Nicholas Hopton Reacts to the Outcomes of Israel's Election

Comment by Nicholas Hopton

The impact of the election will be felt well beyond Israel’s borders and the region.

The impact of the election will be felt well beyond Israel's borders and the region. Although, as former Prime Minister of Israel Ehud Olmert said recently, Netanyahu and his government have done great damage to Israel's standing in the world, the outcome of the election may go some way to mitigating its long-term impacts in two of Israel's most important traditional western allies, the US and the UK.

In the case of the US, despite President Trump’s endorsement of Netanyahu, the direction of public opinion seems clear and misgivings across the political spectrum are unlikely to be diminished.

In the UK, that outcome is likely to be more damaging. Relations are already at their lowest ebb in decades following the Burnham Labour government's sanction of illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and the misjudged Israeli reaction – attempting in defiance of diplomatic conventions and international law to close the Consulate General in Jerusalem, and then most recently Netanyahu endorsing Argentina‘s claim to the Falkland Islands.

That said, a Netanyahu come-back seems perhaps one of the less likely scenarios, even though opposition candidates may not be able to end his political career completely at this stage. The polls suggest a closer race than seemed likely a few weeks ago, and the margin of error may be substantive. Yet, Netanyahu may benefit from the approximately 0.5 million first time voters with Israeli youth moving politically to the Right.

The most likely scenario may be weeks if not months of political wrangling and failed attempts at coalition building between unlikely bedfellows, followed by an election rerun in the New Year sometime. In that case, there may be opportunities for both the US and UK to try and reset their damaged relationships with Israel by seeking a fresh start with whoever emerges as the post-Netanyahu leader of the Israeli government.

Nicholas Hopton is a RUSI Distinguished Fellow, affiliated with the International Security research group

Middle East and North Africa

Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories

International Security

The Middle East, North Africa and Turkey in the New Global Order Programme

RUSI Distinguished Fellow, International Security

尼古拉斯·霍普顿的评论

此次选举的影响将远远超出以色列国界和该地区。

此次选举的影响将远远超出以色列国界和本地区。尽管正如以色列前总理埃胡德·奥尔默特最近所说，内塔尼亚胡及其政府严重损害了以色列的国际地位，但选举结果或许能在一定程度上缓解其对以色列两个最重要的传统西方盟友——美国和英国——的长期影响。

就美国而言，尽管特朗普总统支持内塔尼亚胡，但公众舆论的方向似乎很明确，而且整个政治光谱中的疑虑不太可能减少。

在英国，这样的结果可能会造成更大的损害。自伯纳姆领导的工党政府批准以色列在西岸非法定居点以及以色列反应失误——以色列试图无视外交惯例和国际法关闭驻耶路撒冷总领事馆，以及最近内塔尼亚胡支持阿根廷对福克兰群岛的主权声索——以来，英美关系已跌至数十年来的最低点。

尽管如此，内塔尼亚胡卷土重来的可能性似乎不大，即便反对派候选人目前可能无法彻底终结他的政治生涯。民调显示，选情比几周前预想的更为胶着，误差范围可能相当大。然而，以色列年轻一代的政治倾向趋向右翼，约有50万首次投票的选民可能会对内塔尼亚胡有利。

最有可能出现的情况是，各方展开数周甚至数月的政治角力，试图组建联合政府却屡屡失败，最终在新年某个时候举行重新选举。在这种情况下，美国和英国或许有机会通过与内塔尼亚胡下台后以色列政府的新领导人建立新的关系，来修复与以色列受损的关系。

尼古拉斯·霍普顿是皇家联合军种研究所（RUSI）的杰出研究员，隶属于国际安全研究小组。

中东和北非

以色列和被占领的巴勒斯坦领土

国际安全

新全球秩序方案中的中东、北非和土耳其

皇家联合军种研究所杰出研究员，国际安全