EU entering winter with lowest gas reserves on record, IEA boss warns

Al Jazeera interviews Fatih Birol in Berlin as the Iran war disrupts global energy supplies.

The International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol poses during an interview with Reuters in Paris, France, December 15, 2023 [Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters]

Berlin, Germany – Europe is entering winter with historically low gas reserves and cannot withstand further supply shocks, Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, has warned, as the US-Israel war on Iran disrupts global supply chains.

Speaking to Al Jazeera on the sidelines of an international conference in Berlin on Wednesday, Birol said all regions are being hit by energy disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz but that Europe is particularly vulnerable and will likely face rising costs of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the coming months – even if peace returns to the Gulf today.

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“The best day for a ceasefire would have been yesterday,” the energy economist, whose agency advises wealthy member nations and coordinates emergency responses, said.

“Normally before the winter, European countries have a lot of gas stocks, but the gas stocks we have while we are entering this winter are much lower than historical averages,” he said, adding that Europe’s gas is competing with that of Asian countries, which are even more dependent on the Middle East.

“I think if we have a harsh winter, we may see higher prices of natural gas in Europe,” Birol said, adding that the increasingly political nature of energy adds to the uncertainty. “Life will not be easy for Europe this year and also next year.”

European nations have long relied on imported gas to generate electricity for industries and warm homes in the freezing winter. Nearly a 10th of the continent’s LNG transited through the Hormuz Strait before the war. However, Iran’s attacks on vessels have plummeted imports.

As the winter chill settles, the European Union’s natural gas storage is only 72 percent full, down from the usual 90 percent. The shortfall is equivalent to the energy needed to power 10 to 12 million homes, analysts say.

EU energy ministers are now mulling over whether they should ask households and businesses to ration consumption, according to news reports.

Birol said he had long thought about the dangers of relying on the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, he said, his standard question to recruits seeking to join his agency was often: What would they do if the strait shuts down today?

The fallout has hardly come as a surprise. The flare-ups in the alternative Bab al-Mandeb strait, he added, have only worsened things.

“World leaders, how do they think?” Birol, who was born in Turkiye, said in his usual measured tone.

“I am really disappointed that governments didn’t take the necessary measures. Now, everybody is in a hurry, taking measures; the Middle East countries are building new pipelines, expanding the new pipelines that are bypassing the Strait of Hormuz … but in my view, these efforts should have been done much earlier.”

Europe’s historical over-reliance to blame

The EU, whose ageing refineries have processed less crude in recent years, also faces shortages of imported refined products such as the diesel that powers the bloc’s trucking, agricultural and industrial sectors.

Birol said Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries were also behind a looming diesel scarcity. About a third of Russian deliveries have stopped coming, he said.

When the Group of Seven (G7) nations agreed to push 400 million barrels of crude and diesel from their strategic reserves in March, it was Birol who coordinated how those emergency stocks reached global markets – the third time he has had to oversee emergency stock releases since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

For years, the energy economist said, his agency warned that the bloc was too tethered to Russia’s fuel, and that it had turned away too early from nuclear-generated power, which gave countries domestic leverage.

When Russia invaded Ukraine, his warnings manifested after Moscow cut gas supplies in retaliation for sanctions. The EU plans to permanently phase out Russian gas, but amid the Gulf crisis, members like France have again stepped up orders.

Price buffers stretched

Industry experts say emergency reserves that hit the market have limited use, as some estimate only a few months will be covered.

But Birol argued that his agency recorded real impact – a $20 drop in soaring oil prices immediately after the G7 countries agreed to release 100 billion barrels of crude oil and diesel earlier this month.

Prices are, however, on the rise again. Gas has surged by 140 percent since February, and Brent crude is trading well above $100.

Whatever happens now, the war will be felt for months, Birol pointed out, adding that it has irrevocably altered how energy will travel around the world.

It is also altering Europe’s politics, Birol noted. Russia has wielded gas as a weapon. And populist parties, from France to Germany, are capturing growing public anger to frame mainstream governments as incompetent.

“I have never ever seen the dark and long shadow of geopolitics so dominant in the energy sector,” Birol mused. “The world has gone through so many difficult periods, but this is the worst in terms of the geopolitics dominating the energy game. Energy is not currently considered a business but a political leverage. As an energy man, this worries me.”

The EU still has about 80 percent of its emergency stocks, and Birol hopes he will not have to oversee a fourth release. But the world’s supply can’t take more shocks, he said.

“I really hope that both of the straits will be unconditionally opened sometime soon; otherwise, in the energy world, we don’t have much more buffer zones to still keep the prices at a certain level (as) we have today,” he concluded.

