Three ways the Iran war changed the global economy

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The effects of the Iran war are obvious to most Americans: Gas prices have been hovering above $4 for weeks, mortgage rates are rising toward 7% and companies are adding shipping surcharges to make up for record diesel costs .

Those cost-of-living increases have lasted longer than the Trump administration had claimed they would, although they should eventually reverse themselves if and when the United States and Iran reach a ceasefire agreement.

But other economic changes won’t be so easily reversed . The war has altered the global economy in lasting ways that have reshaped the way the world does business.

Before the war, ships under any country’s banner could freely transit the Strait of Hormuz to collect and deliver goods to and from the Middle East. A fifth of the world’s oil traveled through the narrow passage every day.

The idea of who controls the strait permanently changed after the United States and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Iran declared the strait its own to control, and it attacked vessels that tried to enter or exit the Persian Gulf. The effective closure of the strait gave Iran economic leverage over the United States and its Gulf state allies, closing off 13 million barrels of oil supply to the global economy.

Iran changed its strait tactic in May. Rather than attempting to close the strait, it started regulating the channel’s use. It formed the Persian Gulf Strait Authority and began requiring transiting ships to register with the group, follow an authorized navigation path and pay a toll to cross. After signing a Memorandum of Understanding with the United States in June, Iran agreed to stop charging tolls for 60 days, but it continued to attack transiting ships that failed to register with the authority.

Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA/AP

After effectively tearing up the memorandum of understanding, the US military began coordinating and escorting “dark,” nighttime transits across the strait to increase Persian Gulf oil exports and avoid Iranian drone attacks. The effort has been working, but the need for such a massive, taxing and expensive operation proves how much influence Iran has gained over the Strait of Hormuz.

“It seems likely that Iran will emerge from the war with a stronger position over control of the strait, and that will force countries reliant on Middle Eastern crude to adapt,” said Ross Mayfield, investment Strategist at Baird. “Hormuz closure went from a hypothetical tail risk to a demonstrated and effective tactic.”

Oil analysts believe the conflict’s eventual resolution could ultimately involve some kind of agreement to allow Iran to charge tolls for safe passage through the strait. Some critics fear that would set a precedent for other countries to charge ships to pass through international waterways.

But such precedent already exists, noted Natasha Kaneva, head of commodities analysis at JPMorgan. The United Nations allows countries to charge service fees – not to transit waterways but for navigational safety, traffic management, security escorts, emergency response and environmental protection. Turkey, Denmark, Sweden, Russia and Indonesia all charge service fees for transiting various straits, Kaneva pointed out.

The change could add $1 or so to the price of oil if Iran adopts a fee structure similar to what Turkey charges for the Turkish Straits, Kaneva said. A very large crude carrier could pay around $260,000 for a round-trip transit.

It doesn’t produce much oil, but China proved it is the most powerful force in the oil market during the Iran war.

That’s because China demonstrated a unique ability to modulate its demand, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist for RSM US.

China’s heavy reliance on the massive oil stockpiles it built up before the war dramatically reduced the country’s crude imports by around 5 million barrels per day. At some point, it will need to refill its stockpiles and demand will pick up again.

But some changes in Chinese consumer behavior will become permanent.

For example, during the five-day May Day holiday, EV charging on China’s highways surged 55.6% over the previous year, according to China’s Ministry of Transport. Over the course of the holiday, just under a quarter of cars traveling on China’s highways were EVs — up 33% from a year earlier.

China was also able to quickly switch from oil- and gas-burning electricity plants to coal, demonstrating unparalleled resilience in the face of an unprecedented oil shock.

Demand for oil plunged during the war — much more than oil industry analysts had expected — proving that the world is much more flexible about its oil usage than previously believed.

Of the 1.9 billion barrels of Middle Eastern crude that the market lost during the course of the war, 800 million barrels — just under half — were absorbed by people and businesses consuming less oil, according to JPMorgan.

It’s not clear how much of that flexibility is permanent and how much is temporary. But permanent declines in oil usage, even just from China, could dent demand enough that it never fully recovers . We may have reached peak oil .

“History suggests that past oil shocks often left lasting declines in gasoline demand, and this episode may prove no different,” said Kaneva.

Another significant adjustment during the Iran war was the ramp-up in oil production from unexpected sources.

