What to expect from Friday’s jobs report – and AI in the future

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The August jobs report is due out on Friday morning, and economists are expecting that employers added 65,000 jobs last month and the unemployment rate inched back up to 4.2%.

US employment is likely to rebound after the surprise in July , when the economy unexpectedly lost an estimated 23,000 jobs, and the jobless rate dropped to 4.1% as people exited the labor market.

Looking through the monthly swings – and there’s been a fair share of them recently – the underlying story is expected to stay the same: It remains a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.

The stasis and the tepid job growth may not show it, but this labor market is in the throes of a major transformation as Baby Boomers retire, net immigration slows, AI advances and exogenous shocks ripple through the economy.

In an unintentionally Dickensian fashion, a recent batch of BLS reports provided some deeper context as to how the labor market is being reshaped. These reports featured employment data of the past, the present, and the jobs market yet to come (complete with projections of AI’s future imprint on industries).

Here’s a snapshot of those findings (not in chronological order, because AI’s top of mind these days; plus, my colleague made a cool interactive graphic for you).

Every year, the BLS pulls out its crystal ball – a highly calibrated and deeply scientific and incredibly robust crystal ball – to map out how the labor market could evolve 10 years into the future.

From 2025 to 2035, the US economy is projected to add 5.9 million jobs, a 3.5% increase – or, roughly, 49,200 jobs per month, the BLS reported last week.

Alongside the latest projections, the agency released a database that categorized occupations based on their theoretical and observed exposure to AI.

The exposure categories aren’t meant to be a true forecast of employment growth or decline but instead are meant to provide insight that could be helpful in career decisions. ( You can read more on the BLS’ methodology here ).

You can explore the data below:

Last year’s job growth was one of the weakest on record, and fresh (and more comprehensive) data shows that employment growth was likely even more listless than previously thought.

The US economy added 79,000 fewer jobs than initially estimated between April 2025 and March 2026, the BLS reported last week in a preliminary release of its annual benchmarking, where the agency squares data from monthly surveys with quarterly unemployment insurance tax filings to gain a near-complete employment count.

If these estimates hold (the final revision will be released early next year), it will shrink job growth during that period to 194,000 from 273,000, or roughly 16,000 jobs per month versus nearly 23,000 jobs per month.

So far this year, job growth is running at a monthly average of just under 61,000 jobs per month. That’s about half of what the economy previously averaged in 2024 or in the 80 years before the pandemic.

Hiring has been stifled in part by high uncertainty, high interest rates, high inflation and volatile policy shifts and geopolitical developments.

“These drivers that are underlying employers’ hesitance to hire – both inflation as well as uncertainty – they are going to take a long time to ease,” Noah Yosif, chief economist at the American Staffing Association, told CNN. “What employers are really looking for is their cost of business to come down and then to have more certainty.”

But the economy also doesn’t need to add as many jobs as it once did.

“We’re continuing to see lower labor supply due to things like lower immigration, lower birth rates, increased retirement – and so that’s going to keep the labor market broadly in balance,” he said.

July’s estimated job losses were surprising, but they shouldn’t be cause for alarm, several economists noted in their commentary this week.

The decline was “almost certainly a quirk of seasonal adjustments,” wrote Dean Baker, senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research. He noted an estimated 49,600 downswing in local government education jobs that likely was the result of school districts adjusting the timing of summer breaks.

Employment is expected to rebound at local schools as well as in the leisure and hospitality sector; however, those gains could be offset by losses tied to the Trump administration’s termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitian workers, wrote EY-Parthenon economists Gregory Daco and Lydia Boussour.

“Beneath the volatility, job growth remains soft but stable,” they noted.

The labor market seemingly is on solid footing, unemployment is low, job cut announcements are running 40% below this time last year, and wage growth isn’t considered to be a source of inflation. However, it’s a labor market that’s doing just fine for the economy but doesn’t feel great for many workers or job seekers, Yosif said.

“For the better part of three years, 94% of jobs have been created within just three sectors: healthcare, leisure and hospitality, and (state and local) government,” Yosif said. “So, while folks like (Federal Reserve Chairman) Kevin Warsh say that the labor market is broadly in balance, that really doesn’t connect with the options available to many job seekers today.”

The BLS’ latest labor turnover data, released Tuesday, showed that hiring activity remained muted despite an uptick in job postings, an indication that employers remain cautious.

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And, separate data released Thursday shows that the “low-fire” descriptor is holding firm.

More US businesses announced job cuts last month than they did in July. But at 52,881, that’s the lowest August total since 2022, new data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed. Jobless claims continue to remain at low levels: They were at 206,000 last week, Labor Department data shows.

Healthcare is expected to continue to drive August’s job gains. That was indeed the case in ADP’s latest monthly private-sector employment report released Wednesday.

The payroll giant noted that education and health services added 45,000 jobs last month, offsetting losses in other sectors to leave a net gain of 38,000 jobs. ADP on Wednesday also launched an interactive pay database and started reporting base pay data (which excludes bonuses, commissions, tips and other earnings).

Overall base pay slowed to 3.2%, it held at 3% for job-stayers and cooled to 4.7% for job-changers.

“There is a cost to a low-hire, low-fire labor market, because one of the ways that workers outrun too-high inflation is by switching jobs,” said Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist. “If the premium for the opportunity to job-switch isn’t present, it’s going to be harder for workers overall to keep up with higher inflation.”

