British-led force to use AI in tracking Russia’s shadow fleet

PARIS — The U.K.-led Joint Expeditionary Force, a military partnership of 10 northern European countries, has activated an AI-powered system to track potential threats to undersea infrastructure and monitor the so-called Russian shadow fleet, consisting of hundreds of often poorly maintained vessels used to circumvent sanctions and possibly for spying and sabotage.

The operation, dubbed Nordic Warden, was activated last week, the U.K. said in a statement on Monday. The expeditionary force will uses artificial intelligence and data from sources including the Automatic Identification System used for ship positioning to calculate the risk of every vessel entering “areas of interest,” according to the government.

Finland last month seized a Russia-linked vessel called Eagle S suspected of having dragged its anchor for nearly 100 kilometers in the Baltic Sea, rupturing the Estlink 2 power cable between Finland and Estonia. That follows damage to two fiber-optic cables in the Baltic in November, potentially linked to anchor dragging by a Chinese-flagged vessel, a similar incident in 2023, and underwater explosions that damaged the Nord Stream gas pipeline in 2022.

“Russian aggression is not simply confined to Ukraine,” U.K. Secretary of State for Defence John Healey told parliament in response to questions on Monday. “We’re deeply concerned about the damage and sabotage to undersea cables.”

Some military analysts, such as Anders Puck Nielsen at the Royal Danish Defence College, have suggested Russia may step up sabotage efforts and hybrid warfare as it faces growing losses and difficulties on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Vessels identified as being part of Russia’s shadow fleet have been registered into the system so they can be closely monitored when approaching key areas of interest, the U.K. said. If the system determines a potential risk, the expeditionary force will monitor a suspicious vessel in real time and send out warnings to JEF partner countries and NATO allies.

The JEF is monitoring 22 areas of interest including parts of the English Channel, the North Sea, the Kattegat and the Baltic Sea from its operational headquarters in Northwood in northwest London, the government said.

Nordic Warden will help protect against “both deliberate acts of sabotage as well as cases of extreme negligence which we have seen cause damage to underwater cables,” Healey said in the statement. He said Nordic Warden, which was first trialed during the summer of 2024, allows for monitoring of large sea areas with a comparatively small number of resources.

The shadow fleet was estimated to include about 591 tankers operating in the Russian oil trade, according to data compiled by S&P Global in April, up 33% from a March 2023 estimate.

The U.K. has sanctioned 93 oil tankers used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to “soften the blow of sanctions and bankroll his illegal war in Ukraine,” the government said. The U.K., Denmark, Sweden, Poland, Finland and Estonia last month agreed to request proof of insurance from suspected shadow vessels traveling the Baltic route.

The JEF is a high-readiness force that was established in 2014 and which today has 10 members, including all five Nordic countries, the three Baltic States, as well as the Netherlands and the U.K.

Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.

巴黎——由英国领导的联合远征军（一个由 10 个北欧国家组成的军事伙伴关系）已启用人工智能系统，以追踪对海底基础设施的潜在威胁，并监控所谓的俄罗斯影子舰队。该舰队由数百艘维护状况不佳的船只组成，这些船只被用于规避制裁，并可能用于间谍活动和破坏活动。

英国周一发表声明称，代号为“北欧守卫者”的行动已于上周启动。据英国政府称，这支远征部队将利用人工智能和包括船舶自动识别系统在内的各种数据来源，来计算每艘船只进入“关注区域”的风险。

芬兰上个月扣押了一艘名为“鹰S”号的与俄罗斯有关联的船只，该船涉嫌在波罗的海拖锚近100公里，导致连接芬兰和爱沙尼亚的Estlink 2号电力电缆断裂。此前，波罗的海的两条光纤电缆在去年11月遭到破坏，这可能与一艘悬挂中国国旗的船只拖锚有关；2023年也发生过类似事件；2022年，北溪天然气管道也因水下爆炸而受损。

英国国防大臣约翰·希利周一在议会回答质询时表示：“俄罗斯的侵略行为并非仅限于乌克兰。我们对海底电缆遭到破坏和蓄意破坏深表关切。”

一些军事分析人士，例如丹麦皇家国防学院的安德斯·帕克·尼尔森，认为随着俄罗斯在乌克兰战场上遭受越来越大的损失和困难，俄罗斯可能会加强破坏活动和混合战争。

英国方面表示，已被认定为俄罗斯影子舰队成员的船只已登记入库，以便在它们接近重点区域时进行密切监控。如果系统判定存在潜在风险，远征部队将实时监控可疑船只，并向联合远征部队伙伴国和北约盟国发出警告。

英国政府表示，联合远征部队（JEF）正在监测22个重点区域，包括英吉利海峡、北海、卡特加特海峡和波罗的海的部分地区，其行动总部设在伦敦西北部的诺斯伍德。

希利在声明中表示，“北欧守护者”系统将有助于防范“蓄意破坏行为以及我们曾目睹的因极端疏忽而导致的海底电缆损坏”。他指出，“北欧守护者”系统于2024年夏季首次试运行，能够以相对较少的资源监测大片海域。

根据标普全球4月份汇编的数据，据估计，在俄罗斯石油贸易中运营的影子船队约有591艘油轮，比2023年3月的估计值增长了33%。

英国政府表示，已对93艘被俄罗斯总统普京用于“减轻制裁冲击并为其在乌克兰的非法战争提供资金”的油轮实施制裁。上个月，英国、丹麦、瑞典、波兰、芬兰和爱沙尼亚同意要求涉嫌在波罗的海航线航行的“影子船”提供保险证明。

联合远征军是一支高战备部队，成立于2014年，目前拥有10个成员国，包括所有五个北欧国家、三个波罗的海国家以及荷兰和英国。

鲁迪·鲁伊滕贝格是《防务新闻》的欧洲记者。他的职业生涯始于彭博新闻社，拥有报道科技、大宗商品市场和政治方面的经验。