The (very red) pattern of Trump’s 2026 campaign rallies

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A new Washington Post-ABC News poll over the weekend featured a telling stat.

Other recent polls have generally shown voters prefer Democrats over Republicans for Congress by close to 10 points on the all-important “generic ballot.”

But when President Donald Trump is invoked — i.e. choosing between a Democratic-controlled Congress that could act as a check on Trump, versus a GOP-controlled Congress that could pass his agenda — that gap balloons. Registered voters preferred the blue side by 19 points , 58%-39%, in the Post-ABC News poll

It’s clear from those numbers why Republicans in swing areas would be reluctant to campaign with Trump — and why he’s hitting such red territory.

With the president’s midterm travels now in full swing, a number of patterns have emerged: 1) He’s campaigning overwhelmingly in red states that voted for him by double digits in 2024, and 2) when he does campaign in more competitive areas, it’s generally for candidates in red states who are struggling — and seem to need to roll the dice on Trump driving up turnout among a dejected GOP base .

There are exceptions to both, and Trump’s travel schedule is evolving. But that’s about the shape of it.

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Vice President JD Vance has traveled to many of the same places as Trump — sometimes going to more politically challenging areas before the president does.

It’s certainly a far cry from when Trump said during the Republican midterm convention last month that he would travel to all 35 of the biggest “swings” in the country. NPR calculates he’s been to less than one-third of them .

The first pattern is unmistakable. Trump’s decision to use his limited time before the election to travel to dark-red states like Oklahoma, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky raised plenty of eyebrows

But it’s not just those states. Since the GOP’s midterm convention, the nearly 20 states that Trump has visited or is planning to visit this week voted for him by 14 points, on average.

That list includes as many states that voted for him by about 30 points (the four states named above) as presidential swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina).

Including New York — the lone state Trump lost in 2024 that he’s visited recently — Trump has traveled to or is planning to travel to only five states that didn’t vote for him by double digits.

That doesn’t mean that every Republican in key races has avoided campaigning with Trump.

But the ones who have appeared with him generally seem as though they could use a boost. Those in better shape and in swing-to-blue-leaning states haven’t welcomed him or have been scarcer when Trump comes around, including skipping his rallies.

Thus far, the two bona-fide presidential swing states where Trump has rallied with the Senate hopeful are Georgia and North Carolina. But in both cases, the polls and the two parties’ ad spending suggest those seats are likely lost to the GOP.

The other key GOP Senate candidates who have rallied with Trump or will rally with him in the coming days either come from states he won by at least 16 points (Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts, South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham and Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall), or come from double-digit Trump states but have trailed in more quality polls than they’ve led (Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Ohio Sen. Jon Husted and Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan).

Polls in those states are sometimes within the margin of error and have no clear leader, but the Republicans have trailed in some of the other polls.

There is no sign yet of Trump campaigning for Senate candidates in blue-leaning states like Maine, Minnesota and New Hampshire. He travels to Iowa and Michigan this week, but we don’t yet know who will attend.

The story is similar in governor’s races.

Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo and Georgia GOP nominee Rick Jackson have both campaigned with Trump in competitive, marquee races. Trump will also go to Florida this week to stump for Rep. Byron Donalds in a red state. (Donalds recently made headlines for scrubbing his website of Trump mentions .)

But the other gubernatorial candidates to appear with Trump are Republicans who have sometimes looked more like underdogs — in Alaska, Arizona and Ohio. And there is no sign yet of Trump campaigning with hopefuls in Maine, New Hampshire, Oregon and Wisconsin.

And when Trump visited Texas to campaign with Paxton earlier this month, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott — who has polled better than Paxton — very notably didn’t appear.

Absences have been a trend too. Sometimes when Trump shows up, the GOP candidates just … don’t.

That was true not only of Abbott, but also a bunch of New York GOP officials including vulnerable Rep. Mike Lawler when Trump visited that state, a pair of key House candidates in Arizona last week, and another GOP House candidate in Kentucky (who, like Donalds, scrubbed his website of Trump mentions) on Saturday.