伊朗战争扰乱全球能源供应之际，半岛电视台在柏林采访了法提赫·比罗尔。

国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔于2023年12月15日在法国巴黎接受路透社采访时摆姿势拍照。[Sarah Meyssonnier/路透社]

德国柏林——国际能源署署长法提赫·比罗尔警告称，欧洲正以历史低位进入冬季，无法承受进一步的供应冲击，而美以对伊朗的战争正在扰乱全球供应链。

周三，比罗尔在柏林举行的国际会议间隙接受半岛电视台采访时表示，霍尔木兹海峡的能源中断影响了所有地区，但欧洲尤其脆弱，即使海湾地区今天恢复和平，未来几个月液化天然气 (LNG) 的价格也可能上涨。

卡塔尔警告称，伊朗战争引发的全球能源冲击波尚未达到峰值（共4条，此为第1条）。

美国放弃以石油换取安全的策略，转而关注中东，这是美国放弃这一策略的四个举措之一：特使汤姆·巴拉克

列表 3/4：马克龙访问海湾地区，法国能否打造属于自己的能源安全未来？

欧盟在俄罗斯和美国的压力下修改北极战略（共4项，此为第4项）

这位能源经济学家表示：“昨天本该是停火的最佳时机。”他的机构为富裕成员国提供咨询并协调紧急应对措施。

“通常在冬季到来之前，欧洲国家都有大量的天然气库存，但今年冬季来临之际，我们的天然气库存远低于历史平均水平，”他说道，并补充说，欧洲的天然气正在与亚洲国家的天然气竞争，而亚洲国家对中东的依赖程度更高。

比罗尔表示：“我认为，如果今年冬天异常严寒，欧洲天然气价格可能会上涨。”他还补充说，能源领域日益政治化加剧了这种不确定性。“今年和明年，欧洲的日子都不会好过。”

长期以来，欧洲各国依赖进口天然气来发电，以满足工业生产和冬季家庭取暖的需求。战前，欧洲近十分之一的液化天然气（LNG）经由霍尔木兹海峡运输。然而，伊朗对船只的袭击导致进口量骤降。

随着冬日寒意袭来，欧盟天然气储备仅达到72%，远低于通常的90%。分析人士称，这一缺口相当于1000万至1200万户家庭的用电量。

据新闻报道，欧盟能源部长们正在考虑是否应该要求家庭和企业实行限购。

比罗尔说，他早就思考过依赖霍尔木兹海峡的危险性。事实上，他说，他经常问那些想加入他所在机构的人：如果今天海峡关闭了，他们该怎么办？

这一后果几乎在意料之中。他补充说，另一条通道——曼德海峡的冲突升级只会让情况变得更糟。

“世界各国领导人是怎么想的？”出生于土耳其的比罗尔用他一贯沉稳的语气说道。

“我非常失望各国政府没有采取必要的措施。现在，大家都在急于采取措施；中东国家正在修建新的管道，扩建绕过霍尔木兹海峡的现有管道……但在我看来，这些努力本应更早进行。”

欧洲历史上过度依赖归咎于

欧盟的炼油厂老化，近年来原油加工量减少，同时，欧盟也面临着进口精炼产品（如柴油）短缺的问题，而柴油是欧盟卡车运输、农业和工业部门的动力来源。

比罗尔表示，乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击也是造成柴油短缺迫在眉睫的原因之一。他说，大约三分之一的俄罗斯柴油供应已经停止。

今年 3 月，七国集团 (G7) 同意从其战略储备中调拨 4 亿桶原油和柴油，当时正是比罗尔协调了这些紧急储备如何进入全球市场——这是自 2022 年俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，他第三次不得不监督紧急储备的释放。

这位能源经济学家表示，多年来，他的机构一直警告说，欧盟对俄罗斯的燃料依赖性太强，而且过早地放弃了核能发电，而核能发电赋予了各国国内的影响力。

俄罗斯入侵乌克兰后，他的警告应验了，莫斯科为了报复制裁而削减了天然气供应。欧盟计划永久停止使用俄罗斯天然气，但在海湾危机期间，法国等成员国再次增加了订单。

价格缓冲空间拉大

业内专家表示，流入市场的应急储备用途有限，因为据估计，这些储备只能维持几个月的运营。

但比罗尔辩称，他的机构记录到了实际的影响——在本月初七国集团同意释放 1000 亿桶原油和柴油后，飙升的油价立即下降了 20 美元。

然而，物价再次上涨。自2月份以来，汽油价格已飙升140%，布伦特原油价格也远高于每桶100美元。

比罗尔指出，无论现在发生什么，战争的影响都将持续数月，并补充说，战争已经不可逆转地改变了全球能源流通的方式。

比罗尔指出，这也在改变欧洲的政治格局。俄罗斯已将天然气作为武器。从法国到德国，民粹主义政党正利用日益高涨的民怨，将主流政府描绘成无能之辈。

“我从未见过地缘政治的阴影如此深远地笼罩能源领域，”比罗尔沉思道。“世界经历过许多艰难时期，但就地缘政治对能源格局的主导作用而言，如今的情况最为糟糕。能源现在不再被视为一项事业，而是一种政治筹码。作为一名能源从业者，我对此感到担忧。”

欧盟目前仍保留着约80%的紧急储备，比罗尔希望不必监督第四次释放。但他表示，全球供应已无法承受更多冲击。

“我真心希望海峡两岸能够尽快无条件开放；否则，在能源领域，我们将没有多少缓冲空间来维持价格在目前的水平，”他总结道。