US assesses China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027

WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) — China does not currently plan to invade Taiwan in 2027 and seeks to control the island without the use of force, the U.S. intelligence community said on Wednesday, striking a measured tone on one of the world’s biggest potential flashpoints .

The assessment in the intelligence agencies’ annual report on global threats comes as Beijing has stepped up pressure on Taiwan with frequent military drills, even as U.S. President Donald Trump has played down the risk of Chinese military action while he is in office.

The Pentagon late last year said the U.S. military believed China was preparing to be able to win a fight for Taiwan by 2027, the centenary of the founding of its People’s Liberation Army, and was refining options to take Taiwan by “brute force” if needed.

“China, despite its threat to use force to compel unification if necessary and to counter what it sees as a U.S. attempt to use Taiwan to undermine China’s rise, prefers to achieve unification without the use of force, if possible,” the U.S. intelligence agencies said in the report.

The U.S. “assesses that Chinese leaders do not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline for achieving unification,” the report said.

It reiterated previous views that the PLA was making “steady but uneven” progress on capabilities it could use to capture the democratically governed island.

China’s embassy in Washington did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

Taiwan’s de facto embassy in Washington also did not respond immediately.

Trump, who has repeatedly touted his “great relationship” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, has downplayed the threat of the Chinese drills around Taiwan and said Xi told him he will not attack Taiwan while the U.S. president is in office — something Beijing has never confirmed.

China views Taiwan as its own territory and has never renounced the use of force to take the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, saying only the island’s people can decide their future.

Pressure on Japan to intensify

Despite concerns in the U.S. and abroad about Trump’s inclination to back Taiwan, his administration in December unveiled a record $11 billion sale of weapons for the island, angering Beijing, which says such arms deals must end.

Nonetheless, some Japanese officials have worried Trump may be prepared to soften support for Taiwan in pursuit of a trade accord with China, a move they fear will embolden Beijing and spark conflict in an increasingly militarized East Asia.

Tokyo had been unnerved by muted U.S. rhetorical support for Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi after her remarks last year that a hypothetical Chinese attack on Taiwan could bring about a Japanese military response. Trump reportedly told her privately not to escalate the ensuing diplomatic row with Beijing.

In Wednesday’s report, the U.S. intelligence agencies called Takaichi’s remarks on Taiwan a “significant shift” for a Japanese leader, a framing that is likely to irk Tokyo just a day ahead of a delicate visit by her to the White House. Takaichi has maintained her stance was consistent with Japan’s longstanding policy.

“China is employing multidomain coercive pressure that probably will intensify through 2026, aimed both at punishing Japan and deterring other countries from making similar statements about their potential involvement in a Taiwan crisis,” the report said.

(Reporting by Michael Martina, Patricia Zengerle and David Brunnstrom; Editing by Franklin Paul, Rod Nickel)

华盛顿，3月18日（路透社）——美国情报界周三表示，中国目前没有计划在2027年入侵台湾，并寻求在不使用武力的情况下控制该岛。这一表态对全球最大的潜在冲突点之一表达了谨慎的态度。

情报机构发布的年度全球威胁报告中做出的这项评估正值北京通过频繁的军事演习加大对台湾的压力之际，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在其任期内一直淡化中国采取军事行动的风险。

五角大楼去年底表示，美军认为中国正在准备在2027年（中国人民解放军成立一百周年）之前赢得对台战争，并且正在完善必要时以“武力”夺取台湾的方案。

美国情报机构在报告中表示：“尽管中国威胁称，如有必要，将使用武力强制统一，并反击其认为美国企图利用台湾破坏中国崛起的行为，但中国更倾向于尽可能在不使用武力的情况下实现统一。”

报告称，美国“评估认为，中国领导人目前没有计划在 2027 年入侵台湾，也没有实现统一的固定时间表”。

它重申了之前的观点，即解放军在夺取这个民主治理岛屿的能力方面取得了“稳步但不均衡”的进展。

中国驻华盛顿大使馆尚未对此事作出回应。

台湾驻华盛顿的实际大使馆也未立即作出回应。

特朗普一再吹嘘他与中国领导人习近平的“良好关系”，淡化了中国在台湾附近举行的军事演习的威胁，并表示习近平告诉他，只要美国总统在任，就不会攻击台湾——北京方面从未证实过这一点。

中国视台湾为其领土的一部分，从未放弃使用武力收复台湾。台湾拒绝接受北京的主权声索，并表示只有岛民才能决定自己的未来。

对日本的压力加大

尽管美国和国外都对特朗普倾向于支持台湾表示担忧，但他的政府在 12 月宣布了一项创纪录的 110 亿美元对台军售计划，这激怒了北京，北京表示此类军售必须停止。

尽管如此，一些日本官员担心，特朗普为了与中国达成贸易协议，可能会软化对台湾的支持，他们担心此举会助长北京的气焰，并在日益军事化的东亚引发冲突。

去年，日本首相高市早苗曾表示，如果中国胆敢攻击台湾，日本可能会采取军事回应。此后，美国对高市早苗的公开支持力度有所减弱，这令东京感到不安。据报道，特朗普曾私下告诫高市早苗，不要加剧与北京之间的外交争端。

美国情报机构在周三的报告中称，高市千寻关于台湾的言论对一位日本领导人而言是“重大转变”，这种说法很可能在她即将对白宫进行敏感访问的前一天激怒东京。高市千寻则坚称，她的立场与日本长期以来的政策是一致的。

报告称：“中国正在实施多领域的胁迫压力，这种压力可能会在2026年之前加剧，其目的既是惩罚日本，也是阻止其他国家就其可能介入台湾危机发表类似声明。”

（迈克尔·马蒂纳、帕特里夏·曾格尔和大卫·布伦斯特罗姆报道；富兰克林·保罗、罗德·尼克尔编辑）