Democratic midterm gains may fuel fresh trade uncertainty for Korea

Democratic gains in both chambers of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections could complicate Seoul’s $350 billion investment commitment and prompt President Donald Trump to intensify trade pressure on Korea. Experts said the agreement is unlikely to be overturned, and Congress is unlikely to stop Trump from using tariff powers delegated to the executive branch. They warned that Korea could face renewed threats of 25 percent tariffs on auto exports, while congressional scrutiny could delay or alter investment projects. Seoul would need to show progress on its commitments while ensuring projects remain commercially viable.

Section 232 and Section 301 of U.S. trade law provide the administration with legal grounds to impose tariffs, according to Jang Sang-sik of the Korea International Trade Association.

Seo Jung-kun said overriding a presidential veto of a bill requiring congressional approval for tariffs would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which he said Democrats were unlikely to reach.

Seo said progress on Korea’s investment commitments could give Seoul grounds to press Washington on issues including nuclear-powered submarines and the transfer of wartime operational control.

Jang said a Democratic-controlled Congress could request more documents, feasibility reviews and oversight, potentially changing business conditions or delaying project schedules.

Jang said nuclear power projects were unlikely to face significant changes because of bipartisan support, while the Alaska liquefied natural gas project could face greater scrutiny if pursued as a federal initiative.

Published Nov 4, 2026 3:57 pm KST

Updated Nov 4, 2026 4:14 pm KST

Trump could intensify tariff pressure despite limited congressional constraints

President Lee Jae Myung and U.S. President Donald Trump attend a welcoming ceremony ahead of their talks at the National Museum in Gyeongju, North Gyeongsang Province, Oct. 29, 2025. Yonhap

Democratic gains in both chambers of the U.S. Congress in the midterm elections could expose Korea to fresh trade uncertainty, as experts warn that while such a shift would do little to curb U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff powers, it could complicate the implementation of Seoul's investment commitments and prompt him to intensify trade pressure.

The $350 billion investment agreement between Seoul and Washington is unlikely to be overturned, as expanding U.S. manufacturing has bipartisan support. However, the political fallout from the Republican defeat could put pressure on Trump to demonstrate progress on his trade agenda, with Korea potentially facing renewed tariff threats, the experts said.

"The tools used to exert tariff pressure are unlikely to change," said Jang Sang-sik, head of trade trend analysis at the Korea International Trade Association, referring to Section 232 and Section 301 of the U.S. trade law, which provide the administration with legal grounds to impose tariffs.

"Congress has largely delegated these powers to the administration, allowing the executive branch to implement them through executive action.”

Seo Jung-kun, a political science professor at Kyung Hee University, also said congressional oversight should not be confused with the ability to halt executive policies.

“Looking at the first two years of the Trump administration, his tariff policy has largely been pursued independently of Congress," the professor said.

"Even if Congress passed a bill requiring the president to obtain congressional approval for tariffs, Trump would veto it. Overriding the veto would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers (which Democrats is unlikely to reach).”

However, the political consequences of a Democratic victory could create a different source of uncertainty for Korea.

The experts said Trump could become more aggressive in trade negotiations as his domestic political room for maneuver narrows, potentially pressing foreign countries harder for market access and using tariffs to revive U.S. manufacturing.

"The more the U.S. media create an atmosphere that Trump is finished and has become a lame-duck president, the more he will want to use the tariff policy he cares about most and takes pride in to demonstrate his authority and presence as president once again," Seo said. “And if Korea becomes a test case, it could put us in a very difficult position."

The professor cited the possibility of Trump imposing 25 percent tariffs on Korean auto exports, noting that such a move could carry political appeal in manufacturing-heavy states such as Michigan ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan speaks during a plenary session at the National Assembly in Seoul, Sept. 22, to brief parliament on the first investment project under Korea's investment commitment to the United States. Yonhap

Against this backdrop, experts said Seoul would need to demonstrate progress in implementing its $350 billion investment commitment while ensuring individual projects remain commercially viable.

“If we show progress on these commitments, it could give us grounds to press the U.S. on issues such as nuclear-powered submarines and the transfer of wartime operational control,” Seo said, adding that if Korea is seen as delaying its investment commitments, Trump could use that as a pretext to impose 25 percent tariffs on auto exports.

While the experts do not expect Democrats to block the investment projects, they warned that closer congressional scrutiny could complicate their implementation.

"It is an investment in the U.S.; building factories; creating jobs … There is no domestic political reason for a Democratic-controlled Congress to block these investments, nor does the federal legislature have the means to do so," Seo said.

Jang expects a Democratic-controlled Congress to increase requests for documents, feasibility reviews and oversight of investment projects, potentially changing business conditions or delaying schedules.

"That could mean changes in business conditions or delays in project schedules," he said, adding that the Korean government would need to adjust the timing of fund transfers accordingly.

The impact could vary across individual investment projects. Jang said nuclear power projects were unlikely to face significant changes, given bipartisan support for nuclear energy, while the Alaska liquefied natural gas project could face greater scrutiny if the Trump administration seeks to pursue it as a federal government initiative.

Min Jeong-hun, an American studies professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, said a Democratic-controlled Congress could take a tougher stance on Seoul's initiatives, but was unlikely to offer substantial support beyond its general commitment to the alliance.

"Congress may take a tougher line. Beyond general rhetoric about the alliance, I don't see Democrats offering much support or protection for the initiatives we are currently pursuing," Min said.

