Russia will try NATO regardless of Ukraine peace deal, experts warn

MILAN — As Ukraine weighs a U.S.-imposed peace deal deemed unfavorable to Kyiv, Russia could be ready to challenge NATO again soon after the weapons go silent, experts warned at a Baltic security conference last week.

“You might not choose to have a war with the Russians, but the Russians are certainly choosing to prepare to conduct a war against you,” George Barros, lead analyst on Russia and geospatial intelligence at the Institute for the Study of War, said during a panel at the Defending the Baltics 2025 conference. “We’re watching every day how they’re preparing their economy, operational concepts and their military thinking about the next war.”

Barros estimated NATO would have 12 months to prepare for fresh provocations after the end of fighting in Ukraine. “We have a lot less time than some would argue.”

A key point made by delegates throughout the conference, which took place in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, Nov. 17-18, was that future Russian aggression would unlikely resemble the 2022 assault on Ukraine. Rather, it is expected to be non-traditional or hybrid, with tactics including cyber-attacks, sabotage, disinformation campaigns and destabilizing campaigns in NATO countries.

At the same time, Western intelligence services have warned for years that Moscow is also trying to boost its traditional military capabilities, putting Russia in a position to threaten the alliance by the turn of the decade.

Last month, the Ukrainian open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight published internal documents from Russian tank manufacturer Uralvagonzavod that reportedly included a goal of increasing T-90 battle tank production by 80 % by 2028.

A subsequent assessment by the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War argued the tank figures indicate an intention to rearm and pose a long-term threat to NATO after the war in Ukraine.

Sandis Šraders, director for defense technology at Riga Technical University who has studied autocratic regimes, told conference attendees in Vilnius any date expectations for a re-armed Russia miss a crucial point. “If you give them the deadline, they will do it before,” he said. “I would never wait for somebody to be ready and only then attack.”

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——专家上周在波罗的海安全会议上警告说，乌克兰正在权衡一项被认为对基辅不利的美国强加的和平协议，一旦武器停止使用，俄罗斯可能很快就会再次挑战北约。

“你或许不会选择与俄罗斯开战，但俄罗斯人肯定正在为与你开战做准备，”战争研究所俄罗斯和地理空间情报首席分析师乔治·巴罗斯在“保卫波罗的海2025”会议的一个小组讨论会上表示。“我们每天都在关注他们如何为下一场战争做好经济准备、制定作战概念和军事策略。”

巴罗斯估计，乌克兰战事结束后，北约将有12个月的时间来应对新的挑衅。“我们的时间比一些人认为的要少得多。”

在11月17日至18日于立陶宛首都维尔纽斯举行的会议上，与会代表反复强调的一个关键点是，俄罗斯未来的侵略行为不太可能类似于2022年对乌克兰的袭击。相反，预计其侵略行为将是非传统的或混合型的，其策略包括网络攻击、破坏、虚假信息宣传以及在北约国家开展破坏稳定的行动。

与此同时，西方情报机构多年来一直警告说，莫斯科也在试图增强其传统军事能力，使俄罗斯有能力在本十年末威胁到美苏联盟。

上个月，乌克兰开源情报组织 Frontelligence Insight 公布了俄罗斯坦克制造商乌拉尔车辆厂的内部文件，据报道，这些文件包含到 2028 年将 T-90 主战坦克产量提高 80% 的目标。

美国战争研究所随后进行的一项评估认为，坦克数量表明乌克兰有意重新武装，并在乌克兰战争结束后对北约构成长期威胁。

里加理工大学国防技术主任桑迪斯·什拉德斯（Sandis Šraders）曾研究过专制政权，他在维尔纽斯的一次会议上告诉与会者，任何关于俄罗斯重新武装的日期预期都忽略了一个关键点。“如果你给他们设定最后期限，他们肯定会提前行动，”他说。“我绝不会等到对方准备就绪才发动攻击。”

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。