Russia forced to ‘sacrifice quality for quantity’ in war with Ukraine

MILAN — Despite losing on average hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery systems each month, Russia has been able to replenish its inventory by regenerating thousands of stored vehicles in 2023 — an attrition rate experts expect Moscow could handle for several more year.

Last year, Russia reactivated from storage at least 1,180-1,280 main battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, according to “ The Military Balance 2024 ″ report unveiled Tuesday by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank.

The report estimates that since February 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine , Moscow’s combat vehicle losses have neared 8,800, of which more than 3,000 were tanks.

“To put that into perspective, Russia’s tank battlefield losses are greater than the number it had when it launched its offensive against Ukraine in 2022,” Bastian Giegerich, the director of IISS, said during an online event held Feb. 13.

In an article published by the think tank on Feb. 12, defense research analysts Yohann Michel and Michael Gjerstad found commercially available imagery shows Russia possesses a variety of refurbishment facilities. These include 10 central tank reserve bases, at least 37 mixed equipment and armaments storage bases, and a minimum of 12 artillery storage centers.

“It is our assessment, therefore, that Russia will be able to sustain its assault on Ukraine at current attrition rates for another 2-3 years, and maybe even longer,” they wrote.

However, Giegerich noted the Kremlin’s strategy of relying on refurbished and stored legacy equipment — which is often quite old — comes at a cost.

“The vehicles that emerge from Russian production facilities are in most cases not new. In doing so, the country has to sacrifice quality for quantity,” Giegerich said.

The Russian military has also struggled in recruitment efforts.

“Persistently high casualty rates have kept most units below establishment strength. Shortages of replacement officers and the limited training time allotted to newly mobilised personnel significantly hampered the combat effectiveness of many units,” the new report found. “Bullish statements by government and industry officials about recruitment and equipment production to support forces deployed in Ukraine in 2023 appeared to belie reality.”

“Nonetheless, personnel numbers of existing formations and units were partially replenished, and a number of new wartime regiments were established through limited mobilisation efforts conducted in late 2022, coupled with a variety of ongoing recruitment efforts,” the think tank added.

Indeed, Ukrainian intercepts published last fall by Reuters show Russian conscripts complaining about poor training, heavy losses and mediocre equipment.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——尽管俄罗斯平均每月损失数百辆装甲车和火炮系统，但到 2023 年，俄罗斯已能够通过修复数千辆储存的车辆来补充其库存——专家预计，莫斯科可以应对这种损耗率长达数年。

根据总部位于伦敦的国际战略研究所周二发布的《2024 年军事平衡》报告，去年俄罗斯从封存状态中重新启用了至少 1180 至 1280 辆主战坦克和约 2470 辆步兵战车和装甲运兵车。

报告估计，自 2022 年 2 月俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰以来，莫斯科的作战车辆损失已接近 8800 辆，其中坦克损失超过 3000 辆。

“从这个角度来看，俄罗斯坦克战场的损失比它在 2022 年对乌克兰发动进攻时的损失还要大，”国际战略研究所所长巴斯蒂安·吉格里希在 2 月 13 日举行的一次在线活动中表示。

2月12日，该智库发表的一篇文章中，国防研究分析师约翰·米歇尔和迈克尔·杰尔斯塔德发现，可公开获取的图像显示，俄罗斯拥有多种翻新设施。其中包括10个中央坦克储备基地、至少37个混合装备和武器储存基地，以及至少12个火炮储存中心。

“因此，我们评估认为，俄罗斯能够以目前的消耗速度继续对乌克兰发动攻击2-3年，甚至更长时间，”他们写道。

然而，吉格里奇指出，克里姆林宫依靠翻新和储存的旧设备（通常相当老旧）的策略是有代价的。

“俄罗斯工厂生产的车辆大多并非全新车型。这样做，俄罗斯不得不牺牲质量来换取数量，”吉格里奇说道。

俄罗斯军方在征兵方面也遇到了困难。

这份新报告指出：“持续高企的伤亡率导致大多数部队兵力不足。补充军官短缺以及分配给新动员人员的训练时间有限，严重削弱了许多部队的战斗力。政府和行业官员关于为支持2023年部署在乌克兰的部队而进行的征兵和装备生产的乐观言论，似乎与现实不符。”

“尽管如此，现有部队和单位的人员数量得到了部分补充，并且通过 2022 年底进行的有限动员工作以及各种持续的征兵工作，成立了一些新的战时团，”该智库补充道。

事实上，路透社去年秋天公布的乌克兰截获的情报显示，俄罗斯应征入伍者抱怨训练不足、伤亡惨重和装备平庸。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。