And when Vance visited Iowa last month, GOP Senate nominee Rep. Ashley Hinson didn’t attend — and Vance barely mentioned the Senate race .

A big question for this week is who shows up when Trump visits Iowa on Thursday and Michigan on Sunday.

In Michigan, former Rep. Mike Rogers has gone further than most top GOP Senate candidates to distance himself from Trump, including recently on Trump’s trade war with Canada . The president’s visit will take place on the Canada border in Port Huron, which could make for some difficult optics for Rogers.

In Iowa, Hinson has also sought distance from Trump on issues including the Iran war, importing foreign beef and, most recently, importing Russian diesel fuel . And as noted, she skipped the Vance event.

But she also comes from a redder state, and she has suggested she’d welcome Trump to Iowa — including when he put her on the spot during an Oval Office event in late September.

That could be a dilemma that awaits other Republicans. What happens if they’d prefer Trump not come, but he does anyway? He’s made clear he doesn’t like Republicans giving him the cold shoulder , nor does he appreciate the narrative that he’s a liability.

But that new Post/ABC News poll number speaks volumes. By showing his face in crucial states and making himself and his agenda the issue, Trump often appears to be doing his party no favors.

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周末，《华盛顿邮报》和美国广播公司新闻联合发布的一项最新民意调查显示了一项耐人寻味的数据。

近期其他民调普遍显示，在至关重要的“普选”中，选民更倾向于民主党候选人而非共和党候选人竞选国会议员，支持率比共和党候选人高出近 10 个百分点。

但一旦涉及到唐纳德·特朗普总统——也就是在能够制衡特朗普的民主党控制的国会和能够通过其议程的共和党控制的国会之间做出选择——这种差距就会急剧扩大。《华盛顿邮报》和美国广播公司新闻频道联合进行的民调显示，登记选民更倾向于民主党一方，支持率高达19个百分点，分别为58%和39%。

从这些数字可以清楚地看出，为什么摇摆地区的共和党人不愿意与特朗普一起竞选——以及为什么他会在如此保守的地区获得支持。

随着总统的中期选举之旅全面展开，出现了一些规律：1）他主要在2024年以两位数优势支持他的红色州进行竞选活动；2）当他在竞争更激烈的地区进行竞选活动时，通常是为那些在红色州陷入困境的候选人助选——这些候选人似乎需要冒险一试，希望特朗普能够带动沮丧的共和党选民的投票率。

当然也有例外情况，特朗普的出行计划也在不断变化。但大致情况就是这样。

通往2026年中期选举的道路现在开始

每周，亚伦·布莱克都会以犀利的分析，拨开政治迷雾，深入剖析可能决定国会控制权的选情、候选人和趋势。订阅《20/26 视野》周刊，了解今年中期选举的最新动态。

副总统 JD Vance 曾到访过许多与特朗普相同的地点——有时甚至比总统更早到达一些政治上更具挑战性的地区。

这与特朗普上个月在共和党中期选举大会上所说的要走遍全国35个最重要的“摇摆州”的说法相去甚远。据美国国家公共电台（NPR）统计，他只去了其中不到三分之一的州。

第一个模式显而易见。特朗普决定利用选前有限的时间前往俄克拉荷马州、阿拉巴马州、田纳西州和肯塔基州等深红州，这一举动引起了许多人的质疑。

但不仅仅是这些州。自共和党中期选举大会以来，特朗普本周已经访问或计划访问的近20个州，平均而言，他的得票率比对手高出14个百分点。

该名单中既包括以大约 30 个百分点的优势投票支持他的州（上述四个州），也包括总统选举的摇摆州（亚利桑那州、佐治亚州、密歇根州和北卡罗来纳州）。

算上纽约——特朗普在 2024 年大选中唯一输掉的州，他最近还去过纽约——特朗普只去过或计划去五个在他得票数上落后两位数的州。

但这并不意味着所有在关键选战中获胜的共和党人都避免与特朗普一起竞选。

但那些与他一同露面的人似乎普遍需要提振士气。而那些处境较好、且身处倾向民主党的摇摆州的人，要么不欢迎他，要么在特朗普出现时很少露面，甚至缺席他的竞选集会。

迄今为止，特朗普与参议员候选人一同助选的两个真正意义上的总统摇摆州是佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州。但无论在哪个州，民调和两党的广告支出都表明，共和党很可能失去这两个席位。

