Korean won to strengthen against dollar following Democrats' midterm sweep

The Korean won is expected to strengthen against the U.S. dollar after Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, as political conflict could weigh on U.S. markets and the dollar. Experts said constraints on President Donald Trump’s economic agenda could ease pressure on Treasury yields. A weaker dollar could reduce Korea’s import costs, but a stronger won could hurt exporters. Over the longer term, fading momentum in semiconductor exports could reverse the won’s recent gains.

The monthly average won-dollar rate fell from 1,527.95 won per dollar in June to 1,335.70 won in October, according to the Bank of Korea.

Shin Se-don, an economics professor at Sookmyung Women’s University, said concerns about excessive AI investment had already pressured technology stocks, and political turmoil could weigh further on U.S. equities.

Kim Dae-jong, a business administration professor at Sejong University, said a stronger won could lower the cost of importing crude oil and raw materials, easing pressure on energy and food prices.

Kim said strong exports of memory semiconductors used in AI infrastructure had recently brought dollar inflows into Korea and supported the won.

Published Nov 4, 2026 3:54 pm KST

Updated Nov 4, 2026 4:26 pm KST

Democratic control of US Congress raises prospect of weaker dollar, experts say

Stacks of new 50,000 won banknotes sit at the Bank of Korea’s currency storage facility in central Seoul, Sept. 30, 2025. Joint Press Corps

The Korean won is expected to strengthen against the U.S. dollar after Democrats swept both chambers of Congress in the U.S. midterm elections, as political tensions in Washington and a potential sell-off in U.S. equities could weigh on the dollar, experts said Wednesday.

Democratic control of Congress is expected to complicate U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to advance his economic agenda, including tax cuts and expanded government spending, while giving lawmakers greater power to scrutinize his administration's policies.

The prospect of a prolonged standoff between the White House and Congress could unsettle investors and undermine confidence in U.S. financial markets, said Shin Se-don, an economics professor at Sookmyung Women's University.

"A fierce confrontation between Congress and the Trump administration will be inevitable. Trump's economic policy initiatives could face setbacks as Democrats step up opposition to the administration's policies, potentially slowing growth across the broader U.S. economy," Shin said.

The political fallout could spill over into financial markets, particularly U.S. technology stocks tied to artificial intelligence (AI) and digital infrastructure. Shin said concerns over excessive investment in AI had already put technology stocks under pressure, and that political turmoil could further weigh on the broader U.S. stock market.

"Market correction would make U.S. financial assets less attractive to investors. A slowdown in investment could weaken the dollar and give the Korean won room to further appreciate," the professor said.

Shin also noted that the won-dollar exchange rate could be influenced more heavily by domestic factors, including Korea's current account balance and exporters' dollar selling.

Exchange rates are displayed at a currency exchange booth at Incheon International Airport's Terminal 2, Oct. 27. Yonhap

The won has strengthened in recent months, with the won-dollar exchange rate falling from the 1,500 won range in June to the 1,300 won range in October.

The monthly average rate declined from 1,527.95 won per dollar in June to 1,488.92 won in July, 1,404.35 won in August, 1,358.75 won in September and 1,335.70 won in October, according to the Bank of Korea.

Kim Dae-jong, a professor of business administration at Sejong University, also expects the won to strengthen further in the near term following the U.S. midterm results, citing constraints on the Trump administration's economic policies.

"With Democrats controlling Congress, it will be harder for the Trump administration to borrow heavily to finance government spending or push through further tax cuts," Kim said. "That could ease pressure on U.S. Treasury yields and the won-dollar exchange rate."

A weaker dollar would lower Korea's import costs for crude oil and raw materials, helping ease inflationary pressure on energy and food prices, he said. But the stronger won could hurt Korean exporters by reducing the value of their dollar-denominated earnings when converted into won.

Kim, however, warned that the won could reverse course and weaken over the longer term if the momentum in the semiconductor export boom fades.

In recent months, strong chip exports, particularly memory semiconductors used in AI infrastructure, have been a major source of dollar inflows and helped support the won.

"In the longer term, a potential loss of momentum in the Trump administration's AI support policies under a Democratic-controlled Congress could dampen global investment sentiment toward AI and semiconductor markets, ultimately weighing on Korea's chip exports," Kim said.

"A slowdown in the semiconductor boom could curb Korea's export growth and reduce dollar inflows, potentially reversing the won's recent appreciation trend."

