Friends, foes and four awkward clashes: Who’s teaming up with whom in the Melaka polls?

KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 31 — Former rivals Umno and PAS are joining forces to contest the Melaka state election, while Pakatan Harapan (PH) and Bersatu are exploring an electoral understanding — despite preparing to fight each other in four constituencies.

The unusual political arrangements have set the stage for a contest marked by shifting alliances, strained relationships and unfinished electoral deals.

Barisan Nasional (BN) and Perikatan Nasional (PN) are hoping to repeat their successful cooperation in Negeri Sembilan, where they secured a two-thirds majority in August.

Their seat-sharing negotiations in Melaka have continued right up to nomination day, with MCA securing a fourth constituency following further discussions between the two coalitions.

PH, meanwhile, is seeking common ground with Bersatu even as the latter’s relationship with its PN partners, particularly PAS, continues to deteriorate.

With nominations taking place today ahead of polling on November 14, here is how the alliances are shaping up and what they could mean for Melaka.

BN-PN: United for Melaka

The clearest electoral arrangement in Melaka is between BN, led by Umno, and PN, with PAS playing a central role in the cooperation.

The partnership follows the August 1 Negeri Sembilan state election, where BN and PN agreed not to contest against each other, allowing supporters of either coalition to back a common candidate.

BN won 18 of the 36 seats, while PN secured seven, giving the two coalitions a combined 25 seats and a two-thirds majority in the state assembly. PH, which previously governed the state, was reduced to 11 seats.

The result marked the first electoral success for their cooperation, prompting both coalitions to extend the arrangement to Melaka.

The understanding has since taken shape under the name Muafakat Melaka, bringing together BN, PN and non-governmental organisations in an effort to consolidate support ahead of the election.

Under the seat-sharing arrangement, BN has announced 23 candidates, comprising 18 from Umno, four from MCA and one from MIC.

PN, meanwhile, has named five candidates — two each from PAS and Parti Wawasan Negara, and one from Gerakan.

The arrangement effectively puts Umno and PAS on the same electoral side, allowing both parties to avoid splitting the Malay vote by fielding competing candidates.

It also marks a shift from previous elections, when the two parties contested against each other despite their earlier cooperation under Muafakat Nasional.

For BN, the partnership allows it to retain a larger share of constituencies while benefiting from PAS’ support among conservative Malay voters. For PN, it offers a chance to contest without facing Umno candidates in the same seats.

PH-Bersatu: Allies or rivals?

On the other side, PH has been exploring an electoral understanding with Bersatu under what has been described as PH Plus, although both sides remain at odds over several constituencies.

The discussions emerged amid Bersatu’s deteriorating relationship with its PN partners, particularly PAS, following disagreements over leadership, internal decision-making and electoral cooperation.

Those tensions became more apparent during the Negeri Sembilan election, when Bersatu contested independently rather than joining PN’s seat-sharing arrangement with BN.

Although still associated with PN, Bersatu was excluded from the BN-PN electoral understanding and lost all 24 seats it contested, weakening its electoral position.

Against this backdrop, PH began exploring the possibility of working with Bersatu in Melaka.

On September 19, PH Melaka chairman Adly Zahari confirmed that negotiations were being held with parties sharing similar aspirations, including Bersatu, following a decision by the PH Presidential Council to explore wider cooperation.

PH election director Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari subsequently described PH Plus as an electoral understanding rather than a new political coalition, suggesting that any cooperation would be limited to elections rather than a permanent alliance.

Speculation about closer ties gained further attention after Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin and several opposition MPs signed a confidence and supply agreement (CSA) with the federal government on October 29, committing to support Budget 2027.

The agreement also provides for constituency development allocations for Bersatu MPs equivalent to those received by government backbenchers, alongside proposals for institutional reforms.

While the agreement was seen as a possible thaw in relations between Bersatu and the PH-led government, Muhyiddin stressed that it had nothing to do with an electoral pact for the Melaka polls.

