Burcu Ozcelik Reacts to Israel’s Election and its Significance

Comment by Burcu Ozcelik

The regional significance of Israel’s election extends beyond who forms the next government and will impact whether the political choices that follow give regional diplomacy room to actually work.

Israel's emerging electoral deadlock comes at a particularly sensitive moment for the Gulf as regional capitals, including Ankara and Islamabad, are pursuing diplomacy to contain tensions with Iran, while preparing for the possibility of renewed military confrontation.

During the inevitable coalition bargaining process that will now ensue, an immediate concern is whether Netanyahu invokes the Iranian threat to press political rivals into a unity government. His election messaging linked in no uncertain terms his continued leadership to confronting Tehran alongside Trump.

For Gulf states and the Mecca Pact signatories, the concern is that their efforts to manage tensions with Tehran could be overtaken by decisions in Israel and Washington. For Gulf states, another round of strikes will undermine minilataral and bilateral diplomacy tracks while exposing energy infrastructure and shipping to retaliation. Saudi Arabia is already confronting intensified Houthi attacks, while pursuing de-escalation with Iran alongside allies. Renewed US–Israeli strikes could complicate those efforts and intensify pressures on Riyadh’s campaign in Yemen, with consequences for Red Sea security.

Regional capitals will assess whether Israel’s election outcome creates space for a reset in their relations with the US, especially in the security domain. An Israeli campaign perceived as serving Netanyahu’s coalition bargaining would risk sharp opposition from states seeking to contain the conflict and prevent its deeper regionalisation.

Israel's coalition bargaining in the weeks and months ahead—and its influence on any decision to strike Iran, with or without US participation—will have far-reaching implications for Gulf security, freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb, and regional efforts to prevent renewed escalation.

The regional significance of Israel’s election therefore extends beyond who forms the next government and will impact whether the political choices that follow give regional diplomacy room to actually work.

Dr Burcu Özçelik is Senior Research Fellow and Head of the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Programme at RUSI.

Middle East and North Africa

Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territories

International Security

The Middle East, North Africa and Turkey in the New Global Order Programme

Senior Research Fellow, Middle East Security

Burcu Ozcelik 的评论

以色列大选的区域意义不仅限于谁将组建下一届政府，还将影响随后的政治选择是否能为区域外交提供真正发挥作用的空间。

以色列选举陷入僵局之际，海湾地区正处于一个特别敏感的时期，包括安卡拉和伊斯兰堡在内的地区各国首都正在寻求外交途径以遏制与伊朗的紧张关系，同时也在为可能再次发生的军事对抗做准备。

接下来必然会展开组阁谈判，而眼下最令人担忧的是内塔尼亚胡是否会援引伊朗的威胁来迫使政治对手组建联合政府。他的竞选策略明确地将他能否继续执政与和特朗普一起对抗德黑兰联系起来。

对于海湾国家和《麦加条约》签署国而言，他们担心以色列和华盛顿的决定可能会使他们为管控与德黑兰的紧张关系所做的努力付诸东流。对海湾国家来说，新一轮的空袭将破坏次要的双边外交渠道，同时使能源基础设施和航运面临报复风险。沙特阿拉伯目前正面临胡塞武装日益猛烈的袭击，同时正与盟友一道寻求与伊朗缓和局势。美以再次发动空袭可能会使这些努力更加复杂，并加大利雅得在也门军事行动的压力，进而影响红海安全。

各地区国家首都将评估以色列大选结果是否为重启与美国的关系，尤其是在安全领域，创造空间。如果以色列的竞选活动被视为服务于内塔尼亚胡组建联合政府的谈判，则可能招致那些力图遏制冲突、防止冲突进一步区域化的国家的强烈反对。

以色列在未来几周和几个月内与联盟进行的谈判，以及它对任何打击伊朗的决定（无论美国是否参与）的影响，都将对海湾安全、霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡的航行自由以及防止局势再次升级的地区努力产生深远的影响。

因此，以色列大选的区域意义不仅限于谁将组建下一届政府，还将影响随后的政治选择是否能为区域外交提供真正发挥作用的空间。

Burcu Özçelik 博士是皇家联合军种研究所 (RUSI) 的高级研究员兼中东、北非和土耳其项目负责人。

中东和北非

以色列和被占领的巴勒斯坦领土

国际安全

新全球秩序方案中的中东、北非和土耳其

中东安全高级研究员