Exploration and alternative energy development outside the Middle East is ramping up, noted Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. And existing oil projects are dialing up their drilling: Brazil added 800,000 barrels per day to its crude output. Guyana added 300,000, Canada 200,000 and Norway 150,000, according to JPMorgan.

And the United States, which initially resisted increasing its output out of fear of getting burned by a temporary oil price spike, now produces 900,000 barrels a day more than it did at this point last year.

Most of America’s increased production came from privately operated rigs shipping to refineries to produce jet fuel and natural gas for the European market, which is running low on supplies. US production could dip a bit once the Strait of Hormuz is fully opened, but JPMorgan expects America’s output to remain close to today’s levels.

Fabio Teixeira/Anadolu/Getty Images

Brazil surprised oil analysts by producing far more than thought capable of at this point, but strong execution in its oil projects will probably lead the country to ramp up production even more. And a new offshore production vessel arriving off the coast of Guyana this month will help the country up the pace of its production from its gigantic well.

To compensate, Middle Eastern producers are changing the way they transport crude, developing alternate routes. Saudi Arabia hired massive truck convoys to ship goods across the country to the Red Sea and maxed out its East-West pipeline to bypass the strait. Iraq is in conversations with Chevron to build a pipeline to the Mediterranean Sea.

Meanwhile, OPEC is in a fight for its own survival after the United Arab Emirates, one of the consortium’s most significant members, announced it would leave the group in April.

Iraq, the bloc’s second-largest oil producer, is reportedly the next shoe to drop — the country’s oil minister told Bloomberg that Iraq would have to decide whether or not to remain with OPEC if production targets don’t dramatically increase. Iraq wants permission to produce a record 5 million barrels a day coming out of the war, with a long-term aim of up to 7 million barrels a day, Bloomberg reported.

That could force Saudi Arabia to allow other countries to produce more oil than the world demands. That could be good for consumer prices, driving them lower. But it could also create a permanent oil glut that could dramatically reduce oil profits.

艾莉森·乔伊斯/彭博社/盖蒂图片社

伊朗战争的影响对大多数美国人来说显而易见：汽油价格已连续数周徘徊在每加仑 4 美元以上，抵押贷款利率正逼近 7%，各公司都在增加运输附加费以弥补创纪录的柴油成本。

尽管生活成本上涨的持续时间比特朗普政府声称的要长，但如果美国和伊朗达成停火协议，这些上涨最终应该会逆转。

但其他经济变化却难以逆转。这场战争以持久的方式改变了全球经济，重塑了世界商业运作的方式。

战前，任何国家的船只都可以自由通过霍尔木兹海峡，往返中东地区运送货物。每天，全球五分之一的石油都要经过这条狭窄的海峡。

在2月底美国和以色列袭击伊朗后，谁控制霍尔木兹海峡的格局发生了永久性改变。伊朗宣布霍尔木兹海峡归其所有，并袭击了试图进出波斯湾的船只。霍尔木兹海峡的有效封锁使伊朗获得了对美国及其海湾盟友的经济影响力，切断了全球经济1300万桶的石油供应。

伊朗在5月份改变了其海峡策略。它不再试图封锁海峡，而是开始规范海峡的使用。伊朗成立了波斯湾海峡管理局，并开始要求过境船只在该机构登记，遵循指定的航行路线，并缴纳通行费。6月份与美国签署谅解备忘录后，伊朗同意暂停收取通行费60天，但它仍然继续攻击未在管理局登记的过境船只。

阿米尔侯赛因·霍尔古伊/ISNA/美联社

在实际上撕毁谅解备忘录后，美国军方开始协调并护送“暗船”夜间穿越霍尔木兹海峡，以增加波斯湾石油出口并避免伊朗无人机袭击。这项行动已初见成效，但如此大规模、耗资巨大且耗资不菲的行动，恰恰证明了伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的影响力之大。

“伊朗很可能在战争后对霍尔木兹海峡的控制权占据更有利的地位，这将迫使依赖中东原油的国家做出调整，”贝尔德投资策略师罗斯·梅菲尔德表示。“霍尔木兹海峡的关闭已经从一种假设性的尾部风险变成了一种已被证明行之有效的策略。”

石油分析人士认为，冲突的最终解决可能涉及某种协议，允许伊朗对通过霍尔木兹海峡的船只收取通行费。一些批评人士担心，这将开创先例，其他国家也可能对通过国际水道的船只收取费用。

