Alaa Zoubi Comments on the Outcome of Israel's Elections

Comment by Alaa Zoubi

Many expect the election to alter the landscape, but the underlying strategic dilemmas in Gaza and the West Bank will persist regardless of who takes power.

Although there is much speculation that the elections will bring about changes straight away regarding the Palestinian issue, the truth of politics reveals something else. Election day marks only the beginning of a process whereby the forming of a coalition in Israel can take up to 100 days . Many expect the election to alter the landscape, but the underlying strategic dilemmas in Gaza and the West Bank will persist regardless of who takes power.

The main contest pits Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud against Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar. Crucially, both leaders share baseline security principles: both oppose Palestinian statehood and reject a total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza without overriding security control. While their implementation methods and openness to diplomatic compromise may differ, reality on the ground rather than campaign pledges, will heavily influence whether policies continue or adapt.

The core operational stalemate in Gaza continues to be that of security transition and governance. In the international framework, as exemplified in the US-endorsed Board of Peace with its 20-Point Plan, there is a transition envisaged towards a non-Hamas Palestinian government of technocrats, with the assistance of the International Security Force (ISF). The success of the plan, however, depends on the complete disarmament of Hamas. Since Hamas has not intend yet to disarm before the Israelis withdraw from Gaza, it leaves the new government with an instant stalemate situation to deal with.

In the West Bank, the newly elected government will need to manage escalating diplomatic friction. Recent events including the international sanctions such as those from the UK and its allies due to the construction of settlements and outpost attacks make up a very difficult dilemma for the new government to handle.

In the end, how the new Israeli government that will be formed, if done within the 100-day period, will manage to overcome these open issues depends largely on domestic factors. The new government will have to deal with the stress that is felt by the military, the highly political issue of Haredi draft exemptions and the remaining open fronts in Lebanon and Iran. It is through these domestic factors alongside the new coalition decides to form a State Commission of Inquiry as a result of the October 7 failures, will alter the internal balance of power and heavily dictate the tactical limits and strategic posture of Israel’s policy towards Gaza, the West Bank and the wider region.

Alaa Zoubi is Research Assistant for Middle East Security

Middle East and North Africa

Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories

International Security

The Middle East, North Africa and Turkey in the New Global Order Programme

Research Assistant, Middle East Security

阿拉·祖比的评论

许多人预计此次选举将改变局势，但无论谁掌权，加沙和西岸地区潜在的战略困境仍将持续存在。

尽管许多人猜测选举将立即改变巴勒斯坦问题，但政治的真相却并非如此。选举日仅仅是组建以色列联合政府进程的开始，整个过程可能需要长达100天。许多人期待选举能够改变局势，但无论谁上台执政，加沙和西岸地区根本的战略困境都将继续存在。

此次主要竞争将在总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团和加迪·艾森科特领导的亚沙尔党之间展开。至关重要的是，两位领导人在安全原则上有着共同之处：他们都反对巴勒斯坦建国，并且都拒绝在不加强安全控制的情况下从加沙全面撤军。尽管他们在具体实施方式和外交妥协的意愿上可能有所不同，但最终决定政策走向的，是实地情况，而非竞选承诺。

加沙地带的核心僵局依然在于安全过渡和治理问题。在国际框架内，以美国支持的和平委员会及其“二十点计划”为代表，设想在国际安全部队（ISF）的协助下，向一个由技术官僚组成的、非哈马斯主导的巴勒斯坦政府过渡。然而，该计划的成功取决于哈马斯的彻底解除武装。由于哈马斯在以色列撤出加沙之前仍无意解除武装，这使得新政府面临着立即陷入僵局的局面。

在西岸，新当选的政府将需要应对不断升级的外交摩擦。近期发生的一系列事件，包括英国及其盟友因西岸定居点建设和前哨袭击而实施的国际制裁，都给新政府带来了极其棘手的难题。

最终，如果能在100天内组建完成，以色列新政府将如何克服这些悬而未决的问题，很大程度上取决于国内因素。新政府必须应对军方面临的压力、哈雷迪派豁免兵役这一高度政治化的问题，以及在黎巴嫩和伊朗仍然存在的未决战线。正是这些国内因素，加上新联合政府决定就10月7日事件的失败成立国家调查委员会，将改变以色列内部的权力平衡，并深刻影响以色列对加沙、西岸以及更广泛地区的政策策略和战略态势。

阿拉·祖比是中东安全研究助理

中东和北非

以色列和被占领的巴勒斯坦领土

国际安全

新全球秩序方案中的中东、北非和土耳其

研究助理，中东安全