Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 6, 2026俄罗斯攻势评估,2026年9月6日
President Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to make any meaningful compromises in the peace negotiations process to end the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to make any meaningful compromises in the peace negotiations process to end the war in Ukraine. Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated on September 6 that Putin reasserted his commitment to reach all of Russia’s war aims through military means and emphasized Russia’s commitment to addressing the so-called “root causes” of the war during Putin’s meeting with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner on September 5.[1] Putin outlined his uncompromising demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation as a prerequisite for “peace” negotiations in Ukraine on June 14, 2024. Those demands require Ukrainian withdrawal from the entirety of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, including areas that Russian forces do not currently occupy; the demilitarization and “denazification” of the Ukrainian government and society by which Putin means the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian one; and future Ukrainian neutrality, specifically excluding NATO membership.[2] Ushakov’s statement following Putin’s meeting with Witkoff and Kushner indicates that the Kremlin remains unwilling to make any meaningful compromises to Russia’s maximalist demands.
Putin is doubling down on the fictional battlefield situation that he defines as “reality” and insisting that his misrepresentation of the actual state of the war become the basis for any peace negotiations on Ukraine. Ushakov claimed on September 6 that Putin provided a comprehensive assessment to Witkoff and Kushner of Russian “significant advances” along the frontline — an exaggerated claim that does not match realities on the ground.[3] A person close to the Kremlin stated prior to Witkoff’s and Kushner’s Moscow visit that there would not be a peace agreement until Russian forces seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and noted that Putin is confident that Russian forces could seize the whole of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 — the most recent Kremlin deadline for accomplishing that goal.[4]
The Russian military systematically misinforms Putin about the state of the front line in part due to the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian armed forces that milbloggers refer to as “beautiful reports.”[5] Russian high-ranking military commanders also routinely present exaggerated Russian advances as part of Russia’s systematic cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian forces as making sweeping advances and Ukrainian defenses as collapsing.[6] The lies and distortions of Russian military commanders at many levels are likely leading Putin to harden his perception that Russian forces can achieve his intended objectives in Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and thus that he need not make any compromises in his aims.
Russia is failing to achieve its battlefield objectives in reality, however, and is specifically failing in its priority objective of seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026. Putin has set no fewer than 15 reported deadlines for the seizure of Donetsk Oblast since February 2022, and Russian forces have failed to meet every one.[7] Russian forces will not meet Putin’s new deadline of seizing all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026.[8] Russian forces have been fighting for Kostyantynivka since October 2025 and have not seized it in 11 months.[9] Russian forces have not reached, much less entered or seized, the other Fortress Belt cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Druzhkivka, and will not be able to seize all three within the remaining four months of 2026, considering that they have failed to complete the seizure of even one in nearly a year. Putin’s battlefield fiction remains divorced from the reality of Ukraine’s defensive abilities, Russia’s own degraded offensive capabilities, and the difficult and expansive terrain Russian forces must still fight through to achieve Putin’s strategic goal in the region. Putin’s many deadlines to seize all of Donbas reflect in part his need to provide a significant informational victory to the Russian people. Putin has promised Russians victory in exchange for enduring the burdens of war without bringing Russian society to a full wartime footing.[10]
Russian forces will not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032 at their current rate of advance — if they can seize it at all. The Russian rate of advance across the theater was 2.91 square kilometers per day in August 2026, a slight increase compared to recent months.[11] The average Russian rate of advance for Russian forces’ priority effort in Donetsk Oblast was lower at only 2.36 square kilometers per day in August. Russian forces would take until October 2, 2032, to seize the remaining 19 percent of Donetsk Oblast at this rate — over a year after the next State Duma elections, which will likely be held in September 2031.
ISW is not prepared to assess that Russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast on any timeline, however. Russian forces will have to fight attritional urban battles through the cities of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt before attempting to advance across fields — terrain that Russian forces have historically struggled to advance through. The Russian rate of advance has slowed significantly across the theater since 2025, when Russia’s rate of advance had already begun to slow.[12] Ukraine has proven that it can contest the tactical initiative in several areas of the frontline and hinder Russian logistics in 2026, and Russia has struggled to counter these Ukrainian efforts.[13] Neither the trajectory nor any likely dynamics of the current conflict suggest that Russian forces will be able soon to accelerate their rate of advance dramatically as long as Western support for Ukraine continues at roughly current levels.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Witkoff and Kushner in Kyiv City on September 6 and agreed on fundamental principles for ending the war in Ukraine, including security and economic guarantees for post-war Ukraine. Zelensky reported that he held two bilateral rounds of talks with the US delegation and one round of multilateral talks with the national security advisors of the UK, Germany, and France about how to end the war in Ukraine.[14] Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian and US delegations discussed security and economic guarantees for Ukraine and territorial issues as part of a peace plan and agreed to hold Ukrainian-European-US talks in the near future. Zelensky stated that he also discussed European air defense and energy assistance to Ukraine with US and European partners if the war continues through the upcoming winter, which Zelensky assessed to be the most likely scenario. Zelensky noted that Ukrainian forces have grown stronger on the battlefield, which puts Ukraine in a stronger negotiation position with the US and Russia.[15]
Russia’s September 6 strikes against airports near Kyiv prevented the US delegation from flying to Kyiv City and forced it to travel instead by train.[16] Ukraine and Russia have previously agreed to halt long-range strikes against Kyiv and Moscow cities until the end of the day on September 7 to facilitate the delegation’s travel.[17] No Russian regional officials reported Ukrainian strikes against Russian territories on the night of September 4 to 5 ahead of Witkoff’s and Kushner’s arrival in Moscow.[18] Russian forces hit objects in Bucha Raion and Fastiv, Kyiv Oblast on the night of September 5 to 6 ahead of the US delegation’s arrival to Kyiv City, however.[19] Bucha Raion and Fastiv are 38 and 60 kilometers from central Kyiv, respectively. Russian sources acknowledged that Russian forces continued strikes near Kyiv City despite the three-day ceasefire to which Moscow is only very narrowly adhering.[20]
Witkoff and Kushner reportedly stated that they wanted to return to a trilateral Ukrainian-US-Russian negotiations format following their discussion with the Ukrainian and Russian sides.[21] President Donald Trump will consult with Witkoff and Kushner on their meeting with Putin and Zelensky and will call Putin and Zelensky on September 7, according to a US official.[22] Zelensky stated that the issue of Donbas is the issue of Russia’s entire war of attrition against Ukraine because Putin has made it the focus of his immediate demands.[23]
Putin’s demands transcend Donbas, however, as both his 2024 speech (to which Russian officials constantly allude) and Russia’s military operations demonstrate. Russian forces have been conducting offensive operations across the entire frontline in Ukraine in ways that are unnecessary if their focus is only, or even primarily, on seizing the rest of Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces are conducting significant offensive operations in northern Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts explicitly in an effort to create a “buffer zone” along the international border — one of Putin’s repeated demands.[24] Russian forces are simultaneously conducting offensive operations in Zaporizhia Oblast in order to join the Orikhiv and Hulyaipole directions to advance on Zaporizhzhia City, bypassing south-facing Ukrainian defenses.[25] These offensives are larger and more costly than would be needed simply to fix Ukrainian forces away from the defense of Donbas, and neither do they directly support Russian efforts to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast. They do, however, pursue other explicitly stated Putin objectives, which is why they continue and why Putin is unlikely to halt the fighting even if Russian forces manage to seize all of Donetsk Oblast, which itself remains unlikely.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated Russia’s unwillingness to make any meaningful compromises in the peace negotiations process to end the war in Ukraine.