Despite the talks and the CSA signing, Bersatu announced eight candidates on Thursday, including four in constituencies also being contested by PH.

The four seats are Klebang, Gadek, Ayer Keroh and Pengkalan Batu.

Bersatu will face PKR in Klebang, while its candidates will go up against DAP in Gadek, Ayer Keroh and Pengkalan Batu.

It will also face PN candidates in Ayer Keroh and Bemban, further highlighting divisions between the former allies.

Bersatu secretary-general Datuk Seri Mohamed Azmin Ali described the overlapping contests as healthy competition, saying each party had its own considerations when deciding which seats to contest.

He said Bersatu had decided to defend its seats in Sungai Udang and Bemban while targeting other constituencies where it believed it had a chance of winning.

Bersatu has also confirmed that it will use its own party logo in the election.

PH, meanwhile, has expanded its original allocation from 21 to 24 seats, with PKR contesting 10 and DAP and Amanah seven each.

The overlapping contests underline the limits of the proposed PH Plus arrangement, raising questions about how the two sides could reconcile their competing interests should their candidates win seats.

For now, PH and Bersatu appear to be exploring cooperation at a broader political level without a fully coordinated electoral pact in Melaka.

What is at stake in Melaka?

The last Melaka state election in 2021 saw BN secure a commanding victory, winning 21 of the 28 seats, while PH won five and PN two.

However, the state’s federal parliamentary representation paints a different picture.

Of the six parliamentary constituencies covering Melaka, PH and PN each hold three seats, while BN has none.

The contrast highlights the different levels of support enjoyed by the political groupings and the stakes involved in the coming contest.

For BN and PN, the election will test whether their cooperation can translate into stronger support at state level and replicate their success in Negeri Sembilan.

For PH, it presents an opportunity to regain ground after setbacks in recent state elections, while testing whether closer ties with Bersatu could improve its appeal among Malay voters.

Bersatu, meanwhile, faces the challenge of rebuilding its electoral fortunes after its poor showing in Negeri Sembilan, even as it navigates its strained relationship with PN and its tentative understanding with PH.

Analyst predicts commanding BN-PN victory

Political analyst and Nusantara Strategic Research Academy senior fellow Professor Azmi Hassan believes the BN-PN partnership is likely to secure an overwhelming victory, drawing comparisons with the recent elections in Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

He said Malay voters who had previously distanced themselves from PAS or Umno could return in greater numbers now that the two parties were no longer competing against each other.

“Malay voters who previously distanced themselves from PAS or Umno will now come out in droves to support this cooperation. Given that scenario, I think it will be an overwhelming victory for Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional,” he told Malay Mail .

Azmi pointed to voting patterns in Johor and, more notably, Negeri Sembilan, where there were indications that PAS supporters had backed Umno candidates in constituencies where the two parties were not competing against each other.

However, he questioned Bersatu’s decision to contest four constituencies against PH despite ongoing discussions between the two sides.

“It’s very odd that Bersatu remains adamant about contesting the four seats where Pakatan Harapan is also fielding candidates.”

Azmi suggested PH could be using the proposed cooperation to test whether Bersatu could help attract Malay voters to its candidates, particularly those from DAP.

“But again, I think Pakatan is testing the waters to see whether cooperation with Bersatu could help attract Malay voters to Pakatan candidates, particularly those from DAP.”

Ultimately, the Melaka election will test whether the BN-PN partnership can repeat its Negeri Sembilan success, while offering an indication of whether PH’s efforts to widen its electoral cooperation can help it regain ground among Malay voters.

