The bond market rout is global. Here’s what’s driving it

The rise in bond yields is a global phenomenon, rooted in investors’ unease over unchecked government spending and intensified by bets that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer.

The US Treasury market gets the attention as the largest and most influential bond market in the world. But yields are also rising on government bonds in France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada and Australia.

Yields this week touched multi-year and multi-decade highs . Investors are selling bonds, pushing prices lower and yields higher. Yields rise when bond prices fall.

Bond yields set interest rates across the economy, and a steep rise in yields can raise the cost of mortgages, auto loans and student borrowing, making life less affordable.

“At this stage, the bond market is not signaling a crisis,” Kristian Kerr, head of macro strategy at LPL Financial, wrote in a note. “However, it is sending a warning that merits attention.”

Bond yields were lower Thursday. The bond market is taking a breather after a run up in yields to start the week. But investors say the factors keeping yields elevated are here to stay.

Economies across the globe are facing stickier inflation because of the surge in energy prices tied to the war with Iran. That is leading to fears that central banks may need to keep interest rates high – and in some cases consider raising them even higher – to tamp down the price pressures in their economies.

Kirill Kudryavtsev/AFP/Getty Images

Another important factor is the supply of bonds. As governments ramp up borrowing to fund war and increased defense spending, investors are demanding greater compensation (in the form of higher yields) to hold all that new debt.

And if inflation remains sticky, governments might introduce subsidies to help consumers deal with price pressures. That means more government spending, higher deficits, and more bonds, exacerbating the issues investors are concerned about.

“The global bond market is reacting to the potential danger that this is a prolonged crisis, and then governments have to spend more money,” Marko Papic, chief investment strategist at BCA Research, told CNN.

Papic said he thinks elevated uncertainty over the duration of the war is compounding nerves in the bond market. And relatively robust global economic growth is also pushing up yields.

The war is raising the price of money. That’s a problem for the global economy

In Europe, energy inflation concerns have roiled major economies. In the backdrop, there are nerves about fiscal health and a series of upcoming elections.

The 10-year yield in France this week hit its highest level since 2008. The bond market is signaling concern that the government’s proposed budget won’t help get government spending on a more sustainable path, noted Kerr at LPL Financial.

“European and global sovereign debt markets remain highly interconnected, and a material deterioration in confidence toward French debt could easily spill over into other countries with weaker fiscal profiles,” Kerr said in a note.

The UK 10-year yield this week hit its highest level since 2008, while the 30-year yield touched levels not seen since 1998. Yields are surging just as Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s tenure is getting started, signaling skepticism from bond investors that his government will be able to get the UK fiscal order in check.

Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

The bond market has tested the UK government repeatedly in the past. In 2022, former Prime Minister Liz Truss was forced out after 44 days in office, after the bond market revolted against plans for unfunded fiscal spending and tax cuts.

In Japan, the 10-year yield this week hit 3%, its highest level in 30 years. Japan’s yields have surged in recent years as the Bank of Japan has begun to raise interest rates after decades of ultra-loose monetary policy. Meanwhile, Japan has a massive debt burden, and investors are wary of policies that include spending and tax cuts, which could further swell borrowing needs.

In recent years, governments have ramped up spending, pushing up debt burdens. That has added to concerns about the amount of debt flooding the market. At the same time, bond yields are up sharply since the Covid pandemic after central banks hiked rates aggressively in 2022 to combat surging inflation.

There was a period of ultra-low interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis, but that era has come to an end, analysts say. Yields are returning to past levels. The difference is how much debt governments are in now. Higher yields with larger debt burdens makes paying off the debt more difficult and compounds the deteriorating fiscal situation.

“Governments are spending too much, and you can put fighting wars in that category,” Tom Tzitzouris, head of fixed income research at Baird Strategas, told CNN.

“We can’t avoid this other than ceasing spending, and even if the US were to pull back, the rest of the world has got to as well,” Tzitzouris said. “Governments have got to pull back their spending. That is the problem.”

Bond market turmoil comes in different flavors. What’s happening in markets now is a steady, sustained push higher in yields.

“Global investors are looking at a potent mix of higher inflation, higher interest rates and an unsustainable fiscal path,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN.

That’s happening while tech firms continue to issue debt to fund the buildout of AI infrastructure.

This rise in yields, investors say, is driven by a fundamental factor : a growing supply of bonds. That isn’t expected to abate anytime soon, unless governments rein in spending and raise taxes or tech companies scale back their plans for the AI buildout. Neither scenario seems immediately likely, suggesting that yields could remain elevated as investors continue to demand more compensation for lending money.

“You put all of those together, you’ve got a recipe for a global increase in interest rates, which means everything that touches credit in the major economies is about to get much more expensive,” Brusuelas said.