摩根大通大宗商品分析主管娜塔莎·卡内娃指出，这样的先例早已存在。联合国允许各国收取服务费——并非用于水道通行，而是用于航行安全、交通管理、安保护送、应急响应和环境保护。卡内娃指出，土耳其、丹麦、瑞典、俄罗斯和印度尼西亚都对通过不同海峡收取服务费。

卡内瓦表示，如果伊朗采用类似于土耳其海峡的收费标准，油价可能会上涨约1美元。一艘超大型原油运输船往返过境可能需要支付约26万美元。

虽然中国石油产量不高，但在两伊战争期间，中国证明了自己是石油市场上最强大的力量。

RSM US首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏拉斯表示，这是因为中国展现出了调节需求的独特能力。

中国严重依赖战前积累的大量石油储备，这导致其原油进口量大幅下降，每日减少约500万桶。但未来某个时候，中国需要补充石油储备，届时需求将会再次回升。

但中国消费者行为的一些变化将会成为永久性的。

例如，据中国交通运输部统计，在五一五假期期间，中国高速公路上的电动汽车充电量比上年同期增长了55.6%。假期期间，行驶在中国高速公路上的车辆中，电动汽车占比接近四分之一，比上年同期增长了33%。

中国还能够迅速从燃油和燃气发电厂转向燃煤发电，在面对前所未有的石油冲击时展现出无与伦比的韧性。

战争期间石油需求大幅下降——远超石油行业分析师的预期——这证明世界在石油使用方面比之前认为的要灵活得多。

据摩根大通称，在战争期间，中东市场损失了 19 亿桶原油，其中 8 亿桶（略低于一半）被石油消费量减少的人们和企业吸收。

目前尚不清楚这种灵活性有多少是永久性的，又有多少是暂时的。但即使仅来自中国的石油消费量永久性下降，也可能导致需求大幅下降，以至于永远无法完全恢复。我们或许已经达到了石油峰值。

“历史表明，过去的石油危机往往会导致汽油需求持续下降，而这一次危机可能也不例外，”卡内瓦说。

伊朗战争期间的另一个重大调整是来自意想不到来源的石油产量激增。

利波石油咨询公司总裁安迪·利波指出，中东以外地区的勘探和替代能源开发正在加速推进。现有石油项目也在加大钻探力度：据摩根大通的数据显示，巴西原油日产量增加了80万桶，圭亚那增加了30万桶，加拿大增加了20万桶，挪威增加了15万桶。

美国最初因为担心受到暂时性油价飙升的影响而抵制增产，但现在其日产量比去年同期增加了 90 万桶。

美国新增产量主要来自私营钻井平台，这些钻井平台向炼油厂输送原油，用于生产航空燃油和天然气，供应欧洲市场，而欧洲市场的供应目前正面临短缺。一旦霍尔木兹海峡完全开放，美国的产量可能会略有下降，但摩根大通预计美国的产量将与目前的水平保持接近。

法比奥·特谢拉/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

巴西目前的石油产量远超预期，令石油分析师们大吃一惊。但其石油项目的高效执行可能会促使巴西进一步提高产量。此外，一艘新的海上石油生产船本月抵达圭亚那海岸，将有助于该国加快其巨型油井的产量。

为了弥补损失，中东产油国正在改变原油运输方式，开发替代路线。沙特阿拉伯雇佣了庞大的卡车车队，将货物运往红海，并最大限度地利用其东西输油管道绕过霍尔木兹海峡。伊拉克正在与雪佛龙公司洽谈，计划修建一条通往地中海的输油管道。

与此同时，欧佩克正面临着生存之战，因为该组织最重要的成员之一——阿联酋在4月份宣布将退出该组织。

据报道，伊拉克是欧佩克第二大产油国，可能是下一个受影响的国家。伊拉克石油部长告诉彭博社，如果产量目标没有大幅提高，伊拉克将不得不决定是否继续留在欧佩克。彭博社报道称，伊拉克希望在战后获得日产500万桶的许可，创历史新高，其长期目标是日产700万桶。

这可能迫使沙特阿拉伯允许其他国家生产超过世界需求的石油。这或许有利于降低消费价格，但也可能造成永久性的石油过剩，从而大幅降低石油利润。