US says it’s clearing Hormuz traffic: Why are oil futures beyond $100?

Brent crude crosses $107 as Hormuz disruptions and Saudi pipeline shutdown threaten global oil supply.

Fuel prices are displayed on a digital board at a petrol station in London, UK [File: Leon Neal/Getty Images]

President Donald Trump says the United States is making progress in reopening the Strait of Hormuz and escorting more oil through the waterway, yet oil prices have jumped in recent days.

The recent attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi energy infrastructure have also pushed crude prices up, with Brent crude rising $3.21 to $107.82 a barrel.

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The apparent contradiction between US claims and surging oil prices shows the reality on the ground is complicated at best.

So, what do we know about shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, and where are oil prices headed?

What are the US, Iran and others claiming about the Strait of Hormuz?

Washington says traffic through Hormuz has been improving despite the two sides being in a diplomatic deadlock.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said 10 million barrels of oil per day, on average over the past week, were passing through Hormuz, adding that “we’re back to two-thirds or north of two-thirds of the previous flows.

“So the world oil markets are tighter than we’d like today, but they’re not overly tight,” Wright added, according to US media outlet Bloomberg News.

President Trump has made similar claims, stating that the US is in “total control” of the strait and asserting that its forces are escorting ships carrying millions of barrels of oil through the waterway, through which a fifth of global oil and gas passes.

Iran has, however, disputed the US claims. Tehran says it controls access to Hormuz and has warned ships against using routes it has not authorised. Last week, Iran announced a new restricted shipping zone around the crucial waterway.

Shipping data from tanker trackers also suggests traffic remains well below normal levels. Preliminary ship-tracking data shows vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz falling to single digits a day over the weekend, remaining well below the 10-day average of 14 a day, the Reuters news agency reported.

Reuters said a total of 14 vessels transited the waterway, with four exiting the Gulf and 10 entering it.

More than 100 vessels passed through the strait daily, carrying an estimated 20 million barrels of oil, before the US and Israel launched the war on Iran in February.

The data is preliminary and subject to updates, as some vessels navigate the passage with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off, meaning they are excluded from the official counts, Reuters added.

What is the latest with oil prices?

Oil prices jumped more than 3 percent on Monday after an Iranian ship was attacked on Sunday in the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline was damaged in a drone attack.

Brent crude rose $3.21 to $107.82 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained $3.17 to $103.22.

The rise came after Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline was temporarily shut by a drone attack originating from Iraq, according to Saudi officials.

Riyadh has been using the pipeline to export oil via the Red Sea amid the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Four percent of the global oil supply will be threatened if the pipeline remains shut.

A series of missile and drone attacks by Yemen’s Houthi group on southern Saudi Arabia in recent days has further added to the uncertainty about oil supply originating from the world’s largest oil producer.

On Tuesday, the Yemeni group hit civilian and economic sites in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran, injuring 73 people, among them women and children.

The assault on the kingdom marks a sharp escalation in Yemen’s long-running war, which flared up again in July after nearly four years of relative calm under a United Nations-brokered truce.

Why are oil prices climbing, despite US assurances?

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, says oil prices are likely to remain under upward pressure as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, despite US claims that it is clearing traffic through the waterway.

“Despite US claims to the contrary, Hormuz is not under its control, and oil is not flowing freely,” he said.

Beauchamp says passage through Hormuz remains severely limited and ships continue to face attacks, while Houthi attacks on infrastructure have added another source of concern for energy markets.

“Near-month futures continue to trade at a premium to the spot price, a recognition that disruption is expected to continue, ratcheting up the pressure on the global economy,” he added.

Early on Sunday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said a vessel was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting Hormuz.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Monday said it had intercepted and destroyed an advanced MQ-1 drone that was flying over the Strait of Hormuz.

“With no one in a hurry to talk, it seems that oil prices will continue to rise, and a return to March’s highs seems to be a matter of when, not if,” Beauchamp said.

A meeting in Oman between Gulf countries and Iran to discuss possible agreements on the Strait of Hormuz, which had been scheduled for Monday, was postponed, further delivering a blow to diplomatic overtures to end the six-month war.