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吉隆坡，10 月 31 日讯——昔日对手巫统和伊斯兰党联手参加马六甲州选举，而希望联盟（PH）和土著团结党正在探讨选举合作——尽管它们准备在四个选区展开角逐。

这种不寻常的政治安排，为一场联盟不断变化、关系紧张、选举协议尚未完成的竞争奠定了基础。

国民阵线（BN）和国民联盟（PN）希望在森美兰州重现他们成功的合作，他们在8月份的选举中获得了三分之二的多数席位。

他们在马六甲的席位分配谈判一直持续到提名日，经过两个联盟的进一步磋商，马华公会最终获得了第四个选区。

与此同时，尽管土著团结党与其国民联盟伙伴（特别是伊斯兰党）的关系持续恶化，希望联盟仍在寻求与土著团结党达成共识。

今天将进行提名，投票将于 11 月 14 日举行。以下是各联盟的形成情况以及它们对马六甲可能意味着什么。

国阵-国盟：团结一致，共克马六甲

马六甲最明确的选举安排是在巫统领导的国阵和国民联盟之间，伊斯兰党在其中扮演着核心角色。

此次合作是在 8 月 1 日森美兰州选举之后达成的，当时国阵和国盟同意不互相竞争，允许两个联盟的支持者支持共同的候选人。

国阵赢得36个席位中的18个，国民联盟获得7个，两党联盟共获得25个席位，在州议会中占据三分之二的多数席位。此前执政的希望联盟则仅获得11个席位。

这一结果标志着双方合作首次在选举中取得成功，促使两个联盟将合作安排扩展到马六甲。

该共识后来以“马六甲共识”（Muafakat Melaka）的名义形成，将国阵、国盟和非政府组织联合起来，努力在选举前巩固支持。

根据席位分配安排，国阵已宣布了 23 名候选人，其中 18 人来自巫统，4 人来自马华公会，1 人来自国大党。

与此同时，国民联盟提名了五名候选人——伊斯兰党和国家希望党各两名，民政党一名。

这种安排实际上让巫统和伊斯兰党站在同一选举阵营，使两党避免因推出竞争候选人而分散马来选票。

这也标志着与以往选举的不同，以往两党尽管曾在国民共识联盟（Muafakat Nasional）下合作，但最终还是相互竞争。

对国阵而言，此次合作使其能够保留更多选区，同时受益于伊斯兰党在保守马来选民中的支持。对国盟而言，这使其有机会在同一选区避免与巫统候选人竞争。

菲律宾-土著团结党：盟友还是对手？

另一方面，希望联盟一直在与土著团结党探讨选举合作，组建所谓的“希望联盟+”，尽管双方在几个选区仍然存在分歧。

在土著团结党与其国民联盟伙伴，特别是伊斯兰党之间，由于在领导层、内部决策和选举合作方面存在分歧，双方关系日益恶化，由此引发了这些讨论。

在森美兰州选举期间，这些紧张局势变得更加明显，当时土著团结党选择独立参选，而不是加入国民联盟与国阵的席位分享安排。

尽管土著团结党仍与国民联盟有联系，但它被排除在国阵-国民联盟的选举协议之外，并在其竞选的24个席位中全部落败，削弱了其选举地位。

在此背景下，PH开始探索与马六甲土著团结党合作的可能性。

9月19日，马六甲希望联盟主席阿德利·扎哈里证实，在希望联盟主席理事会决定探索更广泛的合作之后，该联盟正在与包括土著团结党在内的有类似愿望的各方进行谈判。

PH选举主任拿督斯里阿米鲁丁·沙里随后将PH Plus描述为一种选举谅解，而不是一个新的政治联盟，暗示任何合作都将仅限于选举，而不是永久联盟。

在土著团结党主席丹斯里慕尤丁和几位反对党议员于 10 月 29 日与联邦政府签署信任与支持协议 (CSA) 后，有关双方关系更加密切的猜测得到了进一步关注，该协议承诺支持 2027 年财政预算案。

