Sweden election is too close to call as far right loses ground

Opposition bloc leads in tight Swedish election with 95% counted.

Centre-left opposition bloc leads in Swedish vote, exit poll shows

Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc has held a narrow lead as the far-right party saw its support slip, with about 95 percent of the districts counted.

The Swedish Election Authority reported on Monday that the four opposition parties were projected to hold 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, called the Riksdag, while the remaining 173 would go to four parties that make up or support the current conservative-led government.

list 1 of 3 Photos: Large Oslo crowd bids farewell to Norway’s King Harald V

list 2 of 3 Multicultural Malmo: Swedish city loathed by far right braces for election

list 3 of 3 Sweden’s centre-left leads by three seats as vote counting continues

Results may not be clear until early votes and overseas ballots are counted on Wednesday. If the left-leaning bloc emerges victorious, it could take even longer to form a government because of ideological tensions among its parties.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is seeking a second term and has been leading the country since 2022 with a centre-right coalition that relies on the Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots. He could remain in office if the left-wing bloc wins its thin majority but fails to form a government.

The Sweden Democrats saw an unexpected drop in support, losing three percentage points compared with the 2022 general election, slipping from 20.5 percent to 17.5 percent. This marked the first time the far-right party suffered a loss in voter backing since it entered parliament in 2010.

Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats held onto first place, but a 28.1 percent share registered as one of their worst performances in more than 100 years, complicating any bid to assemble a working majority.

Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson (C) speaks during the Moderates’ election night watch party in Stockholm, Sweden, 13 September 2026 [Christine Olsson/Sweden Out/EPA]

While the result appears somewhat out of step with recent far-right gains across parts of Europe, including Germany and Italy, the Sweden Democrats remain firmly entrenched as a dominant force in parliament.

The dip in support could be tied to changing voter priorities. In the past, many people voted for the far right, “simply because they liked their stance on refugees”, without necessarily agreeing with other policy positions, Anders Sannerstedt, a political scientist at Lund University, told AFP.

Even with a reduced vote share, the Sweden Democrats retain substantial leverage.

A closely divided legislature leaves any future government with a fragile working margin, ensuring the party remains an unavoidable force in parliament.

More broadly, the Sweden Democrats have already rewritten the boundaries of Swedish politics. Over the past decade, its once-fringe demands for strict asylum caps, easier deportations and tougher policing have been absorbed into the mainstream, with both the centre-right coalition and the Social Democrats shifting rightward to match public sentiment.

在瑞典大选中，反对派联盟在95%的选票统计完毕后领先，选情胶着。

出口民调显示，瑞典中左翼反对派联盟在选举中领先

瑞典中左翼反对派联盟保持着微弱的领先优势，而极右翼政党的支持率则有所下滑，目前已统计了约 95% 的选区。

瑞典选举委员会周一报告称，预计四个反对党将在拥有 349 个席位的议会（瑞典语：Riksdag）中获得 176 个席位，而剩余的 173 个席位将分配给组成或支持当前保守党领导的政府的四个政党。

图1/3：奥斯陆民众向挪威国王哈拉尔五世告别。

列表 2/3：多元文化马尔默：瑞典城市马尔默饱受极右翼分子憎恨，正为选举做准备

瑞典中左翼政党在计票过程中领先三席（名单3/3）

选举结果可能要等到周三清点完提前投票和海外选票后才能明朗。如果左翼阵营最终获胜，由于各党派之间存在意识形态分歧，组建政府可能需要更长时间。

首相乌尔夫·克里斯特松正在寻求连任，自2022年以来，他一直领导着一个以瑞典民主党为核心的中右翼联盟，而瑞典民主党是一个具有新纳粹背景的政党。如果左翼联盟赢得微弱多数席位但未能组建政府，克里斯特松仍有可能继续留任。

瑞典民主党的支持率意外下滑，与2022年大选相比下降了3个百分点，从20.5%跌至17.5%。这是该极右翼政党自2010年进入议会以来首次遭遇选民支持率下降。

玛格达莱娜·安德森领导的社会民主党保住了第一的位置，但28.1%的得票率是该党100多年来最差的成绩之一，这使得该党组建多数派的努力变得更加复杂。

2026年9月13日，瑞典斯德哥尔摩，温和党领袖乌尔夫·克里斯特松（中）在温和党选举之夜守夜派对上发表讲话。[Christine Olsson/Sweden Out/EPA]

尽管这一结果似乎与近期欧洲部分地区（包括德国和意大利）极右势力的崛起有些不符，但瑞典民主党仍然牢牢占据着议会的主导地位。

支持率下降可能与选民优先事项的改变有关。隆德大学政治学家安德斯·桑纳斯泰特告诉法新社，过去许多人投票给极右翼，“仅仅是因为他们喜欢极右翼在难民问题上的立场”，而未必认同其其他政策立场。

即使得票率有所下降，瑞典民主党仍然拥有相当大的影响力。

两党势均力敌的立法机构使得任何未来的政府都只有脆弱的执政余地，从而确保该党在议会中仍然是一股不可忽视的力量。

更广泛地说，瑞典民主党已经重塑了瑞典政治的格局。过去十年间，该党曾经边缘化的诉求——例如严格的庇护人数上限、更宽松的遣返程序和更严厉的警务——已被主流政治所吸收，中右翼联盟和社会民主党都向右倾斜以迎合民意。