪萨斯州人感觉今年受到了特朗普某些政策的针对。

尽管美国政治格局看似已成定局，但本世纪以来，50个州中有30个州都曾由两党参议员代表。虽然这些近期由两党都曾代表的州与决定选举结果的摇摆州密切相关，但也存在一些例外，例如蒙大拿州和阿拉巴马州。

自 1970 年以来，没有共和党人当选为夏威夷群岛的代表。那位共和党人海勒姆·方是夏威夷最早的两名参议员之一，于 1959 年夏威夷成为美国的一个州时当选。自那以后，也没有民主党人当选为怀俄明州或犹他州的代表。

密西西比河以东最长的共和党断层出现在新泽西州，自1972年克利福德·凯斯当选参议员，结束了其在国会山的漫长职业生涯以来，该州再未出现过共和党人当选美国参议员的情况。2013年，杰弗里·基耶萨曾短暂被任命为参议员，这得益于当时新泽西州的州长克里斯·克里斯蒂也是共和党人。

参议院的控制权悬而未决。请分析各党派赢得参议院的最佳途径。

堪萨斯州的选民必须超过 100 岁才能投票给该州最后一位民主党参议员，但现任州长是民主党人。

新罕布什尔州目前由两位民主党参议员代表。上一位当选的共和党参议员是2010年的凯莉·阿约特，她目前是该州州长。共和党人希望另一位前参议员约翰·苏努努能够打破这一局面，在今年重返参议院。在他担任参议员期间，该州曾有两位共和党参议员。

派出共和党和民主党参议员组成的分裂代表团的州数量远少于美国历史上的任何时期。皮尤研究中心2021年的一项分析显示，自1914年第十七修正案批准后开始全国选举参议员以来，通常至少有10个，而且经常超过20个出现分裂代表团的情况。

目前只剩下四个州：佛蒙特州、宾夕法尼亚州和威斯康星州——这三个州今年都没有参议院选举——以及缅因州，共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯是目前最危险的现任议员之一。如果她败给民主党候选人特洛伊·杰克逊，缅因州将加入其他州的行列，根据总统选举的党派倾向，调整其参议员的党派。而柯林斯是参议院中为数不多的真正温和派之一，无论党派如何。

缅因州的另一位参议员安格斯·金是独立人士，但与佛蒙特州的参议员伯尼·桑德斯一样，他在程序性问题上与民主党人站在一起，因此在决定哪个党派控制参议院时，他被视为民主党人。

佛蒙特州上一次选出共和党参议员吉姆·杰福兹是在2000年，但后来他因为共和党人的言论激怒而转投共和党。现在有人猜测宾夕法尼亚州的民主党参议员约翰·费特曼可能很快也会做出相反的选择，但他坚称自己将继续留在民主党。

宾夕法尼亚州有党派转换的先例。参议员阿伦·斯佩克特在2009年从共和党转投民主党。

德克萨斯州上一次选出民主党参议员是1988年的劳埃德·本特森。他辞职加入比尔·克林顿总统的内阁。巧合的是，1988年也是加利福尼亚州最后一次选出共和党人。虽然感觉上，从在野党手中选出一位参议员并不像在德克萨斯州那样接近，但情况瞬息万变。

过去25年里，南北达科他州和蒙大拿州都曾由两名民主党议员代表。如今，这三个州都由两名共和党议员代表。不过，今年在蒙大拿州和南达科他州，对共和党构成最大挑战的并非民主党人，而是独立选民。

目前看来最有希望获胜的独立候选人来自内布拉斯加州，丹·奥斯本正在挑战参议员皮特·里基茨。民主党上次在内布拉斯加州获胜还是在2006年。

在美国政坛，以独立候选人身份参选有很多棘手之处，尤其是在州级或国家级层面。奥斯本的成功或许无法让他赢得参议院席位，但这清楚地表明，在某些州，政党品牌受损严重，脱离政党反而可能是推翻根深蒂固的党内权力的最佳途径。但不可否认的是，随着政党格局的变迁和变革，其执政时间终究有限。