Iran on Monday said the planned meeting was postponed by Saudi Arabia over the recent events in Yemen.

US Energy Secretary Wright also poured water over any hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough, saying “counting on a consensual agreement with Iran today is certainly not a good bet,” according to Bloomberg.

Meanwhile, Abdul Khalique, head of the Liverpool John Moores University Maritime Centre, said the Houthi group’s growing presence along Yemen’s western coast, next to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, was also a reason for a surge in oil prices.

“The Bab al-Mandeb strait is now largely under Houthi control,” Khalique told Al Jazeera, referring to the vital shipping route connecting Asia with Europe.

“Having already taken the port of Mocha and the islands of Hanish and Zuqar earlier in the week, Iran-aligned Houthi forces seized the strategically vital Perim (Mayyun) Island and the mainland town of Dhubab, giving them effective control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline.”

Khalique added that war risk insurance for Hormuz transits, which stood at about 0.25 percent of hull value before the war, has climbed as high as 3 to 10 percent of hull value, depending on the vessel and route.

“For a $100m tanker, that range translates to a war risk premium of $3m to $10m for a single transit, before cargo cover and freight costs are added on top,” he said.

“The US may hold substantial military control over the battlespace, but it has not restored the conditions needed for a resumption of normal commercial shipping, and that gap is precisely why oil prices continue to climb even as Washington declares victory.”

受霍尔木兹输油管道中断和沙特阿拉伯输油管道关闭威胁，布伦特原油价格突破每桶107美元。

英国伦敦一家加油站的电子显示屏上显示着燃油价格。[图片：Leon Neal/Getty Images]

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，美国在重新开放霍尔木兹海峡和护送更多石油通过该水道方面取得了进展，但近几天来油价却大幅上涨。

最近霍尔木兹海峡的航运和沙特能源基础设施遭到袭击，也推高了原油价格，布伦特原油价格上涨 3.21 美元，至每桶 107.82 美元。

伊拉克缴获用于袭击沙特石油管道的无人机发射平台（共3条，第1条）

列表 2/3：在美国战争中，有尊严的生活对许多伊朗家庭来说是一个“遥远的梦想”。

红海沿岸三国（共三国）眼睁睁看着胡塞武装占领曼德海峡

美国方面的说法与不断飙升的油价之间存在明显的矛盾，这表明实际情况充其量也只能说是复杂。

那么，我们对霍尔木兹海峡的航运情况了解多少？油价又将走向何方？

美国、伊朗和其他国家对霍尔木兹海峡提出了哪些主张？

华盛顿方面表示，尽管中美两国陷入外交僵局，但霍尔木兹海峡的交通状况已经有所改善。

美国能源部长克里斯·赖特周日表示，过去一周平均每天有 1000 万桶石油通过霍尔木兹海峡，并补充说，“我们已经恢复到之前流量的三分之二甚至更多。”

据美国媒体彭博新闻社报道，赖特补充说：“因此，目前世界石油市场供应比我们希望的要紧张，但还不算过于紧张。”

特朗普总统也曾发表过类似的说法，声称美国“完全控制”了海峡，并断言其军队正在护送载有数百万桶石油的船只通过这条水道，全球五分之一的石油和天然气都要经过这里。

然而，伊朗否认了美国的说法。德黑兰方面表示，伊朗控制着霍尔木兹海峡的通行，并警告船只不要使用未经其授权的航线。上周，伊朗宣布在这条重要水道周围设立新的禁航区。

油轮追踪数据显示，航运流量仍远低于正常水平。路透社报道称，初步船舶追踪数据显示，周末期间通过霍尔木兹海峡的船舶数量降至每天个位数，远低于过去10天平均每天14艘的水平。

