What early voting data shows about the Black vote in the South

On the campaign trail

• Early voting data : In three Southern states, Black voters who didn’t cast ballots in either or both the 2022 and 2024 elections are turning out this year at higher rates. See what the data shows about more than 34 million votes cast so far in CNN’s early vote tracker .

• Obama and Trump battle again : The longtime rivals are hitting the campaign trail at the same time, with former President Barack Obama going to Georgia to rally with Sen. Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial nominee Keisha Lance Bottoms, and President Donald Trump going to Ohio to help Sen. Jon Husted.

• New Hampshire Senate debate : Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John E. Sununu will debate at 9 p.m. ET. They’re vying for an open seat Republicans have hoped to flip but where Pappas has held a polling lead. CNN’s latest ranking of Senate seats most likely to flip lists New Hampshire as No. 9.

How higher Black turnout could reshape the midterms

Several states across the South have large Black populations and longstanding Democratic hopes that they can flip statewide races with higher turnout.

Black turnout is strong in both Georgia and North Carolina, according to early voting data.

Former President Barack Obama is visiting Georgia on Wednesday, where he will campaign with Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff and gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms.

North Carolina is home to a key Senate race where Democrat Roy Cooper has been leading Republican Michael Whatley in a bid to flip the seat held by GOP Sen. Thom Tillis.

Democrats are also launching a longshot bid to flip a deep-red Senate seat in Mississippi , where Donald Trump rallied on Monday and both Democrats and Republicans have invested recently . While Mississippi has very limited early voting, similarly strong Black turnout in the state would greatly bolster Democratic candidate Scott Colom.

Early voting data suggests strong motivation among Black voters in the South

Erik S. Lesser/AFP/Getty Images

Early voting data suggests strong motivation among Black voters in several Southern states, including the key states of Georgia and North Carolina.

Black voters are 36% of the early voting electorate in Georgia, up from 29% at the same point in 2024, according to data from Catalist. A similar share has turned out in Louisiana (34% compared to 25% in 2024), while the share in North Carolina has increased from 19% to 23%.

One encouraging sign for Democrats, beyond the high share of Black voters, is relatively strong turnout among Black voters and other voters of color who sat out one or both the 2022 and 2024 elections.

Among early voters in Georgia who turned out for both of those previous elections, 35% are Black and 59% White, compared to 38% Black and 46% White who voted in just one of the two elections. Voters who participated in neither election are 39% Black and 43% White.

This pattern, where Black voters are a larger share among more infrequent voters, is also present in North Carolina and is particularly strong in Louisiana, where Black voters are 33% of voters who cast ballots in 2022 and 2024. This goes up to 43% among voters who took part in just one of the elections and 39% among voters that skipped both.

While the most frequent voters make up the lion’s share of the electorate in all three states, less frequent voters still make up a meaningful portion of the electorate. In Georgia, 6% of early voters so far skipped both 2022 and 2024 (4% and 6% in Louisiana and North Carolina), and 13% cast ballots in just one (15% in Louisiana and 17% in North Carolina).

Iran war cost soars to $47.1 billion

US Navy/Getty Images

The cost of the US war with Iran soared to $47.1 billion as of October 16, according to data the Pentagon recently provided Congress.

The latest price tag shows the US spent $2 billion in the last six weeks.

The war has also pushed up fuel prices in the US, and polls show voters are furious about the high cost of living that has been exacerbated by President Donald Trump’s policies – including the Iran war.

The war has caused about $2,000 in higher costs for the average American household since it started, according to Moody’s Analytics.

Trump has repeatedly brushed off the rising prices, arguing that it’s worth ensuring that Iran cannot develop a nuclear weapon.

And as recently as yesterday, he’s boasted about the profits made by US fuel companies. At a rally in Corpus Christi, Texas, he said that the US is “making a fortune” off the war in Iran.

CNN previously reported that the Pentagon put the cost of the Iran war at $45.1 billion as of September 3, according to two sources.

The newest unclassified Defense Department report recently shared with lawmakers and obtained by CNN includes a breakdown of expenses for the different branches of the armed forces.

Those expenses include:

Air Force: $7.6 billion.

Navy: $1.45 billion.

Special Operations Command (airlift operations): $645 million

CNN’s David Goldman and Aaron Blake contributed reporting.

“I think we made a big impact,” Trump says of Texas campaign stop

Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

President Donald Trump touted his campaign blitz to Texas ahead of next week’s midterm elections as he continues to hit the trail in red states in support of GOP candidates.

“We had a tremendous day in Texas. We had two big rallies. They were packed. Had people watching outside the streets,” Trump said upon arrival at Joint Base Andrews early Wednesday morning.

In recent days, the president has made stops in traditionally red states, such as Mississippi, underscoring GOP concerns about once-safe seats.