Putin is doubling down on the fictional battlefield situation that he defines as “reality” and insisting that his misrepresentation of the actual state of the war become the basis for any peace negotiations on Ukraine.
The lies and distortions of Russian military commanders at many levels are likely leading Putin to harden his perception that Russian forces can achieve his intended objectives in Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026 and thus that he need not make any compromises in his aims.
Russia is failing to achieve its battlefield objectives in reality, however, and is specifically failing in its priority objective of seizing the remainder of Donetsk Oblast by the end of 2026.
Russian forces will not seize Donetsk Oblast until 2032 at their current rate of advance — if they can seize it at all.
ISW is not prepared to assess that Russian forces will be able to take the rest of Donetsk Oblast on any timeline, however.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Witkoff and Kushner in Kyiv City on September 6 and agreed on fundamental principles for ending the war in Ukraine, including security and economic guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
Putin’s demands transcend Donbas, however, as both his 2024 speech (to which Russian officials constantly allude) and Russia’s military operations demonstrate.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and the suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) campaign in Rostov Oblast on the night of September 5 to 6. Russian forces launched 108 drones against Ukraine overnight.
Russian forces have achieved tactically-significant advances in the Hulyaipole direction in the past several months.
We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict and the Geneva Conventions and crimes against humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.
Ukrainian Operations in the Russian Federation
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on the night of September 5 to 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 6 that Ukrainian forces struck an oil refinery in Ryazan, Ryazan Oblast (roughly 485 kilometers from the international border), which has a processing capacity of about 17 million tons per year and is one of Russia’s largest oil refineries.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces raised an unspecified attack helicopter in an attempt to prevent the strike but failed to do so. The strike damaged the ELOU AVT-6 and AVT-1 crude oil refining units at the refinery, according to geolocated footage published on September 6.[27] Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the “Izomalk-2-LIN-800” industrial unit at the refinery.[28] Ryazan Oblast Governor Pavel Malkov acknowledged on September 6 that Ukrainian drones caused a fire at the refinery.[29]
Ukrainian forces continued their suppression and destruction of enemy air defenses (SEAD/DEAD) campaign against Rostov Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on September 6 that Ukrainian forces struck the Rostov-on-Don Airfield, causing a fire; a Podlyot radar station; and two Pantsir-S1 air defense systems in Rostov Oblast.[30] Rostov Oblast Governor Yuriy Slyusar and Rostov-on-Don Mayor Alexander Skryabin acknowledged Ukrainian strikes in Rostov Oblast.[31]
Open sources provided updated battlefield damage assessments (BDA) of recent Ukrainian strikes against targets in Rostov Oblast and Sochi, Krasnodar Krai. Ukraine’s August 30 strike against the Millerovo Airfield, Rostov Oblast, damaged two radars, the technical and operational unit (TEC), and an ammunition depot, according to satellite imagery published on September 5.[32] Ukraine’s September 3 strike against Sochi airport, Krasnodar Krai, destroyed Russian Mi-28 and Ka-52 attack helicopters and damaged an Mi-8-type multi-role helicopter, according to geolocated footage published on September 6.[33] Ukraine’s September 4 strike against the Rosneft oil depot in Sochi reportedly destroyed nine oil tanks and struck Russian air defense assets, according to satellite imagery published on September 5.[34]
Russian Supporting Effort: Northern Axis
Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Sumy Oblast on September 5 and 6 but did not advance.[35]
Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast
Russian forces recently conducted an infiltration mission in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position north of Kudiivka (north of Kharkiv City) after what ISW assessed was a Russian infiltration mission, according to geolocated footage published on September 5.[36] A source reporting on the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces (GoF) reported that Kozacha Lopan (north of Kharkiv City) remains contested, with neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces having control over the settlement.[37] The source reported that Ukrainian forces continue counterattacks near Hoptivka and Kudiivka (both north of Kharkiv City), while Russian forces are attempting to consolidate positions south of Starytsya (northeast of Kharkiv City).
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on September 5 and 6 but did not advance.[38]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on September 5 and 6 but did not advance.[39]
Russian forces continue infiltration missions and attempts to consolidate positions in and south of Kupyansk. A Ukrainian officer operating in the Kupyansk direction stated on September 5 that Russian forces crossed the Oskil River and are infiltrating into Kupyansk and Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi (south of Kupyansk) but noted that Ukrainian forces control both settlements.[40] A source reporting on the Russian Western GoF claimed that Russian forces consolidated positions near an area of an industrial production plant in Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi as Ukrainian forces counterattacked toward northern Dvorichna (northeast of Kupyansk).[41]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on September 5 and 6 but did not advance, as Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Korovii Yar and Hlushchenkove (south and southeast of Borova, respectively).[42]
Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian National Guard Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Pivnenko reported on September 6 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian Zhitel electronic warfare (EW) system near Severodonetsk (roughly 38 kilometers from the frontline) from a depth of 55 kilometers.[43]
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction on September 5 and 6 but did not make confirmed advances as Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the area.[44] A Russian milblogger claimed on September 6 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked between Mykolaivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka (east of Slovyansk).[45] A source reporting on the Russian Western GoF claimed that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking near Stavky (northeast of Lyman), from the Drobysheve forest area toward the outskirts of Zarizhne (northwest and northeast of Lyman respectively), and north of Lyman.[46]
Russian forces recently intensified their offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction. A Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile division personnel group chief reported on September 6 that Russian forces intensified their assault in the Slovyansk direction over the past several days following a noticeable decrease.[47]
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area on September 5 and 6 but did not make confirmed advances as Ukrainian forces counterattacked in the area.[48] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger refuted the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) September 5 claim that Russian forces seized Kurtivka (northwest of Kostyantynivka) and stated that there is no objective evidence of Russian presence in Kurtivka.[49]
Russian forces continue attempts to infiltrate into Ukrainian rear positions north and northwest of Kostyatynivka. A Russian milblogger claimed that Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka (northwest of Kostyantynivka) has become a contested gray zone and that Russian forces bypassed Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka from the south and reached Kindrativka (just northwest of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka).[50] The milblogger further claimed that Russian forces advanced from Izhivka and consolidated positions near Kurtivka (both southeast of Druzhkivka) and are continuing advances along the railway from Mykolaivka to Bezimyane (northeast and north of Kostyantynivka respectively).
Kramatorsk City Military Administration Head Oleksandr Honcharenko stated on September 6 that Russian forces struck a bridge near Kramatorsk.[51]
Russian forces recently conducted an infiltration mission in the Dobropillya tactical area. Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in central Dobropillya (the smaller of two settlements named “Dobropillya” southwest of the larger settlement) after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission, according to geolocated footage published on September 6.[52] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces seized Matyasheve (south of Dobropillya) and advanced into western Dobropillya (the smaller of the two settlements).[53]
Russian forces recently conducted an infiltration mission in the Pokrovsk direction. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian position in eastern Serhiivka (northwest of Pokrovsk) after what ISW assesses was a Russian infiltration mission based on geolocated footage published on September 2.[54]
Russian forces appear to be experimenting with different tactics in the Pokrovsk direction, despite the resulting high casualties. A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on September 6 that Russian forces are using a new tactic of sending “opening” small assault groups toward Ukrainian positions and drawing fire to reveal the location of Ukrainian positions and then subsequently heavily striking the area.[55] The brigade noted that Russian forces do not care about manpower losses during these tactics.
