Democratic sweep in US midterms dims prospects for Trump-Kim summit, analysts say

Democrats’ victories in both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections have made a Trump-Kim Jong-un summit less likely, analysts said Wednesday, though some expect Trump to pursue a meeting despite political pressure. A possible encounter had been floated around the Nov. 18-19 APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, but Kim’s lukewarm response to U.S. outreach had already cast doubt on it. Analysts also said a possible U.S.-China-Russia summit could reduce Trump’s incentive to meet Kim separately. Seoul’s role remains uncertain as President Lee Jae Myung seeks to use U.S. outreach to create an opening for inter-Korean dialogue.

Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un met three times during Trump’s first term, from 2017 to 2021.

Ahn Chan-il, director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies, said Democratic control of Congress could make it harder for Seoul to advance its peaceful coexistence policy.

Shin Beom-chul, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said Pyongyang was already unwilling to engage with Seoul, limiting the immediate effect of the U.S. midterm elections on Lee’s outreach.

Andrew Yeo, a professor of politics at the Catholic University of America, said the decision to meet would rest with Trump and Kim.

Fred Fleitz, vice chair of the America First Policy Institute, expected Trump to disregard Democratic criticism of a meeting with Kim.

Published Nov 4, 2026 4:16 pm KST

Updated Nov 4, 2026 4:31 pm KST

Some expect Trump to press ahead, but Seoul could be sidelined even if talks resume

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands ahead of their first summit at the Capella Hotel on Singapore’s Sentosa Island, June 12, 2018. Newsis

The Democrats’ victory in both the House and Senate in Tuesday's (local time) U.S. midterm elections has made a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un even less likely, analysts said Wednesday, though others argued that Trump’s tendency to shrug off political pressure means he may keep pursuing a meeting regardless.

A Trump-Kim meeting had been floated as a possible diplomatic surprise around the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, scheduled for Nov. 18 and 19 in Shenzhen, China.

The two leaders met three times during Trump’s first term from 2017 to 2021, but a fourth meeting was already in doubt before the elections, given Kim’s lukewarm response to renewed U.S. outreach. Some analysts said the prospect has also lost some of its appeal as a headline-grabbing event, with attention shifting to a possible U.S.-China-Russia summit in Shenzhen.

Ahn Chan-il, director of the World Institute for North Korea Studies, said Democratic control of Congress could “force Trump to rethink his approach to Pyongyang and also make it harder for Seoul to advance its own policy of peaceful coexistence.”

“I think a Democratic victory would put serious brakes on both Trump’s efforts to meet Kim and the South Korean government’s outreach to North Korea,” Ahn said.

Shin Beom-chul, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, said losing both chambers could “turn Trump into a lame duck earlier than expected.”

“Even if they meet for the sake of the event, there would be limits on what could follow,” Shin said. “Would Kim want to meet a weakened Trump?”

Shin noted the prospect of a U.S.-China-Russia summit in Shenzhen could matter more than the midterm result.

If Trump had a chance to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, he said, the U.S. president “would have less reason to pursue a separate encounter with the North Korean leader.”

People react as Democrats win seats in the House and Senate during the 2026 midterm elections in Washington, D.C., Tuesday (local time). UPI-Yonhap

Others argued that closer congressional scrutiny of his administration and fewer allies on Capitol Hill could lead Trump to spend more time on foreign policy and step up his outreach to Kim and Xi.

Andrew Yeo, a professor of politics at the Catholic University of America, said Democratic efforts to scale back Trump’s war in the Middle East could draw attention away from North Korea.

But he said the decision to meet would still rest with the two leaders.

“If Kim Jong-un states that he’s prepared to meet Trump, Trump will make that meeting happen,” Yeo said.

Fred Fleitz, a former chief of staff of the U.S. National Security Council and vice chair of the America First Policy Institute, said Democratic criticism of a Trump-Kim meeting could intensify, but he expected Trump to disregard it.

“I think Trump’s going to do what he wants to do,” Fleitz said.

Sean King, a senior vice president at Park Strategies, said pressure at home could make Trump more inclined to pursue personal diplomacy.

“Facing congressional investigations, and with fewer friends on Capitol Hill, President Trump is now sure to spend more time on foreign policy,” King said. “I suspect he’ll sadly go out of his way, even more than he already has, to court and placate the likes of Kim Jong-un and Xi Jinping.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, right, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shake hands across the Military Demarcation Line at Panmunjeom, June 30, 2019, in a photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central Television the following day. The meeting followed two formal summits in Singapore, June 12, 2018, and Hanoi, Feb. 27, 2019. Newsis

Seoul’s role remains uncertain

The election results come as President Lee Jae Myung has urged Trump to serve as a “peacemaker” on the Korean Peninsula while offering himself as a “pacemaker," hoping U.S. outreach can create an opening for inter-Korean dialogue.

Ahn said Seoul could “find itself sidelined” even if the summit goes ahead, with Washington seeking to retain control of its dealings with Pyongyang.

“We should be very careful about assuming that better relations between the U.S. and North Korea will improve our own relations with the North,” he said.

Shin said the U.S. midterm elections would have little immediate effect on Lee’s outreach because Pyongyang was already unwilling to engage with Seoul.