由于民主党在美国中期选举中赢得国会两院的控制权，预计韩元兑美元汇率将走强，因为政治冲突可能对美国市场和美元构成压力。专家表示，特朗普总统经济议程受到限制可能会缓解美国国债收益率的压力。美元走弱可能会降低韩国的进口成本，但韩元走强可能会损害韩国出口商的利益。从长远来看，半导体出口势头减弱可能会逆转韩元近期的涨幅。

据韩国银行数据显示，韩元兑美元月均汇率从6月份的1美元兑1527.95韩元降至10月份的1美元兑1335.70韩元。

淑明女子大学经济学教授申世敦表示，对人工智能投资过高的担忧已经给科技股带来了压力，而政治动荡可能会进一步拖累美国股市。

世宗大学工商管理教授金大钟表示，韩元走强可以降低原油和原材料的进口成本，从而缓解能源和食品价格的压力。

金正恩表示，近期人工智能基础设施中使用的存储半导体强劲出口，为韩国带来了美元流入，支撑了韩元汇率。

发布于2026年11月4日下午3:54（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年11月4日下午4:26（韩国标准时间）

专家称，民主党掌控美国国会增加了美元走软的可能性。

2025年9月30日，成捆的新版5万韩元纸币存放在首尔市中心韩国银行的货币仓库中。（联合新闻社）

专家周三表示，由于华盛顿的政治紧张局势以及美国股市可能出现的抛售潮可能会对美元构成压力，预计在民主党赢得美国中期选举国会两院之后，韩元兑美元汇率将走强。

预计民主党对国会的控制将使美国总统唐纳德·特朗普推进其经济议程（包括减税和扩大政府支出）的努力变得更加复杂，同时也将赋予立法者更大的权力来审查其政府的政策。

淑明女子大学经济学教授申世敦表示，白宫与国会之间长期对峙的前景可能会令投资者感到不安，并削弱人们对美国金融市场的信心。

“国会与特朗普政府之间的激烈对抗不可避免。随着民主党人加大对政府政策的反对力度，特朗普的经济政策举措可能会遭遇挫折，并有可能减缓美国整体经济增长，”申说道。

政治动荡的影响可能会波及金融市场，尤其是与人工智能（AI）和数字基础设施相关的美国科技股。申表示，对人工智能领域过度投资的担忧已经给科技股带来压力，而政治动荡可能会进一步拖累美国股市整体走势。

“市场调整会降低美国金融资产对投资者的吸引力。投资放缓可能会削弱美元，并为韩元进一步升值提供空间，”这位教授说。

申先生还指出，韩元兑美元汇率可能更多地受到国内因素的影响，包括韩国的经常账户余额和出口商的美元抛售。

10月27日，仁川国际机场2号航站楼外币兑换处展示汇率。（韩联社）

近几个月来，韩元走强，韩元兑美元汇率从6月份的1500韩元左右跌至10月份的1300韩元左右。

根据韩国银行的数据，韩元兑美元的月平均汇率从6月份的1527.95韩元降至7月份的1488.92韩元、8月份的1404.35韩元、9月份的1358.75韩元和10月份的1335.70韩元。

世宗大学工商管理教授金大钟也预计，受美国中期选举结果的影响，韩元在短期内将进一步走强，理由是特朗普政府的经济政策受到限制。

金表示：“民主党掌控国会后，特朗普政府将更难大量举债来为政府支出融资或推进进一步减税。这可能会缓解美国国债收益率和韩元兑美元汇率的压力。”

他表示，美元走软将降低韩国原油和原材料的进口成本，有助于缓解能源和食品价格的通胀压力。但韩元走强可能会降低韩国出口商以美元计价的收入兑换成韩元后的实际价值，从而损害他们的利益。

然而，金正恩警告说，如果半导体出口繁荣的势头减弱，韩元可能会逆转走势，并在长期内走弱。

近几个月来，强劲的芯片出口，特别是用于人工智能基础设施的存储半导体，一直是美元流入的主要来源，并有助于支撑韩元。

金表示：“从长远来看，在民主党控制的国会下，特朗普政府的人工智能支持政策可能会失去动力，这可能会削弱全球对人工智能和半导体市场的投资信心，最终对韩国的芯片出口造成压力。”

“半导体行业的繁荣放缓可能会抑制韩国的出口增长，减少美元流入，从而有可能逆转韩元近期的升值趋势。”