Italy lines up fallback plan for freeing €12 billion defense spending

ROME — Italy is ready to use an EU-devised accounting trick to help boost its defense budget by €12 billion, or $14 billion, as it tries to meet tough new NATO spending targets.

The plan devised in Brussels last year allows EU member states to exempt defense spending when they calculate annual deficit spending, allowing them to raise defense budgets without breaking EU deficit rules.

The EU normally requires member states to keep their budget deficit below 3% of GDP or face infraction procedures.

An Italian government source told Defense News the so-called National Escape Clause (NEC), if used, could result in Italy adding €12 billion to its defense budget over three years starting from 2026.

Rome’s readiness to use the EU rule was signaled in a Ministry of Finance budget document issued this month, which stated it could be triggered if low-cost EU loans to boost defense spending - dubbed the SAFE program - were not enough to get Italy up to NATO requirement that members spend 5% of GDP on defense and security by 2035.

“The decision on whether to activate the NEC is postponed until after the completion of the SAFE program, when its actual need will be assessed,” the document stated.

Italy has already applied to the EU for €14.9 billion in SAFE loans. The document stated that Rome will give the EU a list by Nov. 30 of what defense products it planned to spend the loans on.

It said the list would focus on “joint programs with other member states of third countries interested in developing defense strategies in collaboration with the European Union.”

The document added the European Commission would issued a response to the request by Dec. 31.

Italy spent €29.18 billion on defense in 2024, equaling 1.54% of GDP, and has said it will reach 2% this year. Government sources have told Defense News that the gap will be made up by reclassifying parts of the Italian coast guard as military units, but no formal announcement has yet been made, and a proper defense budget document breaking down spending for 2025 has yet to be published.

Looking ahead to 2026, the finance ministry document says a further “gradual” rise in spending will see Italy budgeting 2.5 percent of GDP by 2028.

The document warns that hiking budgets too quickly would prompt a “rush to buy” which would result in the market hiking prices.

“Based on a realistic projection, spending in relation to GDP would rise by 0.15 percentage points in 2016 and again in 2017 then by 0.2 percent points in 2028,” the document states.

Planners would first use the SAFE loans to achieve that, then decide on whether to use the National Escape Clause.

The permission to use the NEC by the the EU was part of its March 2025 ReArm scheme to push member states to increase military readiness in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“The EU’s fiscal rules limit how much member states’ governments can spend. That’s why the EU is allowing additional budgetary flexibility within the fiscal framework to ensure that rising defense expenditure does not jeopardize fiscal sustainability or trigger penalties normally associated with breaching EU budgetary limits,” the EU has said.

“The flexibility under the NEC for defense expenditure would be available for four years, starting from 2025, with an annual excess through 2028 that will not exceed 1.5% of GDP,” it has said.

Italy has previously said it did not want to use the NEC option as long as its annual deficit was already over 3%, meaning it was facing an infraction procedure. But it now predicts it will drop to 2.8% next year. The document contains one paragraph hinting that Italy may not yet need to achieve the 5% spending demanded by NATO.

Its logic is that the 5% target has been established to ensure countries reach specific military capabilities. If Italy can achieve those capabilities through “rationalization strategies and optimizing spending, it could yet be possible to deliver the capabilities assigned to each country with a smaller outlay.”

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——意大利准备利用欧盟制定的会计技巧，帮助其国防预算增加 120 亿欧元（约合 140 亿美元），以达到北约新的严格支出目标。

去年在布鲁塞尔制定的这项计划允许欧盟成员国在计算年度赤字支出时豁免国防开支，从而使它们能够在不违反欧盟赤字规则的情况下增加国防预算。

欧盟通常要求成员国将预算赤字控制在GDP的3%以下，否则将面临违规处罚。

一位意大利政府消息人士告诉《防务新闻》，如果使用所谓的“国家豁免条款”（NEC），意大利可能会在 2026 年开始的三年内，在其国防预算中增加 120 亿欧元。

本月发布的一份财政部预算文件表明，罗马已准备好使用欧盟规则。该文件指出，如果欧盟提供的低成本贷款（用于增加国防开支，被称为“安全援助计划”）不足以使意大利达到北约成员国到 2035 年将国内生产总值 (GDP) 的 5% 用于国防和安全的要求，则可以启动该规则。

文件指出：“是否启动NEC的决定将推迟到SAFE计划完成后，届时将评估其实际必要性。”

意大利已向欧盟申请149亿欧元的SAFE贷款。文件指出，罗马将于11月30日前向欧盟提交一份清单，列明计划将贷款用于哪些国防产品。

声明称，该清单将重点关注“与欧盟其他成员国或有兴趣与欧盟合作制定国防战略的第三国开展的联合项目”。

该文件还补充说，欧盟委员会将于12月31日前对该请求作出回应。

意大利2024年的国防开支为291.8亿欧元，相当于GDP的1.54%，并表示今年将达到2%。据《防务新闻》报道，政府消息人士透露，将把部分意大利海岸警卫队重新划分为军事单位以弥补预算缺口，但尚未正式宣布，2025年国防预算的详细文件也尚未公布。

展望 2026 年，财政部文件称，支出将进一步“逐步”增长，到 2028 年，意大利的预算支出将占 GDP 的 2.5%。

该文件警告说，预算增加过快会引发“抢购潮”，从而导致市场推高价格。

该文件指出：“根据现实的预测，2016 年支出占 GDP 的比例将上升 0.15 个百分点，2017 年将再次上升 0.15 个百分点，2028 年将上升 0.2 个百分点。”

规划者首先会利用 SAFE 贷款来实现这一目标，然后再决定是否使用国家豁免条款。

欧盟允许使用NEC是其2025年3月“重新武装”计划的一部分，旨在推动成员国提高军事战备水平，以应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰。

欧盟表示：“欧盟的财政规则限制了成员国政府的支出额度。因此，欧盟允许在财政框架内拥有更大的预算灵活性，以确保不断增长的国防开支不会危及财政可持续性，也不会引发通常与违反欧盟预算限制相关的处罚。”

“根据《国家经济合同》，国防开支的灵活性将从 2025 年开始，持续四年，到 2028 年，每年的超支额不会超过国内生产总值的 1.5%。” 声明中写道。

意大利此前曾表示，只要其年度赤字超过3%，面临违规程序，就不愿启用“非经济共同体”（NEC）选项。但现在，意大利预测其赤字明年将降至2.8%。该文件中有一段暗示，意大利可能暂时无需达到北约要求的5%的财政支出水平。

其逻辑在于，设定5%的目标是为了确保各国达到特定的军事能力。如果意大利能够通过“合理化战略和优化支出”来实现这些能力，那么或许可以用更少的支出为每个国家提供分配的能力。

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。