On Wednesday, he’s set to hold a campaign rally in Chillicothe, Ohio, marking his third campaign visit this month to a state he won in 2024 amid signs it may turn purple again .

He’s also expected to visit South Carolina on Thursday, where he has rallied for Sen. Darline Graham, who is running against Democratic nominee Annie Andrews to succeed her late brother in the Senate.

Trump and Talarico campaigned two miles apart in Texas. Here are Tuesday's highlights

President Donald Trump sought to bolster Republicans facing tougher-than-expected contests in the Lone Star State yesterday with rallies in Corpus Christi and Lubbock , two miles from where Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico also campaigned.

Democrats are hoping to snap a 32-year statewide losing streak in the Senate and governor’s races.

Here are Tuesday’s highlights:

At his rally in Lubbock for Ken Paxton, Trump announced he’s rolling back methane regulations enacted under former President Joe Biden to “save consumers and energy producers” billions of dollars.

In Michigan, Vice President JD Vance called the state’s Senate race “the most important election in the United States of America,” accusing Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed of seeking to undermine the nation’s values .

This midterm cycle has set a new record for ad spending , according to tracking service AdImpact, with $11.21 billion spent. Projected ad spending in the final week of midterms campaigning shows money pouring into red states with competitive Senate races , AdImpact shows.

Twenty-one midterm races shifted in favor of Democrats, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election forecasting report.

The races for governor in Kansas and Nebraska have shifted slightly toward Democrats , according to the latest Cook Political Report.

House Speaker Mike Johnson committed to a peaceful transfer of power in Congress if Democrats win. Trump, meanwhile, said he will respect the outcome of the midterm elections — if they are “honest.” He has repeatedly attacked the integrity of the voting process and used the federal government to try to assert more control over how states oversee elections.

CNN’s Danya Gainor, David Wright, Adam Cancryn, Alejandra Jaramillo, Katherine Koretski and Sarah Owermohle contributed reporting.

在竞选活动中

• 提前投票数据：在南方三个州，2022年和2024年大选中均未投票的黑人选民今年投票率更高。请查看CNN提前投票追踪器，了解目前已投出的超过3400万张选票的数据。

• 奥巴马和特朗普再次交锋：这对长期的竞争对手同时展开竞选活动，前总统巴拉克·奥巴马前往佐治亚州，与参议员乔恩·奥索夫和州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯一起举行集会，而唐纳德·特朗普总统则前往俄亥俄州，帮助参议员乔恩·赫斯特德。

• 新罕布什尔州参议院辩论：众议员克里斯·帕帕斯和前参议员约翰·E·苏努努将于美国东部时间晚上9点进行辩论。他们正在争夺一个空缺席位，共和党一直希望能够翻盘，但帕帕斯在民调中保持领先。CNN最新发布的最有可能易手的参议院席位排名中，新罕布什尔州位列第九。

黑人选民投票率提高将如何重塑中期选举格局？

南方几个州的黑人人口众多，民主党长期以来一直希望通过提高投票率来扭转全州选举的局势。

根据提前投票数据，佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州的黑人投票率都很高。

前总统巴拉克·奥巴马将于周三访问佐治亚州，届时他将与民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫和州长候选人凯莎·兰斯·博顿斯一起参加竞选活动。

北卡罗来纳州正在进行一场关键的参议院竞选，民主党候选人罗伊·库珀一直领先于共和党候选人迈克尔·沃特利，力图夺回共和党参议员汤姆·蒂利斯占据的席位。

民主党人也正发起一场胜算渺茫的行动，试图在密西西比州翻盘一个深红的参议院席位。周一，唐纳德·特朗普在该州举行了竞选集会，民主党和共和党近期都在该州投入了大量资源。尽管密西西比州的提前投票非常有限，但如果该州黑人选民的投票率同样很高，将极大地提振民主党候选人斯科特·科洛姆的选情。

早期投票数据显示，南方黑人选民的投票积极性很高。

Erik S. Lesser/法新社/盖蒂图片社

早期投票数据显示，包括佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州在内的几个南方州的黑人选民投票积极性很高。

根据Catalist的数据，佐治亚州提前投票的选民中，黑人选民占36%，高于2024年同期预测的29%。路易斯安那州的黑人选民比例也与之类似（34%，而2024年预计为25%），北卡罗来纳州的黑人选民比例则从19%上升至23%。

对于民主党人来说，除了黑人选民比例高之外，还有一个令人鼓舞的迹象，那就是在2022年和2024年选举中，黑人选民和其他有色人种选民的投票率相对较高，而他们之前在这两届选举中都没有投票。

在佐治亚州前两次选举中都参与投票的提前投票者中，35%为黑人，59%为白人；相比之下，只参加过一次选举的选民中，黑人占38%，白人占46%。两次选举均未参与的选民中，黑人占39%，白人占43%。