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Novopavlivka and Oleksandrivka directions on September 5 and 6 but did not advance.[56]
Russian Supporting Effort: Southern Axis
Ukrainian forces recently advanced or maintained positions in the Hulyaipole direction. Ukrainian forces likely hold positions south of Vozdvyzhivka (northwest of Hulyaipole) and control Lisne, Rivne, Dolynka, and Kopani (all northwest of Hulyaipole), areas where Russian forces had either advanced or claimed to advance, according to geolocated footage published on September 5 and likely captured in mid-August 2026.[57] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets indicated on September 6 that Ukrainian forces likely control the area west of the Vozdvyzhivka-Verkhnya Tersa line (northwest of Hulyaipole).[58]
Russian forces have achieved tactically significant advances in the Hulyaipole direction over the past several months, but the rate of Russian advance remains slow and could slow further. Mashovets reported on September 6 that Russian forces have advanced between seven to eight kilometers and as far as 11 kilometers north and west from Hulyaipole since Spring 2026.[59] Mashovets stated that Russian forces seized Myrne and Luhivske (both southwest of Hulyaipole); reached the southeastern outskirts of Vozdvyzhivka and the Tsvitkove-Krynychne line (east of Verkhnya Tersa); and advanced to within 1.5 kilometers of Hulyaipilske (southwest of Hulyaipole) from the east. Mashovets’ reporting indicates that Russian forces have likely also seized Svyatopetrivka, Staroukrainka, and Zaliznychne (all east to south of the Tsvitkove-Krynychne line), Varvarivka, and Pryluky (both northeast of Tsvitkove). Mashovets reported that Russian forces also infiltrated beyond these advances, including within Vozdvyzhivka, Verkhnya Tersa, and Hirke (west of Hulyaipole); into southern Dobropillya (northwest of Hulyaipole), Hulyaipilske, and Verkhnya Tersa; east of Nechaivka (north of Hulyaipole and south of Oleksandrivka); northwest of Luhivske (southwest of Hulyaipole and southeast of Orikhiv), and near Pishchane (northwest of Nechaivka) and Charivne (southwest of Hulyaipilske); and between Chervona Krynytsya and Yehorivka (both southwest of Hulyaipole and northeast of Orikhiv).
The Russian military’s failure to focus on the Orikhiv drive from the west and inability to sustain offensive operations west of Hulyaipole will likely constrain its rate of advance. Mashovets stated that Russian forces have concentrated enough personnel and assets for a drive on Orikhiv but that the diverging Russian effort northward along the Haichur River is widening the frontline and diluting the force concentration for the Orikhiv effort, limiting its effectiveness.[60] Mashovets noted that the Russian command likely redeployed elements of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division (5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) from the area west of Hulyaipole to support operations north of Hulyaipole, likely referring to the neighboring Oleksandrivka direction where Ukrainian forces have been counterattacking. Mashovets noted that Ukrainian forces are continuing counteroffensive operations in the Oleksandrivka direction — directly into the rear of the Russian forces in the Hulyaipole direction — and that any further advances could hinder that Russian offensive. Mashovets noted that Russian forces have not been able to sustain a consistent rate of advance west from Hulyaipole because these forces need to regroup and rest at times.
Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 5 and 6 but did not make confirmed advances.[61] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced south of Orikhiv, in southern Preobrazhenka (just north of Orikhiv), and in southern and north of Mala Tokmachka (southeast of Orikhiv).[62]
Neither Russian nor Ukrainian sources reported ground activity in the Kherson direction on September 6.
Russian forces continued to employ “human safari” tactics targeting civilians in Kherson Oblast. The Kherson Oblast Police Department reported on September 6 that Russian forces conducted a first-person view (FPV) drone strike against a public transport stop in Molodizhne (just northeast of Kherson City), injuring three civilians.[63]
Russian Air, Missile, and Drone Campaign
Note: The Ukrainian military ceased regularly reporting the numbers of Russian missiles fired and the number of missiles intercepted as of August 11. [64]