该协议还规定，土著团结党议员将获得与政府后座议员同等的选区发展拨款，并提出了体制改革建议。

尽管该协议被视为土著团结党与希望联盟领导的政府之间关系可能出现缓和的迹象，但慕尤丁强调，这与马六甲选举的选举协议无关。

尽管进行了会谈并签署了 CSA 协议，土著团结党周四宣布了八名候选人，其中四名候选人所在的选区也是希望联盟（PH）的竞选选区。

四个议席分别是吉里望（Klebang）、加德（Gadek）、爱极乐（Ayer Keroh）和彭加兰峇都（Pengkalan Batu）。

土团党将在吉里望迎战公正党，而其候选人则将在加德、爱极乐和彭加兰峇都迎战行动党。

它还将在爱极乐和本班与国民联盟候选人展开角逐，进一步凸显了昔日盟友之间的分歧。

土著团结党秘书长拿督斯里阿兹敏阿里将重叠的竞选描述为良性竞争，并表示每个政党在决定竞选哪些席位时都有自己的考量。

他说，土著团结党已决定捍卫其在双溪乌当和本班的席位，同时将目标瞄准其他它认为有机会获胜的选区。

土著团结党也已确认将在选举中使用本党的标志。

与此同时，希望联盟（PH）已将其原先分配的席位从 21 个增加到 24 个，人民公正党（PKR）竞选 10 个席位，民主行动党（DAP）和诚信党（Amanah）各竞选 7 个席位。

重叠的竞选凸显了拟议的PH Plus安排的局限性，引发了人们对双方候选人如果赢得席位将如何协调彼此利益的问题。

目前看来，希望联盟和土著团结党似乎正在更广泛的政治层面上探索合作，但尚未在马六甲达成完全协调的选举协议。

马六甲究竟面临着什么？

在 2021 年的马六甲州选举中，国阵取得了压倒性胜利，赢得了 28 个席位中的 21 个，而希望联盟赢得了 5 个席位，国盟赢得了 2 个席位。

然而，该州在联邦议会的代表情况却呈现出不同的景象。

在覆盖马六甲的六个国会选区中，希望联盟和国盟各占三个席位，而国阵则一个席位也没有。

这种对比突显了各个政治团体所享有的不同程度的支持，以及即将到来的竞争的利害关系。

对于国阵和国盟来说，这次选举将检验他们的合作能否转化为州一级更强大的支持，并复制他们在森美兰州的成功。

对于希望联盟来说，这是在最近州选举遭遇挫折后重振旗鼓的机会，同时也是检验与土著团结党更紧密的联系能否提高其在马来选民中的吸引力的机会。

与此同时，土著团结党在森美兰州表现不佳后，面临着重建选举前景的挑战，同时还要应对与国民联盟的紧张关系以及与希望联盟的初步合作。

分析人士预测国阵-国盟将取得压倒性胜利

政治分析家兼努沙登加拉战略研究学院高级研究员阿兹米·哈桑教授认为，国阵-国盟联盟很可能取得压倒性胜利，并将其与最近柔佛州和森美兰州的选举进行了比较。

他表示，以前与伊斯兰党或巫统保持距离的马来选民，现在这两个政党不再相互竞争，可能会有更多人重新回到这两个政党的阵营。

“以前与伊斯兰党或巫统保持距离的马来选民现在会蜂拥而出支持这种合作。在这种情况下，我认为国阵和国民联盟将会取得压倒性胜利，”他告诉《马来邮报》。

阿兹米指出柔佛州，尤其是森美兰州的投票模式，有迹象表明，伊斯兰党的支持者在两党没有竞争的选区支持了巫统的候选人。

然而，他质疑土著团结党在双方仍在进行磋商的情况下，仍决定与希望联盟在四个选区展开竞争。

“土著团结党坚持要竞选希望联盟也推出候选人的四个席位，这非常奇怪。”

阿兹米认为，希望联盟可能正在利用拟议的合作来测试土著团结党能否帮助吸引马来选民支持其候选人，特别是民主行动党的候选人。

“但我认为，希望联盟正在试探水温，看看与土著团结党合作是否能帮助吸引马来选民支持希望联盟的候选人，特别是民主行动党的候选人。”

最终，马六甲州的选举将检验国阵-国盟联盟能否重现森美兰州的成功，同时也将表明希望联盟扩大选举合作的努力能否帮助其在马来选民中重新站稳脚跟。

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