这种黑人选民在投票频率较低的选民中所占比例较高的模式，在北卡罗来纳州也存在，在路易斯安那州尤其明显，在2022年和2024年投票的选民中，黑人选民占33%。在只参加过一次选举的选民中，这一比例上升至43%，而在两次选举都未参加的选民中，这一比例上升至39%。

虽然在这三个州，投票频率最高的选民占选民总数的绝大部分，但投票频率较低的选民仍然占选民总数的相当一部分。在佐治亚州，迄今为止，6%的提前投票选民既没有参加2022年大选，也没有参加2024年大选（路易斯安那州和北卡罗来纳州分别为4%和6%），13%的选民只参加过一次大选（路易斯安那州为15%，北卡罗来纳州为17%）。

伊朗战争耗资飙升至471亿美元

美国海军/盖蒂图片社

根据五角大楼最近向国会提供的数据，截至10月16日，美国与伊朗战争的成本已飙升至471亿美元。

最新数据显示，美国在过去六周内花费了20亿美元。

这场战争也推高了美国的燃料价格，民调显示，选民们对高昂的生活成本感到愤怒，而唐纳德·特朗普总统的政策（包括伊朗战争）加剧了这一问题。

据穆迪分析公司称，自战争开始以来，这场战争已导致美国普通家庭的支出增加了约 2000 美元。

特朗普一再对物价上涨不以为然，他认为确保伊朗无法发展核武器才是最重要的。

就在昨天，他还吹嘘美国燃料公司赚取的利润。在德克萨斯州科珀斯克里斯蒂市的一次集会上，他说美国正从伊朗战争中“大发横财”。

据CNN此前报道，根据两名消息人士透露，截至9月3日，五角大楼估计伊朗战争的成本为451亿美元。

CNN获得的一份最新国防部非机密报告（最近已提交给立法者）详细列出了各军种的开支明细。

这些费用包括：

空军：76亿美元。

海军：14.5亿美元。

特种作战司令部（空运行动）：6.45亿美元

CNN的David Goldman和Aaron Blake对此报道亦有贡献。

“我认为我们产生了很大的影响，”特朗普在谈到德克萨斯州竞选活动时说道。

Kent Nishimura/AFP/Getty Images

在下周中期选举前夕，唐纳德·特朗普总统大力宣传他在德克萨斯州的竞选活动，同时他继续在共和党传统票仓州为共和党候选人助选。

“我们在德克萨斯州度过了非常棒的一天。我们举行了两场大型集会，场馆内人山人海，街上也挤满了人，”特朗普周三清晨抵达安德鲁斯联合基地时说道。

近日，总统到访了密西西比州等传统上支持共和党的州，凸显了共和党对曾经稳固的席位的担忧。

周三，他将在俄亥俄州奇利科西举行竞选集会，这将是他本月第三次访问俄亥俄州，而他在2024年赢得了该州的选举，有迹象表明该州可能会再次变成摇摆州。

预计他将于周四访问南卡罗来纳州，在那里他为参议员达琳·格雷厄姆助选，达琳·格雷厄姆正在与民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯竞选，以接替她已故的哥哥在参议院的席位。

特朗普和塔拉里科在德克萨斯州相距两英里的地方进行竞选活动。以下是周二的要点。

昨天，唐纳德·特朗普总统在科珀斯克里斯蒂和拉伯克举行集会，试图提振共和党在孤星州面临的比预期更为艰难的选情。拉伯克距离民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科竞选的地点仅两英里。

民主党人希望结束在参议院和州长选举中长达32年的全州连败纪录。

以下是周二的新闻要点：

在卢博克为肯·帕克斯顿举行的集会上，特朗普宣布他将撤销前总统乔·拜登颁布的甲烷排放法规，以“为消费者和能源生产商节省”数十亿美元。

在密歇根州，副总统 JD Vance 称该州的参议院选举是“美国最重要的选举”，并指责民主党候选人 Abdul El-Sayed 试图破坏国家的价值观。

据广告追踪服务机构AdImpact的数据显示，本届中期选举的广告支出创下新纪录，达到112.1亿美元。AdImpact的数据显示，在中期选举竞选的最后一周，预计的广告支出将大量涌入参议院席位竞争激烈的共和党州。

根据选举预测报告《萨巴托水晶球》的预测，21场中期选举的形势向民主党倾斜。

根据最新的库克政治报告，堪萨斯州和内布拉斯加州的州长竞选形势略微向民主党倾斜。

众议院议长迈克·约翰逊承诺，如果民主党赢得中期选举，国会将和平移交权力。与此同时，特朗普表示，如果中期选举“公正”，他将尊重选举结果。他曾多次攻击选举程序的公正性，并试图利用联邦政府加强对各州选举监督的控制。

CNN的Danya Gainor、David Wright、Adam Cancryn、Alejandra Jaramillo、Katherine Koretski和Sarah Owermohle对报道做出了贡献。