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8 月份的就业报告将于周五上午公布，经济学家预计上个月雇主新增了 65,000 个工作岗位，失业率小幅回升至 4.2%。

美国就业市场在7月份意外下滑后可能会出现反弹。当时，美国经济意外损失了约23000个工作岗位，失业率降至4.1%，因为人们退出了劳动力市场。

从每月的波动来看——最近波动幅度相当大——其基本面预计仍将保持不变：劳动力市场仍然是“低招聘、低解雇”的局面。

尽管就业市场停滞不前，增长乏力，但随着婴儿潮一代退休、净移民速度放缓、人工智能发展以及外生冲击波及经济，劳动力市场正经历着一场重大变革。

最近美国劳工统计局发布的一系列报告，以一种无意间颇具狄更斯笔下风格的方式，为我们深入了解劳动力市场正在发生的重塑提供了更深层次的背景信息。这些报告包含了过去、现在以及未来就业市场的数据（并预测了人工智能未来对各行业的影响）。

以下是这些发现的概览（并非按时间顺序排列，因为人工智能是最近的热门话题；此外，我的同事还为您制作了一个很酷的交互式图表）。

每年，美国劳工统计局都会拿出它的水晶球——一个高度校准、科学严谨且极其可靠的水晶球——来描绘未来 10 年劳动力市场的发展趋势。

美国劳工统计局上周报告称，从 2025 年到 2035 年，美国经济预计将新增 590 万个就业岗位，增幅为 3.5%，即每月约 49200 个就业岗位。

除了最新的预测之外，该机构还发布了一个数据库，根据职业在理论上和实际接触人工智能的程度对其进行了分类。

这些风险敞口类别并非旨在准确预测就业增长或下降趋势，而是旨在提供有助于职业决策的参考信息。（您可以在这里阅读更多关于美国劳工统计局方法论的信息）。

您可以浏览以下数据：

去年的就业增长是历史最疲软的时期之一，而最新（且更全面）的数据显示，就业增长可能比之前认为的还要低迷。

美国劳工统计局上周在其年度基准测试的初步报告中指出，2025 年 4 月至 2026 年 3 月期间，美国经济新增就业岗位比最初估计的少了 79,000 个。该机构将每月调查数据与季度失业保险税申报数据进行比对，以获得接近完整的就业统计数据。

如果这些估计成立（最终修订版将于明年初发布），那么在此期间的就业增长将从 273,000 个减少到 194,000 个，即每月约 16,000 个就业岗位，而此前为每月近 23,000 个就业岗位。

今年迄今为止，每月平均新增就业岗位略低于6.1万个。这大约是此前预测的2024年或疫情前80年平均水平的一半。

招聘受到高度不确定性、高利率、高通胀以及动荡的政策变化和地缘政治发展等因素的抑制。

美国人力资源协会首席经济学家诺亚·约瑟夫告诉CNN：“导致雇主不愿招聘的根本原因——通货膨胀和不确定性——需要很长时间才能缓解。雇主真正希望的是降低运营成本，并获得更大的确定性。”

但经济也不需要像以前那样增加那么多就业岗位。

他说：“由于移民减少、出生率下降、退休人数增加等原因，我们持续看到劳动力供应减少——因此这将使劳动力市场总体上保持平衡。”

本周，几位经济学家在评论中指出，7 月份的预计失业人数令人惊讶，但这不应该引起恐慌。

经济与政策研究中心高级经济学家迪恩·贝克写道，这一下降“几乎可以肯定是季节性调整造成的”。他指出，地方政府教育岗位估计减少了49600个，这很可能是学区调整暑假时间的结果。

安永-帕特农经济学家格雷戈里·达科和莉迪亚·布苏尔写道，预计当地学校以及休闲和酒店行业的就业将会反弹；然而，这些增长可能会被特朗普政府终止海地工人临时保护身份所带来的损失所抵消。

他们指出：“尽管市场波动，但就业增长依然温和但稳定。”

劳动力市场看似稳健，失业率低，裁员公告数量比去年同期下降了40%，工资增长也不被认为是通胀的来源。然而，约瑟夫表示，虽然这样的劳动力市场对整体经济来说运行良好，但对许多劳动者或求职者而言却并不乐观。

约瑟夫说：“在过去近三年里，94%的新增就业岗位都集中在三个行业：医疗保健、休闲和酒店业以及（州和地方）政府部门。因此，尽管像（美联储主席）凯文·沃什这样的人声称劳动力市场总体上处于平衡状态，但这与如今许多求职者面临的实际情况并不相符。”

美国劳工统计局周二发布的最新劳动力流动数据显示，尽管招聘信息有所增加，但招聘活动依然低迷，这表明雇主仍然保持谨慎。

JGI/Tom Grill/Tetra images RF/Getty Images

此外，周四公布的另一组数据显示，“低火力”这一描述仍然站得住脚。

上个月宣布裁员的美国企业数量超过了7月份。但Challenger, Gray & Christmas的最新数据显示，8月份的裁员总数为52,881人，是自2022年以来的最低水平。劳工部数据显示，失业救济申请人数继续保持在较低水平：上周为20.6万人。

预计医疗保健行业将继续推动8月份的就业增长。ADP周三发布的最新月度私营部门就业报告也证实了这一点。

这家薪资服务巨头指出，上个月教育和医疗服务行业新增就业岗位4.5万个，抵消了其他行业的就业岗位减少，最终净增就业岗位3.8万个。ADP周三还推出了一个交互式薪酬数据库，并开始报告基本工资数据（不包括奖金、佣金、小费和其他收入）。

总体基本工资增速放缓至 3.2%，留任员工基本工资增速维持在 3%，跳槽员工基本工资增速放缓至 4.7%。

ADP首席经济学家内拉·理查森表示：“低招聘、低解雇的劳动力市场是有代价的，因为工人应对过高通胀的一种方式就是跳槽。如果跳槽的机会没有溢价，那么工人整体上就更难应对更高的通胀。”