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine overnight on September 5 to 6. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 108 Shahed-type strike drones, including jet-powered drones, Gerbera-type strike drones, Parodiya-type decoy drones, and S8000 Banderol loitering munitions from the directions of Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Oryol and Kursk cities; occupied Donetsk City; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[65] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 82 drones and six Banderol loitering munitions, that an unspecified number of air targets struck 11 locations, and that debris fell on seven locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential, industrial, energy, logistics, and border infrastructure in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Khmelnytskyi, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Kyiv oblasts.[66]
Significant Activity in Belarus
Nothing significant to report.
Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.
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https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25-2026/ ; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-24-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-22-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-16-2026/ ; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-15-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-17-2026/; [7] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-2-2026/ ; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-23-2026/ [8] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-30-2026/ [9] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-25-2025/ [10] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/putin-on-track-to-disappoint-multiple/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/hiding-russias-weakness/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_8-23/ https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-22-2026/ https://understandingwar.org/research/cognitive-warfare/putins-internet-crackdown-is-rooted-in-weakness-and-a-need-to-demand-greater-war-sacrifices/ [11] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2026/ [12] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-1-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-1-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-1-2026/ [13] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/ukraines-intermediate-range-strike-campaign-and-new-mechanized-attacks-herald-the-start-of-a-new-phase-of-the-war/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-12-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-20-2026/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-12-2026/ [14] https://www dot president.gov.ua/news/zayava-prezidenta-ukrayini-pid-chas-spilnogo-z-predstavnikam-106269 ; https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/20722 ; [15] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2096683955365855456 [16] https://kyivindependent dot com/us-envoys-witkoff-kushner-arrive-in-ukraine/ ; https://meduza dot io/news/2026/09/06/stiv-uitkoff-i-dzhared-kushner-priehali-v-kiev-eto-ih-pervyy-vizit-v-ukrainu [17] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5-2026/ [18] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5-2026/ [19] https://t.me/dsns_telegram/73849 ; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/1396344-masstabna-pozeza-spalahnula-na-promislovomu-obekti-kiivsini-pisla-ataki-rf/ ; https://t.me/tkachenkotymur/2818 ; https://t.me/kyivoda/56234 [20] https://t.me/dva_majors/98570 ; https://t.me/arx_spn/30949 [21] https://x.com/HromadskeUA/status/2096682625867915525 ; https://x.com/HromadskeUA/status/2096650888060244336 [22] https://kyivindependent dot com/trumps-first-call-after-peace-talks-briefing-will-be-putin-source-says/ ; https://kyivindependent dot com/us-envoys-witkoff-kushner-arrive-in-ukraine/ [23] https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/2096685388555333767 [24] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_17-5/; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_10-7/ [25] https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-29-2025/ [26] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42137 [27] https://t.me/DniproOfficial/8126; https://x.com/GarbuzYe/status/2096550718702235860; https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/2096563629852160153 [28] https://militarnyi dot com/uk/news/drony-atakuvaly-ryazanskyj-npz/ [29] https://t.me/pavelmalkov_official/7134; https://t.me/pavelmalkov_official/7135 [30] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42137 [31] https://meduza dot io/news/2026/09/06/ukrainskie-bespilotniki-atakovali-rostov-na-donu-povrezhdeny-zhilye-doma-postradali-chetyre-cheloveka-v-ryazani-gorit-npz ; https://t.me/tass_agency/394000; https://t.me/tass_agency/394005 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/394034 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/394006 ; https://t.me/tass_agency/394019 [32] https://t.me/DniproOfficial/8121 ; https://militarnyi dot com/uk/news/suputnykovi-znimky-urazhennya-myllerovo/#google_vignette ; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2026/ [33] https://t.me/absolutely_reliable/56 ; https://x.com/UAControlMap/status/2096557538065908053; https://t.me/exilenova_plus/30434 ; https://militarnyi dot com/uk/news/znyshhyly-ka-52-i-my-28-ta-my-8-v-sochi/ [34] https://t.me/absolutely_reliable/48 ; https://militarnyi dot com/uk/news/drony-urazyly-dev-yat-rezervuariv-u-sochi/ [35] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/36729 ; https://t.me/severnnyi/9246 [36] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/12890; https://t.me/jacksons_dairy/13315 [37] https://t.me/severnnyi/9246 [38] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133 ; https://t.me/dva_majors/98596 [39] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133; https://t.me/wargonzo/36729 [40] https://t.me/ButusovPlus/32947 ; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eP4oBNrmiRc [41] https://t.me/grvZapad/19685 [42] https://t.me/grvZapad/19685; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133 [43] https://t.me/Pivnenko_NGU/4746 ; https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1396682-55-kilometriv-u-glibinu-tilu-okupantivukrainski-vijskovi-znisili-rosijskij-kompleks-reb-zitel/; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/06/znyshhyly-zhytyelya-za-55-km-u-tylu-protyvnyka-naczgvardijczi-spalyly-ridkisnyj-vorozhyj-reb/ [44] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/36729 [45] https://t.me/wargonzo/36729 [46] https://t.me/grvZapad/19685 [47] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1396666-na-slovanskomu-napramku-vijsko-rf-aktivizuvalo-sturmi-ale-jogo-ambicii-ne-vidpovidaut-mozlivostam-54-ombr/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TAM-eohLW8 [48] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133; https://t.me/wargonzo/36729 [49] https://t.me/rybar/82919; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-5-2026/ [50] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/74676 [51] https://suspilne dot media/donbas/1396726-armia-rf-zavdala-aviaudaru-po-mostu-u-kramatorsku/ [52] https://t.me/creamy_caprice/12893; https://t.me/Borsuky_503/556 [53] https://t.me/motopatriot78/55759 ; https://t.me/divgen/83721 [54] https://www.instagram.com/reels/Dcvy59uN5hI/; https://t.me/creamy_caprice/12895 [55] https://t.me/rubizh3018/5506 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/06/vorog-nakopychuye-pihotu-na-pokrovskomu-napryamku-ta-vyprobovuye-novu-taktyku/ [56] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133 [57] https://x.com/moklasen/status/2096307326923813265; https://x.com/moklasen/status/2096307331470356929; https://t.me/RtrDonetsk/38198 [58] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3585 [59] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3585 [60] https://t.me/zvizdecmanhustu/3586 [61] https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42131 ; https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/42133 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/36729 [62] https://t.me/motopatriot78/55764 [63] https://t.me/khersonpolice/25184 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/06/vorog-ne-zupynyaye-teror-hersonshhyny-vorog-vdaryv-fpv-dronom-po-zupynczi-gromadskogo-transportu/ [64] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-11/ukraine-stops-reporting-russia-missile-data-as-defenses-struggle?srnd=homepage-americas; https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-11-2026/ [65] https://t.me/kpszsu/76746 [66] https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/31870 ; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/31869 ; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/31867 ; https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/31866 ; https://t.me/AlexsAlexs_G/2056 ; https://suspilne dot media/kharkiv/1396738-litnij-colovik-zaznav-poranen-cerez-vlucanna-rosijskoi-molnii-u-malij-danilivci/ ; https://www.facebook.com/faceprok/posts/pfbid02kH9kP3jecT3DtV6u3JAnMNjYedJyD139XKQU5V5Qn1wuMXegqePophLYXrh94sdSl ; https://suspilne dot media/khmelnytskiy/1396512-semero-travmovanih-ta-poskodzeni-civilni-obekti-naslidki-rosijskoi-ataki-5-veresna-fiksuut-na-hmelniccini/ ; https://suspilne dot media/khmelnytskiy/1396452-vibiti-vikna-u-zitlovomu-budinku-ta-poskodzeni-avtomobili-fotoreportaz-naslidkiv-ataki-na-hmelniccini/ ; https://suspilne dot media/khmelnytskiy/1396540-zemla-zdrignulas-ak-zemletrus-na-hmelniccini-likvidovuut-naslidki-obstrilu-5-veresna/ ; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/73843 ; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/06/vnaslidok-rosijskoyi-ataky-na-hmelnychchyni-postrazhdaly-semero-lyudej/ ; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/73849 ; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/1396344-masstabna-pozeza-spalahnula-na-promislovomu-obekti-kiivsini-pisla-ataki-rf/ ; https://t.me/tkachenkotymur/2818 ; https://t.me/kyivoda/56234 ; https://www.facebook.com/mykoda/posts/pfbid02JLg2JL9VEaWXLysnA6RxotBAws1JC9JFQk6Xt395VY7TejwvXdbktdD5Vho9SxK4l? cft [0]=AZg5r5Wxzt-WAfQ9rUeixQH1tYZgdIcYU9WBhtSKfs6LYkvQhLPX7-7MFW9cmSv3pMEEC_bdCqCsbpy_zqL9vHlSmST58DFE8dqEB3tSGO7Bi_jouCxdIRSHrhznMeGr_oww3Ap8-zVqYLD9aw-Vwpw7w9cal5_7uuQPm8dLRmBby-AJx342_SCa2LM& tn =%2CO%2CP-R ; https://suspilne dot media/mykolaiv/1396600-zaginuv-vodij-poskodzeni-budinki-ta-transport-naslidki-atak-na-mikolaivsinu/ ; https://t.me/poltavskaOVA/34605 ; https://suspilne dot media/poltava/1396626-u-lubenskomu-rajoni-rosijskij-bpla-vluciv-u-teritoriu-privatnogo-pidpriemstva/ ; https://www.facebook.com/izmail.rda/posts/pfbid0pVg3x3VCfRztHuarjdy53hVr1y7gRBVmqVAJx9brZAHCR1kpauSb2XR8ydyN2oJFl? cft [0]=AZh7GbqCqc7io88h3jfNKyhpyPpEImOplePiWKE3aUwIgcD4BWh1MgCrk199I9q85YHQuNLQAyZaBXN-tKBs-rzzPh_6zlE_gJDEBfRhYctGuMFDp7HNvvQnfeUF84ULbRRzFpbeLcfivMD5sncuUmMN90R45Qku& tn =%2CO%2CP-R ; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/1396594-rf-povtorno-atakuvala-punkt-propusku-orlivka-na-odesini/ ; https://t.me/odessakoval/318 ; https://t.me/odesacityofficial/62878
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京重申,俄罗斯不愿在结束乌克兰战争的和平谈判进程中做出任何实质性妥协。俄罗斯总统助理尤里·乌沙科夫9月6日表示,普京在9月5日与美国中东问题特使史蒂夫·威特科夫和美国总统前高级顾问贾里德·库什纳会晤时,重申了俄罗斯致力于通过军事手段实现其所有战争目标,并强调俄罗斯致力于解决所谓的战争“根源”。[1] 普京概述了其毫不妥协的要求,即乌克兰必须完全投降,这是2024年6月14日在乌克兰举行“和平”谈判的先决条件。这些要求包括乌克兰从卢甘斯克、顿涅茨克、扎波罗热和赫尔松州全部撤军,包括俄罗斯军队目前未占领的地区;普京所说的乌克兰政府和社会的非军事化和“去纳粹化”,指的是用亲俄政府取代现任乌克兰政府;以及乌克兰未来的中立,特别是排除加入北约。[2] 乌沙科夫在普京与维特科夫和库什纳会面后发表的声明表明,克里姆林宫仍然不愿意对俄罗斯的极端要求做出任何有意义的妥协。
普京加倍强调他所定义的虚构战场局势,并将其称为“现实”,坚持认为他对战争实际情况的错误描述将成为任何乌克兰和平谈判的基础。乌沙科夫9月6日声称,普京向维特科夫和库什纳提供了关于俄军在前线取得“重大进展”的全面评估——这一夸大其词的说法与实际情况不符。[3] 一位接近克里姆林宫的人士在维特科夫和库什纳访问莫斯科之前表示,除非俄军占领顿涅茨克州的剩余地区,否则不会达成和平协议。该人士还指出,普京自信俄军能够在2026年底前占领整个顿涅茨克州——这是克里姆林宫为实现这一目标设定的最新期限。[4]
俄罗斯军方系统性地向普京谎报前线局势,部分原因是俄罗斯军队内部普遍存在一种撒谎文化,军事博客作者称之为“漂亮的报告”。[5] 俄罗斯高级军事指挥官也经常夸大俄军的进展,这是俄罗斯系统性认知战的一部分,旨在将俄军描绘成势如破竹、乌克兰防线崩溃的形象。[6] 俄罗斯各级军事指挥官的谎言和歪曲很可能使普京更加坚信,俄军能够在2026年底前实现其在顿涅茨克州的既定目标,因此他无需在目标上做出任何妥协。
然而,俄罗斯实际上未能实现其战场目标,尤其是在2026年底前夺取顿涅茨克州剩余领土这一首要目标上更是彻底失败。自2022年2月以来,普京至少设定了15个夺取顿涅茨克州的最后期限,但俄军无一能够达成。[7] 普京提出的在2026年12月31日前夺取整个顿涅茨克州的新期限也无法实现。[8] 自2025年10月以来,俄军一直在为科斯蒂扬尼夫卡作战,但11个月过去了仍未攻占该城。[9] 俄军尚未抵达,更遑论进入或占领“堡垒带”的其他城市——斯拉维扬斯克、克拉马托尔斯克和德鲁日基夫卡,考虑到他们在近一年的时间里甚至连其中一座城市都未能攻占,因此在2026年剩余的四个月内,他们也不可能全部夺取这三座城市。普京的战场构想仍然脱离乌克兰的防御能力、俄罗斯自身进攻能力的削弱,以及俄军为实现其在该地区的战略目标仍需克服的崎岖广袤的地形。普京设定的多次夺取顿巴斯全境的最后期限,部分反映了他需要向俄罗斯民众带来一场重要的信息胜利。普京承诺,俄罗斯人将以承受战争的重担为条件,换取胜利,而无需让俄罗斯社会完全进入战时状态。[10]
按照目前的推进速度,俄军最早也要到2032年才能占领顿涅茨克州——如果他们最终能够占领的话。2026年8月,俄军在整个战区的推进速度为每天2.91平方公里,与近几个月相比略有提升。[11] 俄军在顿涅茨克州的优先推进行动中,8月份的平均推进速度更低,仅为每天2.36平方公里。按照这个速度,俄军要到2032年10月2日才能占领顿涅茨克州剩余的19%的领土——这比下一次国家杜马选举晚了一年多,而下一次国家杜马选举很可能在2031年9月举行。
然而,ISW目前无法评估俄军能否在任何时间表内攻占顿涅茨克州的剩余地区。俄军必须先在乌克兰要塞带的城市中展开消耗战,才能尝试穿越田野——历史上俄军在田野地形上的推进一直举步维艰。自2025年以来,俄军在整个战区的推进速度已显著放缓,而当时俄军的推进速度就已经开始放缓。[12] 乌克兰已证明,它能够在2026年在多个前线地区挑战俄军的战术主动权,并阻碍俄军的后勤补给,而俄军一直难以应对乌克兰的这些努力。[13] 无论是目前的冲突走向还是任何可能的动态,都表明只要西方对乌克兰的支持维持在目前的水平,俄军就不可能很快大幅加快推进速度。
9月6日,乌克兰总统泽连斯基在基辅会见了维特科夫和库什纳,并就结束乌克兰战争的基本原则达成一致,其中包括战后乌克兰的安全和经济保障。泽连斯基报告称,他与美国代表团举行了两轮双边会谈,并与英国、德国和法国的国家安全顾问举行了一轮多边会谈,讨论如何结束乌克兰战争。[14] 泽连斯基表示,乌克兰和美国代表团讨论了作为和平计划一部分的乌克兰安全和经济保障以及领土问题,并同意在近期举行乌克兰-欧洲-美国会谈。泽连斯基还表示,如果战争持续到即将到来的冬季(他认为这是最有可能的情况),他还与美国和欧洲伙伴讨论了欧洲对乌克兰的防空和能源援助问题。泽连斯基指出,乌克兰军队在战场上实力增强,这使乌克兰在与美国和俄罗斯的谈判中处于更有利的地位。[15]