路透社称，共有 14 艘船只通过了这条水道，其中 4 艘驶出海湾，10 艘驶入海湾。

在美国和以色列于 2 月对伊朗发动战争之前，每天有 100 多艘船只通过该海峡，运载估计 2000 万桶石油。

路透社补充说，这些数据是初步的，可能会进行更新，因为一些船只在航行时关闭了自动识别系统应答器，这意味着它们不被计入官方统计数据。

石油价格最新走势如何？

周一，伊朗一艘船只周日在霍尔木兹海峡遭到袭击，沙特阿拉伯至关重要的东西输油管道在无人机袭击中受损，受此影响，油价上涨超过3%。

布伦特原油上涨 3.21 美元，至每桶 107.82 美元，而美国西德克萨斯中质原油上涨 3.17 美元，至每桶 103.22 美元。

据沙特官员称，沙特阿拉伯的东西石油管道因伊拉克发动的无人机袭击而暂时关闭，随后油价上涨。

在伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡期间，利雅得一直利用这条输油管道经红海出口石油。如果这条管道继续关闭，全球4%的石油供应将受到威胁。

也门胡塞武装近日对沙特阿拉伯南部发动了一系列导弹和无人机袭击，进一步加剧了世界最大石油生产国沙特阿拉伯的石油供应不确定性。

周二，也门武装组织袭击了艾卜哈、哈米斯穆沙伊特、吉赞和纳季兰等城市的平民和经济目标，造成 73 人受伤，其中包括妇女和儿童。

对也门王国的袭击标志着也门长期战争的急剧升级。在联合国斡旋下，也门经历了近四年的相对平静，但这场战争在7月份再次爆发。

尽管美国一再保证，油价为何仍在上涨？

IG集团首席市场分析师克里斯·比彻姆表示，尽管美国声称正在清理霍尔木兹海峡的交通，但由于该海峡的混乱仍在持续，油价可能仍将面临上行压力。

“尽管美国声称情况并非如此，但霍尔木兹海峡并不在美国的控制之下，石油也没有自由流动，”他说。

博尚表示，霍尔木兹海峡的通行仍然受到严重限制，船只继续面临袭击，而胡塞武装对基础设施的袭击又给能源市场增添了另一个担忧。

他补充说：“近月期货价格继续高于现货价格，这表明市场预期市场动荡将持续，从而加剧全球经济的压力。”

周日清晨，英国海事贸易运营中心表示，一艘船只在穿越霍尔木兹海峡时被不明飞行物击中。

与此同时，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队周一表示，他们拦截并摧毁了一架在霍尔木兹海峡上空飞行的先进MQ-1无人机。

“由于没有人急于发表意见，油价似乎将继续上涨，回到三月份的高点似乎只是时间问题，而不是会不会发生的问题，”博尚说。

原定于周一在阿曼举行的海湾国家与伊朗就霍尔木兹海峡可能达成的协议进行磋商的会议被推迟，这进一步打击了旨在结束这场持续六个月战争的外交努力。

伊朗周一表示，原定举行的会晤因也门近期发生的事件而被沙特阿拉伯推迟。

据彭博社报道，美国能源部长赖特也浇灭了任何外交突破的希望，称“指望今天与伊朗达成共识肯定不是一个好主意”。

与此同时，利物浦约翰摩尔斯大学海事中心负责人阿卜杜勒·哈利克表示，胡塞武装在也门西海岸曼德海峡附近的势力日益壮大，这也是油价飙升的原因之一。

“曼德海峡现在基本上处于胡塞武装的控制之下，”哈利克告诉半岛电视台，他指的是连接亚洲和欧洲的重要航运路线。

“本周早些时候，伊朗支持的胡塞武装已经占领了摩卡港以及哈尼什岛和祖卡尔岛，随后又夺取了具有重要战略意义的佩里姆岛（马云岛）和大陆城镇杜巴布，从而有效地控制了也门的整个红海沿岸。”

哈利克补充说，霍尔木兹海峡过境的战争风险保险在战前约为船体价值的 0.25%，现在已攀升至船体价值的 3% 至 10%，具体取决于船舶和航线。

他说：“对于一艘价值 1 亿美元的油轮来说，这样的航程意味着单次航行就要承担 300 万至 1000 万美元的战争风险溢价，这还不包括货物保险和运费。”

“美国可能对战场拥有相当大的军事控制权，但它尚未恢复正常商业航运所需的条件，而正是这种差距导致即使华盛顿宣布胜利，油价仍然持续攀升。”