其他与特朗普一起集会或将在未来几天与他一起集会的关键共和党参议院候选人，要么来自他至少以 16 个百分点优势获胜的州（内布拉斯加州参议员皮特·里基茨、南卡罗来纳州参议员达琳·格雷厄姆和堪萨斯州参议员罗杰·马歇尔），要么来自特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州，但在更多高质量民调中落后于领先的州（德克萨斯州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿、俄亥俄州参议员乔恩·赫斯特和阿拉斯加州参议员丹·沙利文）。

这些州的民调结果有时在误差范围内，没有明显的领先者，但共和党在其他一些民调中落后。

目前还没有迹象表明特朗普会在缅因州、明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州等倾向民主党的州为参议院候选人助选。他本周将前往爱荷华州和密歇根州，但我们尚不清楚谁会出席。

州长竞选的情况也类似。

内华达州州长乔·隆巴多和佐治亚州共和党候选人里克·杰克逊都曾在竞争激烈的焦点选战中与特朗普并肩作战。本周，特朗普还将前往佛罗里达州，为该州共和党候选人拜伦·唐纳兹的竞选活动站台。（唐纳兹最近因删除其网站上所有提及特朗普的内容而登上新闻头条。）

但与特朗普一同露面的其他州长候选人都是共和党人，他们在阿拉斯加州、亚利桑那州和俄亥俄州的选情有时看起来更像是弱势一方。目前还没有迹象表明特朗普会与缅因州、新罕布什尔州、俄勒冈州和威斯康星州的候选人一起进行竞选活动。

本月初，特朗普访问德克萨斯州与帕克斯顿一起竞选时，民调支持率高于帕克斯顿的德克萨斯州州长格雷格·阿博特却非常明显地没有露面。

缺席也成了一种趋势。有时候，当特朗普出席时，共和党候选人却……不露面。

不仅阿博特如此，特朗普访问纽约州时，包括处境岌岌可危的众议员迈克·劳勒在内的许多纽约共和党官员也如此；上周亚利桑那州的两名重要众议院候选人也如此；周六，肯塔基州的另一位共和党众议院候选人（和唐纳德一样，他删除了网站上所有提及特朗普的内容）也如此。

上个月，当万斯访问爱荷华州时，共和党参议员候选人众议员阿什利·欣森没有出席——万斯几乎没有提及参议院竞选。

本周的一大问题是，特朗普周四访问爱荷华州和周日访问密歇根州时，谁会到场。

在密歇根州，前众议员迈克·罗杰斯比大多数共和党参议员候选人更积极地与特朗普保持距离，包括最近在特朗普对加拿大发起的贸易战问题上。总统此次访问将在休伦港的加美边境进行，这可能会给罗杰斯带来一些不利的舆论影响。

在爱荷华州，欣森也试图在包括伊朗战争、进口外国牛肉以及最近的进口俄罗斯柴油等问题上与特朗普保持距离。正如前文所述，她缺席了万斯的活动。

但她也来自一个更保守的州，她曾表示欢迎特朗普访问爱荷华州——包括在9月下旬的一次椭圆形办公室活动中，特朗普当面质问她时。

这或许是其他共和党人即将面临的困境。如果他们不希望特朗普来，但他还是来了，该怎么办？他已经明确表示，他不喜欢共和党人冷落他，也不喜欢别人说他是累赘的说法。

但这份最新的《华盛顿邮报》/ABC新闻民调数据意义重大。特朗普通过在关键州露面，并将自己及其政治纲领作为竞选议题，往往对他的政党并无益处。