分析人士周三表示，民主党在周二的美国中期选举中赢得国会两院的控制权，降低了特朗普与金正恩举行峰会的可能性，尽管一些人预计，尽管面临政治压力，特朗普仍会寻求会晤。此前曾有传言称，两人可能在11月18日至19日于中国深圳举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会期间会面，但金正恩对美国示好的冷淡回应已使会晤前景蒙上阴影。分析人士还表示，如果美中俄峰会举行，可能会降低特朗普单独会见金正恩的动力。首尔方面的角色仍不明朗，因为韩国总统李在明正寻求利用美国的示好为朝韩对话创造机会。

在特朗普的第一任期（2017 年至 2021 年）期间，特朗普和金正恩会晤了三次。

世界朝鲜问题研究所所长安灿日表示，民主党控制国会可能会使首尔更难推进其和平共处政策。

世宗研究所高级研究员申范哲表示，平壤原本就不愿与首尔接触，这限制了美国中期选举对李明博对外接触的直接影响。

美国天主教大学政治学教授安德鲁·叶奥表示，是否会面将由特朗普和金正恩决定。

美国优先政策研究所副主席弗雷德·弗莱茨预计，特朗普会无视民主党人对与金正恩会晤的批评。

发布于2026年11月4日下午4:16（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年11月4日下午4:31（韩国标准时间）

一些人预计特朗普会继续推进谈判，但即便谈判重启，首尔方面也可能被边缘化。

2018年6月12日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（右）与朝鲜领导人金正恩在新加坡圣淘沙岛嘉佩乐酒店举行首次峰会前握手。（Newsis）

分析人士周三表示，民主党在周二（当地时间）美国中期选举中赢得众议院和参议院的胜利，使得美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和朝鲜领导人金正恩举行峰会的可能性更小。不过，也有人认为，特朗普倾向于无视政治压力，这意味着他可能会继续寻求举行会晤。

有传言称，特朗普与金正恩的会晤可能会在11月18日至19日于中国深圳举行的亚太经济合作组织（APEC）峰会期间带来外交上的意外惊喜。

在特朗普2017年至2021年的第一任期内，两位领导人会晤了三次，但鉴于金正恩对美国重启接触的冷淡回应，第四次会晤在大选前就已成未知数。一些分析人士表示，随着人们的注意力转向可能在深圳举行的美中俄峰会，此次会晤作为头条新闻的吸引力也有所下降。

世界朝鲜问题研究所所长安灿日表示，民主党控制国会可能会“迫使特朗普重新考虑他对平壤的态度，也会使首尔更难推进其和平共处政策”。

安表示：“我认为民主党的胜利将严重阻碍特朗普与金正恩会面的努力以及韩国政府与朝鲜的接触。”

世宗研究所高级研究员申范哲表示，如果特朗普失去参众两院的控制权，“可能会比预期更早地让他成为跛脚鸭”。

申东赫表示：“即使他们为了这次活动而会面，后续发展也会受到限制。金正恩会愿意会见一个实力削弱的特朗普吗？”

申指出，中美俄在深圳举行峰会的前景可能比中期选举结果更重要。

他说，如果特朗普有机会会见中国国家主席习近平和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京，那么这位美国总统“就没有太多理由再去单独与朝鲜领导人会面了”。

周二（当地时间），在华盛顿特区举行的2026年中期选举中，民主党在众议院和参议院赢得席位，民众对此表示庆祝。（UPI-Yonhap）

另一些人则认为，国会对其政府的更严格审查以及在国会山盟友的减少，可能会促使特朗普将更多时间用于外交政策，并加强与金正恩和习近平的接触。

美国天主教大学政治学教授安德鲁·叶奥表示，民主党为缩减特朗普在中东的战争规模所做的努力可能会转移人们对朝鲜的注意力。

但他表示，是否会面的决定权仍然掌握在两位领导人手中。

“如果金正恩表示他准备与特朗普会面，特朗普就会促成这次会面，”叶说。

美国国家安全委员会前幕僚长、美国优先政策研究所副主席弗雷德·弗莱茨表示，民主党人对特朗普与金正恩会晤的批评可能会加剧，但他预计特朗普会对此置之不理。

“我认为特朗普会做他想做的事，”弗莱茨说。

Park Strategies 高级副总裁肖恩·金表示，国内的压力可能会让特朗普更倾向于采取个人外交手段。

金说：“面对国会的调查，加上在国会山的朋友越来越少，特朗普总统现在肯定会把更多时间花在外交政策上。我怀疑，他很可能会不遗余力地去讨好和安抚像金正恩和习近平这样的人，甚至比他以往的做法还要努力。”

2019年6月30日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（右）与朝鲜领导人金正恩在板门店军事分界线附近握手。朝鲜中央电视台于次日发布了这张照片。此次会晤是在2018年6月12日新加坡峰会和2019年2月27日河内峰会之后举行的。

首尔的角色仍然不明朗

选举结果公布之际，韩国总统李在明敦促特朗普在朝鲜半岛扮演“和平缔造者”的角色，同时表示自己将担任“协调者”，希望美国的示好能够为朝韩对话创造机会。

安表示，即使峰会如期举行，首尔也可能“发现自己被边缘化”，因为华盛顿方面会寻求继续掌控与平壤的交往。

他说：“我们应该非常谨慎地认为，美朝关系的改善会改善我们自身与朝鲜的关系。”

申表示，美国中期选举不会对李在镕的对外接触产生直接影响，因为平壤本来就不愿意与首尔接触。