9月6日,俄罗斯对基辅附近机场的空袭导致美国代表团无法飞往基辅,被迫改乘火车。[16] 此前,乌克兰和俄罗斯已同意暂停对基辅和莫斯科的远程空袭,直至9月7日当天结束,以便代表团顺利出行。[17] 9月4日至5日夜间,在维特科夫和库什纳抵达莫斯科之前,没有俄罗斯地方官员报告乌克兰对俄罗斯领土发动空袭。[18] 然而,9月5日至6日夜间,在美方代表团抵达基辅之前,俄罗斯军队袭击了基辅州布恰区和法斯蒂夫的目标。[19] 布恰区和法斯蒂夫分别距离基辅市中心38公里和60公里。俄罗斯方面承认,尽管莫斯科勉强遵守了为期三天的停火协议,但俄罗斯军队仍在基辅附近继续空袭。[20]
据报道,维特科夫和库什纳在与乌克兰和俄罗斯方面进行讨论后表示,他们希望恢复乌克兰、美国和俄罗斯三方谈判模式。[21] 据一位美国官员透露,唐纳德·特朗普总统将就维特科夫和库什纳与普京和泽连斯基的会晤与他们进行磋商,并将于9月7日致电普京和泽连斯基。[22] 泽连斯基表示,顿巴斯问题是俄罗斯对乌克兰发动的整场消耗战的核心问题,因为普京已将其作为其当前诉求的焦点。[23]
然而,普京的要求远不止于顿巴斯地区,这一点从他2024年的演讲(俄罗斯官员不断提及)以及俄罗斯的军事行动中可见一斑。如果俄罗斯军队的目标仅仅是或主要目标是夺取顿涅茨克州的剩余部分,那么他们在乌克兰整个前线开展的进攻行动就显得没有必要。俄罗斯军队在苏梅州北部和哈尔科夫州开展大规模进攻行动,其目的显然是为了在国际边界沿线建立“缓冲区”——这是普京反复提出的要求之一。[24] 与此同时,俄罗斯军队还在扎波罗热州开展进攻行动,以便与奥里希夫和胡利亚伊波列方向的部队会合,从而绕过乌克兰军队朝南的防御阵地,向扎波罗热市推进。[25] 这些进攻行动的规模和成本都远超仅仅为了牵制乌克兰军队、使其无法支援顿巴斯防御所需的规模和成本,而且也并非直接支持俄罗斯夺取顿涅茨克州剩余部分的努力。然而,他们确实在追求普京明确提出的其他目标,这就是为什么他们继续战斗的原因,也是为什么即使俄罗斯军队设法占领整个顿涅茨克州(这本身仍然不太可能)普京也不太可能停止战斗的原因。
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京重申,俄罗斯不愿在结束乌克兰战争的和平谈判进程中做出任何有意义的妥协。
普京加倍坚持他所定义的“现实”——虚构的战场局势,并坚持认为他对战争实际状况的错误描述将成为任何乌克兰和平谈判的基础。
俄罗斯各级军事指挥官的谎言和歪曲很可能使普京更加坚信,俄罗斯军队可以在 2026 年底前在顿涅茨克州实现其既定目标,因此他无需在目标上做出任何妥协。
然而,俄罗斯实际上未能实现其战场目标,尤其是在其首要目标——到 2026 年底占领顿涅茨克州剩余地区——方面更是未能实现。
按照俄罗斯军队目前的推进速度,他们最早也要到 2032 年才能占领顿涅茨克州——如果他们最终能够占领的话。
然而,ISW 并不准备评估俄罗斯军队能否在任何时间表内占领顿涅茨克州的其余部分。
9月6日,乌克兰总统泽连斯基在基辅市会见了维特科夫和库什纳,并就结束乌克兰战争的基本原则达成一致,其中包括战后乌克兰的安全和经济保障。
然而,普京的要求超越了顿巴斯地区,这一点从他 2024 年的演讲(俄罗斯官员不断提及)和俄罗斯的军事行动中可见一斑。
9月5日至6日夜间,乌克兰军队继续对俄罗斯石油基础设施发动远程打击行动,并在罗斯托夫州开展压制和摧毁敌方防空系统(SEAD/DEAD)行动。俄罗斯军队当晚向乌克兰发射了108架无人机。
过去几个月,俄军在胡利亚波列方向取得了具有重要战术意义的进展。
我们不会详细报道俄罗斯的战争罪行,因为西方媒体已对此进行充分报道,而且这些罪行不会直接影响我们正在评估和预测的军事行动。我们将继续评估并报道这些犯罪活动对乌克兰军队和乌克兰民众的影响,特别是对乌克兰城市地区战斗的影响。我们强烈谴责俄罗斯违反武装冲突法和日内瓦公约的行为以及反人类罪行,尽管我们并未在这些报告中详细描述这些罪行。
乌克兰在俄罗斯联邦的行动
9月5日至6日夜间,乌克兰军队继续对俄罗斯石油基础设施发动远程打击。乌克兰总参谋部9月6日报告称,乌克兰军队袭击了位于梁赞州梁赞市(距国际边界约485公里)的一座炼油厂,该炼油厂年加工能力约为1700万吨,是俄罗斯最大的炼油厂之一。[26] 乌克兰总参谋部指出,俄军出动了一架未指明型号的攻击直升机试图阻止此次袭击,但未能成功。根据9月6日公布的定位视频显示,此次袭击损坏了该炼油厂的ELOU AVT-6和AVT-1原油提炼装置。[27] 乌克兰国防媒体Militarnyi报道称,乌克兰军队还袭击了该炼油厂的“Izomalk-2-LIN-800”工业装置。[28] 9月6日,梁赞州州长帕维尔·马尔科夫承认,乌克兰无人机引发了炼油厂的火灾。[29]
乌克兰军队继续对罗斯托夫州实施压制和摧毁敌方防空系统(SEAD/DEAD)行动。乌克兰总参谋部于9月6日报告称,乌克兰军队袭击了顿河畔罗斯托夫机场,造成火灾;摧毁了波德利奥特雷达站和罗斯托夫州的两套“铠甲-S1”防空系统。[30] 罗斯托夫州州长尤里·斯柳萨尔和顿河畔罗斯托夫市市长亚历山大·斯克里亚宾承认了乌克兰对罗斯托夫州的袭击。[31]
公开信息提供了乌克兰近期对罗斯托夫州和克拉斯诺达尔边疆区索契目标进行空袭的最新战场破坏评估(BDA)。根据9月5日公布的卫星图像,乌克兰8月30日对罗斯托夫州米列罗沃机场的空袭摧毁了两部雷达、技术和作战单元(TEC)以及一个弹药库。[32] 根据9月6日公布的地理定位视频,乌克兰9月3日对克拉斯诺达尔边疆区索契机场的空袭摧毁了俄罗斯的米-28和卡-52攻击直升机,并损坏了一架米-8型多用途直升机。[33] 根据9月5日公布的卫星图像,乌克兰9月4日对索契俄罗斯石油公司油库的空袭摧毁了九个油罐,并击中了俄罗斯的防空设施。[34]
俄罗斯的支持行动:北方轴心
9月5日和6日,俄军继续在苏梅州北部发动进攻行动,但并未取得进展。[35]
俄罗斯主要行动:乌克兰东部
俄罗斯下属主要行动#1——哈尔科夫州
俄罗斯军队近期在哈尔科夫州北部进行了一次渗透行动。据ISW于9月5日发布的地理定位视频显示,乌克兰军队在库迪伊夫卡(哈尔科夫市北部)以北袭击了俄军阵地,ISW评估认为这是一次俄军渗透行动。[36] 一位消息人士援引俄罗斯北方部队群(GoF)的消息称,科扎恰洛潘(哈尔科夫市北部)仍处于争夺之中,俄乌双方均未控制该定居点。[37] 该消息人士还称,乌克兰军队继续在霍普蒂夫卡和库迪伊夫卡(均位于哈尔科夫市北部)附近进行反击,而俄军则试图巩固斯塔里察(哈尔科夫市东北部)以南的阵地。
9月5日和6日,俄军继续在韦利基布尔鲁克方向进行有限的进攻行动,但并未取得进展。[38]
俄罗斯下属主要行动#2——奥斯基尔河
9月5日和6日,俄军继续向库皮扬斯克方向发起进攻,但并未取得进展。[39]
俄军继续在库皮扬斯克及其以南地区进行渗透行动,并试图巩固阵地。一名在库皮扬斯克方向活动的乌克兰军官于9月5日表示,俄军已越过奥斯基尔河,正在渗透进入库皮扬斯克和库皮扬斯克-武兹洛维(库皮扬斯克以南),但他同时指出,乌克兰军队控制着这两个定居点。[40] 据俄罗斯西部边境部队的消息来源称,俄军在库皮扬斯克-武兹洛维一家工业生产厂附近巩固了阵地,而乌克兰军队则向库皮扬斯克东北部的德沃里奇纳北部发起反击。[41]
9 月 5 日和 6 日,俄军继续向博罗瓦方向发起进攻,但并未取得进展,因为乌克兰军队在科罗维亚尔和赫卢申科韦(分别位于博罗瓦南部和东南部)附近进行了反击。[42]
乌克兰军队继续对被占领的卢甘斯克州的俄罗斯军事目标进行中程打击。乌克兰国民警卫队司令奥列克桑德·皮夫年科准将于9月6日报告称,乌克兰军队从55公里纵深打击了位于北顿涅茨克附近(距前线约38公里)的俄罗斯“日捷尔”电子战系统。[43]
俄罗斯下属主要行动#3——顿涅茨克州
9月5日和6日,俄军继续在斯拉维扬斯克方向发动进攻,但由于乌克兰军队在该地区进行反击,俄军并未取得确切进展。[44] 9月6日,一位俄罗斯军事博客作者声称,乌克兰军队在尼古拉耶夫卡和赖-奥列克桑德里夫卡(斯拉维扬斯克以东)之间发动了反击。[45] 据俄罗斯西部政府新闻网站报道,乌克兰军队正在斯塔夫基(莱曼东北部)附近、从德罗比舍韦森林地区向扎里日内郊区(分别位于莱曼西北部和东北部)以及莱曼北部发动反击。[46]
俄罗斯军队最近加强了在斯拉维扬斯克方向的进攻行动。乌克兰防空导弹师人事组组长9月6日报告说,在斯拉维扬斯克方向的进攻明显减少之后,俄罗斯军队在过去几天加强了进攻。[47]
9月5日和6日,俄军继续在科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡-德鲁日基夫卡战术区发动进攻,但由于乌克兰军队在该地区进行反击,俄军并未取得确切进展。[48] 一位与克里姆林宫有关联的俄罗斯军事博客作者驳斥了俄罗斯国防部9月5日关于俄军占领库尔蒂夫卡(科斯蒂安蒂尼夫卡西北部)的说法,并表示没有客观证据表明俄军在库尔蒂夫卡存在。[49]
俄军持续试图渗透到科斯蒂亚蒂尼夫卡北部和西北部的乌克兰后方阵地。一位俄罗斯军事博主声称,奥列克西耶沃-德鲁日基夫卡(位于科斯蒂亚蒂尼夫卡西北部)已成为双方争夺的灰色地带,俄军从南部绕过奥列克西耶沃-德鲁日基夫卡,抵达金德拉季夫卡(位于奥列克西耶沃-德鲁日基夫卡西北部)。[50] 该军事博主还声称,俄军从伊日夫卡推进,并在库尔季夫卡附近巩固了阵地(均位于德鲁日基夫卡东南部),并继续沿铁路从尼古拉耶夫卡(位于科斯蒂亚蒂尼夫卡东北部)推进至别济米亚内(位于科斯蒂亚蒂尼夫卡北部)。
克拉马托尔斯克市军事管理局局长奥列克桑德·贡恰连科于9月6日表示,俄罗斯军队袭击了克拉马托尔斯克附近的一座桥梁。[51]
俄罗斯军队近期在多布罗皮利亚战术区进行了一次渗透行动。据ISW评估,乌克兰军队在9月6日发布的地理定位视频显示,在俄罗斯军队发动渗透行动后,袭击了位于多布罗皮利亚中部(位于较大定居点西南方向的两个名为“多布罗皮利亚”的定居点中较小的一个)的俄军阵地。[52] 俄罗斯军事博客作者声称,俄军占领了马蒂亚舍韦(位于多布罗皮利亚南部),并向西推进至多布罗皮利亚(两个定居点中较小的一个)。[53]