债券收益率上升是一种全球现象，其根源在于投资者对政府无节制支出的不安，并因押注各国央行可能会在更长时间内维持高利率而加剧。

美国国债市场作为全球规模最大、最具影响力的债券市场，备受关注。但法国、德国、意大利、英国、日本、加拿大和澳大利亚的政府债券收益率也在上升。

本周债券收益率触及多年和数十年来的高位。投资者抛售债券，导致债券价格下跌，收益率上升。债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。

债券收益率决定着整个经济体的利率，收益率的急剧上升会提高抵押贷款、汽车贷款和学生贷款的成本，使生活变得更加难以负担。

LPL Financial宏观策略主管克里斯蒂安·克尔在一份报告中写道：“现阶段，债券市场并未发出危机信号。然而，它发出的警告值得关注。”

周四债券收益率走低。债券市场在经历了本周初的收益率上涨后，目前正处于回调阶段。但投资者表示，推高收益率的因素仍将持续存在。

由于与伊朗战争相关的能源价格飙升，全球各国经济体正面临更加顽固的通胀。这引发了人们的担忧，即各国央行可能需要维持高利率，在某些情况下甚至考虑进一步提高利率，以抑制经济中的物价压力。

基里尔·库德里亚夫采夫/法新社/盖蒂图片社

另一个重要因素是债券供应量。随着各国政府加大借贷力度以资助战争和增加国防开支，投资者要求更高的回报（以更高的收益率形式）来持有所有这些新增债务。

如果通胀居高不下，政府可能会推出补贴来帮助消费者应对价格压力。这意味着政府支出增加、赤字上升、债券发行量上升，从而加剧投资者担忧的问题。

BCA Research 首席投资策略师 Marko Papic 告诉 CNN：“全球债券市场正在对这场危机可能旷日持久，导致各国政府不得不花费更多资金的潜在危险做出反应。”

帕皮奇表示，他认为战争持续时间的不确定性加剧了债券市场的紧张情绪。此外，相对强劲的全球经济增长也推高了收益率。

战争推高了货币价格。这对全球经济来说是个问题。

在欧洲，能源通胀担忧已令主要经济体陷入动荡。与此同时，财政状况和即将举行的一系列选举也令人们忧心忡忡。

本周法国10年期国债收益率触及2008年以来的最高水平。LPL Financial的克尔指出，债券市场发出信号，表明市场担忧政府提出的预算案无助于使政府支出走上更可持续的道路。

克尔在一份报告中表示：“欧洲和全球主权债务市场仍然高度相互关联，对法国债务信心的实质性恶化很容易蔓延到其他财政状况较弱的国家。”

本周英国10年期国债收益率触及2008年以来的最高水平，而30年期国债收益率则触及1998年以来的最高水平。收益率飙升正值首相安迪·伯纳姆任期伊始之际，这表明债券投资者对其政府能否控制住英国财政秩序持怀疑态度。

Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images

债券市场过去曾多次考验英国政府。2022年，时任首相利兹·特拉斯上任仅44天便被迫下台，原因是债券市场强烈反对她提出的无资金支持的财政支出和减税计划。

本周，日本10年期国债收益率触及3%，创30年来新高。近年来，随着日本央行在实施数十年超宽松货币政策后开始加息，日本国债收益率大幅攀升。与此同时，日本背负着巨额债务，投资者对包括支出和减税在内的政策持谨慎态度，因为这些政策可能会进一步推高借贷需求。

近年来，各国政府加大支出力度，推高了债务负担。这加剧了人们对市场债务过剩的担忧。与此同时，自新冠疫情爆发以来，各国央行为应对飙升的通胀，在2022年大幅加息，导致债券收益率大幅上升。

分析人士表示，2008年金融危机后曾出现过一段超低利率时期，但那个时代已经结束。收益率正在回落到危机前的水平。不同之处在于各国政府目前的债务规模。更高的收益率加上更大的债务负担，使得偿还债务更加困难，并加剧了本已恶化的财政状况。

“各国政府支出过多，而打仗也属于这一范畴，”贝尔德战略公司固定收益研究主管汤姆·齐祖里斯告诉 CNN。

“除了停止支出，我们别无选择，即使美国缩减开支，世界其他国家也必须跟进，”齐祖里斯说。“各国政府必须削减开支。这就是问题所在。”

债券市场动荡的形式多种多样。目前市场正在发生的是收益率持续稳步上升的趋势。

RSM US首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏拉斯告诉CNN：“全球投资者正在关注更高的通胀、更高的利率和不可持续的财政道路这三者交织的局面。”

与此同时，科技公司仍在继续发行债券，为人工智能基础设施的建设提供资金。

投资者表示，收益率上升的根本原因在于债券供应量不断增加。除非各国政府削减开支、提高税收，或者科技公司缩减人工智能部署计划，否则这种趋势预计短期内不会缓解。这两种情况短期内似乎都不太可能发生，这意味着随着投资者继续要求更高的贷款回报，收益率可能会维持在高位。

布鲁苏拉斯说：“把所有这些因素加在一起，就等于为全球利率上升埋下了伏笔，这意味着主要经济体中所有与信贷相关的事物都将变得更加昂贵。”