(News Focus) Democratic control of Congress could complicate S. Korea's nuclear submarines, Trump-Kim summit prospects: experts（新闻焦点）专家称，民主党掌控国会或将使韩国核潜艇问题和特金会前景复杂化。
WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- Democratic control of the U.S. Congress could mak...
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WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- Democratic control of the U.S. Congress could make it harder for South Korea to acquire nuclear-powered submarines and limit President Donald Trump's ability to reach a deal with North Korea, even as he may seek another summit with leader Kim Jong-un, according to experts Wednesday.
The assessments came after the Democratic Party scored a landslide victory in Tuesday's midterm elections, with the party poised to take control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, dealing a major political blow to Trump.
Andrew Yeo, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Democrats could be more reluctant than Republicans to support South Korea's efforts to acquire nuclear-powered submarines because of concerns about the spread of nuclear technology.
"Democrats may hold on to non-proliferation norms more strongly than Republicans, which may create obstacles to Lee's path to acquire nuclear powered subs," Yeo said, referring to South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.
Patrick Cronin, chair for Asia-Pacific security at the Hudson Institute, also warned that the submarine plans could face delays or opposition in Congress.
"Ambitious commitments, such as cooperation on nuclear-powered submarines, could face delays or obstruction, even as longstanding bipartisan support for core alliance commitments, including extended deterrence, remains comparatively resilient," Cronin said.
Robert Rapson, a former acting U.S. ambassador to South Korea, shared a similar view.
"Unclear to what extent, if at all, Democrats will be supportive of Trump promises of nuclear-powered subs and enrichment-reprocessing rights for Korea. NPT concerns still weigh heavily," Rapson said, referring to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The U.S. Congress is shown in this file photo taken on April 12, 2026. (Yonhap)
The election results could also affect South Korea's push to regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of its troops from the United States.
Yeo said Congress was already reluctant to set a fixed date for the OPCON transfer and that Democratic control could lead to further resistance to Seoul's proposed 2030-or-earlier timeline.
"Trump and Hegseth seem to be more open to OPCON transfer by 2030 than other U.S. policymakers, but a Democrat-controlled Congress may raise more questions and resist this move," he said, referring to U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Rapson said it remained unclear where Democrats stood on an early OPCON transfer.
On other bilateral issues, Yeo said the Republican election losses could affect expectations about how quickly Seoul moves ahead with its planned US$200 billion investment in the U.S., part of a bilateral trade deal signed last year.
Rapson said trade and investment agreements reached under pressure from Trump's tariffs could get a second look under Democratic lawmakers. "What that might look like exactly is to be determined."
On North Korea, Cronin said Trump could become more eager to pursue a major foreign policy achievement following the Republican losses, but stressed that the new political climate will impose constraints on his ability to reach a deal, such as offering sanctions relief to North Korea.
Trump, according to Rapson, could seek renewed talks with North Korea to strengthen his political legacy, but questioned whether Pyongyang would see much benefit in negotiating with a politically-weakened president.
"Congress will certainly preclude any efforts by Trump to cut a deal waiving sanctions against the North a la the recent Russia deal," Rapson said.
Scott Snyder, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of KEI, noted that a Democratic-controlled Congress could complicate negotiations with Pyongyang but "is unlikely to block a determined executive branch."
He also said North Korea might see greater advantages in dealing with Trump under the latest circumstances.
"For North Korean leaders, the prospect of dealing with a weakened American president may be moderately more enticing than it seemed before the midterms. The question will be whether Pyongyang views it as a unique window of opportunity or as unnecessary to its current strategic needs,' Snyder said.
odissy@yna.co.kr (END)
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(News Focus) Democratic control of Congress could complicate S. Korea's nuclear submarines, Trump-Kim summit prospects: experts
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华盛顿，11月4日（韩联社）——专家周三表示，民主党控制美国国会可能会使韩国更难获得核动力潜艇，并限制唐纳德·特朗普总统与朝鲜达成协议的能力，即便他可能寻求与朝鲜领导人金正恩再次举行峰会。
这些评估是在民主党在周二的中期选举中取得压倒性胜利之后做出的，该党有望控制众议院和参议院，这对特朗普造成了重大的政治打击。
布鲁金斯学会高级研究员安德鲁·叶奥表示，由于担心核技术的扩散，民主党人可能比共和党人更不愿意支持韩国获取核动力潜艇的努力。
“民主党人可能比共和党人更坚持不扩散规范，这可能会阻碍李在明获得核动力潜艇的道路，”叶说，他指的是韩国总统李在明。
哈德逊研究所亚太安全主席帕特里克·克罗宁也警告说，潜艇计划可能会在国会遭遇延误或反对。
克罗宁表示：“雄心勃勃的承诺，例如在核动力潜艇方面的合作，可能会面临延误或阻碍，尽管两党对核心联盟承诺（包括延伸威慑）的长期支持仍然相对稳定。”
美国前驻韩国代理大使罗伯特·拉普森也持类似观点。
拉普森说：“目前尚不清楚民主党人会在多大程度上支持特朗普关于向韩国提供核动力潜艇和浓缩铀后处理权的承诺。《不扩散核武器条约》的担忧仍然是他们关注的焦点。”
这张摄于2026年4月12日的资料照片显示的是美国国会。（韩联社）
选举结果也可能影响韩国从美国手中重新夺回其军队战时作战控制权（OPCON）的努力。
叶表示，国会本来就不愿为作战指挥权移交设定一个固定日期，而民主党控制国会可能会导致对首尔提出的 2030 年或更早的时间表的进一步抵制。
“特朗普和赫格塞斯似乎比其他美国决策者更倾向于在2030年前移交作战指挥权，但民主党控制的国会可能会提出更多质疑并抵制这一举措，”他指的是美国国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯。拉普森表示，目前尚不清楚民主党对提前移交作战指挥权持何立场。
在其他双边问题上，叶表示，共和党的选举失利可能会影响人们对首尔推进其计划在美国投资 2000 亿美元的速度的预期，这是去年签署的双边贸易协议的一部分。
拉普森表示，在特朗普关税政策的压力下达成的贸易和投资协议，在民主党议员的推动下可能会重新审视。“具体会是什么样子，还有待确定。”
关于朝鲜问题，克罗宁表示，共和党败选后，特朗普可能会更加渴望在外交政策上取得重大成就，但他强调，新的政治环境将限制他达成协议的能力，例如向朝鲜提供制裁豁免。
拉普森认为，特朗普可能会寻求与朝鲜重启对话，以巩固其政治遗产，但他质疑平壤是否会认为与一位政治地位削弱的总统谈判有什么好处。
拉普森说：“国会肯定会阻止特朗普试图达成一项类似最近俄罗斯协议那样的、豁免对朝鲜制裁的协议。”
朝鲜经济研究所（KEI）总裁兼首席执行官斯科特·斯奈德指出，民主党控制的国会可能会使与平壤的谈判变得复杂，但“不太可能阻止一个决心坚定的行政部门”。
他还表示，在当前形势下，朝鲜可能会发现与特朗普打交道有更大的优势。
斯奈德说：“对朝鲜领导人而言，与一位实力削弱的美国总统打交道的前景，可能比中期选举前更具吸引力。问题在于，平壤是将其视为一个独特的机遇窗口，还是认为这与其当前的战略需求无关。”
odissy@yna.co.kr (完)
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（新闻焦点）专家称，民主党掌控国会或将使韩国核潜艇问题和特金会前景复杂化。