美国中期选举中民主党在国会两院的胜利可能会使首尔3500亿美元的投资承诺变得复杂，并促使特朗普总统加大对韩国的贸易压力。专家表示，该协议不太可能被推翻，国会也不太可能阻止特朗普动用授予行政部门的关税权力。他们警告说，韩国可能再次面临对汽车出口征收25%关税的威胁，而国会的审查可能会导致投资项目延期或变更。首尔需要在履行承诺方面取得进展，同时确保项目的商业可行性。

据韩国国际贸易协会的张相植称，美国贸易法第 232 条和第 301 条为政府征收关税提供了法律依据。

徐正根表示，要推翻总统对一项需要国会批准才能征收关税的法案的否决，需要在参众两院都获得三分之二的多数票，他认为民主党人不太可能达到这一目标。

徐表示，韩国在投资承诺方面取得的进展，可能会让首尔有理由就核动力潜艇和战时作战控制权移交等问题向华盛顿施压。

张表示，民主党控制的国会可能会要求提供更多文件、进行可行性审查和监督，这可能会改变商业环境或推迟项目进度。

张表示，由于两党支持，核电项目不太可能面临重大变化，而如果阿拉斯加液化天然气项目作为一项联邦计划推行，则可能会面临更严格的审查。

发布于2026年11月4日下午3:57（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年11月4日下午4:14（韩国标准时间）

尽管国会限制有限，特朗普仍有可能加大关税压力。

2025年10月29日，韩国总统李在明和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在庆尚北道庆州市国立博物馆出席会谈前的欢迎仪式。（韩联社）

美国国会两院民主党在中期选举中取得的胜利可能会使韩国面临新的贸易不确定性。专家警告说，虽然这种转变对遏制美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的关税权力作用不大，但可能会使首尔履行投资承诺变得更加复杂，并促使他加大贸易压力。

首尔和华盛顿之间价值3500亿美元的投资协议不太可能被推翻，因为扩大美国制造业规模得到了两党的支持。然而，专家表示，共和党败选带来的政治影响可能会迫使特朗普在贸易议程上取得进展，韩国可能面临新的关税威胁。

韩国国际贸易协会贸易趋势分析负责人张相植表示，“施加关税压力的工具不太可能改变”，他指的是美国贸易法第 232 条和第 301 条，这两条为美国政府征收关税提供了法律依据。

“国会已将这些权力基本下放给行政部门，允许行政部门通过行政命令来实施这些权力。”

庆熙大学政治学教授徐正坤也表示，国会的监督不应与阻止行政政策的能力混淆。

这位教授说：“纵观特朗普政府执政的头两年，他的关税政策在很大程度上是独立于国会之外推行的。”

“即便国会通过一项法案，要求总统在征收关税前必须获得国会批准，特朗普也会否决该法案。推翻总统否决需要参众两院三分之二的多数票（民主党不太可能达到这一目标）。”

然而，民主党获胜的政治后果可能会给韩国带来另一种不确定性。

专家表示，随着特朗普在国内政治回旋余地的缩小，他在贸易谈判中可能会变得更加强势，可能会更加严厉地向外国施压，要求其进入市场，并利用关税来振兴美国制造业。

“美国媒体越是营造特朗普已成过气总统、即将卸任的氛围，他就越会想方设法利用他最重视、最引以为傲的关税政策，再次展现他作为总统的权威和影响力，”徐说。“如果韩国成为试金石，我们可能会陷入非常艰难的境地。”

这位教授提到特朗普有可能对韩国汽车出口征收 25% 的关税，并指出，在 2028 年总统大选前，此举可能会在密歇根州等制造业重镇获得政治支持。

9月22日，韩国产业通商资源部长官金正冠在首尔国会全体会议上发言，向国会汇报韩国对美投资承诺下的首个投资项目。（韩联社）

在此背景下，专家表示，首尔需要在落实其 3500 亿美元的投资承诺方面取得进展，同时确保各个项目在商业上仍然可行。

“如果我们能在这些承诺方面取得进展，就能为我们提供理由，就核动力潜艇和战时作战指挥权移交等问题向美国施压，”徐先生说。他还补充道，如果韩国被认为拖延其投资承诺，特朗普可能会以此为借口对汽车出口征收 25% 的关税。

虽然专家们预计民主党人不会阻止这些投资项目，但他们警告说，国会更严格的审查可能会使这些项目的实施变得复杂。

“这是对美国的投资；建设工厂；创造就业机会……民主党控制的国会没有国内政治理由阻止这些投资，联邦立法机构也没有能力这样做，”徐说道。

张预计，民主党控制的国会将增加对投资项目的文件索取、可行性审查和监督，这可能会改变商业环境或延误进度。

“这可能意味着商业环境的变化或项目进度的延误，”他说道，并补充说，韩国政府需要相应地调整资金转移的时间。

不同投资项目受到的影响可能有所不同。张表示，鉴于核能获得两党支持，核电项目不太可能面临重大变化；而如果特朗普政府试图将阿拉斯加液化天然气项目作为联邦政府项目推进，该项目则可能面临更严格的审查。

韩国国立外交学院美国研究教授闵正勋表示，民主党控制的国会可能会对首尔的倡议采取更强硬的立场，但不太可能在对同盟的总体承诺之外提供实质性支持。

“国会可能会采取更强硬的立场。除了对联盟的泛泛之谈，我没看到民主党人对我们目前正在推进的各项举措提供多少支持或保护，”闵说道。