俄罗斯军队最近在波克罗夫斯克方向进行了一次渗透行动。乌克兰军队袭击了谢尔盖夫卡东部(波克罗夫斯克西北部)的一个俄罗斯阵地,ISW 根据 9 月 2 日发布的地理定位视频评估,这是一次俄罗斯渗透行动。[54]
尽管伤亡惨重,俄军似乎仍在波克罗夫斯克方向试验不同的战术。9月6日,一支在波克罗夫斯克方向作战的乌克兰旅报告称,俄军正在使用一种新战术,即派遣小型突击队向乌克兰阵地发起“试探”,吸引火力以暴露乌克兰阵地的位置,然后对该区域进行猛烈打击。[55] 该旅指出,俄军在执行这些战术时并不在意人员伤亡。
9月5日和6日,俄军继续在诺沃巴甫利夫卡和奥列克桑德里夫卡方向发动进攻,但并未取得进展。[56]
俄罗斯的支持行动:南方轴心
乌克兰军队近期在胡利亚伊波列方向推进或维持了阵地。根据9月5日发布的、可能拍摄于2026年8月中旬的地理定位视频显示,乌克兰军队可能占据了沃兹德维日夫卡(胡利亚伊波列西北部)以南的阵地,并控制了利斯内、里夫内、多林卡和科帕尼(均位于胡利亚伊波列西北部),而俄罗斯军队此前曾推进或声称推进过这些地区。[57] 乌克兰军事观察员科斯蒂安廷·马绍韦茨于9月6日指出,乌克兰军队可能控制了沃兹德维日夫卡-上特尔萨一线以西(胡利亚伊波列西北部)的地区。[58]
过去几个月,俄军在胡利亚伊波列方向取得了具有重要战术意义的进展,但推进速度依然缓慢,且可能进一步放缓。马绍韦茨9月6日报告称,自2026年春季以来,俄军已向胡利亚伊波列以北和以西推进了7至8公里,最远达11公里。[59] 马绍韦茨指出,俄军占领了米尔内和卢希夫斯克(均位于胡利亚伊波列西南方向);抵达了沃兹德维日夫卡东南郊区和茨维特科韦-克里尼奇涅一线(位于上特尔萨以东);并从东部推进至距离胡利亚伊波列西南方向1.5公里处。马绍韦茨的报告表明,俄军可能还占领了斯维亚托佩特里夫卡、斯塔鲁克赖因卡和扎利兹尼奇内(均位于茨维特科韦-克雷尼奇内一线以东至以南)、瓦尔瓦里夫卡和普里卢基(均位于茨维特科韦东北部)。马绍韦茨报告称,俄军还渗透到这些推进区域之外,包括沃兹德维日夫卡、上特尔萨和希尔克(胡利亚伊波列以西);多布罗皮利亚南部(胡利亚伊波列西北部)、胡利亚伊皮尔斯克和上特尔萨;涅恰伊夫卡以东(胡利亚伊波列以北,奥列克桑德里夫卡以南);卢希夫斯克西北部(胡利亚伊波列西南部,奥里希夫东南部),以及皮什恰内附近(涅恰伊夫卡西北部)和恰里夫内附近(胡利亚伊皮尔斯克西南部)。位于切尔沃纳·克雷尼察和叶霍里夫卡之间(均位于胡利亚伊波列西南,奥里希夫东北)。
俄军未能集中兵力从西面推进至奥里希夫,且无法在胡利亚伊波列以西维持进攻行动,这很可能限制其推进速度。马绍韦茨指出,俄军已集结足够的人员和资源向奥里希夫推进,但俄军沿海丘尔河向北分散的攻势拓宽了战线,分散了奥里希夫方向的兵力,从而限制了其作战效能。[60] 马绍韦茨还指出,俄军指挥部可能已将第127摩托化步兵师(隶属东部军区第5合成集团军)的部分兵力从胡利亚伊波列以西调往北部地区支援作战,这很可能是指乌克兰军队正在进行反击的邻近的奥列克桑德里夫卡方向。马绍韦茨指出,乌克兰军队正在奥列克桑德里夫卡方向——直接深入俄军胡利亚伊波列方向的后方——继续开展反攻行动,任何进一步的推进都可能阻碍俄军的攻势。马绍韦茨还指出,俄军无法从胡利亚伊波列方向持续向西推进,因为这些部队需要不时地进行重整和休整。
9月5日和6日,俄军在扎波罗热州西部继续进行有限的进攻行动,但没有取得确切的进展。[61] 一位俄罗斯军事博主声称,俄军在奥里希夫以南、普列奥布拉任卡南部(奥里希夫以北)以及马拉托克马奇卡南部和北部(奥里希夫东南部)推进。[62]
9月6日,俄罗斯和乌克兰方面均未报告赫尔松方向有地面活动。
俄罗斯军队继续在赫尔松州对平民实施“人肉狩猎”战术。赫尔松州警察局9月6日报告称,俄罗斯军队使用第一人称视角(FPV)无人机袭击了莫洛季日内(赫尔松市东北部)的一个公共交通站点,造成三名平民受伤。[63]
俄罗斯空袭、导弹和无人机行动
注:自 8 月 11 日起,乌克兰军方停止定期报告俄罗斯发射的导弹数量和拦截的导弹数量。[64]
9月5日至6日夜间,俄罗斯军队对乌克兰发动了一系列无人机袭击。乌克兰空军报告称,俄罗斯军队从罗斯托夫州米列罗沃、奥廖尔和库尔斯克市、被占领的顿涅茨克市以及被占领的克里米亚赫瓦尔迪斯克方向,发射了108架“沙赫德”型攻击无人机(包括喷气式无人机)、“格贝拉”型攻击无人机、“帕罗迪亚”型诱饵无人机和S8000“班德罗尔”巡飞弹。[65] 乌克兰空军报告称,乌克兰军队击落了82架无人机和6枚“班德罗尔”巡飞弹,11个地点遭到不明数量的空中目标袭击,另有7个地点落有碎片。乌克兰官员报告称,俄罗斯军队袭击了敖德萨州、第聂伯罗彼得罗夫斯克州、哈尔科夫州、赫梅利尼茨基州、尼古拉耶夫州、波尔塔瓦州和基辅州的居民区、工业区、能源区、物流区和边境基础设施。[66]
白俄罗斯的重大活动
没有什么重大事项需要报告。
注:ISW 不接收任何来源的机密材料,仅使用公开信息,并广泛参考俄罗斯、乌克兰和西方媒体的报道和社交媒体,以及市售卫星图像和其他地理空间数据作为报告的基础。所有参考资料均列于每份更新报告的尾注中。
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https://t.me/dnipropetrovskaODA/31866; https://t.me/AlexsAlexs_G/2056 ; https://suspilne dot media/kharkiv/1396738-litnij-colovik-zaznav-poranen-cerez-vlucanna-rosijskoi-molnii-u-malij-danilivci/; https://www.facebook.com/faceprok/posts/pfbid02kH9kP3jecT3DtV6u3JAnMNjYedJyD139XKQU5V5Qn1wuMXegqePophLYXrh94sdSl; https://suspilne dot media/khmelnytskiy/1396512-semero-travmovanih-ta-poskodzeni-civilni-obekti-naslidki-rosijskoi-ataki-5-veresna-fiksuut-na-hmelniccini/; https://suspilne dot media/khmelnytskiy/1396452-vibiti-vikna-u-zitlovomu-budinku-ta-poskodzeni-avtomobili-fotoreportaz-naslidkiv-ataki-na-hmelniccini/; https://suspilne dot media/khmelnytskiy/1396540-zemla-zdrignulas-ak-zemletrus-na-hmelniccini-likvidovuut-naslidki-obstrilu-5-veresna/; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/73843; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2026/09/06/vnaslidok-rosijskoyi-ataky-na-hmelnychchyni-postrazhdaly-semero-lyudej/; https://t.me/dsns_telegram/73849; https://suspilne dot media/kyiv/1396344-masstabna-pozeza-spalahnula-na-promislovomu-obekti-kiivsini-pisla-ataki-rf/; https://t.me/tkachenkotymur/2818; https://t.me/kyivoda/56234; https://www.facebook.com/mykoda/posts/pfbid02JLg2JL9VEaWXLysnA6RxotBAws1JC9JFQk6Xt395VY7TejwvXdbktdD5Vho9SxK4l?碳纤维[0]=AZg5r5Wxzt-WAfQ9rUeixQH1tYZgdIcYU9WBhtSKfs6LYkvQhLPX7-7MFW9cmSv3pMEEC_bdCqCsbpy_zqL9vHlSmST5 8DFE8dqEB3tSGO7Bi_jouCxdIRSHrhznMeGr_oww3Ap8-zVqYLD9aw-Vwpw7w9cal5_7uuQPm8dLRmBby-AJx342_SCa2LM& tn=%2CO%2CP-R; https://suspilne dot media/mykolaiv/1396600-zaginuv-vodij-poskodzeni-budinki-ta-transport-naslidki-atak-na-mikolaivsinu/; https://t.me/poltavskaOVA/34605 ; https://suspilne dot media/poltava/1396626-u-lubenskomu-rajoni-rosijskij-bpla-vluciv-u-teritoriu-privatnogo-pidpriemstva/; https://www.facebook.com/izmail.rda/posts/pfbid0pVg3x3VCfRztHuarjdy53hVr1y7gRBVmqVAJx9brZAHCR1kpauSb2XR8ydyN2oJFl?碳纤维[0]=AZh7GbqCqc7io88h3jfNKyhpyPpEImOplePiWKE3aUwIgcD4BWh1MgCrk199I9q85YHQuNLQAyZaBX N-tKBs-rzzPh_6zlE_gJDEBfRhYctGuMFDp7HNvvQnfeUF84ULbRRzFpbeLcfivMD5sncuUmMN90R45Qku& tn=%2CO%2CP-R; https://suspilne dot media/odesa/1396594-rf-povtorno-atakuvala-punkt-propusku-orlivka-na-odesini/; https://t.me/odessakoval/318; https://t.me/odesacityofficial/62878